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Tag Archive for: (GILD)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Stock to Add to Your Retirement Portfolio

Biotech Letter

Building a retirement portfolio is different from when you’re aggressively playing the market. With this, you’d want something with less risk and more stability. A healthy helping of income definitely wouldn’t hurt either.

Taking these into consideration, a particular stock that offers a well-balanced mix of income and capital appreciation comes to mind: Merck (MRK).

The biggest news for Merck recently is its $1.2 billion deal with the US government involving its experimental COVID-19 antiviral.

The treatment, called Molnupiravir, is expected to cost about $700 per course, putting the total of the order from the US to 1.7 million courses.

This is just the beginning though. According to Merck and its partner, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, they can produce at least 10 million courses of Molnupiravir by the end of 2021.

If we use the same pricing as the US, then we can expect approximately $7.1 billion in sales for Molnupiravir alone this year.

Still, the $1.2 billion deal with the US is already a massive win for Merck as experts initially estimated that Molnupiravir sales would only reach $25 million this year.

What makes Molnupiravir unique and more advantageous than its competitors is that the drug is taken orally.

The convenience alone easily edges out the other monoclonal antibody therapies from the likes of Regeneron (REGN), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and Eli Lilly (LLY)—all of which need to be administered intravenously. 

If Molnupiravir does gain emergency use authorization from the FDA, its sole competitor in the market today is Veklury from Gilead Sciences (GILD).

To offer an idea on the size of the market for this treatment, Gilead recorded $2.8 billion in sales of Veklury in 2020. This figure is even projected to go up to $2.9 billion for this year.

Apart from its COVID-19 program, Merck has always been a favorite among value investors.

It’s a great dividend stock and has gained a reputable name in the industry as being one of the biggest and oldest companies in this field.

It’s also the force behind blockbuster treatments like the top-selling cancer drug Keytruda, HPV vaccine Gardasil, and of course, the diabetes medication Januvia.

In fact, Keytruda is estimated to become the No. 1 selling drug in the world by 2023—an achievement that Merck has lots of time to capitalize on considering that the treatment’s patent exclusivity lasts until 2028.

Keytruda is a key revenue generator for Merck, with the cancer drug showing off a 19% jump to reach $3.9 billion in sales in the first quarter of 2021.

This puts it on track to rake in roughly $16 billion in sales for this year, showcasing an 11% increase from 2020.

By 2026, Keytruda is estimated to generate $24.32 billion in sales annually.

Apart from Keytruda, Merck has been boosting its pipeline as well. For example, Bridion, one of its newer drugs, raked in $1.2 billion in sales in the first quarter, which is up 6% year-over-year.

Looking at its history, Merck has repeatedly shown that it can compete aggressively in the biopharmaceutical industry.

In 2020, the company still managed to generate $48 billion in sales despite the pandemic, with an earnings per share of $5.94—a value that’s 65% stronger than it was just five years ago.

Its strong profit growth and promising pipeline programs have allowed the company to boost its dividend payout at an impressive 7.1% pace over the past years.

This is a performance that most blue-chip companies, regardless of their size and market cap, struggle to keep up with.

Merck isn’t as exciting as the other stocks in the biotechnology and healthcare market, but that’s a comforting thought for investors who are on the lookout for a stable business.

Although Merck stock is not dirt cheap, I think it’s attractive for those who have extra cash or are hesitant to roll the dice on more volatile companies today.

merck stock

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-06-15 16:00:352021-06-17 18:28:53A Stock to Add to Your Retirement Portfolio
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 20, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
May 20, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(REGENERATED REGENERON)
(REGN), (PFE), (JNJ), (AMGN), (BMY), (GILD), (MRK), (LLY), (SNY), (BAYRY), (NVS), (RHHBY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-05-20 15:02:392021-05-20 16:38:43May 20, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Regenerated Regeneron

Biotech Letter

The biotechnology and healthcare sectors have become attractive investment targets for investors who recognize the value and essence of these industries along with the possible risks associated with them.

While not all companies in these areas are great investments, some offer remarkable growth opportunities.

One company worth considering is Regeneron (REGN), with its strong and stable investment thesis and steady organic growth.

