September 16, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
MDT AlertWhile the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Total Premium collected - $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium collected - $.75
ETE Long $14.05
Total Premium collected - $2.47
Short Sept 16th-$19 Call - ($.18)
Long Sept 16th-$19 Call - $.35
P Long $13.38
Total premiums collected - $1.20
Short Sept 23rd-$14 call - $.50
DUST Long $4.50
Total premiums collected - $.70
FCX Long $12.45
Premium collected - $.24
CIEN Long Oct 21-$22 Call - $1.39
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The S & P 500 rallied to a high of 2,151.31 before settling at 2,147.26.
It closed above the key level of 2,140.62 for the first time during this sell off.
As you know, 2,140.62 is the key level to watch because if it can close above it today, then the objective is back to 2,187.50.
The other key level to watch is 2,157.84.
That is the midpoint of last week's weekly price bar. A close above that level and this week's bar would be considered a bullish harami.
That would negate the bearish implication from last week.
The market should open to the downside this morning. A retest of the lower bands maybe the first move of the day.
The lower band on the 60 minute chart is 2,129.72. A break under that level and expect lower lows.
Finally, there are two open positions that expire today and they are both on ETE.
The long $18 call and the short $19 call.
At the time it seemed like a reasonable risk scenario as I was looking for a bounce in the stock. In essence, we risked 7 cents to make $1.00.
At this point, it does not appear likely that the long calls will move in the money.? It still leaves us with $2.40 of premium collected on ETE.
Continue to follow the levels.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Major level - 21.88
Minor level - 21.10
Minor level - 19.53 *
Major level - 18.75 *
Minor level - 17.96 *
Minor level - 16.41
Major level - 15.63
Minor level - 14.85
Minor level - 13.28
Major level - 12.50
As expected, the VIX dropped under the upper bands on the 60 minute and 30 minute charts.? It closed at 16.30.
The upper band is 18.74, which is right at the resistance level.
A close today under 17.96 and the VIX should drop to 15.63.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Major level - 2,250.00
Minor level - 2,234.38
Minor level - 2,203.12
Major level - 2,187.50 **
Minor level - 2,171.88
Minor level - 2,140.62 **
Major level - 2,125.00 *
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50
If the S & P can close today above 2,140.62, expect a retest of 2,187.50.
I still expect resistance at the 2,170 level.
2,117.20 should be minor support.? Minor resistance is at 2,148.40.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 120.31
Minor level - 119.53
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.97 *
Minor level - 116.41 *
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.84
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
The QQQ closed at 117.02.? Objective should be to 118.75.
115.63 should offer support at this point.
The QQQ continues to be the stronger market. 116.41 should be minor support.
TLT:?
Major level - 140.63
Minor level - 139.85
Minor level - 138.28
Major level - 137.50 *
Minor level - 136.72
Major level - 134.38 *
Minor level - 133.60 *
Minor level - 132.03
Major level - 131.25
The low yesterday for the TLT was 133.03, just 22 cents above the 132.81 level.
If the TLT breaks under 132.81, I would expect lower lows.
A bounce here should be up to the 134 area.
GLD:
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 130.46
Minor level - 128.91
Major level - 128.13
Minor level - 127.35 *
Minor level - 125.78 *
Major level - 125.00 *
Minor level - 124.22
The GLD hit a low yesterday of 124.91, just 9 cents under the major 125 level.
126.56 should be resistance at this point.
To move lower, the GLD would need two closes under 124.22.
XLE:
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 74.22
Minor level - 72.66
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53 *
Major level - 68.75 *
Minor level - 67.96 *
Minor level - 66.41
Major level - 65.63
The XLE did bounce yesterday after closing under the 67.96 level.
It would still need two closes under 67.96 to move down to 65.63.
At this point, 68.75 should be resistance.
FXY:
Major level: 96.09
Major level: 95.31
Major level: 94.53
Major level: 93.75 **
Major level: 92.97
Major level: 92.19
The FXY closed above the 94.53 level by two cents.? Expect support now at 94.14 and 94.53.
Objective should be to 95.31.
94.92 could offer minor resistance.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 115.63, 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple hit the next upside level, which is 115.63.? It is currently overbought and trading above the upper
bands on it's short term charts.
Don't chase here.? Wait for the pullback, which should be coming.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: BIDU, BABA, MA, DXCM, OXY, OSK, SLR, TOT, PTC, CCE, FNSR, NLS
Bearish Stocks:? REGN, AAP, CELG, DIS, COL, SRCL, SIG, RHT, ESRX, RCL, DDS, SBUX, WSM, LEN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
