September 3, 2025

 

(WILL THE MARKETS COAST OR ROLLERCOAST IN SEPTEMBER?)

 

September 3, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, September 1

Labor Day Public Holiday

1:30 p.m. Euro Area ECB Speech

 

Tuesday, September 2

5:00 a.m. Euro Area Inflation Rate

Previous: 2.0%

Forecast: 2.0%

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing final (August)

10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (July)

10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (August)

 

Wednesday, September 3

10:00 Durable Orders final (July)

10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (July)

10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (July)

2:00 p.m. Fed Beige Book

Earnings: Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Salesforce, Campbell’s, Dollar Tree

 

Thursday, September 4

8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (August)

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (08/23)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (08/30)

8:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs (Q2)

8:30 a.m. Productivity final (Q2)

8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (July)

9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (August)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services final (August)

10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (August)

Earnings: Broadcom

 

Friday, September 5

8:30 a.m. August Jobs Report

Previous: 73k

Forecast: 78k

 

Welcome to September – a month where many investors are used to white knuckle rides in the stock market.  Will it be the same this year?  With a market at all-time highs, seasonality weakness pressing against the markets, a Jobs Report on Friday, and Fed Independence being challenged, what could possibly go wrong?

Has the stock market priced in an economy that is not as rosy as it might appear?

Jobs data on Friday could give us some insight into the consumer and show whether or not investors should be concerned.  Despite some weakness last month, the labour market is still near full employment. 

However, full employment still might not translate into a “healthy job market.”

Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the U.S. economy added 75,000 jobs in August, which is a soft number only slightly up on the 73,000 jobs posted previously.  The unemployment rate is also forecasted to creep higher to 4.3% from 4.2%.

The market could become fragile if fundamentals change. 

There is also a lot of chatter about Fed independence lately.  Political interference in central banks has historically led to bad outcomes.  Markets would perceive this as a threat and possibly show a violent downside reaction.  Hard assets, such as gold and silver – considered safe havens – would probably surge higher to $4000 +.

Some statistics to digest:

The Stock Trader’s Almanac found that the S&P500 has averaged a 0.7% decline in September, in data going back to 1950.

Over the past five years, the S&P500 has averaged a 4.2% drop in September.

Over the last ten years, the index has dropped 2% on average.

We have a shortened week with the markets closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

Enjoy the week.

 

MARKET UPDATE

S&P 500

The index reached another all-time high at 6508 last week.  The bull market structure remains in place, despite all the risks and negatives.  (If everyone were bullish, then we would probably have a top in place and be looking out below).   But it would be wise to be cautious this month, given it can be a historically temperamental month in the markets. 

Resistance:  6508/18 and 6548/60

Support:  6400 – a break/close below here would increase the likelihood a top is in place.  Other support levels include: 6340/50 and 6200/10

 

GOLD

Gold’s movement is seen forming a rising wedge/reversal formation, which would suggest an eventual downside resolution. However, a break of $3490 would put this larger topping view on hold.  We have now seen gold break $3500.    Silver has also broken out to the upside and should hold its bullish stance in the short term.  Let’s monitor the reaction to the bullish move.

Resistance: $3453/58 and $3490

Support: $3310/20

 

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has continued lower from the August 14 slight new high at 124.5k.  We could see more weakness in the short to medium term.  If we break 93k, a 70k target could be next.

Resistance:  112.4/9

Support: 105.4/105.9 area

 

HISTORY CORNER

On September 1

 

 

FINANCIAL/INVESTMENT TERMINOLOGY CORNER

Cross collateralisation: or ‘cross securitisation’ = using a property you already own to help you buy another one, by tapping into its equity.    You end up with your loan/s secured by the two properties. 

Why do people do this?

You can buy the new property without having to save up for the deposit and stamp duty costs.

OPTION TRADE UPDATE

If you bought any of the Oracle (ORCL) trades that expire in September.  Please keep a tight stop.  Well done if you were nimble and took profits last Thursday when Oracle closed at $40.31.  As you can see in the chart below, Oracle has come down to test support again at the 0.236 Fib.  If the stock falls below here, it may fall further to test the 0.382 Fib.  So, a tight stop is warranted.  If you bought Oracle stock, hold it.

If you still hold any option spreads that expire in September, please take profits.  All trades are in the money except Oracle. 

 

 

QI CORNER

Marjanul Islam

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie