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Douglas Davenport

How Artificial Intelligence Will Enhance or Destroy Your Portfolio

Tech Letter

Anti-AI physicist Professor Stephen Hawking was a staunch supporter of preserving human interests against the future existential threat from machines and artificial intelligence (AI).

He was diagnosed with motor neuron disease, more commonly known as Lou Gehrig's disease, in 1963 at the age of 21 and sadly passed away March 14, 2018, at the age of 76.

Famed for his work on black holes, Professor Hawking represented the human quest to maintain its superiority against quickly advancing artificial acculturation.

His passing is a huge loss for mankind as his voice was a deterrent to AI's relentless march to supremacy. He was one of the few who had the authority to opine on these issues. Gone is a voice of reason.

Critics have argued that living with AI poses a red alert threat to privacy, security, and society as a whole. Unfortunately, those most credible and knowledgeable about AI are tech firms. They have shown that policing themselves on this front is remarkably unproductive.

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook (FB), has labeled naysayers as irresponsible and dismissed the threat. After failing to prevent Russian interference in the last election, he is exhibiting the same defensive posture translating into a de facto admission of guilt. His track record of shirking accountability is becoming a trend.

Share prices will materially nosedive if AI is stonewalled and development stunted. Many CEOs who stake careers on doubling or tripling down on AI cannot see it die out. There is too much money to lose.

The world will see major improvements in the quality of life in the next 10 years. But there is another side of the coin in which Zuckerberg and company refuse to delve into the dark side of technology.

Defective Amazon (AMZN) Alexa has been producing unexplained laughter because of a mistaken command to start laughing. Despite avoiding calamity, these small events show the magnitude of potential chaos capable of haywire AI functions. If one day, a user attempts to order a box of tissues and Alexa burns down the house, who is liable?

Tesla's (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has shared his anxiety about robots flipping the script on humans. Elon acknowledges that AI and autonomous vehicles are important factors in the battle for new technology. The winner is yet to be determined as China has bet the ranch with unlimited resources from Chairman Xi.

Musk has hinted that robots and humans could merge into one species in the future. Is this the next point of competition among tech companies? The future is murky at best.

Bill Gates noted that robots should be taxed like humans. This reflects the bubble in which the ultra-elite reside. This comment implies that humans and robots are on the same level and shows a severe lack of empathy for the 40% of working Americans who will be replaced by machines over the next 10 years.

The West is comprised of a deeply hierarchical system of winners and losers. Hawking's premise that evolution has inbuilt greed can be found in the underpinnings of America's economic miracle.

Wall Street has bred a culture that is entirely self-serving regardless of the bigger system in which it finds itself.

Most of us are participating in this perpetual money game chase because our system treats it as a natural part of life. AI will help more people do well in this paper chase to the detriment of the majority.

Quarterly earnings performance is paramount for CEOs. Return value back to shareholders or face the sack in the morning. It's impossible to convince anyone that America's capitalist model is deteriorating in the greatest bull market of all time.

Wall Street has an insatiable hunger for cutting-edge technology from companies that sequentially beat earnings and raise guidance. Flourishing technology companies enrich the participants creating a Teflon-like resistance to downside market risk.

The issue with Professor Hawking's work is that his time frame is too far in the future. Professor Hawking was probably correct, but it will take 25 years to prove it.

The world is quickly changing as science fiction becomes reality. The year 2019 will signal the real beginning of AI in tangible form when autonomous fleets flood main streets.

People on Wall Street are a product of the system in place and earn a tremendous amount of money because they proficiently execute a specialized job. Traders are busy focusing on how to move ahead of the next guy.

Firms building autonomous cars are free to operate as is. Hyper-accelerating technology spurs on the development of AI, machine learning and enhanced algorithms. Record profits will topple and investors will funnel investments back into an even narrower grouping of technology stocks.

Professor Hawking said we need to explore our technological capabilities to the fullest in order to avoid extinction. In 2018, exploring these new capabilities still equals monetizing through the medium of products and services.