Regeneron joins the ranks of Pfizer (PFE) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) as one of the handful of biopharmaceutical companies to release solid first quarter results this 2021 compared to other big names in the industry, including Amgen (AMGN), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Merck (MRK), and Eli Lilly (LLY). 

The New York-based company reported a 38% boost in its revenue compared to the same period in 2020, reaching $2.5 billion for the first quarter of 2021 alone.

Virtually all of Regeneron’s products generated solid growth during this period, with the company’s COVID-19 antibody cocktail REGEN-COV delivering the highest sales at $262 million.

To underscore just how significant REGEN-COV is to Regeneron this quarter, its absence from the roster would take away 18% from the company’s overall revenue growth.

Riding the momentum of its COVID-19 program, Regeneron has developed Inmazeb, which is a treatment for Ebola virus infection.

Aside from its COVID-19 antibody cocktail, Regeneron also saw an impressive boost in the performance of its atopic dermatitis drug Dupixent.

Dupixent, which Regeneron sells in partnership with Sanofi (SNY), generated $1.26 billion in sales in the first quarter, showing off a notable 48% increase from its 2020 report.

Although Dupixent is a shared product with Sanofi, this dermatitis drug holds incredible promise for Regeneron.

To date, only 6% of eligible patients are being treated with Dupixent. This indicates a massive space that is yet to be explored by both companies.

Taking into consideration the pace at which Dupixent has been growing so far, this drug is projected to peak at roughly $12.5 billion in sales in the coming years.

Another high-selling drug for Regeneron is wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) treatment Eylea.

Sales for this drug, which was developed in collaboration with Bayer (BAYRY), went up from $1.2 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to $1.3 billion this year.

The increase in sales for Eylea is a welcome surprise for both Regeneron and Bayer, especially since more and more competitors are attempting to topple the drug as the top product in the niche.

Cornering the AMD segment is an attractive venture for any biopharmaceutical company.

After all, Eylea generated $4.9 billion in sales in 2020 from the US market alone.

Thus far, two main competitors have come forward as the strongest.

One is Novartis (NVS), which released Beovu in 2019.

The second, and possibly the stronger competitor between the two, is Roche (RHHBY) with Faricimab.

To ensure its dominance in the AMD market, Regeneron has been expanding the use of Eylea.

The latest development is the drug’s enrollment in the Phase 3 program, which would allow extended periods in between treatments but still deliver the same level of efficacy and safety.

Aside from these, Regeneron is looking into additional revenue streams ahead.

One growth segment is its oncology program, particularly its cancer drug Libtayo, which may soon be marketed to cover a fourth type of cancer.

Regeneron aims to submit Libtayo for review as a treatment for advanced cervical cancer.

On top of this, the drug is also a strong contender in the development of several antibody treatments.

Thus far, the company has 12 oncology antibodies under clinical development.

Overall, Regeneron’s strong results for the first quarter of 2021 highlighted its continuous evolution into a company carrying multiple and diverse portfolios of products and pipeline programs that address an extensive range of serious diseases, from COVID-19 and rare diseases to cancer.

regeneron

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-05-20 15:00:332021-05-29 19:53:46Regenerated Regeneron
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 6, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
May 6, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(THE WHITE KNIGHT OF BIOPHARMA)
(PFE), (AMGN), (BMY), (LLY), (GILD), (MRK), (BNTX), (VTRS), (GSK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-05-06 15:02:222021-05-07 09:26:13May 6, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The White Knight of Biopharma

Biotech Letter

After a week of dissatisfying earnings reports from huge biopharmaceutical firms like Amgen (AMGN), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Eli Lilly (LLY), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Merck (MRK), one company has managed to buck the trend: Pfizer (PFE).

In its first quarter earnings report for 2021, Pfizer reported adjusted diluted earnings of 93 cents per share, surpassing the earlier experts’ estimate of 77 cents.

Even its reported revenue exceeded the earlier predictions of $13.4 billion, raking in $14.6 billion during the period instead.

Aside from those, Pfizer also massively boosted its projected revenue from the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with BioNTech (BNTX).

Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine is slated for approval to be used for 12- to 15-year-olds by next week.

On top of these, the company expects data from its third COVID-19 vaccine candidate. This recent trial is for a booster dose, which could have results by early July and possibly a full emergency approval later on the same month.

