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2022 Annual Asset Class Review

I am once again writing this report from a first-class sleeping cabin on Amtrak’s legendary California Zephyr.

By day, I have two comfortable seats facing each other next to a panoramic window. At night, they fold into two bunk beds, a single and a double. There is a shower, but only Houdini could navigate it.

I am anything but Houdini, so I go downstairs to use the larger public hot showers. They are divine.

We are now pulling away from Chicago’s Union Station, leaving its hurried commuters, buskers, panhandlers, and majestic great halls behind. I love this building as a monument to American exceptionalism.

I am headed for Emeryville, California, just across the bay from San Francisco, some 2,121.6 miles away. That gives me only 56 hours to complete this report.

I tip my porter, Raymond, $100 in advance to make sure everything goes well during the long adventure and to keep me up-to-date with the onboard gossip.

The rolling and pitching of the car is causing my fingers to dance all over the keyboard. Microsoft’s Spellchecker can catch most of the mistakes, but not all of them.

As both broadband and cell phone coverage are unavailable along most of the route, I have to rely on frenzied Internet searches during stops at major stations along the way to Google obscure data points and download the latest charts.

You know those cool maps in the Verizon stores that show the vast coverage of their cell phone networks? They are complete BS.

Who knew that 95% of America is off the grid? That explains so much about our country today.

I have posted many of my better photos from the trip below, although there is only so much you can do from a moving train and an iPhone 12X pro.

Here is the bottom line which I have been warning you about for months. In 2022, you are going to have to work twice as hard to earn half as much money with double the volatility.

It’s not that I’ve turned bearish. The cause of the next bear market, a recession, is at best years off. However, we are entering the third year of the greatest bull market of all time. Expectations have to be toned down and brought back to earth. Markets will no longer be so strong that they forgive all mistakes, even mine.

2022 will be a trading year. Play it right, and you will make a fortune. Get lazy and complacent and you’ll be lucky to get out with your skin still attached.

If you think I spend too much time absorbing conspiracy theories or fake news from the Internet, let me give you a list of the challenges I see financial markets are facing in the coming year:

The Ten Key Variables for 2022

1) How soon will the Omicron wave peak?
2) Will the end of the Fed’s quantitative easing knock the wind out of the bond market?
3) Will the Russians invade the Ukraine or just bluster as usual?
4) How much of a market diversion will the US midterm elections present?
5) Will technology stocks continue to dominate, or will domestic recovery, and value stocks take over for good?
6) Can the commodities boom get a second wind?
7) How long will the bull market for the US dollar continue?
8) Will the real estate boom continue, or are we headed for a crash?
9) Has international trade been permanently impaired or will it recover?
10) Is oil seeing a dead cat bounce or is this a sustainable recovery?

The Thumbnail Portfolio

Equities – buy dips
Bonds – sell rallies
Foreign Currencies – stand aside
Commodities – buy dips
Precious Metals – stand aside
Energy – stand aside
Real Estate – buy dips
Bitcoin – Buy dips

1) The Economy

What happens after a surprise variant takes Covid cases to new all-time highs, the Fed tightens, and inflation soars?

Covid cases go to zero, the Fed flip flops to an ease and inflation moderates to its historical norm of 3% annually.

It all adds up to a 5% US GDP growth in 2022, less than last year’s ballistic 7% rate, but still one of the hottest growth rates in history.

If Joe Biden’s build-back batter plan passes, even in diminished form, that could add another 1%.

Once the supply chain chaos resolves inflation will cool. But after everyone takes delivery of their over orders conditions could cool.

This sets up a Goldilocks economy that could go on for years: high growth, low inflation, and full employment. Help wanted signs will slowly start to disappear. A 3% handle on Headline Unemployment is within easy reach.

A Rocky Mountain Moose Family

2) Equities (SPX), (QQQ), (IWM) (AAPL), (XLF), (BAC)

The weak of heart may want to just index and take a one-year cruise around the world instead in 2022 (here's the link for Cunard).

So here is the perfect 2022 for stocks. A 10% dive in the first half, followed by a rip-roaring 20% rally in the second half. This will be the year when a big rainy-day fund, i.e., a mountain of cash to spend at market bottoms, will be worth its weight in gold.

That will enable us to load up with LEAPS at the bottom and go 100% invested every month in H2.

That should net us a 50% profit or better in 2022, or about half of what we made last year.

