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Tag Archive for: (NVO)

april@madhedgefundtrader.com

From Golden Egg To Dud, And Back Again?

Biotech Letter

Remember when Pfizer (PFE) was strutting around Wall Street like a rooster in a henhouse, clucking about their $10 billion-a-year weight-loss wonder drug?

Well, that golden egg turned out to be a dud, with safety issues and side effects sending their experimental pills to the scrap heap faster than you can say "clinical trial failure."

Just when we thought Pfizer had thrown in the towel, they're back in the ring, swinging with a new once-daily version of danuglipron and pushing it towards bigger studies.

But let me tell you, the market's about as excited as I am for a vegan BBQ. Pfizer's shares nudged up a measly 0.4% upon announcement, after a brief 2.9% spike that fizzled faster than a diet soda.

Now, let's talk about the 800-pound gorillas in the room: Eli Lilly's (LLY) Zepbound and Novo Nordisk's (NVO) Wegovy.

These weekly jabs are the current darlings of the weight-loss world, but everyone and their grandmother are scrambling to get an oral GLP-1 to market. It's like watching a gold rush, except instead of pickaxes, they're wielding pipettes.

Lilly's got orfoglipron in Phase 3, with data coming faster than a day trader's heartbeat. Novo's already peddling Rybelsus, though it's about as effective as a chocolate teapot compared to the injectables.

And don't forget the up-and-comers: Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) are all elbowing for a spot at the table.

Now, I know Pfizer's trying to convince us that their once-daily danuglipron is the bee's knees, with "encouraging pharmacokinetic data." But they're as tight-lipped about side effects as a politician at a press conference.

The research world’s not completely buying it, and frankly, neither am I. We might be waiting until the cows come home - or at least until 2026 - before we see if this pill's worth its weight in gold.

Meanwhile, Pfizer's stock has been sagging like a bulldog's jowls, down 1.5% this year and a gut-wrenching 21% over the past 12 months.

They're also staring down the barrel of a $17 billion revenue nosedive by 2030 as their patents fly the coop faster than pigeons at feeding time.

So, what has Pfizer been doing to deal with these? In recent months, the company has been on an acquisition bender that'd make a Vegas high-roller blush.

They snagged cancer specialist Seagen for a cool $43 billion, aiming to have eight blockbuster cancer drugs by 2030.

They're also playing footsie with BioNTech (BNTX) again, cooking up mRNA goodies like a COVID/flu combo vaccine. And let's not forget their partnership with Flagship Pioneering in the weight loss arena.

Over the past five years, Pfizer hasn’t been shy about spending money, securing over 20 new medicine approvals.

But Wall Street's been about as impressed as a cat with a new toy - they sniff at it and walk away. The stock took a 40% nosedive in 2023, partly thanks to their obesity program face-planting.

Still, Pfizer is not giving up so easily. In fact, they’ve worked to give their lineup a facelift. New approvals are rolling in faster than a greased pig at a county fair, and their pipeline's deeper than a philosopher on a bender.

Now, here's the million-dollar question: Is Pfizer a diamond in the rough or fool's gold? The market overreacted to their COVID-19 vaccine success, and now they might be overcorrecting in the other direction.

For those of you with nerves of steel and the patience of a Zen master, Pfizer could be a steal at these prices. If you don’t have the stomach for it, then I suggest you look elsewhere.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-18 12:00:282024-07-18 12:46:43From Golden Egg To Dud, And Back Again?
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 16, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 16, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(SMALL GIANTS RISING)

(GMAB), (OPHLY), (VRTX), (INCY), (BIIB), (AHKSY), (ALNY), (ARGX), (BGNE), (MRNA), (NBIX), (BNTX), (IPSEY), (CTLT), (NVO), (LLY), (JNJ), (GILD), (ABBV), (MRK), (SNY), (BMY), (GSK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-16 12:02:382024-07-16 12:17:35July 16, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Small Giants Rising

Biotech Letter

Remember when David took down Goliath? Well, history's repeating itself in the biotech arena, and this time, David's got deep pockets and a Ph.D.

Since April, I've been watching a trend on the so-called "next-generation" players in biotech and healthcare world. It reminds me of the massive changes I witnessed in Asian markets back in the '70s.

Over the past months, companies like Genmab (GMAB), Ono Pharmaceutical (OPHLY), Vertex (VRTX), Incyte (INCY), Biogen (BIIB), and Asahi Kasei (AHKSY) have been making waves that would impress even the most seasoned surfer. And these next-gen dealmakers aren't just dipping their toes in the M&A pool - they're doing cannonballs.

