(DOGE) Archives

Shiba Inu Coin

This article is not a joke. This is an article about a parody token that is now a real thing.

There are meme stocks, and there are meme tokens.

There is the argument out there that the flood of liquidity is giving these assets their time in the sun.

I am not saying these assets are great to buy and hold long-term, hardly not, but they do offer the volatility for traders to jump in and out of them for a nice profit.

Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB), a popular meme token based on another alternative coin, Dogecoin (DOGE), is a decentralized cryptocurrency created in August 2020 by an anonymous person or persons known as “Ryoshi.”

SHIB experienced its most explosive run during the 2021 meme-asset cycle and has since settled into a more mature, volatility-driven trading range.

While this dog-inspired cryptocurrency continues to see sharp rallies during periods of market enthusiasm, it remains well below its 2021 all-time high of approximately $0.000088.

Shiba Inu Coin now typically ranks around No. 34 by market capitalization, with a market value fluctuating between roughly $4.7 billion and $5.2 billion, still firmly placing it among the largest meme-based cryptocurrencies, but far from the very top of the market.

Before investing in any altcoins, it’s important to understand that these coins are a great deal riskier than something like Bitcoin (BTC).

It sounds funny just saying that but yes, there are different degrees of risk with different coins.

There has been a lot of hype surrounding the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) movement, but I would say, only deploy capital in altcoins if you are willing to write off the entire investment.

And I’ll say this, it’s a speculative investment in general, so at least do a little due diligence before you take the plunge.

Shiba Inu Coin is an Ethereum-based ERC-20 token, which means it was developed on the Ethereum blockchain, rather than its own blockchain.

Ryoshi decided to launch SHIB on Ethereum (ETH) because it’s “already secure and well-established,” according to the SHIB white paper, or, as its community calls it, the “woof paper.”

I have gone on record saying that Ethereum will go higher than Bitcoin in the future because it’s that attractive platform that every DeFi developer wants to build on, and SHIB is just one iteration of that.

Developers also choose to roll out their projects using the ETH platform because it’s way cheaper than building a platform from scratch.

SHIB launched with a total supply of 1 quadrillion tokens, though a meaningful portion has since been burned, bringing the circulating supply down to roughly 589 trillion SHIB over time.

Ryoshi is on record saying he doesn’t have any SHIB, and nearly half of its initial supply was locked in a liquidity pool on the decentralized exchange Uniswap.

The rest was sent to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

According to SHIB’s white paper, Ryoshi sent tokens to Buterin with hopes that he’d keep the tokens.

However, Buterin did not.

He donated a significant amount to the India Covid Relief Fund and other charities, which goes to show that not all Covid Relief Funds are created equal.

This is not a joke, and some people might be laughing when they read what this coin is based on.

That is why altcoins may require additional caution due to their differences from something like Bitcoin, including their structure, supply, and utility.

SHIB supporters might point to a comprehensive ecosystem, which now includes smart contract functionality, NFTs, liquidity mining opportunities, and a dedicated Layer-2 network, Shibarium, aimed at lowering transaction costs and expanding real utility beyond pure community hype.

Another juicy piece of news saw rising support for a Change.org petition urging trading platform Robinhood to list SHIB on the broker’s platform.

That effort ultimately succeeded.

SHIB has been listed on Robinhood since 2022, improving accessibility and liquidity, though the listing did not translate into a sustained re-rating of the token’s price.

When asked by analysts, Robinhood CEO Vladimir Tenev had initially been noncommittal, but the listing was later approved as part of a broader expansion of the company’s crypto offerings.

That’s the thing about these altcoins — they can come out of nowhere, and even a “fake it till you make it,” SHIB created real wealth during its peak cycle for early participants.

Now the secret is out about SHIB, I would scale in slowly, but don’t bet the ranch on this speculative bet, and prepare for high volatility.

April 2, 2025

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 2, 2025
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE TRUTH ABOUT TESLA THE BUSINESS MODEL)
(TSLA), (DOGE)

The Truth About Tesla The Business Model

Tech Letter

It is becoming more than obvious that Elon Musk’s venture into politics is hurting his business as Tesla dishes us some bad results from the latest quarter.