The company now estimates $26 billion in sales for the vaccine, which is notably up from its $15 billion projection in February 2021.

Pfizer is also confident in its capacity to manufacture at least 3 billion doses of the COVID-19 vaccine in 2022, with the company already negotiating agreements with countries for their 2022 supply and beyond.

While the huge boost in the company’s COVID-19 vaccine sales expectations definitely grabs headlines, Pfizer’s base business brought in notable results as well.

Apart from the vaccine, the company’s operational growth in the first quarter was mostly driven by the sales from its blood clot treatment Eliquis, which went up by 25% operationally.

Sales of its heart drug Vyndagel soared by 88%, while its cancer drug Xeljanz jumped 18%.

One of the most notable moves from Pfizer is spinning off its off-patent drug division, Upjohn, to form a new company with generic drug developer Mylan, called Viatris (VTRS).

This decision would rid Pfizer of several well-known products, such as Viagra, Lyrica, Lipitor, Celebrex, and Chantix, which were responsible for roughly 15% of its total revenues.

However, sales for these items fell by 30% in the first nine months of 2020 alone—a chronically falling performance since 2017.

By eliminating the products that no longer hold any exclusivity rights and signing them off to Viatris, Pfizer can focus on developing and marketing new and innovative treatments.

So far, this strategy has started to bear fruit.

At the moment, Pfizer has several attractive assets in its pipeline. One of them is non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treatment Lorbrena, which could become one of the highest-selling products in the oncology market.

Lorbrena is estimated to grow to over $40 billion each year by the mid-2020s.

At this point, the drug is in its registration phase and was granted a priority-review status. That means approval is on the horizon in the not-so-distant future.

Other potential blockbuster oncology assets include prostate cancer drug Xtandi, NSCLC treatment Bavencio, and breast cancer medication Ibrance.

All these are in late-stage trials, which means they should be available to market soon.

In total, Pfizer currently has at least 33 drugs queued in either Phase 3 trials or registration. The list includes vaccine candidates, immunology treatments, and, of course, oncology assets.

While Pfizer lost Upjohn in 2020, it gained a new partner in GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). The two companies decided to merge their consumer healthcare programs.

This made them the biggest provider of non-prescription drugs across the globe.

By shedding its sluggishly growing assets, Pfizer managed to develop its culture into one that concentrates on developing and marketing new and innovative products.

Additionally, the company’s current portfolio holds several growing products with the potential for expansion.

Given all these changes, Pfizer raised its financial guidance for 2021 as well.

For this year, the company now estimates adjusted diluted earnings to be valued between $3.55 and $3.65 per share compared to the previous range of $3.10 to $3.20 per share.

In terms of its full-year revenue, the company raised it from its estimate between $59.4 billion and $61.4 billion to $70.50 billion and $72.5 billion.

In terms of its projected revenue compound annual growth rate, Pfizer reconfirmed that it could deliver at least 6% through 2025 and a double-digit growth on its bottom line.

Remarkably, this is still not taking into consideration its COVID-19 vaccine.

If you pull out the revenues from its COVID-19 vaccine, then the company’s projected EPS growth for 2021 is at 15%.

Adding the vaccine into the equation gives us an impressive 41% increase in its EPS.

If you consider the wild card that is Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, which would include a price increase coupled with the possibility of booster shots administered annually, and combine it with its base business, then it’s easy to see how the company’s growth could be turbocharged in the next few years.

 

Pfizer covid

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-05-06 15:00:192021-05-18 18:30:18The White Knight of Biopharma
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 27, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
April 27, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(THE FUTURE OF MEDICINE)
(CRSP), (VRTX), (EDIT), (NTLA), (PFE), (NVS), (GILD), (RHHBY),
(BMRN), (QURE), (SGMO), (CLLS), (ALLO), (BEAM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-27 14:02:352021-04-28 12:12:50April 27, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Future of Medicine

Biotech Letter

Winning the Nobel Prize in 2020 provided biotechnology companies more traction on Wall Street.

The victory led to commercializing the 2012 discovery, Crispr-Cas9, at breakneck speed, with gene editing companies like CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Editas Medicine (EDIT), and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) gaining considerable boost in their values.