With cash reserves that would make Scrooge McDuck blush, these companies are overturning industry norms, already joining the prestigious $100 billion market cap club. At this celebration, the champagne flows freely.

So, what’s the play here?

With IPOs cooling down like day-old coffee, companies eyeing public debuts are now ripe targets for acquisition, more tempting than a juicy peach.

This fresh class of biotechs, unphased by the FTC's scrutiny that acts like kryptonite to pharma giants, are acting more like rocket fuel for these agile consolidators.

They slide through regulatory gaps faster than a greased pig at a county fair, grabbing six out of ten biopharma M&A deals in the second quarter alone. They’re not just taking a slice of the pie—they’re rewriting the recipe.

And if we're talking about firepower? These newcomers boast an average of $3.8 billion in pro forma adjusted cash, which isn't just walking-around money — that's "buy a small country" money.

But don't think for a second that this cash is just sitting pretty in their coffers. These upstarts are putting their money where their mouth is.

Take Incyte, for instance. They flexed their financial muscle with a $2 billion buyback in May 2024, sending a clear message to the market: "We're here to play, and we're playing to win."

And that's just the tip of the iceberg. The industry as a whole is lounging on a cool $1.5 trillion. That's enough liquidity to stretch the imagination — perhaps even to purchase a small planet. Mars, anyone? Elon might give us a discount.

But this financial might isn't just about buying power – it's about survival. As I said before, Big Pharma is teetering on a patent cliff that threatens to erode their revenue streams. To stay competitive, they're scrambling to replenish their pipelines, acquiring promising assets and gobbling up innovative technologies with the voracity of Pac-Man on steroids. And it's not just the usual suspects making moves.

This sense of urgency has created a fertile ground for an emerging cohort of aggressive dealmakers. Companies like Alnylam (ALNY), argenx (ARGX), BeiGene (BGNE), Moderna (MRNA), Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), BioNTech (BNTX), and Ipsen (IPSEY) are biting off more than the market expected them to chew, and they're coming to the table hungry.

And these companies aren't just nibbling around the edges. They're making bold moves, acquiring cutting-edge biotech firms with promising pipelines. We're talking oncology, epilepsy, kidney diseases, cardiovascular plays –  it's like someone turned a medical textbook into a shopping catalog.

In fact, even the big boys are flexing their muscles.

Novo Holdings (NVO) dropped a jaw-dropping $16.5 billion on Catalent (CTLT). That's not even for a drug - it's for manufacturing. Talk about betting on the picks and shovels in this biotech gold rush.

Eli Lilly (LLY) just plunked down $3.2 billion on Morphic Therapeutic (MORF), betting big on inflammation, immunity, and oncology.

Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) been on a shopping spree, too, snagging Numab's Yellow Jersey for $1.25 billion and Proteologix for $850 million. Both plays in inflammation and immunity - clearly, they've found their sweet spot.

Biogen's not twiddling its thumbs either, striking a deal with HI-Bio worth up to $1.8 billion.

Not to be outdone, Gilead (GILD) shook hands with CymaBay Therapeutics to the tune of $4.3 billion. Even AbbVie (ABBV), playing it cooler, still dropped a cool $250 million on Celsius.

Meanwhile, Merck's (MRK) set its sights on EyeBio for up to $3 billion, focusing on ophthalmology.

Sanofi (SNY), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), GSK (GSK) - they're all in, placing their chips on everything from rare diseases to generics to asthma. Clearly, the Big Pharma giants are also trying to keep up with this shift. 

As the biotech field evolves, watching these underdogs will be like watching history in the making — where today's Davids become tomorrow's Goliaths. I suggest you keep a close eye on the names above. Adding them to your portfolio would mean you’re not just watching the giants rise — you’ll be a part of the story.

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-16 12:00:452024-07-16 12:17:13Small Giants Rising
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

June 13, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 13, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE TORTOISE IN THE BIOTECH RACE THAT’S ABOUT TO CROSS THE FINISH LINE)

(AMGN), (LLY), (NVO), (IMVT), (ARGX)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Tortoise In The Biotech Race That's About To Cross The Finish Line

Biotech Letter

You know how every golfer dreams of donning the green jacket at the Masters, every chess player longs for the title of Grandmaster, and every football player fantasizes about hoisting the Lombardi Trophy?

Well, healthcare and biotech companies have their own version of the ultimate dream: launching a product that's as successful as the latest weight loss drugs from Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO).

These two pharma heavyweights have been on an absolute tear, with their shares skyrocketing 611% and 471% respectively over the past five years. It's the kind of rally that'll make your head spin and your wallet sing.

