(PFE) Archives - Page 3 of 45 - Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Bright Side Of A Dark Diagnosis

Let's face it. Cancer is still kicking our collective butts.

Despite all the fancy lab coats and high-tech gadgets, cancer remains the second-leading cause of death in the U.S. It's like that annoying party guest who just won't leave, no matter how many hints you drop.

This year alone, more than 2 million Americans are expected to hear those dreaded words: "You have cancer." And sadly, over 600,000 of our fellow citizens will lose their battle with this relentless foe in 2024.

Before you start thinking I'm all doom and gloom, let me flip the script for you. Where there's a problem, there's opportunity. And in this case, we're talking about a massive opportunity to put your investment dollars to work.

Back in 2020, America shelled out a whopping $200 billion on cancer treatments. By 2030, that number is projected to skyrocket to over $245 billion. That's a growth trajectory that’s worth our attention, don’t you think?

So, let's dive into the world of cancer-fighting stocks. There are some heavy hitters in this space that deserve your attention.

First up, we've got Illumina (ILMN), the gene-sequencing giant. These folks are like the Sherlock Holmes of the genetic world, helping researchers crack the cancer code.

With over 21,600 of their systems installed worldwide, Illumina is the go-to company for anyone looking to dive deep into our genetic makeup.

But here's the thing - Illumina isn't just about cancer. Their tech is used in everything from studying infectious diseases to figuring out if your unborn baby is likely to be the next Einstein.

And while they're tight-lipped about their exact market share, word on the street is they're still the big fish in the gene-sequencing pond.

In fact, let me throw some numbers at you. Illumina holds a whopping 80% market share among the seven main pure-play next-generation sequencing companies.

Even if we toss in some non-pure-play heavyweights like Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Agilent Technologies (A), and Qiagen (QGEN), Illumina's still sitting pretty with roughly two-thirds of the global market.

And get this - despite the industry facing some macro headwinds, Illumina's market share has held steady over the past couple of years. Talk about staying power.

Speaking of big fish, Illumina recently spun off Grail (GRAL), but they've still got their fingers in that pie with a 14.5% stake.

Grail is all about liquid biopsy products – fancy talk for finding cancer through a simple blood test. It's a promising field, but Illumina's not the only player in town.

Enter the new kids on the block: Element Biosciences and Ultima Genomics. Backed by venture capital and hungry for a piece of the action, these upstarts are shaking things up. Element's focusing on accuracy, while Ultima's all about high-volume, low-cost sequencing.

While we're on the topic of liquid biopsies, let's talk about Guardant Health (GH). These folks are the pioneers in finding tiny bits of tumor DNA floating around in your blood. Their Guardant360 product was the first FDA-approved liquid biopsy for all advanced solid tumors. That's like hitting a home run in your first major league at-bat.

But Guardant Health isn't resting on its laurels. They've got a whole suite of products, from tissue biopsies to tests that can tell if your cancer treatment is working. And get this – they're looking at a $30 billion annual market just in cancer treatment selection and recurrence monitoring.

But it doesn't end there. Early-stage cancer detection could add another $50 billion to that pot in the U.S. alone.

As if that wasn't enough, Guardant Health just got FDA approval for their Shield blood test for colorectal cancer screening in July 2024. Next stop? Lung cancer. These folks are aiming to create a test that can catch multiple cancers early.

And let's not forget the big boys. Pfizer (PFE), the pharmaceutical giant, is throwing its considerable weight into the cancer fight.

They've already got three blockbuster cancer drugs – Ibrance, Xtandi, and Inlyta – each raking in over a billion dollars a year. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. Pfizer's got about 40 more cancer programs in clinical testing.

Still, Pfizer isn't just relying on its own lab coats. They're not afraid to open up their wallet either. In 2021, they snatched up Trillium Therapeutics to beef up their blood cancer portfolio. And in 2023, they added Seagen to their collection, giving them a leg up in antibody-drug conjugates for cancer treatment.

Now, I know what you're thinking. "But what if the cancer market dries up?" (As if!) Well, Pfizer's got that covered too. They're big players in the vaccine market, with their new respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, Abrysvo, looking set to bring in some serious cash.