Why am I so cautious?

Because for the first time in seven years we are going to have to trade with a headwind of rising interest rates. However, I don’t think rates will rise enough to kill off the bull market, just give traders a serious scare.

The barbell strategy will keep working. When rates rise, financials, the cheapest sector in the market, will prosper. When they fall, Big Tech will take over, but not as much as last year.

The main support for the market right now is very simple. The investors who fell victim to capitulation selling that took place at the end of November never got back in. Shrinking volume figures prove that. Their efforts to get back in during the new year could take the S&P 500 as high as $5,000 in January.

After that the trading becomes treacherous. Patience is a virtue, and you should only continue new longs when the Volatility Index (VIX) tops $30. If that means doing nothing for months so be it.

We had four 10% corrections in 2021. 2022 will be the year of the 10% correction.

Energy, Big Tech, and financials will be the top-performing sectors of 2022. Big Tech saw a 20% decline in multiples in 2022 and will deliver another 30% rise in earnings in 2022, so they should remain at the core of any portfolio.

It will be a stock pickers market. But so was 2021, with 51% of S&P 500 performance coming from just two stocks, Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL).

However, they are already so over-owned that they are prone to dead periods as long as eight months, as we saw last year. That makes a multipronged strategy essential.

Frozen Headwaters of the Colorado River

3) Bonds (TLT), (TBT), (JNK), (PHB), (HYG), (MUB), (LQD)

Amtrak needs to fill every seat in the dining car to get everyone fed on time, so you never know who you will share a table with for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

There was the Vietnam Vet Phantom Jet Pilot who now refused to fly because he was treated so badly at airports. A young couple desperately eloping from Omaha could only afford seats as far as Salt Lake City. After they sat up all night, I paid for their breakfast.

A retired British couple was circumnavigating the entire US in a month on a “See America Pass.” Mennonites are returning home by train because their religion forbade automobiles or airplanes.

The national debt ballooned to an eye-popping $30 trillion in 2021, a gain of an incredible $3 trillion and a post-World War II record. Yet, as long as global central banks are still flooding the money supply with trillions of dollars in liquidity, bonds will not fall in value too dramatically. I’m expecting a slow grind down in prices and up in yields.

The great bond short of 2021 never happened. Even though bonds delivered their worst returns in 19 years, they still remained nearly unchanged. That wasn’t good enough for the many hedge funds, which had to cover massive money-losing shorts into yearend.

Instead, the Great Bond Crash will become a 2022 business. This time, bonds face the gale force headwinds of three promised interest rates hikes. The year-end government bond auctions were a complete disaster.

Fed borrowing continues to balloon out of control. It’s just a matter of time before the last billion dollars in government borrowing breaks the camel’s back.

That makes a bond short a core position in any balanced portfolio. Don’t get lazy. Make sure you only sell a rally lest we get trapped in a range, as we did for most of 2021.

A Visit to the 19^th Century

4) Foreign Currencies (FXE), (EUO), (FXC), (FXA), (YCS), (FXY), (CYB)

For the first time in ages, I did no foreign exchange trades last year. That is a good thing because I was wrong about the direction of the dollar for the entire year.

Sometimes, passing on bad trades is more important than finding good ones.

I focused on exploding US debt and trade deficits undermining the greenback and igniting inflation. The market focused on delta and omicron variants heralding new recessions. The market won.

The market won’t stay wrong forever. Just as bond crash is temporarily in a holding pattern, so is a dollar collapse. When it does occur, it will happen in a hurry.

5) Commodities (FCX), (VALE), (DBA)

The global synchronized economic recovery now in play can mean only one thing, and that is sustainably higher commodity prices.

The twin Covid variants put commodities on hold in 2021 because of recession fears. So did the Chinese real estate slowdown, the world’s largest consumer of hard commodities.

The heady days of the 2011 commodity bubble top are now in play. Investors are already front running that move, loading the boat with Freeport McMoRan (FCX), US Steel (X), and BHP Group (BHP).

Now that this sector is convinced of an eventual weak US dollar and higher inflation, it is once more the apple of traders’ eyes.

China will still demand prodigious amounts of imported commodities once again, but not as much as in the past. Much of the country has seen its infrastructure build out, and it is turning from a heavy industrial to a service-based economy, like the US. Investors are keeping a sharp eye on India as the next major commodity consumer.

