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Tag Archive for: (GH)

april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Bright Side Of A Dark Diagnosis

Biotech Letter

Let's face it. Cancer is still kicking our collective butts.

Despite all the fancy lab coats and high-tech gadgets, cancer remains the second-leading cause of death in the U.S. It's like that annoying party guest who just won't leave, no matter how many hints you drop.

This year alone, more than 2 million Americans are expected to hear those dreaded words: "You have cancer." And sadly, over 600,000 of our fellow citizens will lose their battle with this relentless foe in 2024.

Before you start thinking I'm all doom and gloom, let me flip the script for you. Where there's a problem, there's opportunity. And in this case, we're talking about a massive opportunity to put your investment dollars to work.

Back in 2020, America shelled out a whopping $200 billion on cancer treatments. By 2030, that number is projected to skyrocket to over $245 billion. That's a growth trajectory that’s worth our attention, don’t you think?

So, let's dive into the world of cancer-fighting stocks. There are some heavy hitters in this space that deserve your attention.

First up, we've got Illumina (ILMN), the gene-sequencing giant. These folks are like the Sherlock Holmes of the genetic world, helping researchers crack the cancer code.

With over 21,600 of their systems installed worldwide, Illumina is the go-to company for anyone looking to dive deep into our genetic makeup.

But here's the thing - Illumina isn't just about cancer. Their tech is used in everything from studying infectious diseases to figuring out if your unborn baby is likely to be the next Einstein.

And while they're tight-lipped about their exact market share, word on the street is they're still the big fish in the gene-sequencing pond.

In fact, let me throw some numbers at you. Illumina holds a whopping 80% market share among the seven main pure-play next-generation sequencing companies.

Even if we toss in some non-pure-play heavyweights like Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Agilent Technologies (A), and Qiagen (QGEN), Illumina's still sitting pretty with roughly two-thirds of the global market.

And get this - despite the industry facing some macro headwinds, Illumina's market share has held steady over the past couple of years. Talk about staying power.

Speaking of big fish, Illumina recently spun off Grail (GRAL), but they've still got their fingers in that pie with a 14.5% stake.

Grail is all about liquid biopsy products – fancy talk for finding cancer through a simple blood test. It's a promising field, but Illumina's not the only player in town.

Enter the new kids on the block: Element Biosciences and Ultima Genomics. Backed by venture capital and hungry for a piece of the action, these upstarts are shaking things up. Element's focusing on accuracy, while Ultima's all about high-volume, low-cost sequencing.

While we're on the topic of liquid biopsies, let's talk about Guardant Health (GH). These folks are the pioneers in finding tiny bits of tumor DNA floating around in your blood. Their Guardant360 product was the first FDA-approved liquid biopsy for all advanced solid tumors. That's like hitting a home run in your first major league at-bat.

But Guardant Health isn't resting on its laurels. They've got a whole suite of products, from tissue biopsies to tests that can tell if your cancer treatment is working. And get this – they're looking at a $30 billion annual market just in cancer treatment selection and recurrence monitoring.

But it doesn't end there. Early-stage cancer detection could add another $50 billion to that pot in the U.S. alone.

As if that wasn't enough, Guardant Health just got FDA approval for their Shield blood test for colorectal cancer screening in July 2024. Next stop? Lung cancer. These folks are aiming to create a test that can catch multiple cancers early.

And let's not forget the big boys. Pfizer (PFE), the pharmaceutical giant, is throwing its considerable weight into the cancer fight.

They've already got three blockbuster cancer drugs – Ibrance, Xtandi, and Inlyta – each raking in over a billion dollars a year. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. Pfizer's got about 40 more cancer programs in clinical testing.

Still, Pfizer isn't just relying on its own lab coats. They're not afraid to open up their wallet either. In 2021, they snatched up Trillium Therapeutics to beef up their blood cancer portfolio. And in 2023, they added Seagen to their collection, giving them a leg up in antibody-drug conjugates for cancer treatment.

Now, I know what you're thinking. "But what if the cancer market dries up?" (As if!) Well, Pfizer's got that covered too. They're big players in the vaccine market, with their new respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, Abrysvo, looking set to bring in some serious cash.