Since then, the total market value for the products of these three has more than doubled in recent months to reach $23 billion.

Basically, Crispr-Cas9 functions like molecular scissors.

What makes this technology incredible is that Crispr-Cas9 can classify a single address out of 3 billion letters within the genome by using only a particular sequence. With this, we can repair thousands of genetic conditions and even offer more potent ways to battle cancer.

The market favorite among the gene editing companies so far is CRISPR Therapeutics, with $8.72 billion in market capitalization.

In comparison, Editas has $2.76 billion while Intellia Therapeutics has $4.15 billion.

CRISPR Therapeutics is currently working on a treatment that would implant tumor-targeting immune cells in cancer patients. The company is also prioritizing therapies that could edit cells to treat diabetes.

So far, it has made significant progress in developing treatments for a genetic disorder called sickle cell.

In the US alone, at least 100,000 people suffer from sickle cell disease, with 4,000 more born every year. Conservatively, we can estimate at least 3,000 patients availing of this one-time treatment at over $1.6 million a pop. 

To date, CRISPR Therapeutics has five candidates under clinical trials for diseases like B-thalassemia, sickle cell disease, and other regenerative conditions.

It has four more queued, which target diabetes, cystic fibrosis, and Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Compared to its rivals in the space, it’s clear that CRISPR Therapeutics is ahead when it comes to product development and trials.

Two of its candidates, transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia treatment CTX001 and sickle cell disease therapy CTX110, have already been submitted for clinical tests for safety and efficacy.

Recently, Vertex (VRTX) boosted its 2015 agreement with CRISPR Therapeutics by 10%, with the deal reaching $900 million upfront to push for quicker results in developing CTX001.

This is a crucial move for Vertex, but more so for CRISPR Therapeutics as CTX001 holds a highly lucrative addressable market.

The additional funding significantly widened the gap between the Vertex-CRISPR team and bluebird bio (BLUE) in the race to launch a new gene editing therapy targeting sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia.

To sustain its growth, CRISPR Therapeutics’ strategy is to develop drugs that only require mid-level complexity but can rake in generous financial rewards.

This is a similar tactic used by bigger and more established biotechnology companies like Pfizer (PFE), Novartis (NVS), and Gilead Sciences (GILD).

Evidently, this strategy is a great way to ensure cash flow.

Aside from its earning from the commercialization of these products, CRISPR Therapeutics can also attract larger companies to buy the intellectual property of their breakthrough treatments.

After all, startups generally get 100% premiums in contracts with Big Pharma.

Good examples of this are Novartis that bought AveXis and Roche’s (RHHBY) purchase of Spark Therapeutics.

The Roche-Spark agreement led to the first-ever FDA-approved treatment since gene therapy trials started in the 1990s. It was for the genetic blindness therapy Luxturna, which received the green light in 2017.

The second approved treatment was a muscle-wasting disease therapy Zolgensma, which was the fruit of the Novartis-Avexis acquisition.

Both conditions are rare, but the financial rewards are impressive.

At $2 million for each treatment, Zolgensma sales reached $1.2 billion annually. At the rate the therapy is selling, Novartis estimates that Zolgensma will surpass the $2 billion mark in 2021.

Novartis and Roche aren’t the only ones partnering with smaller gene editing companies.

Pfizer has been working with biotechnology companies BioMarin Pharmaceutics (BMRN) and UniQure (QURE) to develop a treatment for blood-clotting disorder hemophilia.

The COVID-19 frontrunner is also collaborating with Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) to come up with a treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Gene editing has also served as the foundation for several biotechnology companies out there today like Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), Cellectis (CLLS), and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO).

The market size for gene editing treatments is estimated to be worth $11.2 billion by 2025, with the number rising between $15.79 billion to $18.1 billion by 2027.

This puts the compounded annual growth rate of this sector to be at least roughly 17%.

While this is already groundbreaking with only a handful of companies knowing how to utilize the technology, the gene editing world has come up with a more advanced technique than Crispr-Cas9.

The technology is founded on the “base editing” or “prime editing” technique, which is the simplest type of gene editing that alters only one DNA letter.

So far, one company holds exclusive rights to this technology: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM).