And here’s another big new driver. Each electric vehicle requires 200 pounds of copper and production is expected to rise from 1 million units a year to 25 million by 2030. Annual copper production will have to increase 11-fold in a decade to accommodate this increase, no easy task, or prices will have to ride.

The great thing about commodities is that it takes a decade to bring new supply online, unlike stocks and bonds, which can merely be created by an entry in an excel spreadsheet. As a result, they always run far higher than you can imagine.

Accumulate commodities on dips.

Snow Angel on the Continental Divide

6) Energy (DIG), (RIG), (USO), (DUG), (UNG), (USO), (XLE), (AMLP)

Energy may be the top-performing sector of 2022. But remember, you will be trading an asset class that is eventually on its way to zero.

However, you could have several doublings on the way to zero. This is one of those times.

The real tell here is that energy companies are drinking their own Kool-Aid. Instead of reinvesting profits back into their new exploration and development, as they have for the last century, they are paying out more in dividends.

There is the additional challenge in that the bulk of US investors, especially environmentally friendly ESG funds, are now banned from investing in legacy carbon-based stocks. That means permanently cheap valuations and shares prices for the energy industry.

Energy stocks are also massively under-owned, making them prone to rip-you-face-off short squeezes. Energy now counts for only 3% of the S&P 500. Twenty years ago it boasted a 15% weighting.

The gradual shut down of the industry makes the supply/demand situation more volatile. Therefore, we could top $100 a barrel for oil in 2022, dragging the stocks up kicking and screaming all the way.

Unless you are a seasoned, peripatetic, sleep-deprived trader, there are better fish to fry.

7) Precious Metals (GLD), (DGP), (SLV), (PPTL), (PALL)

The train has added extra engines at Denver, so now we may begin the long laboring climb up the Eastern slope of the Rocky Mountains.

On a steep curve, we pass along an antiquated freight train of hopper cars filled with large boulders.

The porter tells me this train is welded to the tracks to create a windbreak. Once, a gust howled out of the pass so swiftly, that it blew a passenger train over on its side.

In the snow-filled canyons, we saw a family of three moose, a huge herd of elk, and another group of wild mustangs. The engineer informs us that a rare bald eagle is flying along the left side of the train. It’s a good omen for the coming year.

We also see countless abandoned 19^th century gold mines and the broken-down wooden trestles leading to them, relics of previous precious metals booms. So, it is timely here to speak about the future of precious metals.

Fortunately, when a trade isn’t working, I avoid it. That certainly was the case with gold last year.

2021 was a terrible year for precious metals. With inflation soaring, stocks volatile, and interest rates going nowhere, gold had every reason to rise. Instead, it fell for almost all of the entire year.

Bitcoin stole gold’s thunder, sucking in all of the speculative interest in the financial system. Jewelry and industrial demand was just not enough to keep gold afloat.

This will not be a permanent thing. Chart formations are starting to look encouraging, and they certainly win the price for a big laggard rotation. So, buy gold on dips if you have a stick of courage on you.

Would You Believe This is a Blue State?

8) Real Estate (ITB), (LEN)

The majestic snow-covered Rocky Mountains are behind me. There is now a paucity of scenery, with the endless ocean of sagebrush and salt flats of Northern Nevada outside my window, so there is nothing else to do but write.

My apologies in advance to readers in Wells, Elko, Battle Mountain, and Winnemucca, Nevada.

It is a route long traversed by roving banks of Indians, itinerant fur traders, the Pony Express, my own immigrant forebearers in wagon trains, the transcontinental railroad, the Lincoln Highway, and finally US Interstate 80, which was built for the 1960 Winter Olympics at Squaw Valley.

Passing by shantytowns and the forlorn communities of the high desert, I am prompted to comment on the state of the US real estate market.

There is no doubt a long-term bull market in real estate will continue for another decade, although from here prices will appreciate at a 5%-10% slower rate.

There is a generational structural shortage of supply with housing which won’t come back into balance until the 2030s.

There are only three numbers you need to know in the housing market for the next 20 years: there are 80 million baby boomers, 65 million Generation Xer’s who follow them, and 86 million in the generation after that, the Millennials.

The boomers have been unloading dwellings to the Gen Xers since prices peaked in 2007. But there are not enough of the latter, and three decades of falling real incomes mean that they only earn a fraction of what their parents made. That’s what caused the financial crisis.