So there you have it. The war on cancer is far from over, but these companies are leading the charge. And while they're fighting to save lives, they might just help fatten up your portfolio too. I suggest you add these names to your watchlist and buy the dip.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-15 12:00:432024-10-15 12:23:38The Bright Side Of A Dark Diagnosis
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 29, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 29, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(ONE TEST TO RULE THEM ALL)

(ILMN), (BAYRY), (LLY), (MRK), (BMY), (AZN), (RHHBY), (NVS), (GH), (TEM), (TMO)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-29 12:02:022024-08-29 12:16:30August 29, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

One Test To Rule Them All

Biotech Letter

“One test to rule them all, one test to find them, one test to bring them all, and in the lab bind them,” the scientists at Illumina (ILMN) whispered – probably.

Their latest creation just got the FDA nod, and it's set to turn the world of cancer diagnostics on its head. It's as if Gandalf himself handed oncologists a palantír that reveals tumors' deepest secrets.

For those less versed in Middle-earth lore, this is like inventing a universal remote for tumor profiling, and oncologists can't wait to start channel surfing.

Now, you might be thinking, "What's the big deal?" Well, let me break it down for you.

This test, called TruSight Oncology Comprehensive (TSO for short), is the first FDA-approved genomic in vitro diagnostic kit that can make pan-cancer companion diagnostic claims.

In plain English, that means it's a single test that can be used across multiple cancer types. We're talking about a game-changer in precision oncology here.

Let's get into the nitty-gritty. This TSO test is a beast. It screens for a whopping 517 genes and provides comprehensive information on tumor mutational burden (TMB) and microsatellite instability (MSI).

These are crucial biomarkers that help determine how a patient might respond to immunotherapies. The breadth of data this single FDA-approved test can collect is unprecedented.

Now, you might be wondering, "Haven't we had companion diagnostics before?" Sure, but they've typically been limited to specific drugs or cancer types.

This pan-cancer test from Illumina is different. It can be applied to a wider range of solid tumors, and let me tell you, oncologists are loving it.

In fact, about 39% of U.S. oncologists have already said they strongly prefer using multi-gene panels over single-gene tests for guiding treatment decisions. That's a clear signal that there's demand for comprehensive diagnostic solutions like TSO.

Illumina's been busy across the pond, too. A version of this test has been available in Europe since 2022. But the U.S. version's got some new tricks up its sleeve.

It can help identify patients who might benefit from specific immunotherapies, including Bayer's (BAYRY) Vitrakvi and Eli Lilly's (LLY) Retevmo. The latter is a new addition compared to the EU version of the test.

Let's talk about these therapies for a second. Vitrakvi is used for adult and pediatric patients with certain NTRK mutations, regardless of their type of cancer. That's pretty cool, right?

But here's the kicker - these NTRK gene fusions are only found in about 0.1% to 0.3% of solid tumors, and they're tough to detect.

TSO's ability to scan both RNA and DNA means it can find multiple forms of this biomarker. That's a big deal for companies like Bayer, who've sometimes struggled to find eligible patients for this targeted therapy.

But Illumina's not resting on its laurels. They've got a growing pipeline of companion diagnostic claims in development, working hand in hand with drugmakers. They're planning to seek these in future regulatory submissions.

You see, Illumina's been playing the long game, forging partnerships with big pharma to co-develop companion diagnostics that align with targeted therapies.

Take their 2019 partnership with Merck (MRK), for instance. They teamed up to develop and commercialize a companion diagnostic using Illumina's TruSight Oncology 500 assay.

The goal? To identify genetic mutations in cancer patients that would respond to Merck's cancer drugs like Keytruda. This partnership boosted the adoption of Illumina's NGS platform in clinical oncology settings, contributing to both companies' growth.

The market liked what it saw at the time. Illumina's stock got a nice bump following the partnership announcement. And why wouldn't it?

The deal strengthened Illumina's position in the oncology diagnostics market, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.4% from 2023 to 2030.

But Merck's not the only dance partner Illumina's got. They've also teamed up with Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) to use their TSO 500 assay as a companion diagnostic for immuno-oncology therapies.

This collaboration expanded Illumina's reach into new oncology applications, allowing BMY to use the TSO platform to identify patients most likely to benefit from its immune checkpoint inhibitors.