When the technology became public, Beam stock has increased sixfold since its IPO in February 2020.

This latest development can resolve thousands of genetic diseases. However, it still requires further trials since “base editing” can also trigger damaging responses from the body.

Overall, I think CRISPR Therapeutics is the safest among these high-risk stocks.

The data from two of its candidates, CTX001 and CTX110, are incredibly promising. Plus, the added funding from Vertex boosts the confidence of investors that regulatory approval is well on its way.

The company is also capitalizing on the surging price of its stock and investing aggressively across different rare disease programs.

While the company has yet to be considered a major force in the biotechnology world, the potential multiple successes of its products could generate a company worth hundreds of billions.

This potential alone offers an investing opportunity with a substantial asymmetric advantage for its current share price.

However, bear in mind that the stock is still a risk and should be played as a long-term investment. Hence, you should buy on dips.

crispr

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-27 14:00:382021-05-03 00:58:43The Future of Medicine
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 18, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 18, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(A BLUE CHIP STOCK SELLING AT A DISCOUNT)
(LLY), (GILD), (REGN), (SNY), (AMGN), (TEVA), (NVO), (ABBV), (BMY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-03-18 14:02:232021-03-18 15:18:47March 18, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Blue Chip Stock Selling at a Discount

Biotech Letter

It’s not unheard of in the biotechnology industry to watch the stock prices of small or even mid-cap drug developers rise and fall by 30% following trial results or new drug approval.

However, when the company is Eli Lilly (LLY), which holds a $179 billion market capitalization, then biotech investors need to pay attention.

After all, the only plausible conclusion to draw from this is that there have been some seismic advancements done by the company.

Two potentially breakthrough treatments are the culprit behind the volatility in Eli Lilly stock these days.

The first is Eli Lilly’s COVID-19 program, in which the company is looking into using Bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555) solo or combining it with Etesevimab (LY-CoV016).

What we know so far is that the combo drug can lower the risk of death and hospitalization among high-risk COVID-19 patients by as high as 87%.

In November 2020, the FDA granted Eli Lilly’s Bamlanivimab Emergency Use Authorization.

The solo treatment was also authorized for the same usage in Morocco, Europe, Canada, Rwanda, and some regions of the Middle East, where Eli Lilly is collaborating with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for distribution.

Last February 2021, its combo treatment received the same approval.

To date, Eli Lilly has shipped roughly 1 million doses of Bamlanivimab and is committed to supplying an additional 1 million this quarter.

To meet the demand for the Bamlanivimab-Etesevimab combo, Eli Lilly will be working with pharmaceutical titan Amgen (AMGN).

In the company’s 2020 earnings report, Eli Lilly disclosed that Bamlanivimab accounted for $871 million of their sales.

For 2021, the market for COVID-19 treatments is valued at $27.25 billion.

Taking into consideration the competitors coming up with similar medications, such as Gilead Sciences (GILD), Regeneron (REGN), and Sanofi (SNY), the conservative estimate for the sales for Bamlanivimab alone is estimated to reach roughly $1 billion to $2 billion this year.

The second potential breakthrough that’s affecting Eli Lilly’s prices is its Alzheimer’s disease treatment, Donanemab.

Eli Lilly recently released positive data from the Phase 2 trial of Donanemab, with the treatment slowing down cognitive decline by 32% after 76 weeks.

In fact, a notable decline was already observed among the patients as early as 36 weeks.

This is an impressive result, and there’s talk that Eli Lilly’s plan of possible commercialization of Donanemab by 2024 could be fast-tracked to as early as the first half of 2023.

Interestingly, the positive news was met with negative reactions by the investors.

Eli Lilly fell by 9% following the Donanemab update, sending shares tumbling from $208.18 to $189.16.

This reaction effectively erased almost $20 billion in the company’s market value.

The negative reaction to Eli Lilly’s news may be stemming from the pending application of Biogen’s (BIIB) own Alzheimer’s drug, Aducanumab, which is expected to receive word from the FDA by June.

Investors anticipate that Aducanumab’s performance would be indicative of Donanemab’s future.

Looking at the trial results though, I can say that this shouldn’t be the case. Since the beginning, Donanemab has outperformed Aducanumab in practically every aspect.