If they have prospered, banks won’t lend to them. Brokers used to say that their market was all about “location, location, location.” Now it is “financing, financing, financing.” Imminent deregulation is about to deep-six that problem.

There is a happy ending to this story.

Millennials now aged 26-44 are now the dominant buyers in the market. They are transitioning from 30% to 70% of all new buyers of homes.

The Great Millennial Migration to the suburbs and Middle America has just begun. Thanks to Zoom, many are never returning to the cities. So has the migration from the coast to the American heartland.

That’s why Boise, Idaho was the top-performing real estate market in 2021, followed by Phoenix, Arizona. Personally, I like Reno, Nevada, where Apple, Google, Amazon, and Tesla are building factories as fast as they can.

As a result, the price of single-family homes should rocket during the 2020s, as they did during the 1970s and the 1990s when similar demographic forces were at play.

This will happen in the context of a coming labor shortfall, soaring wages, and rising standards of living.

Rising rents are accelerating this trend. Renters now pay 35% of their gross income, compared to only 18% for owners, and less, when multiple deductions and tax subsidies are taken into account. Rents are now rising faster than home prices.

Remember, too, that the US will not have built any new houses in large numbers in 13 years. The 50% of small home builders that went under during the crash aren’t building new homes today.

We are still operating at only a half of the peak rate. Thanks to the Great Recession, the construction of five million new homes has gone missing in action.

That makes a home purchase now particularly attractive for the long term, to live in, and not to speculate with.

You will boast to your grandchildren how little you paid for your house, as my grandparents once did to me ($3,000 for a four-bedroom brownstone in Brooklyn in 1922), or I do to my kids ($180,000 for a two-bedroom Upper East Side Manhattan high rise with a great view of the Empire State Building in 1983).

That means the major homebuilders like Lennar (LEN), Pulte Homes (PHM), and KB Homes (KBH) are a buy on the dip.

Quite honestly, of all the asset classes mentioned in this report, purchasing your abode is probably the single best investment you can make now. It’s also a great inflation play.

If you borrow at a 3.0% 30-year fixed rate, and the long-term inflation rate is 3%, then, over time, you will get your house for free.

How hard is that to figure out? That math degree from UCLA is certainly earning its keep.

Crossing the Bridge to Home Sweet Home

9) Bitcoin

It’s not often that new asset classes are made out of whole cloth. That is what happened with Bitcoin, which, in 2021, became a core holding of many big institutional investors.

But get used to the volatility. After doubling in three months, Bitcoin gave up all its gains by year-end. You have to either trade Bitcoin like a demon or keep your positions so small you can sleep at night.

By the way, right now is a good place to establish a new position in Bitcoin.

10) Postscript

We have pulled into the station at Truckee in the midst of a howling blizzard.

My loyal staff has made the ten-mile trek from my beachfront estate at Incline Village to welcome me to California with a couple of hot breakfast burritos and a chilled bottle of Dom Perignon Champagne, which has been resting in a nearby snowbank. I am thankfully spared from taking my last meal with Amtrak.

After that, it was over legendary Donner Pass, and then all downhill from the Sierras, across the Central Valley, and into the Sacramento River Delta.

Well, that’s all for now. We’ve just passed what was left of the Pacific mothball fleet moored near the Benicia Bridge (2,000 ships down to six in 50 years). The pressure increase caused by a 7,200-foot descent from Donner Pass has crushed my plastic water bottle. Nice science experiment!

The Golden Gate Bridge and the soaring spire of Salesforce Tower are just around the next bend across San Francisco Bay.

A storm has blown through, leaving the air crystal clear and the bay as flat as glass. It is time for me to unplug my Macbook Pro and iPhone 13 Pro, pick up my various adapters, and pack up.

We arrive in Emeryville 45 minutes early. With any luck, I can squeeze in a ten-mile night hike up Grizzly Peak and still get home in time to watch the ball drop in New York’s Times Square on TV.

I reach the ridge just in time to catch a spectacular pastel sunset over the Pacific Ocean. The omens are there. It is going to be another good year.

I’ll shoot you a Trade Alert whenever I see a window open at a sweet spot on any of the dozens of trades described above.

Good luck and good trading in 2022!

John Thomas
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Omens Are Good for 2022!