And there's more - Illumina's also forged partnerships with AstraZeneca (AZN), Roche (RHHBY), and Novartis (NVS) to develop companion diagnostic tests.

Next, let's talk numbers. Each new FDA-approved indication could potentially add $100 million to $200 million annually to Illumina's revenue. That's no chump change.

Unsurprisingly, Illumina's not the only player in this game.

Companies like Foundation Medicine (a Roche subsidiary), Guardant Health (GH), Tempus (TEM), Caris Life Sciences, Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and GRAIL (another Illumina subsidiary) are all working towards pan-cancer or multi-cancer diagnostics.

Still, Illumina's TSO test is the first to secure FDA approval for pan-cancer companion diagnostic claims. This lead could translate into a significant market advantage.

Actually, Illumina already holds more than 70% market share in the global NGS market as of 2022. This means it’s well-positioned to benefit from this growth, and this latest FDA approval could further consolidate its market dominance.

Speaking of the FDA, they’ve been busy too. They've ramped up their support for precision medicine in recent years, approving a growing number of companion diagnostics and genomic tests.

From 2017 to 2021, they approved over 25 new companion diagnostics, a significant increase from the 5-10 approvals per year in the early 2010s. And a substantial portion of these approvals has been for oncology-related tests.

In 2021 alone, 68% of the FDA's new drug approvals were for cancer treatments.

Now, let's zoom out and look at the bigger picture. According to the World Health Organization, there were an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases and 10 million cancer deaths worldwide in 2020.

The global cancer burden is expected to rise to 28.4 million cases by 2040, a 47% increase from 2020.

In the U.S., about 1.9 million new cancer cases are expected to be diagnosed in 2023.

The economic impact is also staggering. The economic burden of cancer in the U.S. was estimated at $157 billion in 2020, and it's projected to increase to over $246 billion by 2030.

These numbers stress the growing need for early detection and personalized treatment solutions.

But, unlike other companies, here's where advanced diagnostics like Illumina's TSO can make a difference. By ensuring patients receive the most effective treatments based on their genetic profiles, these tests can reduce unnecessary treatments and improve outcomes.

Studies have shown that using precision diagnostics can lower overall healthcare costs by 15% to 20% by avoiding ineffective therapies and hospitalizations.

Essentially, what we're seeing here is more than just a new test. It's a glimpse into the future of cancer treatment - more precise, more personalized, and potentially more effective.

For patients, it could mean better outcomes. For healthcare systems, it could mean more efficient use of resources. And for us? Well, it could mean significant opportunities in a rapidly growing market.

As Gandalf might say, "All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us." Illumina's chosen to use their time crafting this powerful new tool.

The quest to conquer cancer continues, and Illumina’s TSO might just be the ring-bearer we've been waiting for.

Keep your eyes peeled, fellow adventurers. The journey into precision oncology is only just beginning, and it promises to be an epic saga indeed.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-29 12:00:362024-08-29 12:16:19One Test To Rule Them All
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

June 18, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 18, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(PHARMAGEDDON AVERTED)

(ILMN), (NVTAQ), (NTRA), (GH), (EXAS), (TMO), (QGEN), (NVS), (RHHBY), (AZN), (CRSP), (EDIT), (FATE)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Pharmageddon Averted

Biotech Letter

For far too long, we've been playing a dangerous game of biotech roulette - throwing our hard-earned dough at stocks solely based on who's peddling the latest drugs and vaccines to the biggest crowds.

We tiptoe around those dreaded "patent cliffs", living in fear of the moment our cash cows turn into generic, discount-bin duds overnight.

As I've loudly proclaimed before, Big Pharma is fundamentally a tightrope act - milking those lucrative exclusives for all they're worth while bracing for the inevitable day those monopolies go kaput.

It's an anxiety-inducing cycle, one that's been running the show for decades.

But enough is enough. It's high time we tossed that musty old playbook straight into the trash. Why? Because the reign of Pharma's legacy model is fading faster than my hairline.

A new revolutionary force is taking over – personalized medicine.

Don't kid yourselves, this tectonic shift is the real deal. We're witnessing a paradigm upheaval in how drugs are developed and treatments are administered.

Advanced, genetically-tailored therapies are muscling their way to the frontlines, employing each patient's unique DNA blueprint to craft bespoke care strategies like never before.