So there you have it. The war on cancer is far from over, but these companies are leading the charge. And while they're fighting to save lives, they might just help fatten up your portfolio too. I suggest you add these names to your watchlist and buy the dip.

October 1, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
October 1, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SAILING TO BIOTECH VALHALLA)

(VKTX), (NVO), (LLY), (AMGN), (PFE)

Sailing To Biotech Valhalla

Biotech Letter

In a market full of duds and darlings, every once in a while, you stumble upon a stock that skyrockets so fast it gives you whiplash. Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) is that stock and boy, am I glad I trusted my gut on this one.

We're talking a journey from $4 to $62 in what feels like a blink of an eye - a voyage straight to biotech Valhalla, if you will. A 1,500% gain? Somebody hand me my horn of mead – and maybe a bigger treasure chest.

See what I did there? Viking stock, sailing to Valhalla – sorry, I couldn't resist. Anyway, if you missed out on this raid, don't worry. This biotech longship is still sailing strong, and it’s only getting started.

Now, I've seen my fair share of biotech booms and busts over the years, from the dizzying heights of the genome sequencing craze to the sobering lows of failed drug trials.

But this obesity drug market? It's shaping up to be the mother of all biotech booms.

At the heart of Viking's meteoric rise is a little molecule called VK-2735, a GLP-1 / GIP receptor agonist.

In layman's terms, it's a weight loss wonder drug that's got Wall Street salivating like Pavlov's dogs at dinnertime.

And why wouldn't they? We're talking about a market that could be worth north of $150 billion annually by the early 2030s.

Let's crunch some numbers, shall we? In the first half of 2024, Novo Nordisk's (NVO) dynamic duo, Ozempic and Wegovy, raked in a cool $11.7 billion.

Not to be outdone, Eli Lilly's (LLY) tag team of Mounjaro and Zepbound pulled in $6.66 billion. That's enough cash to make even a seasoned hedge fund manager's eyes water.

But here's where it gets really interesting. Viking's VK-2735, in its Phase 2 Venture study, showed weight loss results that could make even the most stubborn bathroom scale do a double-take. We're talking up to 14.7% weight loss from baseline in just 13 weeks.

Now, before you start maxing out your credit cards to buy Viking stock, let's pump the brakes a bit. This data is still in its infancy, like a toddler taking its first wobbly steps.

We're talking about a study with just 35 patients. That's barely enough people to fill a small yoga class, let alone stake billions of dollars on.

And let's not forget about safety. While VK-2735 seems to be playing nice overall, there are a few wrinkles to iron out.

The highest dose saw a 20% dropout rate, which is about as concerning as finding a shark in your swimming pool. Most patients experienced some side effects, with nausea, diarrhea, and constipation leading the pack.

Not exactly a walk in the park, but then again, no pain, no gain, right?

Looking ahead, Viking's still got its work cut out. They're aiming to kick off a Phase 3 study by Q1 2025, which means we might not see VK-2735 hit the market until Q1 2027. In biotech years, that's practically an eternity.

But here's the kicker - this delay might actually work in Viking's favor. While they're dotting their i's and crossing their t's, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are out there doing the heavy lifting, expanding the market and greasing the wheels with insurers.

Still, Viking's not resting on its laurels. They're working on a monthly dosing regimen and an oral version of VK-2735.

If they pull that off, it could be a game-changer. After all, who wouldn't prefer popping a pill over jabbing themselves with a needle?

Of course, this isn't a one-horse race. The obesity drug market is starting to look like a biotech version of the Oklahoma Land Rush, with everyone from Amgen (AMGN) to Pfizer (PFE) trying to stake their claim.

But with $935 million in the bank and a net loss of only $50 million for the half-year, Viking's got the financial firepower to go the distance.

So, what's the play here? Well, given the market's current love affair with all things GLP-1, Viking's strong financial position, and the potential of both VK-2735 and their NASH candidate VK2809, I'm cautiously bullish on Viking stock.