November 19, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 19, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(NOVEMBER 17 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(RIVN), (WMT), (BAC), (MS), (GS), (GLD), (SLV), (CRSP), (NVDA),
(BAC), (CAT), (DE), (PTON), (FXI), (TSLA), (CPER), (Z)

November 17 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the November 17 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from the safety of Silicon Valley.

Q: Even though your trading indicator is over 80, do you think that investors should be 100% long stocks using the barbell names?

A: Yes, in a hyper-liquidity type market like we have now, we can spend months in sell territory before the indexes finally rollover. That happened last year and it’s happening now. So, we can chop in this sort of 50-85 range probably well into next year before we get any sell signals. Selling apparently is something you just do anymore; if things go down, you just buy more. It’s basically the Bitcoin strategy these days.

Q: What do you think about Rivian's (RIVN) future?

A: Well, with Amazon behind them, it was guaranteed to be a success. However, we mere mortals won't be able to buy any cars until 2024, and they have yet to prove themselves on mass production. Moreover, the stock is ridiculously expensive—even more than Tesla was in its most expensive days. And it’s not offering any great value, just momentum so I don’t want to chase it right here. I knew it was going to blow up to the upside when the IPO hit because the EV sector is just so hot and EVs are taking over the global economy. I will watch from a distance unless we get a sudden 40% drawdown which used to happen with Tesla all the time in the early days.

Q: Are you worried about another COVID wave?

A: No, because any new virus that appears on the scene is now attacking a population that is 80-90% immune. Most people got immunity through shots, and the last 10% got immunity by getting the disease. So, it’s a much more difficult population for a new virus to infect, which means no more stock market problems resulting from the pandemic.

Q: Is investing in retail or Walmart (WMT) the best way to protect myself from inflation?

A: It’s actually quite a good way because Walmart has unlimited ability to raise prices, which goes straight through to the share price and increases profit margins. Their core blue-collar customers are now getting the biggest wage hikes in their lives, so disposable income is rocketing. And really, overall, the best way to protect yourself from inflation is to own your own home, which 62% of you do, and to own stocks, which 100% of the people in this webinar do. So, you are inflation-protected up the wazoo coming to Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Not to mention we buy inflation plays like banks here.

Q: Why are financials great, like Bank of America (BAC)?

A: Because the more their assets increase in value, the greater the management fees they get to collect. So, it’s a perfect double hockey stick increase in profits.

*Interest rates are rising
*Rising interest rates increase bank profit margins
*A recovering economy means default rates are collapsing
*Thanks to Dodd-Frank, banks are overcapitalized
*Banks shares are cheap relative to other stocks
*The bank sector has underperformed for a decade
*With rates rising value stocks like banks make the perfect rotation play out of technology stocks.
*Cryptocurrencies will create opportunities for the best-run banks.

Q: Do you think the market is in a state of irrational exuberance?

A: Yes. Warning: irrational exuberance could last for 5 years. That’s what happened when Alan Greenspan, the Fed governor in 1996, coined that phrase and tech stocks went straight up all the way up until 2000. We made fortunes off of it because what happens with irrational exuberance is that it becomes more irrational, and we’re seeing that today with a lot of these overdone stock prices.

Q: Should I hold cash or bonds if you had to choose one?

A: Cash. Bonds have a terrible risk/reward right now. You’re getting like a 1% coupon in the face of inflation that's at 6.2%. It’s like the worst mismatch in history. In fact, we made $8 points on our bond shorts just in the last week. So just keep selling those rallies, never own any bonds at all—I don’t care what your financial advisor tells you, these are worthless pieces of paper that are about to become certificates of confiscation like they did back in the 80s when we had high inflation.

Q: What’s your yearend target for Nvidia (NVDA)?

A: Up. It’s one of the best companies in the world. It’s the next trillion dollar company, but as for the exact day and time of when it hits these upside targets, I have no idea. We’ve been recommending Nvidia since it was $50, and it’s now approaching $400. So that’s another mad hedge 20 bagger setting up.

Q: What about CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)?

A: The call spread is looking like a complete write-off; we missed the chance to sell it at $170, it’s now at $88. So, I’m just going to write that one-off. Next time a biotech of mine has a giant one-day spike, I am selling. What you might do though with Crisper is convert your call spread to straight outright calls; that increases your delta on the position from 10% to 40% so that way you only need to get a $20 move up in the stock price and you’ll get a break-even point on your long position. So, convert the spreads to longs—that’s a good way of getting out of failed spreads. You do not need a downside hedge anymore, and you’ll find those deep out of the money calls for pennies on the dollar. That is the smart thing to do, however, you have to put money into the position if you’re going to do that.