Leading this charge are gene sequencing pioneers like Illumina (ILMN), equipping healthcare with bleeding-edge tech for genetic profiling and research.

Companies like Invitae (NVTAQ) and Natera (NTRA) are making genetic intel accessible and actionable for diagnosing and treating inherited nightmares like cancer and heart disease. This isn't a drill, people. It’s the new reality.

But the innovation train doesn't stop there. Guardant Health (GH) is upping the ante with its non-invasive blood tests that capture tumor genetic data, allowing physicians to map treatment plans without those pesky, invasive procedures.

And let's hear it for Exact Sciences (EXAS), championing molecular diagnostics to laser-focus cancer regimens based on each person's biological fingerprint.

Speaking of cancer, we'd be remiss not to spotlight the game-changing progress happening on the personalized medicine front.

At the latest American Society of Clinical Oncology shindig, the best oncology minds showcased their latest advancements in tailored treatments.

Get this – over the last four years, over a third of the FDA's new drug approvals were personalized meds. With the White House doubling down, those numbers are only going up.

Obviously, personalized medicine is this century's gold rush. In fact, a global biopharma race is already underway, and everyone’s practically frothing at the mouth.

After all, this half-trillion-dollar market is barreling towards the $1 trillion mark by 2031.

And in this blossoming field, outfits like Thermo Fisher (TMO) and Qiagen (QGEN) are indispensable, provisioning crucial tools and services.

Thermo covers the full genetic research and diagnostics gamut, while Qiagen specializes in sample prep and molecular testing – two linchpins for delivering personalized therapies.

But it's not just the upstart trailblazers making waves. Biotech titans like Novartis (NVS), Roche (RHHBY), and AstraZeneca (AZN) are going knees-deep into advanced, commercially-viable personalized treatments – especially in oncology, where understanding Individual genetic mutations can literally mean life or death.

Let's pour one out for the real pioneers here, too – groundbreakers like CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Editas Medicine (EDIT), and Fate Therapeutics (FATE).

These mavericks are lighting up the gene editing and cell therapy arenas, hand-crafting hyper-personalized treatments that smite genetic diseases at the source.

Now, for those of you eagerly wondering where to splash your investment cash, I suggest you don't fall into the trap of banking solely on the next patented "winner" therapy.

Those old-school patent monopolies that once ruled the roost? Their significance is waning rapidly.

With the flurry of personalization tech out there, it's a Wild West – one company churns out a new treatment, another can swiftly follow suit.

Patent feuds and skyrocketing costs loom on the horizon like storm clouds. The gravy train of eternal patent profits is running out of steam.

But make no mistake, this arms race isn't cooling off anytime soon. The battleground's scope is simply shifting. It's no longer just about formulating the latest miracle drug – it's about delivering unbeatable services and customer experiences.

Because here's the cold hard truth – the biggest roadblock to getting these revolutionary therapies to patients is obtaining all the genetic data and personal insights needed to make it happen.

Healthcare providers are going to need to invest heavily in new data management systems, training, and education just to keep pace with these rapidly evolving personalized meds.

The pharma players that thrive? They're the ones going beyond prioritizing drug development to obsessing over best-in-class customer service and care delivery.

They'll cement customer loyalty, forge lasting partnerships – and in doing so, actualize personalized medicine's boundary-shattering promise. Those are the winners I'm betting big on.

So wake up and smell the coff-gene. The personalized biotech goldrush is kicking into high gear.

And those wise enough to stake an early claim? Well, let's just say they'll be dishing out more than genetics-guided therapy – they'll be minting a new generation of biotech fortunes.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-18 12:00:312024-06-18 12:19:56Pharmageddon Averted
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

September 19, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 19, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A SHOT AT HOPE)

(MRNA), (IMTX), (MRK), (PFE), (BMY), (GH), (ILMN), (NVS), (RHHBY), (BGNE), (AZN)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A Shot at Hope

Biotech Letter

In a quaint Boston lab, as the first rays of dawn broke, a team of scientists, led by Moderna (MRNA), embarked on a mission. Their goal? To craft a solution to one of humanity's most persistent adversaries: cancer.

