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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Troll Under The Data Center

Bitcoin Letter

The company now known as MARA Holdings (MARA) started life as Marathon Patent Group, a firm whose primary business was buying up patents and suing technology companies for infringement.

The polite term for this is "non-practicing entity." The impolite term, the one critics used loudly and in public filings, is patent troll.

When that model fizzled around 2018, management pivoted to Bitcoin (BTC) mining. When crypto went mainstream, they rebranded again. Now they're pivoting to AI infrastructure.

Three corporate identities in 15 years. The market has every right to be skeptical, and I understand the instinct completely.

The near-term numbers won't talk you out of that skepticism. Q4 2025 revenue came in at approximately $202 million, down 6%, missing analyst expectations by nearly $50 million.

Daily Bitcoin production fell from 27.1 coins to 21.9, which stings when you consider that the company simultaneously spent money growing its computing power by 25%. More muscle, fewer results.

This is the permanent condition of post-halving Bitcoin mining. Every four years, the block reward gets cut in half, the whole industry keeps piling in anyway, and everyone produces less for more.

G&A expenses ballooned from approximately $19 million to $57 million in a single year, and the company swung from earnings of $1.24 per diluted share to a loss of $4.52.

None of this is a mystery. It's the math of a business model with a structural ceiling.

Which brings us to why the AI pivot is worth taking seriously, even coming from a company with this particular résumé.

Last August, MARA paid approximately $168 million for a 64% stake in Exaion, a computing infrastructure operator that was originally built inside Électricité de France, the French state utility with roughly $122 billion in annual revenues.

EDF didn't sell because it needed the money. It retained a minority stake, stayed on as a paying customer, and sat through a French government regulatory review that scrutinized the deal on national sovereignty grounds. It cleared.

Xavier Niel's NJJ Capital, a name that commands genuine respect in European technology circles, simultaneously took a stake in MARA France as part of the broader arrangement. These are not investors who chase press releases.

The strategic logic is straightforward once you strip away the crypto branding.

MARA already controls the two things AI infrastructure desperately needs and can't conjure overnight: cheap power and physical data center capacity.

Through a separate joint venture with Starwood Capital Group's SDV, it's building toward hyperscale cloud customers using a modular approach that deploys capital in stages rather than in the single massive bets that hyperscalers make.

Faster time to revenue, less capital sitting idle. The company is targeting 1 gigawatt of IT capacity in the near term and says early tenant demand has been strong.

The valuation makes the case on its own.

The forward P/E sits at a multiyear low of 17.77, priced as if the mining business is the whole story. The BTC treasury currently holds approximately 38,689 coins worth roughly $2.9 billion, against a market cap that has been trading in the same neighborhood.

At that math, the Exaion stake, the Starwood joint venture, and 66 exahashes of operating infrastructure are effectively priced at zero.

Obviously, there are risks. BTC sensitivity hasn't gone away, cost discipline is still wanting, and management has a habit of reinventing itself faster than it delivers.

But EDF, Starwood, Niel, and French regulators, who could have simply said no, have all looked at this company and decided to stay in the room.

For a firm that once made its living filing lawsuits, that may be the most valuable intellectual property it has ever produced.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2026-04-17 13:00:552026-04-24 13:38:36The Troll Under The Data Center
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Ether Way, You're In

Bitcoin Letter

In 1887, two American physicists named Michelson and Morley ran what became the most famous failed experiment in the history of science.

They were trying to detect "luminiferous ether," the invisible medium scientists had believed for centuries carried light waves through the universe.

They found nothing. Ether didn't exist. The null result helped lay the groundwork for Einstein's theory of special relativity, and the concept was buried for good.

Fast forward to 2013: a 19-year-old Russian-Canadian programmer named Vitalik Buterin was scrolling through a Wikipedia list of science fiction terms looking for a name for his new blockchain.

He landed on "Ethereum" because it contained the word "ether," and he liked the idea of his network being the invisible, imperceptible medium that everything else ran on. A dead scientific theory, resurrected as the world's second-largest cryptocurrency.

And now Wall Street is trying to own a piece of it without touching it.

That last part is where ETHA comes in. The iShares Ethereum Trust ETF is BlackRock's answer to investors who want Ether exposure without the crypto wallet, the seed phrase, and the existential dread of accidentally sending $50,000 to the wrong address on an irreversible blockchain.

Launched in June 2024, it now holds $6.86 billion in net assets, custodied entirely through Coinbase Prime, the institutional arm of Coinbase Global (COIN).

One custodian, one exchange, for the entirety of the second-largest cryptocurrency ETF on the market.

ETHA is a Delaware Statutory Trust that holds physical Ether as its sole asset. When you buy shares, you own a fractional claim on that Ether.

You cannot use it to transact on a blockchain or deploy decentralized applications the way direct ETH-USD ownership would allow.

The tradeoff is regulatory compliance, brokerage account accessibility, and no seed phrase to lose.

The expense ratio is 0.25%, shares are created and redeemed in batches of 40,000 by authorized participants, and there's no leverage or derivatives involved.

Now the part that matters for active investors. Since inception, ETHA has returned 49.17% against ETH-USD's 33.52%. That gap looks like alpha. It isn't.

ETHA has been trading at a premium to its NAV, currently 0.33% as of mid-April, driven by institutional demand ahead of the "Glamsterdam Hard Fork," a technical upgrade to the Ethereum network slated for the first half of 2026 aimed at improving throughput and efficiency. That premium ran as high as 0.60% earlier this year before news of potential delays trimmed it back.

When Ether drops and recovers, institutional short-sellers who hedged via ETHA rush to cover, creating a squeeze that further inflates the ETF's price relative to spot.

Historically, ETHA has traded at a discount more often than at a premium; 130 discount days versus 117 premium days in 2025 alone.

Worth knowing alongside ETHA is its newer sibling, ETHB, the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF launched two months ago.

Where ETHA simply tracks Ether's price, ETHB employs a staking strategy to generate yield and is designed to pay distributions, though none have started yet.

Think of it loosely as the difference between holding a stock outright and lending it out for income.

For those who want passive income layered on top of Ether exposure, ETHB is the more interesting instrument.

There's also the trading hours gap. Ether runs 24/7. NASDAQ doesn't.

If Ether surges over a weekend and holds, ETHA gaps up at Monday's open. If it surges and fades before the bell, ETHA's chart looks like nothing happened.

These distortions make short-window performance comparisons between the two almost meaningless.

The annualized volatility is 73%, conservative by crypto standards, given Ether's standing as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

The Glamsterdam upgrade is the near-term catalyst.

If it executes on schedule, the institutional demand inflating that NAV premium has room to build further. If delays keep accumulating, expect ETHA to revert toward raw ETH-USD performance.

Either way, Ether's investment case ultimately rests on the health of the Ethereum network itself; the same invisible infrastructure Buterin named after a substance that never existed.

The medieval scientists were wrong about ether. Buterin's version, at least, has a market cap.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2026-04-16 13:00:392026-04-21 10:11:01Ether Way, You're In
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

April 16, 2026

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 16, 2026
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THIS BIOTECH MIGHT HAVE CRACKED THE UNDRUGGABLE CODE)

(RVMD), (MRK)

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