Q: Would you buy a LEAP in Tesla (TSLA) at this time?

A: No, it’s starting a multi-month topping out process, then it goes to sleep for 5 months. After it’s been asleep for 5 months then I go back and look at LEAPS. Remember, we had a 45% drawdown last year. I bet we get that again next year.

Q: Will inflation subside?

A: Probably in a year or so. A lot depends on how quickly we can break up the log jam at the ports, and how this infrastructure spending plays out. But if we do end the pandemic, a lot of people who were afraid of working because of the virus (that’s 5 or 10 million people) will come back and that will end at least wage inflation.

Q: When is the next Mad Hedge Fund Trader Summit?

A: December 7, 8, and 9; and we have 27 speakers lined up for you. We’ll start emailing probably next week about that.

Q: Are gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) getting close to a buy?

A: Maybe, unless Bitcoin comes and steals their thunder again. It has been the worst-performing asset this year. The only gold I have now is in my teeth.

Q: Morgan Stanley (MS) is tanking today, should I dump the call spread?

A: I’m going to see if we hold here and can close above our maximum strike price of $98 on Friday. But all of the financials are weak today, it’s nothing specific to Morgan Stanley. Let’s see if we get another bounce back to expiration.

Q: Where can I view all the current positions?

A: We have all of our positions in the trade alert service in your account file, and you should find a spreadsheet with all the current positions marked to market every day.

Q: What is the barbell strategy?

A: Half your money is in big tech and the other half is in financials and other domestic recovery plays. That way you always have something that’s going up.

Q: Is Elon Musk selling everything to avoid taxes from Nancy Pelosi?

A: Actually, he’s selling everything to avoid taxes from California governor Gavin Newsom—it’s the California taxes that he has to pay the bill on, and that’s why he has moved to Texas. As far as I know, you have to pay taxes no matter who is president.

Q: Will the price of oil hit $100?

A: I doubt it. How high can it go before it returns to zero?

Q: Is it time to buy a Caterpillar (CAT) LEAP?

A: We’re getting very close because guess what? We just got another $1.2 billion to spend on infrastructure. Not a single job happens here without a Caterpillar tractor or a tractor from Komatsu for John Deere (DE).

Q: Will small caps do well in 2022?

A: Yes, this is the point in the economic cycle where small caps start to outperform big caps. So, I'd be buying the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) on dips. That's because smaller, more leveraged companies do better in healthy economies than large ones.

Q: Is it too late to buy coal?

A: Yes, it’s up 10 times. The next big move for coal is going to be down.

Q: Peloton (PTON) is down 300%; should I buy here?

A: Turns out it’s just a clothes rack, after all, it isn't a software company. I didn’t like the Peloton story from the start—of course, I go outside and hike on real mountains rather than on machines, so I’m biased—but it has “busted story” written all over it, so don’t touch Peloton.

Q: Will spiking gasoline prices cause US local governments to finally invest in Subways and Trams like European cities, or is this something that will never happen?

A: This will never happen, except in green states like New York and California. A lot of the big transit systems were built when labor was 10 cents a day by poor Irish and Italian immigrants—those could never be built again, these massive 100-mile subway systems through solid rock. So if you want to ride decent public transportation, go to Europe. Unfortunately, that’s the path the United States never took, and to change that now would be incredibly expensive and time-consuming. They’re talking about building a second BART tunnel under the bay bridge; that’s a $20 billion, 20-year job, these are huge projects. And for the last five years, we’ve had no infrastructure spending at all, just lots of talk.

Q: Would Tesla (TSLA) remains stable if something happened to Elon Musk?

A: Probably not; that would be a nice opportunity for another 45% correction. But if that happened, it would also be a great opportunity for another Tesla LEAPS. My long-term target for the stock is $10,000. Elon actually spends almost no time with Tesla now, it’s basically on autopilot. All his time is going into SpaceX now, which he has a lot more fun with, and which is actually still a private company, so he isn’t restricted with comments about space like he is with comments about Tesla. When you're the richest man in the world you pretty much get to do anything you want as long as you're not subject to regulation by the SEC.