And guess what? The good news just keeps on coming. Analysts have cranked up their forecast for the obesity market. They're now predicting it'll hit a jaw-dropping $130 billion by 2030, up from their previous estimate of $100 billion.

That's an extra $30 billion. I don't know about you, but I call that a pretty sweet cherry on top.

Thanks to this obesity drug frenzy, Lilly has become the world's biggest healthcare company, and Novo Nordisk is now the most valuable company in Europe. It's like watching a couple of underdogs become the kings of the castle overnight.

Now, don't get me wrong, I love a good growth story as much as the next guy, and I wouldn't bet against Lilly or Novo Nordisk. But you know what I like even more? Biotech companies that are flying under the radar. The ones that are quietly innovating and positioning themselves for big things down the road.

That's where Amgen (AMGN) comes in.

I've been singing this company's praises in almost every piece I write, and for good reason. Amgen is one of the most innovative healthcare companies out there, with a massive product portfolio, a robust pipeline, and a balance sheet that's healthier than a triathlete on a kale smoothie diet.

Let me break it down for you. Established biotech companies with strong product portfolios are like fortresses in the business world.

They've got wide moats that are harder to cross than the Strait of Gibraltar. Why? Because bringing a new drug to market costs an arm and a leg.

We're talking anywhere from $314 million to $2.8 billion, depending on who you ask. That's not exactly chump change.

But Amgen? They've got it all figured out. Their portfolio spans a variety of therapeutic areas, including general medicine, oncology, inflammation, and rare diseases.

And in the first quarter of this year, these products helped Amgen rake in a whopping $7.4 billion in revenue, a 22% increase from the same period last year.

Key drugs like Repatha, Evenity, Blincyto, and Tezpire are leading the charge, with growth rates that'll make your head spin.

Repatha alone saw record sales of $517 million, thanks to a 44% increase in volume. And get this: expanded coverage and the removal of prior authorization requirements made the drug more accessible to patients.

It's like Amgen waved a magic wand and made all the red tape disappear.

Still, Amgen isn't just content with dominating the US market. They're taking their show on the road and expanding their international footprint.

Evenity, for example, has become the segment leader in Japan, capturing a staggering 46% of the bone builder market. And Uplinza, Amgen's fastest-growing biologic for a rare neurological disorder called neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD), has been launched in multiple markets, including Canada.

Speaking of Uplinza, this little powerhouse came to Amgen via their $27.8 billion acquisition of Horizon last year. And let me tell you, it's paying off in spades.

In the first quarter of 2023, sales of Uplinza shot up by roughly 60%. And its smaller sibling, Tavneos, which targets a rare blood vessel disorder, saw a mind-boggling 122% growth.

The good news doesn't stop there. Amgen just released some hot-off-the-press Phase 3 data for Uplinza in another autoimmune condition, bringing it one step closer to yet another FDA approval.

This could put some serious pressure on competitors like Immunovant (IMVT) and argenx (ARGX), who have hit a few speed bumps lately.

Now, I know what you're thinking. "But John, what about the obesity market? Isn't that where the real action is?" Well, let me tell you, Amgen's got its fingers in that pie too.

They've got a unique obesity drug candidate called MariTide, which I talked about in detail last month, and the early clinical trial data suggests that it could blow Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk's drugs out of the water.

But Amgen isn't just about cutting-edge drugs and international expansion. They're also rewarding their shareholders with cold, hard cash.

Last December, they hiked their dividend by 5.6%, and they're now paying out $2.25 per share every quarter.

That translates to a juicy 3% yield, and it's backed by a payout ratio that's lower than a limbo stick at a beach party.

Plus, Amgen's been raising its dividend like clockwork, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 9.6% and 12 consecutive annual hikes. That's the kind of consistency that'll make any investor smile.

Overall, it’s clear that Amgen is a standout in the biotech world, plain and simple.

Besides, this company isn’t some Johnny-come-lately to the biotech game. They've been in this fight since the beginning, and their very name is proof of their founding principles. In fact, “Amgen” is a fancy-pants word for "applied molecular genetics."

That's right, when they picked that name back in 1980, they were already knee-deep in the groundbreaking science of genetic engineering, cooking up new therapies that would change the face of medicine as we know it.

So here’s my advice. When the chips are down and the stakes are high, you can never go wrong to bet on the OG of applied molecular genetics. Buy the dip on Amgen.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-13 12:00:402024-06-13 12:49:32The Tortoise In The Biotech Race That's About To Cross The Finish Line
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 21, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 21, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE FAT’S IN THE FIRE)

(RHHBY), (LLY), (NVO), (AMGN), (VKTX), (PFE), (MRK), (SNY), (ABT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-21 12:02:412024-05-21 12:22:07May 21, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Fat's In The Fire

Biotech Letter

Well, well, well, look who's decided to crash the obesity-drug party. Roche (RHHBY), the Swiss pharmaceutical giant, has just unveiled some pretty impressive early-stage results for its weight-loss drug, CT-388. And let me tell you, this could be the start of something big.