Either way, what cannot be denied here is the market opportunity.

When the market thought that Aducanumab would get FDA approval in November 2020, the share price of Biogen saw a whopping 44% jump from $246 to $354 overnight.

Meanwhile, Donanemab’s potential sales volumes have been estimated to reach over $10 billion annually. 

Other than Donanemab, Eli Lilly has been developing more contenders to boost its neuroscience division. Right now, this segment generates 6.3% of the company’s total revenues.

One of the promising drugs in the portfolio is migraine treatment Emgality, which recorded a 123% increase in sales last year to hit $362 million.

Thus far, Emgality holds at least 31% of the migraine market and still has room for growth and expansion.

This is a remarkable performance considering that its competitors include Amgen’s Aimovig and Teva’s (TEVA) Ajovy.

Another solid earner is antidepressant treatment Cymbalta, which generated over $768 million in sales last year, up by 5% year-on-year.

Outside its neuroscience efforts, one of Eli Lilly’s strongest growth drivers is its diabetes franchise.

This segment accounts for roughly 47% of its revenues and is led by Trulicity with $5 billion in sales last year, up 23% year-over-year.

Eli Lilly’s diabetes program has grown so much in the past years that it now aggressively competes against Novo Nordisk (NVO), a monopoly-like presence in this space.

In fact, Trulicity has been able to successfully protect its own market share against Novo’s heavily marketed Rybelsus, with data showing that users of Eli Lilly’s diabetes injectable recorded 60% adherence levels compared to Novo’s 43%.

In terms of expansion, Eli Lilly also won a new approval for Trulicity to be used to treat cardiovascular conditions as well.

This additional indication puts Trulicity’s peak sales at roughly $7.43 billion.

In an effort to corner the diabetes market, Eli Lilly also developed Tirzepatide.

Basically, this treatment is a long-term hedge against the pending loss of Trulicity’s patent exclusivity by 2027.

However, Tirzepatide is projected to surpass its predecessor in sales and reach double-digit billions.

Overall, Eli Lilly has positioned itself well in the diabetes market.

While it’s engaged in an aggressive battle for dominance against Novo Nordisk, there’s a lot of room for both.

The diabetes treatment segment is a continuously expanding market, with its value doubling in size from 2015 to 2015. Within this period, this market is projected to grow from $31 billion to $59 billion.

Aside from its diabetes and neuroscience programs, Eli Lilly has also been active in developing its immunology and oncology segments.

This is an ambitious plan, considering that practically all pharmaceutical companies are working on treatments in this space.

After all, the auto-immune market is massive as it’s worth well over $50 billion.

One of the bestsellers in Eli Lilly’s portfolio is plaque psoriasis treatment Taltz, which grew its sales by 31% year-over-year to reach $1.8 billion last year.

Some of the major competitors in this space are Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) with Zeposia, Sanofi’s Dupixent, and AbbVie’s (ABBV) Skyrizi.

What could be promising news for Eli Lilly is the fact that AbbVie’s ultra-bestseller Humira is going off-patent by 2023.

This means that it could open up the market to allow both Taltz and Olumiant, another top-selling Eli Lilly treatment, to grab part of the lucrative market share.

Ultimately, Eli Lilly is a business that offers a promising commercialized portfolio and a remarkable near-term pipeline, which can reasonably support an annual revenue growth rate of roughly 10% even if we don’t factor in the effects of Donanemab.

Apart from the potential aftermath of the pending Biogen news, the fall in Eli Lilly’s shares could also be attributed to the extremely high expectation of investors.

Alzheimer’s has no approved cure, and there are only a handful of treatments developed from this neurological disease—none of which are even marginally effective.

It’s normal for investors to be wary of positive data results since they’ve been down this road before and are merely attempting to temper their excitement.

Amid the selloff, I believe that Donanemab is far from a lost cause. More importantly, I think the drop in Eli Lilly’s share price presents a rare buying opportunity for investors.

Therefore, I advise buying the dip.

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 2, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 2, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(ANOTHER PLAYER JOINS THE ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE DRUG RACE)
(SAVA), (PFE), (HLUYY), (LLY), (AVXL), (CRTX), (BIIB), (GILD)

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