Q: How realistic is it that holiday gatherings will trigger a huge wave of COVID in the United States forcing another lockdown and the Fed to delay a rise in interest rates?

A: I would say there’s a 0% chance of that happening. As I explained earlier, with 90% immunity in much of the country, viruses have a much harder time attacking the population with a new variant. The pandemic is in the process of leaving the stock market, and all I can say is good riddance.

Q: What about the Biden meeting with President Xi and Chinese stocks (FXI)?

A: It’s actually a very positive development; this could be the beginning of the end of the cold war with China and China’s war on capitalism. If that’s true, Chinese stocks are the bargain of the century. However, we’ve had several false green lights already this year, and with stuff like Microsoft (MSFT) rocketing the way it is, I’d rather go for the low-risk high-return trades over the high-risk, high return trades.

Q: What’s your opinion of Zillow (Z)?

A: I actually kind of like it long term, despite their recent disaster and exit from the home-flipping business.

Q: Do you like copper (CPER) for the long term?

A: Yes, because every electric car needs 200 lbs. of copper, and if you’re going from a million units a year to 25 million units a year, that’s a heck of a lot of copper—like three times the total world production right now.

To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.

Good Luck and Stay Healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

An Old Fashioned Peloton (a Mountain)

October 8, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 8, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(OCTOBER 6 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(FCX), (TSLA), (BLK), (MS), (JPM), ($NATGAS), (UNG), (BIDU), (MRNA), (COIN), (ROM), ($BTCUSD), (ETHE), (FB), (DAL), (ALK), (LUV) (MSTR), (BLOK), (V), (NVDA), (SLV), (TLT), (TBT)

October 6 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the October 6 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from the safety of Silicon Valley.

Q: When will Freeport McMoRan (FCX) go up?

A: When the China real estate crisis ends, and they start buying copper again to build new apartment buildings.

Q: Do rising interest rates imply trouble for tech?

A: Yes, they do, but only for the short term. Long term, these things all double on a three-year view; and the next rise up in tech stocks will start when interest rates peak out, probably with 10-year yields at 1.76% or 2.00%. The great irony here is that all the big techs profit from higher rates because they have such enormous cash flows and balances. But that is just how markets work.

Q: I know you’ve been promoting Tesla (TSLA) for a very long time. What do you think about it here?

A: We’ve just gone from $550 to over $800. It actually has been one of the best performing stocks in the market for the past four months. Short term, you want to take profits; long term you want to hold it because it could go up 10 times from the current level. They just broke all their sales records and are the fastest growing car company in the US or Europe.

Q: If Blackrock (BLK) is reliant on interest rates, will the rise in interest rates hurt them?

A: No, it’s the opposite. Rising interest rates are positive for Blackrock because it improves the return on their investments, which they get a piece of; so rising interest rates mean more money and more fees. That's why I own it— it is a rising interest rate play, not a falling interest rate play.

Q: What do you think about Baidu (BIDU)?

A: Stay away from all China trades right now, it’s uninvestable. Not only do I not know what the Chinese are going to do next—they seem to be attacking a new industry every week—but the Chinese don’t even seem to know. This is all new to them; they had been embracing the capitalist model for the last 40 years and they now seem to be backtracking. There are better fish to fry, like Morgan Stanley (MS) and JP Morgan (JPM).

Q: Don’t you have a bear put spread on Baidu (BIDU)?

A: We did have a bear put spread on Baidu, but that's only a very short term, front month trade. It does look like it’s going to make money; but keep in mind those are high-risk trades.

Q: Could Natural Gas (UNG) trigger an economic crisis?

A: Not really. In the US, natgas is only a portion of our total energy needs, about 34%, and that’s mostly in the Midwest and California. The US has something like a 200-year supply with fracking. Plus, we’re on a price spike here—we’ve gone from $2 to $20/btu in Europe, entirely manipulated by Russia trying to get more money on their exports and more political control over Europe. So, it’s a short-term deal, and you can bet a lot of pros are out there shorting natgas like crazy right here. The real issue here is that no one wants to invest in carbon-based energy anymore and that is creating bottlenecks in the energy supply chain.

Q: How long will it take to provide EV infrastructure to mass gas station availability?