It's a high-risk, high-reward proposition, but then again, isn't that what makes this game so damn exciting? Just don't forget to pack your Dramamine - this ride's bound to have some turbulence.

September 10, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 10, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE NEW SHOT CALLER)

(PCVX), (PFE), (MRK)

August 22, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 22, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BITING OFF MORE THAN THEY CAN CHEW)

(LLY), (NVO), (CTLT), (ZLDPF), (RHHBY), (AMGN), (PFE), (LZAGY), (TMO)

Biting Off More Than They Can Chew

Biotech Letter

"If you build it, they will come." But what happens when they come before you've finished building?

That's the billion-dollar question facing the makers of GLP-1 weight loss drugs.

GLP-1 drugs, the newest darlings of the pharmaceutical world, are selling like hotcakes. Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO), the current heavyweights in this arena, raked in a whopping $10.4 billion and $6.85 billion respectively last year.

Basically, the demand is there, but the supply? Well, that's another story.

So far, Lilly and Novo have been throwing money at the problem like it's going out of style. We're talking billions here. Novo's earmarked $6.5 billion for production this year alone, while Lilly's already shelled out $5.3 billion to beef up its manufacturing muscle. They're expanding facilities faster than you can say "miracle weight loss drug."

But even that's not enough. Lilly admits the industry needs at least 10 to 15 dedicated sites to even come close to meeting demand.

It's like trying to serve a five-course meal to a packed restaurant with just one chef and a microwave.

And let's not forget about the price tag on these manufacturing sites. Novo just dropped $11 billion to buy three fill-finish sites from Catalent (CTLT). Talk about paying a premium for prime real estate.

While Lilly and Novo scramble to ramp up production, their manufacturing woes have created a window of opportunity for competitors eyeing a slice of the GLP-1 pie.

Boehringer Ingelheim and Zealand Pharma (ZLDPF) are closest to market with their Phase 3 drug survodutide.

Meanwhile, Roche (RHHBY) and Amgen (AMGN) aren't far behind in Phase 2. Even Pfizer's (PFE) dipping its toes in the water with an early-stage drug.

But here's where it gets interesting for us who want a piece of the action. These newcomers are facing a manufacturing dilemma of their own.

Do they build their own facilities and risk being late to the party? Or do they outsource and potentially lose control over production?

Some, like Boehringer and Roche, are already talking about using third-party manufacturers. It's like hiring a catering company instead of building your own restaurant – less upfront cost, but you're at the mercy of someone else's kitchen.

Enter the contract manufacturing organizations (CMOs), the unsung heroes of the pharmaceutical world who might just hold the key to unlocking the full potential of the GLP-1 market.

Let’s take a look at the big players in this space.

Lonza Group (LZAGY), with its $6.6 billion in annual revenue and 10% market share in biologics contract manufacturing, is a force to be reckoned with. They're not just sitting on their laurels either – they're pumping $850 million into a new biologics facility in Switzerland.

Then there's Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), the 800-pound gorilla of the industry. With a cool $44.9 billion in revenue last year and an 8% to 10% market share in contract manufacturing, they're a go-to partner for big pharma.

They've been on a shopping spree too, scooping up Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPD) for $17.4 billion to boost their manufacturing capabilities.

And, of course, let's not forget about Catalent. They might have sold some facilities to Novo, but they're still a major player with $4.8 billion in revenue last year. They're betting big on biologics, with plans to increase capacity by 40% by 2025.

As for those looking for growth potential, keep an eye on Samsung Biologics. They're the new kid on the block, with a 30% compound annual growth rate over the past five years and the world's largest single-site biologics manufacturing facility.

So, there you have it. The obesity epidemic is a tragedy, but it's also a trillion-dollar opportunity.

With half the population projected to be obese by 2030, this isn't just a health crisis—it's a financial frontier.

The GLP-1 market is poised to balloon to $130 billion, creating a feeding frenzy for those ready to capitalize on the supply squeeze.

But here's the real meat of the matter: in this gold rush, it's not just the drug developers who are striking it rich. The real winners are the manufacturers—those with the capacity to meet the insatiable demand. They're the ones handing out the "shovels" in this weight loss bonanza.