Now, I know what you're thinking: "Another weight-loss drug? Yawn." But trust me, this is no ordinary contender.

In a small trial, patients who received CT-388 saw an average placebo-adjusted weight loss of 18.8% after just 24 weeks. That's right, 18.8%.

While it's hard to compare trials, experts are saying these numbers might even give Eli Lilly's (LLY) Zepbound, the current king of the market, a run for its money.

Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture. The obesity drug market has been on fire lately, with everyone going gaga over these miracle pills.

Lilly and Novo Nordisk (NVO) have been dominating the scene with their drugs, Zepbound and Wegovy, but that hasn't stopped a whole host of other companies from trying to get a piece of the pie.

Merck (MRK), Sanofi (SNY), Abbott Labs (ABT), and Eisai have all tried their hand at weight-loss drugs and ultimately thrown in the towel.

More recently, Pfizer's (PFE) daily oral pill, danuglipron, has faced hurdles due to side effects. Amgen's (AMGN) drug, MariTide, is in Phase 2 studies and showing promise. And let's not forget Viking Therapeutics' (VKTX) VK2735, which has earned the nickname "twincretin" for its dual targeting of GLP-1 and GIP receptors.

So, what makes Roche's CT-388 so special?

Well, for starters, it's a GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, which is similar to Lilly's Zepbound. In the Phase 1 trial, all participants achieved more than 5% weight loss, with 85% losing more than 10%, 70% shedding more than 15%, and a whopping 45% dropping more than 20% of their body weight. That's some serious weight loss.

Of course, there were some side effects, mainly mild to moderate gastrointestinal issues, but hey, that's the price you pay for looking fabulous, right? Roche is also testing CT-388 in patients with Type 2 diabetes, so stay tuned for updates on that front.

Now, I know you're all dying to know how CT-388 stacks up against the competition.

Notably, the drug's data looks strong compared to earlier studies of Zepbound. In fact, CT-388's efficacy results appeared "numerically higher" than Zepbound's.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Lilly still has a multi-year lead on Roche, so CT-388 isn't an immediate threat. However, it does suggest that the future of this rapidly growing market is up for grabs.

Now, let's talk about Roche. It’s the world's seventh-largest pharma company by market cap, sitting at around $205 billion. They pulled in $65 billion in revenue in 2023, second only to Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

But here's the kicker—they've been struggling with growth, and their share price has taken a hit, down more than 25% over the past three years.

Contrast that with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Lilly's share price shot up 290% in three years, and Novo's climbed 226%.

Even though their revenues were less than half of Roche's in 2023, their market caps are sky-high. Why? Because of their blockbuster GLP-1 agonist drugs, Zepbound and Wegovy, which have shown jaw-dropping weight-loss results.

But could CT-388 be the underdog story Roche needs?

With the obesity market estimated to reach a staggering $100 billion by 2030, and over 1 billion people worldwide suffering from obesity, the potential is enormous.

Of course, there's still a long way to go for CT-388. Cross-trial comparisons can be tricky, and Roche's Phase 1 trial was much smaller than Lilly's pivotal study of Zepbound.

Plus, we don't have all the juicy details on patient characteristics, dose titration, and long-term weight loss just yet.

But here's the thing: Roche has scale and infrastructure on its side. It could potentially outmuscle smaller players like Viking and Boehringer Ingelheim.

And if CT-388 can match or even surpass the performance of current and future GLP-1 agonists? Well, let's just say those peak revenue forecasts might be in for a surprise.

So, is Roche the dark horse you should bet on in the obesity-drug race? If you're looking to get in on the action without paying the premium commanded by Lilly and Novo, or taking on the higher risk of smaller players, Roche might just be the ticket.

With promising mid-single-digit revenue growth on the horizon and a strong position in other areas like oncology and autoimmune disorders, Roche could be a smart play for anyone keen on the obesity drug market.

As for me? Well, you know I love an underdog story. And CT-388 might just be the Cinderella story of the year. I suggest you buy the dip.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-21 12:00:422024-05-21 12:21:44The Fat's In The Fire
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 7, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 7, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(PACKING A HEAVIER PUNCH)

(AMGN), (NVO), (LLY), (REGN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-07 14:03:292024-05-07 14:03:29May 7, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Packing A Heavier Punch

Biotech Letter

Amgen (AMGN) is having a moment. Early results for their injectable drug MariTide sound pretty darn promising. 

