Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 11, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NOT NOW, BUT SOON)
(JNJ), (NVO), (LLY), (AMGN), (GILD), (ABBV), (BMY)
Tag Archive for: (NVO)
During times of market turbulence, many investors may find themselves hesitant to participate due to the uncertainty and risks involved. However, one potential strategy to weather the storm could be to seek out dividend stocks.
By investing in these types of equities, individuals can find a sense of stability and security, as they often offer a reliable source of income regardless of market fluctuations. In short, dividend stocks can serve as a safe harbor amid a choppy investment climate.
If you're looking for a healthcare stock with some serious street cred, check out Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
Before delving into the company, knowing that JNJ’s stock price isn't exactly bargain-bin material is crucial. Still, it's not the most expensive pharmaceutical company out there, either. Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) are commanding higher valuations, while JNJ’s peers like Amgen (AMGN), Gilead Sciences (GILD), AbbVie (ABBV), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) are trading at a lower price-to-free-cash-flow ratio.
Let's not forget that JNJ isn't just a one-trick pony in the pharmaceutical game.
With around 30% of its revenue from medical devices, we can't compare it apples-to-apples with other pharma companies. Peers in the medical devices sector typically trade at higher valuation multiples, so it's essential to keep that in mind when evaluating JNJ's price-to-free-cash-flow ratio.
Moreover, this mega-brand dominates both the pharmaceutical and consumer goods scenes. With fingers in many pies - pharma, med tech, and consumer goods - JNJ has made quite the name for itself.
Despite being a seasoned player, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) still has some spring in its step; come year-end, the company will be shaking things up with a spin-off of its consumer segment into a new entity, Kenvue.
JNJ’s upcoming spin-off is about sharpening its focus on what matters - its pharma business. And for good reason - this is where the big bucks are made.
The healthcare giant’s immunology and cancer drugs are outperforming the rest of the pack, with two key players, Stelara and Tremfya, delivering some serious sales growth last year. Together, they raked in a cool $12.3 billion, proving that sometimes, less really is more.
JNJ’s pharma segment is crushing it. Darzalex, the multiple myeloma med, racked up an impressive $8 billion in sales, a 32% boost from the previous year. Meanwhile, prostate cancer drug Erleada wasn't far behind, with a 45.7% increase in sales to $1.9 billion.
All in all, JNJ's pharma segment hauled in a massive $52.5 billion in revenue in 2022. Not too shabby.
Looking deeper into its performance in fiscal 2022, JNJ reported a slight increase of 1.2% YoY in sales, reaching $94.9 billion, but currency effects had a negative impact. However, adjusted earnings per share increased by 3.6% YoY, with operational growth at 9.2%.
The "Consumer Health" segment reported a 0.5% decline in revenue, but adjusted operating growth was 3.6%.
The "Pharmaceuticals" segment, responsible for more than half of revenue, increased sales by 1.7% YoY to $52.6 billion, with operational growth at 6.7%.
The "MedTech" segment increased revenue by 1.4% YoY to $27.4 billion, with operational growth at 6.2%.
For fiscal 2023, Johnson & Johnson is expecting revenue growth of 4.5% to 5.5% and adjusted earnings per share growth of 3% to 5%.
Despite the positive reports, JNJ investors are still anxious about the future primarily because of the impending patent expirations of existing products. Unfortunately, the company is heading towards a patent cliff, as it faces the challenge of replacing revenue from products with expiring patents.
Stelara generated $9.7 billion in revenue in fiscal 2022 and will lose patent protection in 2023. Simponi, which generated $2.2 billion in revenue in fiscal 2022 and will lose patent protection in 2024, are two of the biggest concerns.
These two products account for 12.5% of the company's total revenue and 22.5% of the pharmaceutical segment revenue. Replacing these sales will not be an easy feat.
Additionally, in 2027, JNJ will lose patent protection for two other vital drugs - Xarelto and Imbruvica, which generated $2.5 billion and $3.8 billion in revenue in fiscal 2022.
To resolve these concerns, JNJ is putting its money where its mouth is regarding innovation. The company invested a whopping $14.6 billion in R&D in 2022 alone, and it looks like it's paying off. With plenty of promising drugs in the pipeline, JNJ is poised to continue its growth trajectory in the coming years.
When it comes to dividends, JNJ is royalty. With a 60-year track record of annual dividend increases, JNJ company has earned the coveted title of Dividend King.
JNJ boasts a healthy payout ratio of 41% and a juicy dividend yield of 2.8%, well above the S&P 500's average yield of 1.7%. The company's steady cash flow quickly covers these payouts, making it a solid choice for investors seeking reliable income.