The grim reality remains that cancer is a leading cause of death in the United States. The statistics are daunting, with over 1.9 million new cases anticipated in 2023 and a projected death toll exceeding 600,000. The financial implications mirror this gravity, with costs expected to soar from $156 billion in 2018 to a staggering $246 billion by 2030.

As the world watched with bated breath, Moderna, already a household name for its COVID-19 vaccine, was silently weaving a narrative that could redefine the future of oncology.

Needless to say, the biotechnology sector, a realm of ceaseless innovation, has been abuzz with Moderna's latest venture. Earlier this month, the biotech announced its agreement with the German drug developer Immatics (IMTX) to develop cancer vaccines and therapies. As part of the deal, Moderna will pay $120 million in cash and will also make additional milestone payments.

This collaboration is not just about the financials; it's a beacon of hope for millions.

The partnership is set to merge Moderna's mRNA technology with Immatics’s T-cell receptor platform, focusing on various therapeutic modalities such as bispecifics, cell therapies, and cancer vaccines. Their combined research aims to leverage mRNA technology for in vivo expression of Immatics's half-life extended TCR bispecifics targeting cancer-specific HLA-presented peptides, among other innovative approaches.

With an upfront investment of $120 million, Moderna has made it clear: they're in it to win it. And the stakes? Potentially life-changing cancer vaccines.

However, this isn’t Moderna’s first foray into the realm of cancer treatments.

Building on the momentum of the technology of its highly potent COVID-19 shots, Moderna announced a partnership with Merck (MRK) earlier this year, combining their efforts to come up with treatments that can drastically reduce the spread of skin cancer. By leveraging Merck's Keytruda with its own innovative vaccine, Moderna has showcased the potential of such collaborations in advancing cancer treatment.

After all, the global community oncology services market is not just growing; it's clearly thriving.

From $47.95 billion in 2022 to a projected $53.79 billion in 2023, the numbers speak for themselves. By 2027, this figure is set to skyrocket to $81.33 billion. Such exponential growth underscores the immense potential and critical importance of advancements in oncology.

Yet, as expected, Moderna isn't the only player on the field.

Giants like Novartis (NVS) and Roche (RHHBY) have also thrown their hats in the ring, collaborating with known international cancer organizations to democratize access to cancer medicines. Among the myriad of promising stocks these days, though, Moderna, China’s BeiGene, Ltd. (BGNE), and the UK’s AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) shine the brightest.

Other notable contributors to the fight against cancer include Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Guardant Health (GH), Illumina (ILMN), and Pfizer (PFE). Their diverse portfolios and relentless pursuit of innovation are set to shape the future of oncology.

But as the curtains draw on this narrative, the spotlight remains firmly on Moderna. Their success with the COVID-19 vaccine has already etched their name in the annals of medical history. With their sights now set on cancer vaccines, the world waits with eager anticipation.

In the grand tapestry of medical advancements, Moderna's endeavors in the cancer vaccine domain promise to be a golden thread. Their journey, fraught with challenges and uncertainties, is proof of human resilience and ingenuity. As investors, we're not left standing on the sidelines watching history unfold; we're granted an active role in it.

The potential of Moderna's innovations in oncology beckons a promising horizon. For those looking to make a mark in the annals of medical investments, this biotech offers a gateway to the future of oncology. Act now, and be part of this groundbreaking narrative.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-09-19 14:00:432023-09-19 15:57:46A Shot at Hope
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 15, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 15, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A LONG-TERM HIGH-RISK STOCK)
(ILMN), (GRAL), (EXAS), (NVTA), (GH), (NTRA)

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Long-Term High Risk Stock

Biotech Letter

As Warren Buffett says, it’s wise to be greedy when others are fearful. This is excellent advice these days since we’ve been dealing with fearful times. Even the best growth stocks have been struggling from economic headwinds and the rising panic over interest rate hikes.

That means there are several opportunities for enterprising investors to take advantage of the uncertainties and set themselves up for long-term success by buying quality stocks at discounted prices.

One stock that has been battling issues lately is Illumina (ILMN).

Over the past 10 years, Illumina has delivered 380% returns—resoundingly beating the market’s gain of 241.6%.

To achieve that success, the company sold, installed, and serviced over 20,000 gene sequencer devices, which hospitals and other biomedical centers use to analyze genetic data.