So while everyone else is focused on the flashy GLP-1 drugs, I suggest you also keep a watchful eye on these behind-the-scenes players.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to patent my groundbreaking idea: GLP-1-infused kale chips. Who says you can't have your cake and eat it too?

August 20, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 20, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(POX POPULI)

(BVNRY), (EBS), (GOVX), (SIGA), (CMRX), (TNXP), (TMO), (ABT), (MRNA), (PFE)

Pox Populi

Biotech Letter

Hold onto your hazmat suits because the world of infectious diseases just got a lot more interesting. And if you're someone with a stomach for volatility, you might want to pay attention.

Mpox is back, and it's brought a nasty new cousin to the party. The World Health Organization (WHO) just hit the big red button, declaring the mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). That's fancy talk for "this is serious, people."

Let's break it down. We're not dealing with your garden-variety mpox here. This is a new strain, dubbed Clade Ib, and it's tearing through central Africa like a bull in a china shop.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has seen over 15,600 cases so far this year, more than all of last year. And it's not staying put.

Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda are all reporting their first-ever mpox cases. It's like watching a virus go on a world tour, minus the t-shirts and overpriced concessions.

Now, before you start panic-buying toilet paper again, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says the risk to the U.S. is very low.

But they're still telling healthcare providers to keep their eyes peeled for any funky rashes on patients who've been globe-trotting lately.

So, what do we do with this information? Well, let's talk vaccines.

Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY), the company behind the most widely used mpox vaccine, has seen its stock jump more than 30% since the WHO's announcement. It's like they won the pharmaceutical lottery.

And Uncle Sam's not shy about showing them some love – the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services just placed a $156.8 million order for a bulk vaccine product.

But they're not the only player in town.

Emergent Biosolutions (EBS), another vaccine manufacturer, also saw its stock surge when the news broke.

Even GeoVax Labs (GOVX) saw its stock shoot up 40% yesterday morning. Not bad for a company most people had never heard of last week. They're working on an MVA vaccine – that's Modified Vaccinia Ankara for you science nerds out there. It's the go-to choice for folks with weakened immune systems.

But it's not all sunshine and rainbows in vaccine land.

Siga Technologies (SIGA) released some disappointing trial data for their antiviral drug TPOXX. Turns out, it's not much better than a sugar pill for treating mpox.

Other companies are also jockeying for position.

Chimerix (CMRX) is developing brincidofovir, an antiviral that could potentially treat mpox. Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) is working on TNX-801, a live-virus vaccine candidate.

And let's not forget the diagnostic giants like Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) and Abbott Laboratories (ABT). After all, in the world of infectious diseases, being able to spot the bad guy quickly is half the battle.

Even the big guns of the COVID-19 vaccine world, Moderna (MRNA) and Pfizer (PFE), might decide to flex their mRNA muscles in the mpox arena. And with their track record, who's going to bet against them?

But here's the million-dollar question: Is this a golden opportunity for investors, or a potential minefield? The answer, as always in the stock market, is "it depends."

On one hand, companies directly involved in mpox vaccines, treatments, and diagnostics could see their stocks soar if the outbreak worsens.

On the other hand, the biotech sector is about as stable as a jenga tower in an earthquake. Today's miracle drug could be tomorrow's cautionary tale.

The smart money isn't putting all its eggs in the mpox basket. Diversification is still the name of the game. Remember, this outbreak could fizzle out as quickly as it started, leaving one-trick ponies high and dry.

Plus, let's always keep in mind the wild card in all this: government contracts.

In the world of infectious diseases, Uncle Sam often holds the purse strings. Keep your ear to the ground for any whispers of government funding or contracts. That kind of news can send stocks into the stratosphere faster than you can say "public health emergency."

So, what's the bottom line? The mpox outbreak is creating some intriguing opportunities in the biotech sector. But as with any investment, don't let the fear of missing out cloud your judgment.

And remember, in the stock market, as in epidemiology, it's all about managing risk.

In the meantime, maybe skip that bushmeat sandwich on your next African safari. Just a thought.