While JNJ may be a top-notch investment option in the long run, the current market conditions make it a tad pricey. So, for now, just give it a spot on your watchlist and wait for the dip to go for a bargain. Remember, patience is not just a virtue but also a lucrative strategy in investing.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
March 2, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AN UNBEATABLE STOCK REFORMING THE SECTOR)
(LLY), (JNJ), (SNY), (NVO)
After starting 2023 with such great promise, practically all major stock indexes in the United States fell last month. Stocks dipped because of the unrelentingly rising inflation, which economists anticipate to lead to another round of seemingly unstoppable interest rate hikes later in the year.
What can stock investors do in this climate?
The ideal stocks in this situation are those defensive in nature because they tend to be less reactive or sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. As a result, defensive stocks deliver relatively solid price performance in bear and bull markets.
Defensive stocks are companies whose products or services are considered essential or necessary, regardless of economic conditions. These companies typically provide products or services that people and businesses cannot easily do without, such as healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples. Because these companies are less susceptible to fluctuations in the economy, they are often viewed as a safe investment option during times of market uncertainty.
Eli Lilly (LLY) stands out as one of the best defensive stocks in the biotechnology and healthcare sector today.
With over 38,000 employees across the globe and products commercially available in at least 120 countries, the company is no doubt a dominant presence in the industry. It is a global pharmaceutical organization that develops, manufactures, and markets drugs for a wide range of medical conditions, including diabetes, cancer, and autoimmune disorders.
The company has been in operation for over 140 years and has a strong reputation for innovation and research. Apart from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Eli Lilly’s market capitalization of roughly $327 billion makes it the most prominent pharmaceutical business worldwide.
Meanwhile, Eli Lilly pays out a dividend that yields around 1.1%. Over the trailing decade, this giant drugmaker’s dividend has experienced a consistent increase of about 130%.
Given that Eli Lilly is a healthcare company that produces medicines for life-threatening and chronic conditions, it can be considered a defensive stock.
In 2022, the company’s shares gained approximately 32.4% thanks to its solid organic growth and deep and diverse new treatments and drugs pipeline. Considering its history and track record combined with the market's volatility, Eli Lilly also benefited from its image of being a “safe” stock.
Despite the uncertainties, Eli Lilly looks to be poised for another healthy run in 2023. In terms of growth, the company is projected to climb higher courtesy of its newly approved diabetes and obesity drug, Mounjaro, which shows impressive potential. The company also has a promising pipeline, with several high-value candidates in the immunology and dermatology segments expected to gain approval this year.
Recently, Eli Lilly announced that it would put a cap on the out-of-pocket expenses for insulin at $35 per month for uninsured patients and those covered by commercial insurance. The company also surprised the public by announcing its plan to lower the price of this highly controversial drug by 70%.
After drugmakers jacked up the price of insulin in the past years, this drug became the symbol of out-of-control healthcare costs.
In the US alone, over 30 million people suffer from diabetes. Of these patients, more than 7 million need to take insulin every day. The alarming part of this situation is that 1 in 7 patients who require insulin daily find their budget affected at “catastrophic” levels because of the medication’s cost. These patients allot a minimum of 40% of their disposable income to the treatment alone.
This is why Eli Lilly’s announcement marked a significant development in the sector after months of aggressive lobbying to lower the price of the drug. With the company’s decision, the pressure became more intense for other drugmakers to follow suit. Specifically, major insulin distributors like Sanofi (SNY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) are urged to apply the same rule.
All in all, Eli Lilly has a virtually recession-proof model and a positive long-term outlook. I suggest you buy the dip.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
February 7, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AN ICONIC BLUE-CHIP PHARMA SELLING AT A DISCOUNTED PRICE)
(PFE), (MRNA), (NVAX), (BNTX), (LLY), (NVO)
Pfizer (PFE) possibly contributed more than any other business in getting the world back to normal from the pandemic. It was rewarded with an impressive windfall courtesy of its twin COVID-19 programs: the blockbuster vaccine and the top-selling treatment, Paxlovid.
However, the world has already stopped fretting over COVID. As expected, Pfizer is paying the price for this turn of events. Sales of its COVID blockbusters are estimated to decline by more than 60% in 2023 after raking in a total of roughly $57 billion in 2022.
The company projects that Comirnaty vaccine sales would fall from $37.8 billion in 2022 to $13.5 billion in 2023, while Paxlovid would drop from $18.9 billion to $8 billion. After all, the United States and several countries already have massive stockpiles of the Pfizer vaccine and Paxlovid, recorded under the 2022 revenue. It would take until June 2023 to work through them.
In effect, Pfizer and other COVID plays like Moderna (MRNA), Novavax (NVAX), and BioNTech (BNTX) have fallen out of favor.
Still, Pfizer remains positive about the future of its COVID franchise. The company anticipates that 24% of Americans, or about 79 million, will get a COVID vaccine in 2023. In comparison, 31% or roughly 104 million, received the vaccine in 2022. Pfizer also expects to sustain its dominance, with a 64% market share for the vaccine alone.