This is all bullish for equities as the leading companies associated with AI will not be subject to any imminent regulation, blowback or government intervention.

The only solution is keeping companies accountable by a function of law or creating a third-party task force to regulate AI.

In 2018, the thought of overseeing robots sounds crazy. However, by 2019, it might be as normal as uncontrollable laughter from your smart home.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/hawking-1-e1521135518277.jpg 226 255 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-10-30 01:06:472018-10-29 19:02:25How Artificial Intelligence Will Enhance or Destroy Your Portfolio
MHFTF

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for October 29, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
October 29, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) IBM Takes Over Red Hat (RHT) for $33 Billion, the third largest merger in history. It’s a little too late for Big Blue as the stock falls on the news. Click here.

2) Apple Earnings Are Out on Thursday, the big number of the month. Expectations are high. They’ll probably announce a new Mac and iPad. Click here.

3) Stocks Hit a Two-Year Valuation Low, as retail investors dump stocks on a massive scale. Multiples for next year’s earnings have plunged from 18.32 to 15.55. Sounds like a deal to me! Click here.

4) Tesla Stock Soars Again, in the wake of the first profit in two years, as Elon Musk says his $20 million fine is “worth it”. Coming back from Lake Tahoe this weekend I saw over a dozen trucks delivering brand new Tesla 3’s east. Click here.

5) Germany’s Angela Merkel Steps Down as Party Head, but remains as chancellor, sending the Euro (FXE) crashing and the US dollar (UUP) soaring. As if we needed more instability. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE COMING 2018 REPLAY),

(TLT), (SPY), (VIX), (VXX), (AAPL),

(FB), (AMZN), (NFLX), (TESLA),

(A COW-BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)

(THE DIGITAL NOMAD ISSUE)

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-29 14:50:572018-10-29 14:51:20Mad Hedge Hot Tips for October 29, 2018
MHFTF

Trade Alert - (TLT) October 29, 2018 BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-29 13:48:372018-10-29 13:55:55Trade Alert - (TLT) October 29, 2018 BUY
MHFTF

Trade Alert - (AMZN) October 29, 2018 BUY

Tech Alert, Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-29 12:49:492018-10-29 14:12:33Trade Alert - (AMZN) October 29, 2018 BUY
MHFTF

Trade Alert - (AAPL) October 29, 2018 TAKE PROFITS

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-29 11:24:052018-10-29 14:13:43Trade Alert - (AAPL) October 29, 2018 TAKE PROFITS
MHFTF

October 29, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-29 08:51:342018-10-29 08:51:34October 29, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
MHFTF

October 29, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 29, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE COMING 2018 REPLAY),
(TLT), (SPY), (VIX), (VXX), (AAPL),
(FB), (AMZN), (NFLX), (TESLA),
(A COW-BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-29 01:08:132018-10-29 00:07:52October 29, 2018
MHFTF

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or the Coming 2018 Replay

Diary, Newsletter

If you missed 2018, you get to do it all over again. That’s what the major indexes are offering us after giving up all of this year’s gains, and then some.

We go into the coming week with markets giving their most oversold readings since the popping of the 2000 Dotcom bubble and the 1987 crash. Markets are shouting imminent recession loud and clear.

Except that markets have discounted 13 out of the last six recessions and it is currently discounting one of those non-recessions.

Here is my calendar of upcoming potential market bottoms. Please note that all are within the next seven trading days.

October 29-reversal day of the Friday selloff.
October 31-rebalancing of funds will require a large amount of equity buying for month end. Facebook (FB) reports.
November 1-the Apple (AAPL) earnings are out.
November 7-the midterm elections.

There is no way that we are going into a recession and a bear market now. That is 2019 business. Bear markets don’t begin with real interest rates at zero which they are at now (3.1% ten-year Treasury yield – 3.1% inflation rate = zero). And they may well still be at zero in a year (4% ten-year Treasury yield – 4% inflation rate= zero).

