Global Market Comments
January 9, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 12 AUCKLAND NEW ZEALND STRATEGY LUNCH),
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CLOSES 2013 WITH 67.45% PROFIT),
(AAPL), (XLE), (XLF), (FXY), (TLT), (SFTBY), (GILD)
(TESTIMONIAL)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY)
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert Service finished 2013 with a total return for followers of 67.45%.
Including both open and closed trades, 75 out of the 90 Trade Alerts were profitable, a success rate of 83%. The final month of December alone came in at an eye popping 11.45%.
The three-year return is an eye popping 122.5%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 35%.
That brings my averaged annualized return up to 39.7%.
This has been the best profit since my groundbreaking trade mentoring service was launched three years ago. It all is a matter of the harder I work, the luckier I get.
The hot streak continues. So far in January, we are up a further 3.58% in a down market. It seems like I can do no wrong, but am avoiding walking under ladders, breaking mirrors, and trading on Friday the 13th.
I held on to every risk on position during the two-week December correction, fully expecting the pause to become the springboard for a new run to all time highs by year-end. That is exactly what happened in the wake of the Federal Reserve?s decision to taper its quantitative easing program by only $10 billion a month, mere sofa change given the size of our bond market.
That sent off to the races my long positions in the Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF), and the S&P 500 (SPY). I also piled into new longs in Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK). To spice things up, I also bought some Gilead Sciences (GILD), seeking to cash in on the windfall profits generated by Obamacare.
Only the Internet giant Softbank (SFTBY) has been boring, persistently hanging around my costs price. I cashed in two of my three short positions in the Japanese yen (FXY), which broke to new multiyear lows. I took profits on my shorts in the Treasury bond market (TLT), which crashed, then quickly jumped back in on the short side on the next rally.
This is how the pros do it, and you can too, if you wish.
Carving out the 2013 trades alone, 77 out of 92 have made money, a success rate of 83%. It is a track record that most big hedge funds would kill for.
My esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, has also been coining it. Since April, his own performance numbers have just come back from the auditors, revealing that he is up a staggering 300%.
The coming winter promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere in 2014. The Trade Alerts should be coming hot and heavy. Please join me on the gravy train. You will never get a better chance than this to make money for your personal account.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011 and 14.87% in 2012. The service includes my Trade Alert Service and my daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. You also get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars.? Upgrade to Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO and you will also receive Jim Parker?s Mad Day Trader service.
To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the ?Global Trading Dispatch? box on the right, and click on the lime green ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.
Burma 1974You are the only person I follow who made me money last year. Please renew me for another year. I made $15,000. ?I made a resolution to do better this New Year. I can do options, spreads, stocks, ETFs; everything but selling options naked. I?m very happy to have found your service.
I truly admire your expertise and I like the way you present it, even if you are a Marine (I?m a former Navy Flight Surgeon). Next time you visit, I?ll happily buy you lunch or dinner or both. I sincerely wish you a very happy and healthy New Year and thank you very much for your help.
Harry O.
Corvallis, Oregon
Age 70
Stocks to watch..
WPRT...21.10 is a low risk buy zone with a 40 cent stop.
EA...a Friday close over 23.27 puts in an ORH week.
MSFT...short term sell stops are resting under 35.50-25. If elected, this would take you into the 34.90 buy zone.
I think the bad news is out of the way and you won't see it. It's setting up for a classic mid week low. A close today over 36.25 would confirm a low.
POT,MON,AGU...are all attempting to bottom. Friday @ 11:00 A.M. CDT is the big USDA crop report.
DD...Dupont just put in a new low by a couple of ticks on the week and reversed. This is a really cheap look to buy against today's low.
For Glossary of terms and abbreviations click here.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Brisbane, Australia on Saturday, February 22, 2014.
An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and question and answer period. I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I also hope to provide some insight into America?s opaque and confusing political system. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $219.
The lunch will be held at an exclusive restaurant on the Brisbane River waterfront, not far from Riverside Center, the location of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
[button size="large" color=(blue) link="http://madhedgefundradio.com/buy-tickets-brisbane-au-february-22-2014/"]Order Luncheon Tickets[/button]
Global Market Comments
January 8, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TEN TIPS FOR SURVIVING A DAY OFF WITH ME),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(US HEADED TOWARDS ENERGY INDEPENDENCE),
(USO), (UNG), (KOL), (XOM), (OXY)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
My inbox was clogged with responses to my ?Golden Age? for the 2020?s piece, particularly my forecast that the US was moving towards complete energy independence. This will be the most important change to the global economy for the next 20 years. So I shall go into more depth.
The energy research house, Raymond James, put out an estimate this morning that domestic American oil production (USO) would rise from 5.6 million barrels a day to 9.1 million by 2015. That means its share of total consumption will leap from 28% to 46% of our total 20 million barrels a day habit. These are game changing numbers.
Names like the Eagle Ford, Haynesville, and the Bakken Shale, once obscure references on geological maps, are now a major force in the country?s energy picture. Ten years ago North Dakota was suffering from depopulation. Now, itinerate oil workers must brave -40 degree winter temperatures in their recreational vehicles pursuing their $150,000 a year jobs.
The value of this extra 3.5 million barrels/day works out to $121 billion a year at current prices (3.5 million X 365 X $95). That will drop America?s trade deficit by nearly 25% over the next three years, and almost wipe out our current account deficit. Needless to say, this is a hugely dollar positive development.
This 3.5 million barrels will also offset much of the growth in China?s oil demand for the next three years. Fewer oil exports to the US also vastly expand the standby production capacity of Saudi Arabia.
If you want proof of the impact this will have on the economy, look no further that the coal (KOL), which has been falling in a rising market. Power plant conversion from coal to natural gas (UNG) is accelerating at a dramatic pace. That leaves China as the remaining buyer, and their economy is slowing.
It all makes the current price of oil at $95 look a little rich. As with the last oil spike three years ago, this one is occurring in the face of a supply glut. Cushing, Oklahoma is awash in Texas tea, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve stashed away in salt domes in Texas and Louisiana is at its maximum capacity of 727 barrels. It is concerns about war with Syria and Iran, fanned by elections in both countries that took prices to $112 in the fall.
My oil industry friends tell me this fear premium has added $30-$40 to the price of crude. This is why I have been advising readers to sell short oil price spikes to $110. The current run up isn?t going to take us to the $150 high that we saw in the last cycle. It is also why I am keeping oil companies with major onshore domestic assets, like Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY), in my long term model portfolio.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