Moreover, Pfizer has a robust pipeline—and pipelines are the driving force behind drug stocks.
With mRNA technology's momentum, Pfizer is optimistic about its combined flu-COVID vaccine. The company foresees around 132 million Americans lining up for this two-disease vaccine, which it hopes to launch by 2026.
Shifting the discussion away from COVID, Pfizer estimates non-COVID revenue to increase by 6% annually through 2025, then projects a similar trajectory or better every year through 2030 to hit at least $70 billion.
Announcing these projections is a bold move, especially since Pfizer faces one of the most significant patent cliffs starting 2025 to 2028. Several top-selling treatments, which generate roughly $17 billion in yearly sales, will lose patent protection and face generic competition.
Pfizer is aggressively filling these anticipated voids with acquisitions, including three exciting companies: Global Blood Therapies, Biohaven Pharmaceuticals, and Arena Pharmaceuticals.
In 2022 alone, the company spent $26 billion, which granted Pfizer access to promising drugs for sickle-cell anemia, migraines, and ulcerative colitis.
By 2030, the company projects these and its subsequent acquisitions to generate at least $25 billion in annual revenue. This means it’s still on the lookout for more acquisitions.
Actually, the company estimates that it’s just 40% on the way to hitting its target of $25 billion in 2030 revenue coming from acquired treatments. This means the company would most likely spend another $50 billion in acquisitions to reach its goal.
In terms of its internal pipeline, Pfizer’s candidates can rake in at least $20 billion in sales by 2030. Some of its key launches include vaccines for the flu, meningitis, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). It also has treatments targeting blood cancer and atopic dermatitis.
Meanwhile, its oral diabetes and obesity products, which are currently in clinical trials, have the potential to generate roughly $10 billion in annual sales. If approved, these would allow Pfizer to go head-to-head against Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO).
Overall, Pfizer is an “iconic, blue-chip company” that’s on a discount these days. It is down roughly 15% this 2023, offering an excellent window for investors who want to buy the stock.
The company trades for 13 times its estimated earnings in 2023 and yields 3.7%, which is over double the S&P’s dividend rate. With this payout, along with its solid earnings and one of the best balance sheets across the industry, Pfizer looks incredibly safe.
However, it’s essential to be realistic. Pfizer’s goal is to go through this year minimally unscathed. Although its performance in 2022 was impressively strong, with revenue surging to a whopping $100 billion compared to $42 billion in 2020, the year 2023 is a reset period for the business.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 8, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A GROWTH STOCK POISED TO BREAK RECORDS)
(LLY), (JNJ), (NVDA), (MA), (PG), (NVO), (ABBV)
The stock market has been down in the past couple of months, and the outlook still does not look all that good, considering that the issues with inflation and economic crises are showing no signs of ending anytime soon.
However, as Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger noted, long-term investors should not be too anxious over “when” the markets will recover.
Instead, he advised “to think about ‘what’ will happen versus ‘when’” as a far more efficient way to behave in these challenging times.
Bearing that advice in mind, a particular biotechnology and healthcare stock stands out and is worth considering given its promising future: Eli Lilly (LLY).
Eli Lilly has grown at a fast pace and is considered among the most prominent pharmaceutical businesses in the world, ranking second behind Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
At the moment, its market capitalization is at about $340 billion, making Eli Lilly more valuable than juggernaut Nvidia (NVDA) and other big names like Mastercard (MA) and Procter & Gamble (PG).
The most promising drug in Eli Lilly’s pipeline right now is Mounjaro, earlier known as tirzepatide, which recently received the green light from the Food and Drug Administration.
This once-a-week injection is an approved therapy that targets Type 2 diabetes. On top of that, Mounjaro can also be used as a potential weight loss drug.
While there are already existing diabetes drugs that double as weight loss treatments, mainly from Novo Nordisk (NVO), what makes Mounjaro distinct is the fact that it’s the first-ever unimolecular dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist. In layman’s terms, this treatment could function in the same way as two completely different hormones that serve to control blood sugar levels.
Now, the question is: How significant an impact is Mounjaro on Eli Lilly?
Based on data from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, about 2 in every 5 adults are classified as obese, while 1 in 11 adults suffer from severe obesity.
That’s a substantial market. More than that, the consequences of obesity are said to have ripple effects throughout the entire healthcare industry.
In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate the yearly medical costs in the United States due to obesity to be roughly $173 billion in 2019.
Following its approval, Mounjaro raked in $16 million in sales. Given its unique mechanism and the massive market it can target, Mounjaro is estimated to rake in $25 billion in peak revenue annually.
Moreover, this treatment could not only be a game changer for the company but also the entire healthcare community.