Unfortunately, Illumina’s luck has turned in the last 12 months. The company has been underperforming and has investors worried about the future.

Illumina’s dominance in the sequencer market is one of the significant reasons to invest in its stock.

After all, the significance of genetic information is projected to expand over time. That makes Illumina the clear candidate for a long-term hold despite its current underperformance.

However, it’s understandable for investors to be anxious, especially with the recent move of Europe’s antitrust regulators to bar the $8 billion acquisition of Grail (GRAL).

Here’s a brief background about the deal.

Grail has created a lab test that can identify over 50 types of cancers at their early stages using only a simple blood draw. This is called the Galleri blood test.

Since screenings do not exist for most kinds of cancers, many are not diagnosed until they’re already spread and are, therefore, more challenging to treat.

Although Grail’s test does not promise to detect all cancers, it can catch the 12 most fatal types with roughly 76% accuracy, while its false positives are lower than 1%.

Needless to say, these tests could save thousands of lives annually if adopted across the globe.

This is where Illumina comes in. Since the company develops platforms that sequence genetic tests for various fetal abnormalities and even COVID variants, it has the technology to expand Grail’s operation.

Moreover, Illumina has extensive experience negotiating insurer reimbursements, which means it could accelerate the commercial adoption of Grail’s technology. At the moment, most insurers refuse to cover the costs of Grail’s test.

This resulted in only $12 million in revenue for the company, with over $187 million in operating loss. Grail’s underwhelming performance is one of the reasons investors are baffled over the move to block the acquisition.

Another is that the acquisition does not fall under any of the categories for antitrust reviews under the EU bylaws because Grail does not operate or do any business in Europe.

However, the commissioner decided to invoke a provision under EU’s merger rules that allow member states to reach out to the commission when their governments do not have jurisdiction over the matter. Six countries did so, which led to the review.

The commission is tag-teaming with the US Federal Trade Commission, which also moved to stop the deal in 2021. Both regulating bodies claim that the agreement could impede competition in the embryonic multiple cancer-early detection industry.

According to the EU commission, this acquisition would cut off all of Grail’s rivals in the segment.

This is a tad confusing, though, because Grail has no rivals in the field.

The entire debacle has the scientific community wondering over the real reason, especially since Illumina developed the technology Grail used. Then, it was spun off for financing purposes, but Illumina still retained 20% ownership. Now, the company is merely taking it all back again by acquiring it.

It remains to be seen what will happen in the following months as Illumina plans to appeal the decision.

But why is Illumina still pushing through with this deal?

The reality is that the genetic testing industry is a bloodbath. It can take years for a single genetic test to complete clinical trials, receive regulatory approval, and achieve insurance coverage. This struggle is apparent in so many clinical laboratories such as Exact Sciences (EXAS), Invitae (NVTA), Guardant Health (GH), and Natera (NTRA). Even Grail lost so much while developing its cancer blood test.

Meanwhile, Illumina chooses to market clinical tests its clients have already pioneered. That way, it can still gain profits as a supplier of sequencing tools.

Hence, having Grail back in its portfolio would be a cherry on top of its current strategy.

Looking at the situation right now, it’s a mess. Nevertheless, Illumina’s main line of business is a significant segment to be a part of in the coming years.

I don’t think the company would spend this much time and effort on Grail unless the future payoff would be substantial. Think about it: detecting cancers early? How incredible is this technology? How many lives would be saved because of it?

The long-term investing thesis for betting on Illumina is that it’ll most likely continue to deploy its gene sequencing devices globally, generating more recurring revenue flows in the process.

Simultaneously, the company can expand its domain knowledge and gather a copious amount of data for R&D that would equip it against competitors.

Basically, it has found a way to lock in customers for years while being several steps ahead of its rivals.

As confusing and grim the situation may be, for now, I believe Illumina stock is an excellent investment with or without Grail (but I hope it finds a way to be with it).

 

illumina stock

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 3, 2021

Biotech Letter

 

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
June 1, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

ANOTHER BUY-THE-DIP OPPORTUNITY DROPPED IN OUR LAPS
(AMGN), (QGEN), (GH), (AZN), (MRTX), (LLY), (JNJ), (SNY), (JNJ)

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