Featured Trade: (DOUBLING UP ON MY YEN SHORTS), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (UUP), (SAN FRANCISCO?S SUFFERING RENTERS TAKE ANOTHER HIT), (WHERE THE ECONOMIST ?BIG MAC? INDEX FINDS CURRENCY VALUE), (MCD), (FXE), (YCS), (FXF), (CYB) (TESTIMONIAL)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-13 01:07:522013-11-13 01:07:52November 13, 2013
My bet that the Japanese yen (FXY) would weaken against the dollar has paid off handsomely. I am now so confident that we are finally breaking out of a six month trading range to the downside that I am more than happy to double my short position in the yen.
I am therefore taking on the Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) December, 2013 $101-$104 in-the-money bear put spread, moving $1 down in the strikes, but keeping an ever shortening December 20 expiration. The other nice thing about this position is that we will benefit greatly from time decay going into the volatility sapping Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.
The official reason for the weakness is that the shockingly strong October nonfarm payroll released on Friday will prompt the Federal Reserve to taper its quantitative easing program sooner than later, possibly as early as the December meeting. That would raise interest rates for the greenback while yen interest rates will remain nailed to zero for years to come. This is important, as interest rate differentials are the primary driver in the foreign exchange markets.
The real reason is that traders expect the Bank of Japan to become more aggressive in its campaign to weak the yen and further stimulate economic growth. Japanese companies are now reporting blockbuster earnings, thanks to a falling yen, and the central bank would like to see more of the same.
With the Japanese government actively seeking to cut the knees out from under their own currency, while the Fed will soon take moves to strengthen theirs, a short yen/long dollar trade here a no brainer.
The Tokyo stock market is certainly a believer. Last night, the Nikkei average soared by 2.2%, the biggest move in three months. That?s why I have also been recommending the Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) for longer-term investors, a long stock/short yen ETF.
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?It always sounds smarter to be bearish than bullish,? said Ron Baron, CEO of Baron Capital Group.
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-12 11:45:522013-11-12 11:45:52Trade Alert - (FXY) November 12, 2013
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
You just can?t keep America down. That is the overwhelming message from Friday?s blockbuster October nonfarm payroll showing that 204,000 jobs were added, double the industry forecasts. The headline unemployment rate ratcheted back up from 7.2% to 7.3%, the first gain in many months.
August and September were revised up by an eye popping 60,000 jobs. October private sector job growth came in at a stunning 212,000. Apparently, the prospect of an imminent default by the US government prompted many corporate managers to rush out and hire! Go figure.
Without the Washington shutdown we probably would have seen a 300,000 print. It appears that 223,000 federal workers were temporarily laid off, but later received back pay, so they weren?t counted as jobless.
Leisure and hospitality was up an unbelievable 53,000. Retail added 44,000. Professional and technical services tacked on 21,000. Health care increased by 12,000 jobs, anticipating an onslaught of 30 million new customers with government guaranteed payments, thanks to Obamacare.
It confirms what I have been arguing since the summer, that the US economy is far stronger than anyone suspects, and that we are accelerating with an upward trajectory. This is the recurring theme that I get from speaking to dozens of CEO?s every month, whose views on the health of their own business usually beat the government data releases by 3-6 months. Believe me, I don?t talk to these guys because they wear snappy suits.
Of course, the initial market reaction was negative, since the good news is seen as advancing the Federal Reserve?s tapering of its quantitative easing program. This certainly was the read by the stock market on Thursday, when a surprise interest cut in the Euro and a blistering 2.8% Q3 GDP report triggered a 150 sell off in the Dow. Gold took it on the nose again, dropping $25. But we made it all back, and more, the next day, disproving this analysis, for everything, except gold.
Bonds really took it in the keister, the (TLT) dropping two and a half full points, bumping ten year Treasury yield up from 2.60% to 2.77%, one of the most extreme pops of the year in the fixed income markets. I came within a hair?s breadth of doubling my bond shorts the previous day, but decided to wait for the payroll report. This time, discretion was not the better part of valor.
If anyone had any doubts about the extreme, but underestimated strength of the economy, better take a look at the chart below of growth of the broader monetary aggregates. We are running at a nearly white hot 40% YOY growth rate.
This reflects a huge increase that is occurring in the velocity of money, a number that almost no one tracks, in addition to the Federal Reserve?s never ending monetary expansion. This is because more people everywhere are doing more business with each other. Despite what you hear in the media, confidence is rocketing. This eventually has to feed into higher reported GDP growth rates and will justify ever-higher share prices.
How many individual investors believe this? Almost no one. This year, $114 billion has trickled back into equity mutual funds. That is only a dent in the $600 billion this group tore out of equity mutual funds over the last five years. That fact alone should be worth another 25% of upside in the indexes.
For more depth on the rapidly evolving fundamentals in the economy, click here for my recent piece on ?The Rising Risk of a Market Melt Up?.
In Better Shape Than He Looks
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-12 01:04:322013-11-12 01:04:32You Just Can?t Keep America Down
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