But it’s not all roses and sunshine at Amgen. The company also dropped the curtain on AMG786, an experimental oral weight-loss pill that just wasn't cutting it.

It’s tough in the pharmaceutical arena, especially since this whole weight-loss drug market is a gold rush right now. Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) are cleaning up, and even Pfizer (PFE), despite their hiccup, isn't going to roll over that quickly.

Now, back to MariTide. Calling it a "multi-blockbuster" sounds flashy, but investors want to see if it can crack the hold those big two already have. Amgen's got a decent track record though, so I wouldn't write them off just yet.

The early scoop on MariTide is pretty tantalizing. The last round of Phase 2 trials showed that three monthly shots could significantly trim the waistline, with the heftier doses keeping the pounds off for up to four months post-treatment.

Actually, MariTide’s core strength is that it’s just once-a-month jab — an easier regimen compared to the weekly routine required by current front-runners like semaglutide and tirzepatide.

Speaking of the competition, Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide and Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide have been seeing users pack the pounds back on pretty quickly after stopping treatment.

That’s not ideal, and it’s exactly the kind of opening Amgen is looking to capitalize on with MariTide.

Now, let’s broaden our scope. It's a bit of a misnomer to just call it an “obesity pipeline” because, let me tell you, this technology is dipping its toes into much more than just shedding pounds.

Those GLP-1 agonists like semaglutide and the double-duty “double G” agonists like tirzepatide? They’re not just one-trick ponies.

Aside from battling the bulge, they’re making waves in treating diabetes, slicing through cardiovascular risks, and even exploring new frontiers like osteoarthritis and sleep apnea.

Heck, they’re even peeking into Alzheimer’s prevention — Novo Nordisk is already revving up for a phase 3 trial.

Despite these lucrative offshoots though, obesity remains the arena’s juggernaut.

Novo Nordisk’s latest data, as bleak as it might seem for global health, paints a picture of a market vast enough to entice anyone. Think about it—out of 813 million people wrestling with obesity, only one million are currently on these incretin drugs.

And with projections pointing to numbers ballooning to 1.2 billion by 2030, well, the potential market is jaw-dropping.

If Amgen’s MariTide hits the mark, we could be talking about a whopping $20 billion in annual sales from just this one contender in about 7-8 years, spanning obesity and a few neighboring conditions.

That’s even if they face a dogfight over pricing and if the average price per patient hangs below what the big guns like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently pulling.

Now, think about this — current estimates peg Amgen’s growth from $33 billion this year to a modest $35.1 billion by 2033. My take? That’s wildly conservative.

If you ask me, Amgen's obesity pipeline alone, even with just modest success, could blast those numbers out of the water.

But let's not kid ourselves – MariTide alone won't make Amgen king of the obesity market. To truly capitalize on the segment’s potential, Amgen might need to consider teaming up with those emerging stars working on preserving lean body mass, or even big players like Regeneron (REGN).

They could take a couple of routes here. One slick move could be scooping up some smaller biotech firms or cozying up to bigger fish through partnerships or in-licensing deals to beef up their treatment options.

Alternatively, Amgen could play it cool and simply pair MariTide with their own upcoming products once they hit the market. Sure, this might keep things simple, but it kind of feels like leaving money on the table, isn’t it?

Admittedly, it’s still early days when it comes to these weight loss treatments. One thing's for sure: the next few years will be a wild ride for obesity drugs. After all, it’s clear that the GLP-1 craze is doing for pharma what AI hype is doing for tech stocks. It’s like a rising tide lifting all boats.

Looking ahead, the big winners in the next 18 months are looking to be Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. These guys are leading the pack, while others might just not make it to the finish line, ending up as flops in the stock market drama.

Yet, through all this, Amgen stands out as a dark horse.

Even if the obesity pipeline doesn't turn out to be their golden ticket, Amgen's strategic positioning could still deliver solid long-term value.

But, and here’s the kicker, if MariTide and its potential combo treatments hit their stride as hoped, Amgen could sprint ahead in this fast-paced market race — not just in obesity but in those juicy, adjacent niches too. This could spark some serious value creation that current forecasts haven't even begun to factor in.

So, while the market’s getting its gears grinding, Amgen might just surprise us all. I say keep this stock on your watchlist.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-07 14:00:532024-05-07 14:03:15Packing A Heavier Punch
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 2, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 2, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(BUT WEIGHT, THERE’S MORE)

(LLY), (NVO)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-02 12:02:032024-05-02 12:28:11May 2, 2024
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