The amount of global deliveries failed to meet the mark and demand has been sapped for a variety of reasons.

Before getting more into it, I must say that European and American EV makers face an existential test against the Chinese and this challenge isn’t a decade or 2 off – it is right here and right now.

China has used its technological prowess to quickly rise up through the value-added supply chain and they now make a smartphone almost as high quality as an iPhone but for just a fraction of the price.

If we extrapolate this concept further out in terms of directional trajectory, the Chinese will most likely reproduce a similar outcome in aviation, humanoid robots, AI, semiconductor chips, automation and every leading tech sub-sector.

Musk certainly knows this which is why he is pivoting to robo-taxis and humanoid projects that are making headway, but not ready for commercial use.

The pie shrinking and the Chinese grabbing larger pieces of it is why Tesla only reported a paltry 336,681 deliveries versus 390,342 estimated.

This marks the worst quarter for deliveries since the second quarter of 2022.

The refreshed Model Y went on sale globally in March, which could be a reason for depressed demand for its top-selling vehicle.

Tesla sales have been stalling across most of its global territories. Earlier this week, Tesla registration data in key European regions fell in March, another sign that sales are continuing to slide in one of its key markets as Tesla's brand has also taken a backseat to Elon Musk’s political foray.

In France, only 3,157 Tesla EVs were registered, down 36.8% from a year ago. Norway saw only 2,211 registrations, down 63.9%. Sweden’s tally of 911 was only down 1%.

Tesla’s registrations are a close proxy for sales, which the company only reports quarterly and does not break out by region.

Another worrying trend that I must bring up is the rapid increase in political violence against Tesla products which is quickly muddying the prestigious brand.

Consumers simply won’t feel safe to buy or drive around in a Tesla if there is a good chance it will get blown up or vandalized.

It would be a good idea for Tesla if Musk clarified his role in running the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and balancing his duties with Tesla.

Even if he does clarify his position, then it could all be for naught with politics quickly dissolving into a zero-sum game in almost every G20 country.

If we step back and look at the broader picture, it appears as if Tesla and Musk have run up to the extreme limit of his personal and political success in the short-term.

Any further meaningful progress will mean Musk “breaks the wall” and radically pivots into something new that will be the catalyst for another leg up in Tesla shares. He will also need federal government cooperation to do this which he didn’t have in the last administration.

Unfortunately, that transition process could become acutely painful for Tesla the business model in the short-term, and any trader looking for a quick mini-dip buy should avoid Tesla for now.

For long-term investors, this is a stock that hasn’t factored in robo-taxi or humanoid technology, and if anyone gets to deploy these two technologies, it will be Tesla and nobody else.

The risks to innovation can be sometimes existential while sting in the short-term, and Musk is finding that out in all its glory.

In the short-term, put on your seatbelt for heightened volatility, and long-term, buy and hold Tesla.

April 26, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
April 26, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE DOGE EFFECT)
(DOGE), (TWTR), (TSLA), (ETH), (BTC)

The Doge Effect

Bitcoin Letter

One of the more outsized second order effects occurring in the risk markets right now is the boost Dogecoin (DOGE) is receiving from the carnival atmosphere that is Elon Musk buying Twitter (TWTR).

DOGE is up 30% in the past week but down 500% from last May when DOGE experienced a euphoric ride up only to come crashing down.

It’s no surprise that Musk, through his EV company Tesla (TSLA), owns Bitcoin on its balance sheet and he’s on record lately admitting that Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that Tesla owns, and they haven’t sold any.

Personally, he owns Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) and he specifically mentions the reason for owning Dogecoin is because he likes dogs.

On the surface, it sounds ridiculous that Musk would speculate on an altcoin just because he likes dogs, but people also thought it was crazy he would buy Twitter for $44 billion.

Musk explained he arrived at the conclusion to buy DOGE through a well-known principle called Occam's razor.

That is a philosophical principle that states the simplest variant is usually the best choice.

He then goes on to explain that he subscribes to a variant of Occam’s razor where the most entertaining variant is usually the best choice.

He is entertained by Shiba Inu dogs so he buys Shiba Inu Alt Coins represented as DOGE coin.