Earnings are still great in the technology area, 50% of the national total. The Dotcom market top was characterized by the collection of vast numbers of eyeballs, not actual cash.

This means that you want to buy the big dips. This is the best entry point for blue-chip technology stocks since 2015. With a price earnings multiple now at 14.9 times 2019 earnings, stocks have given up half the valuation gains since the 2009 market bottom IN A MONTH!

Global trade is collapsing. There is no doubt that businesses massively pulled forward orders to beat the administration’s punitive import duties, thus artificially boosting the Q3 GDP numbers.

The chickens will come to roost in Q1 2019 which is what the stock market may be screaming at us right now with its nightmarish price action.

The big print of the week was the Q3 GDP at 3.5%, down substantially from the 4.2% figure for Q2. That may be the last hot number we see for many years as the tax cuts and spending burst wear off. Next year we return to the long-term average of 2.5%...I hope. If I’m wrong we’ll see zero growth in 2019.

Tesla (TSLA) announced a profit for the first time since 2016, sending the shares soaring. The stock is back up to the level that prevailed before Elon Musk’s last nervous breakdown. Tesla 3’s are flooding the streets of California.

In the meantime, the economic data remains hot with Weekly Jobless Claims still hugging an all-time low at 215,000. But it is all backward-looking data.

Of course, the highlight of the week was the Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference which couldn’t have taken place in more ideal conditions. The food was outstanding, the bottles of Caymus cabernet were fast-flowing, and we even had the option of crashing the wedding in the ballroom next door (I saw some incredibly hot distant cousins).

While I lectured away on the prospects for markets and interest rates, children built sandcastles outside on the balmy Tahoe beach 20 feet away. We had a lot of doctors attend this year and I have to admit it was the first time I was offered a colonoscopy in exchange for a newsletter subscription.

Good cheer was had by all and there was a lot of exchanging of trading tips, email addresses, and phone numbers. It is clear the readers are making fortunes with my service. Most have already committed to coming back next year.
 
My year-to-date performance has faded to a still market-beating 22.37%, and my trailing one-year return stands at 30.68%. October is down -6.02%, despite a gut-punching, nearly instant NASDAQ swoon of 13.7%.  Most people will take that in these horrific conditions.

My single stock positions have been money makers, but my short volatility position (VXX), which I put on way too early, was a disaster eating up all of my profits. I bought puts with the (VXX) at $30. It hit an incredible $42 on Friday. That's why you only take on small 5% positions in outright volatility securities.

My nine-year return retreated to 298.84%. The average annualized return stands at 34.58%. Global Trading Dispatch is now only 44 basis points from an all-time high.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has done an outstanding job in October, giving back only -0.89% despite having an aggressively long portfolio. It still maintains an impressive annualized 20.31% profit. It almost completely missed the tech meltdown and then went aggressively long our favorite names right at the market bottom.

This coming week will be focused on the trifecta of jobs data and a few blockbuster technology earnings reports.

Monday, October 29 at 8:30 AM, the October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey is out.

On Tuesday, October 30 at 9:00 AM, the Corelogic S&P 500 Case-Shiller Home Price Index is released. Facebook (FB) and FireEye (FEYE) report. earnings.

On Wednesday, October 24 at 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report is published, a read on private hiring.

At 10:30 AM the Energy Information Administration announces oil inventory figures with its Petroleum Status Report.

Thursday, October 25 at 8:30, we get Weekly Jobless Claims. Apple (AAPL) reports.

On Friday, October 26, at 8:30 AM, the October Nonfarm Payroll Report is announced. The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Tahoe-attendees-1.png 375 341 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-29 01:07:592018-10-29 00:47:03The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or the Coming 2018 Replay
MHFTF

October 29, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 29, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE DIGITAL NOMAD ISSUE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-29 01:07:482018-10-29 00:43:41October 29, 2018
MHFTF

October 29, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

"As tech leaders, we have to admit that we are hugely disconnected with our nation. I don't like it but have to recognize this issue," - said current CEO of Uber Dara Khosrowshahi in 2016.

 

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