For context, Eli Lilly’s total revenue in 2021 from all its products combined was $28 billion. Needless to say, Mounjaro would put the company on track for some serious growth.
Looking at this weight loss and diabetes drug's trajectory and potential, Mounjaro can benefit Eli Lilly in the same way AbbVie (ABBV) maximized Humira. For years, Humira was hailed as the top-selling drug in the world.
While it’s set to lose its patent protection by 2023, there’s no doubt that this anti-inflammatory drug boosted the share price and bottom line of AbbVie.
Clearly, this is a business poised to become even more valuable soon. This means its current share price could be considered a bargain in the next few years.
How long it would take for Eli Lilly to make money off its pipeline remains a question mark. However, concentrating on “what” is most likely about to happen instead of “when” makes it easy to make a case for Eli Lilly being an excellent growth investment.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
October 13, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A SAFE BET IN A VOLATILE MARKET)
(AMGN), (NVO), (LLY)
The biotechnology and healthcare industry is fraught with risk. However, it’s also brimming with opportunities.
On the one hand, a new drug takes years of clinical research. On top of that, the average cost to bring each product to the market reached $1 billion between 2009 and 2018.
On the other hand, the chosen few that receive the green light from the FDA more often than not deliver on their promise to become blockbusters, raking in sales of over $1 billion every year.
This arguably justifies the risks that come with the industry.
Amgen (AMGN) has become the recent embodiment of this promise. Despite the volatility of the market in the past months, the company remains a strong player thanks to several factors that could bolster its share price.
In particular, Amgen investors are looking forward to potential gains courtesy of the pipeline of drugs slated for market release over the medium term.
The most exciting among them is its obesity drug AMG 133.
The positive data from AMG 133’s unveiling had experts excited over the drug, with many expecting it to become a multi-billion dollar revenue stream for Amgen.
As expected, Amgen will be facing stiff competition in this market, specifically between 2025 and 2030.
To date, investors have been closely monitoring the obesity segment, with two companies clearly leading the charge: Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY).
Novo Nordisk markets Wegovy, which is a shot that targets obesity by zeroing in on the glucagon-like peptide receptor, or GLP-1. This is also the same target for many diabetes treatments.
Meanwhile, Eli Lilly is working to integrate obesity as part of the conditions treated by its recently approved diabetes drug Mounjaro. Like Wegovy, this drug also targets GLP-1.
What makes it more potent is that it also targets glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptides or GIP. Both GLP-1 and GIP are hormones linked to blood sugar control.
What makes AMG 133 different from other approved and experimental treatments for obesity is that it blocks not only a particular hormone but also a specific protein involved in controlling blood sugar.
While it targets GLP-1, Amgen’s candidate works on a gut protein linked to digestion, called the gastric inhibitory polypeptide receptor, or GIPR.
The obesity market is a lucrative space since the medical world now categorizes obesity as a type of chronic illness instead of a mere consequence of lifestyle choices.
That is, obesity drugs are on the cusp of entering the mainstream primary health care system.
An apparent precedent for this opportunity is the high blood pressure sector, initially a nascent segment in the 1980s and eventually skyrocketed to a $30 billion industry by the 1990s.
In 2022, the obesity market is estimated to be worth $2.4 billion. By 2030, this space is projected to reach $54 billion.
That places all competitors in the same space, Amgen, Eli Lilly, and Novo Nordisk, in excellent positions. In fact, Novo Nordisk has been dealing with shortages of Wegovy due to rising demand.
While any upgrade or downgrade prompted by a single drug’s potential, or even multiple treatments’ potential, is exciting, it should be taken with a grain of salt.
The biotechnology and healthcare industry is continuously in flux, and any company in the sector is one major failed trial or one rival’s success away from facing trouble. Simply put, they tend to be volatile.
Amgen is not an exception to this harsh truth despite the company’s solid obesity prospects and impressive portfolio and pipeline. That means investors expecting an immediate payout following the recent developments might get disappointed.
Nonetheless, it’s also vital to remember that biotechnology and healthcare stocks tend to deliver better results than the broader market even amid the economic turmoil.
These companies seem to operate and function outside typical economic cycles, providing investors with dependable performance when most businesses are struggling.
Amgen is one of the biggest biotechnology companies in the world. It has been one of the pioneers in this segment since the 1980s. It’s also a part of the prestigious Dow 30 list of companies.
Moreover, it has a massive and diversified product portfolio, with nine treatments that individually generate more than $1 billion in sales annually.
These drugs are not only huge sellers, but also offer wide margins because of the existing restrictive and high barriers to entering the biotech world.
Hence, this enables Amgen to enjoy a remarkable pricing power and autonomy over its products while still growing its top line at a steady pace.
If you’re looking for a conservative and attractive long-term investment, then buying Amgen when the price drops wouldn’t be a bad bet.