Either way, his association with Dogecoin and Bitcoin has done wonders for its short-term price action with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies surging.

Perhaps this could be the reason for the short-term stabilization of crypto.

Other factors that could be lifting crypto are U.S. dollar holders looking for alternative assets during the highest inflation in decades; some buying after the American mid-April tax deadline passing; the war in Ukraine and the U.S.’s OFAC sanctioning of Russian bitcoin miners and the ongoing uncertainty about whether the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might approve spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.

Musk also said last month that he wouldn’t sell his dogecoin, and would also continue to hold bitcoin and ether.

Earlier this year, Tesla began accepting dogecoin for merchandise purchases on its website. DOGE holders could be hoping that Twitter under Musk’s leadership may see more of the same — a use case for the token. Late last year Twitter unveiled a tipping function allowing users to send creators bitcoin.

The way DOGE achieves higher price discovery is for the potential for dogecoin to be given more utility on one of the biggest social media networks once Elon has official control of the company.

Every incremental bit helps.

Imagine DOGE freely mingling in and out of Twitter accounts that highly entertain or Musk floating the idea that for $3, every account can get a blue checkmark which has traditionally signaled a large and influential account.

Paying this $3 using DOGE could be the way that Musk integrates DOGE is onboarded onto the Twitter ecosystem.

Other use cases could also find their way into the DOGE coin ecosystem such as a $5 vanilla Twitter registration fee and with a total addressable market like Twitter and the chance to monetize the platform in a different way, I wouldn’t put it past Musk that he has some sort of plan for DOGE, BTC, or ETH.

Musk has been a huge proponent of free speech and during a Ted Talk interview he said buying Twitter “had nothing to do with economics.”

That thought right there could lead to a one-way avalanche of crypto payments embedded all over his new social media company.

Don’t write off DOGE, the richest man in the world might keep pushing it to the public and we already know that every associated Tweet about it results in a higher price.

March 31, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
March 31, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(EVEN CHARLIE WARMS TO BITCOIN)
(DOGE), (SHIB), (BTC)

Even Charlie Warms to Bitcoin

Bitcoin Letter

One of the biggest promoters of the U.S. economy for the past 50 years has been vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Charlie Munger.

Lately, he has taken his privileged position to opine about almost everything under the sun.

At some stage, people like us like to infuse the generation behind us with the right tools to navigate the global economy, and sharpening these instruments goes a long way in determining who became the ultimate winners and losers.

Charlie came out with sharpened elbows today describing a world in which “it’s never been harder for young people to make and keep their money.”

He then begins to dive into the topic of inflation and the financial destruction beset on a young population who are not only asset scarce, but whose salaries are lower in real terms than the young person 40 years ago.

Essentially, Charlie is encouraging young people to avoid the traditional financial system that benefited him so much in order to look for greener pastures.

Sometimes it really is greener on the other side of the fence and the first generation of crypto Billionaires can attest to that.

Becoming a crypto whale usually entails getting in early before the rest pile in.

Munger also lamented the hardship of young people purchasing property in a “desirable neighborhood in a city like Los Angeles.”

Mortgages backed by the US dollar and Fanny Mae have been instrumental in helping millions of hardworking Americans realize the American dream of owning their own home.

Obviously, the US property market in many parts of the country these days is out of control and even though it’s not directly linked to cryptocurrency, it’s directly linked to the US dollar which Bitcoin is an absolute competitor.

Munger couldn’t be righter that young people will not be able to copy and paste what worked before and that the ones who don’t adapt will not be able to achieve a life in a desirable city.

In a roundabout way, Charlie is espousing the virtues of Bitcoin even though he doesn’t know it.

Part of the bias he presides over is in the way young people get rich and age doesn’t make you want to get rich all over again in crypto after getting rich through the US dollar and stocks.

Investing in alternative strategies has never been more attractive, but there is a smart way to do it and an irresponsible way to do it.

In the last few years, Bitcoin has proved itself to be a great store of value and it appears that no matter what you throw at it lately, it won’t go down that much.

But then there is the scarier side of crypto that isn’t Bitcoin and things get suspicious quickly like somebody following you down a narrow, shady alley.

