While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
October 13, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE DRUG BATTLE COMING TO A NEIGHBORHOOD NEAR YOU),
(PFE), (LLY), (MRK), (CVS), (UNH), (ANTM),
(WHY WARREN BUFFETT HATES GOLD),
(GLD), (GDX), (ABX),
(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
CVS Health Corporation (CVS)
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
Anthem, Inc. (ANTM)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
No, I?m not talking about warring Latin American drug gangs.
I?m not even referring to the legalization of marijuana, which looks like a done deal in California?s November 8th election.
No, I?m talking about the Golden State?s latest attempt to regulate drug prices.
What?s at stake here is a bifurcation of the entire US health care industry. The impact on your portfolio could be huge.
This is a big deal because, if successful, it could lead to a national movement to cap drug prices and gut the profitability of major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lily (LLY), and Merck (MRK).
On the other hand, health care providers and drug purchasers like CVS Health Group (CVS), United Health Group, (UNH), and Anthem (ANTM) would emerge as enormous winners.
Let me first tell you a story. In 1998 my late wife, Kyoko, was diagnosed with breast cancer.
Her doctor recommended a drug called Epogen which was highly effective at dealing with anemia during chemotherapy.
The problem was that since it was experimental, it was not covered by our insurance. It cost $1,000 a shot.
I said, ?No problem.? I was a hedge fund manger having a good year so I could afford it.
As Kyoko?s treatment progressed, she became friends with many other women undergoing the same process. The only problem was that they couldn?t afford the Epogen shots.
As a result, we watched them die one by one over a six-month period.
Kyoko got to live for another four years and passed? away in 2002.
Needless to say, I am somewhat sensitive to the issue of drug prices.
At issue is Proposition 61 which bars California?s health care plan, MediCal, from paying more for drugs than the US Department of Veteran Affairs.
Thanks to special negotiating power granted by the US Congress, the country?s 9 million veterans are able to obtain drugs on average 24% cheaper than typical consumers.
America?s 40 million Medicare recipients are barred by law from getting the same deal, thanks to decades of intense lobbying by conservative congressmen.
Nor are 4 million MediCal recipients who are currently costing California some $3.8 billion a year.
Competition from foreign drug suppliers is also similarly banned.
The battle over Proposition 61 promises to be the most expensive in US history. The pharmaceutical industry has so far poured more than $100 million into negative advertising to fight the measure.
Californians are now barraged with slickly-produced TV adds showing aged veterans begging you not to raise their drug prices.
At last count the polls are showing that Proposition 61 will pass with 70% of the vote.
AARP is a major supporter (please stop sending me those membership cards), as are AIDS activist groups. Veterans' groups oppose it.
It is all part of a nationwide backlash against the predatory practices of drug pricing.
This year has seen a 500% increase in the price of Mylan?s (MYL) EpiPens which are used to treat severe allergic reactions, tenfold price hikes for AIDS drugs and Hepatitis C treatments that cost $1,000 a pill.
Only last week, Mylan agreed to pay a $465 million fine for overcharging Medicare for EpiPens.
Drugs for chemotherapy, diabetes, and high blood pressure have also seen dramatic price increases.
It all vindicates my decision to take a vacation from the big pharma and health care space during 2016. Wide open to populist attack by both political parties, it is better to keep your cash out of the line of fire.
However, once the polls close there are going to be some great deals to be had in the shares of these reasonably growing industries.
My bet is that president Hillary is going to target the most egregiously offending companies, like Mylan, that only buy monopoly patents and mark prices up tenfold without doing any real medical research.
Mainstream big pharma companies like Pfizer and Eli Lily, which invest heavily in research, should not be affected.
By the way, Epogen is now covered by Obamacare. It works.



The Armageddon crowd must be slitting their wrists today watching gold hit a new four month low in the wake of the global interest rate rally.
No flight to safety here.
The Armageddon crowd are the guys who are perennially predicting the collapse of the dollar, the default of the US government, hyperinflation, and the end of the world.
Better to keep all your assets in gold and silver, store at least a year?s worth of canned food, and keep your guns well oiled and supplied with ammo, preferably in high capacity magazines.
If you followed their advice, you lost your shirt.
I have broken many of these wayward acolytes of their money-losing habits. But not all of them. There seems to be an endless supply emanating from the hinterlands.
The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, often goes to great lengths to explain why he despises the yellow metal.
The sage doesn't really care about gold whatever the price. He sees it primarily as a bet on fear.
If investors are more afraid in a year than they are today, then you make money on gold. If they aren't, then you lose money.
The only problem now is that fear ain't working.
If you took all the gold in the world, it would form a cube 67 feet on a side, worth $5 trillion. For that same amount of money, you could own other assets with far greater productive earning power including:
*All the farmland in the US, about 1 billion acres, which is worth $2.5 trillion.
*8 Apples (AAPL), the largest capitalized company in the world, at $634 billion.
Instead of producing any income or dividends, gold just sits there and shines, making you feel like King Midas.
I don't know. With the stock market at an all time high, and oil trading at $50/barrel, a bet on fear looks pretty good to me right now.
I'm still sticking with my long term forecast of the old inflation-adjusted high of $2,300/ounce.
It is just a matter of time before emerging market central bank buying pushes it up there.
And who knows? Fear might make a comeback too.


Maybe Feeling Like King Midas is Not So Bad
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