Many have thrown their life savings in these coins that are fashionably new and low cap and obscure thinking that they can get rich quickly when all that will actually happen is they'll lose their money in these coins that either fail or get the rug pulled.

Seeing coins like SHIB, DOGE, which were altcoins that actually did build a substantial market cap in the past, has only encouraged these people in their thinking that they can make a lot of money off of these coins when the reality is that these were only 2 among thousands of coins that got lucky.

Investing should be done with a purpose, otherwise, it becomes pure gambling and you'll likely fail.

That purpose could be Bitcoin as a means of decentralization, as a means of inflation hedge, or just as a currency that's easy to transfer. As long as you know what you support in your coin, you have a purpose that you believe in which is what investing is about, not closing your eyes and picking a coin.

Not only that you won't get rich, but you'll also lose your money in these coins. The only people getting rich will be those controlling the coin with their bags that are ready to sell.

But of course, there still are those projects with a purpose that can change the market, but you'll need a lot of time on your hands to find those new ones.

February 1, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
February 1, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BITCOIN THE BELLWETHER SHINES BRIGHTEST)
(BTC), (DOT), (DOGE), (SOL)

Bitcoin the Bellwether Shines Brightest

Bitcoin Letter

Caught up in the euphoria of crypto’s rise, all sorts of new altcoins were issuing their denominations as soon as they could figure out how to get to market.

Perhaps a moral hazard but certainly a sign of the speculative times of 2020.

Thousands of coins using thousands of celebrities came out of the woodwork to claim their coin was the best.

Of course, they weren’t.

Now, the crypto climate has drastically shifted to risk-off sentiment and the knock-on effect is hitting the obscure altcoins the most.

Sometimes, a clean palate is needed to really taste the quality of food and that’s what is happening in the crypto industry as we speak.

The “competitors” are falling by the wayside as the likes of Solana and Polkadot to Litecoin and Dogecoin promised to recapture the imagination of the crypto ecosystem.

Some even suggested an imminent rapid fragmentation of the crypto market into silos with different currencies dominating different areas like a Mongolian warlord in their prime.

But things haven’t worked out like that.

Bitcoin has cut its loss of market share this month and begun to regain ground, as baffled investors seek the relative safety of the biggest crypto coin while they grapple with an aggressive Fed and inflation shooting through the roof.

Bitcoin's share of the $1.68 trillion crypto market has risen to about 42%, from 39% two weeks ago - the first time it has registered an increase since dropping from a peak of 46% in mid-October, according to data from CoinMarketCap which tracks 17,225 cryptocurrencies across 458 exchanges.

Bitcoin has outperformed the industry at a time when the entire crypto market has fallen this month.

Nonetheless, the bellwether Bitcoin could continue to outperform its crypto rivals from the more hesitant investment climate.

The concept of the path of least resistance means that investors hideout in Bitcoin and spurn the Dogecoins and Shiba Inu coins of the world for now.

While most cryptocurrencies still take their price signaling from bitcoin, these currencies that were hyped up and marketed to the hills could find bids drying up quickly.

Pockets of strength will periodically emerge, and catching a few of those shifts will be incredibly important for performance this year.

Bitcoin has taken the bullets but hasn’t outright crashed and it shouldn’t, but I can’t say the same about these smaller coins.

Cryptocurrencies hyped for their blockchain application used to build decentralized finance applications have underperformed greatly to Bitcoin lately.

Solana, which jumped 100-fold in 2021, is down 47%, while Polkadot is down 41%.

The selloff that began in December has however been less volatile and seen lower volumes transacted than bitcoin's previous rout in May 2021, when it halved in nine days.

We are range-bound now and that’s a far cry from the crypto “winter” many have been calling for.

If another monster risk-off moment does come, the last place an investor wants to be exposed is the crypto minnows.

If Bitcoin does retrace 5%, it certainly will be felt more in the altcoins sub-genre.

Once we do recover and find some footing, we will look back at this moment and realize it was a time when we separated the wheat from the chaff in the crypto industry.

I believe that Bitcoin will continue to consolidate its position at the top of the crypto pecking order.