A: The EV infrastructure has in fact been in progress for 20 years, if you count the first generation of EV in the late 90s, which bombed. Tesla has been building power stations in the US for 10 years. They have 10,000 chargers now in 1,800 stations and their goal is 20,000 charging stations. In fact, most people already have the infrastructure for EV charging—you just charge them at home overnight, like I do. The only time I ever need a charge is when I go to Lake Tahoe. For gasoline engines, on the other hand, it took 20 years to build infrastructure from 1900 to 1920 to replace horses. Believe it or not, gasoline cars were the great environmental advance of the day, because it meant you could get rid of all the horses. New York City used to have 150,000 horses, and the city was constantly struggling through streets of two-foot-deep manure piles. So that was the big improvement. It only took 100 years to take the next step.

Q: The latest commodity with supply constraints I hear about is cotton. Is this all just a temporary thing and can we expect supply capacity to be back to normal next year? Is this just the failing of a just-in-time model that simply doesn’t work in the age of deglobalization?

A: We are losing possibly one third of our current economic growth due to part shortages, labor shortages, supply chain problems—those all go away next year, and that one third of economic growth just gets postponed into 2022 which means that the economic recovery is extended over a longer period of time, and so is the bull market in stocks, how about that! That’s why I’m loading the boat right here. It’s the first time I've been 100% invested since May.

Q: What do you think about the airlines here?

A: High risk, but high return play for the next year. Delta (DAL) is a play on business travel recovery. Alaska Airlines (ALK) and Southwest(LUV) are a play on a vacation travel return flying return, which has already started—we’re back to pre-pandemic TSA clearances at airports.

Q: Is Facebook (FB) a buy now?

A: No, I want to wait for the dust to settle before I go back in. I think it does recover and go to new highs eventually but will go to lower lows first. Regulation is certainly coming but we don’t know what.

Q: When will the chip shortage end?

A: Two years. My prediction is much longer than anybody else's because people are designing chips into new products like crazy. All predictions for the chip shortage to end in only a year don’t take that into account.

Q: When do we go into the (ROM) ProShares Ultra Technology long play?

A: When interest rates peak out sometime early next year. It’s probably a great entry point for tech; until then they go nowhere.

Q: Does the appetite for financials extend to Canada and their banks with higher dividends?

A: Yes, US and Canadian interest rates tend to move fairly closely so that rising rates here should be just as good for banks in Canada, and you might even be able to get them cheaper.

Q: Do you suggest we buy Altcoin?

A: No, not unless you're a Bitcoin professional like a miner, who can differentiate between all the different Altcoins. You can buy up to 100 different Altcoins on the main exchanges like Coinbase (COIN). In the crypto business, there is safety and size; that means Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHE), which between them account for about three quarters of all the crypto ever issued. A Lot of the smaller ones have a risk of going to zero overnight, and that has already happened many times. So go with the size—they’re less volatile but they’ll still go up in a rising market. And you should subscribe to our bitcoin letter just to get the details on how that market works.

Q: Target for Bitcoin by Christmas?

A: My conservative target is $66,000, but if we really go nuts, we could go as high as $100,000. That’s the “laser eyes” target for a lot of the early investors.

Q: Suggestions for a Crypto ETF?

A: It’s not out yet but will be shortly. I think that Crypto will run like crazy in anticipation of the Bitcoin ETF that we don’t have yet.

Q: Should I buy Moderna (MRNA) on this dip at 320 down from 400, or is this a COVID revenue flash in the pan that won’t come back?

A: It’ll come back because they’re taking their COVID technology and applying it to all other human diseases including cancer, which is why we got in this thing two years ago. But we may have to find a lower low first. So I would wait on all the drug/biotech plays which right now are getting hammered with the demise of the delta virus.

Q: What’s your favorite ETF right now?

A: Probably the (TBT) Double Short Treasury ETF. I’m looking for it to go up another 30% from here to 24 or 25 by sometime next year.

Q: EVs have been hot this year; Lordstown Motors is down to only $5 from $27 and just got downgraded by an analyst to $2. Should I buy, or is this a dangerous strategy?

A: I would say highly dangerous. This company has been signaling that it’s on its way to bankruptcy essentially all year, so don’t confuse “gone down a lot” with being “cheap” because that’s how you buy stuff on the way to zero.

Q: What about Anthony Scaramucci’s ETF?

A: We will have Anthony Scaramucci as a guest in our December summit. And the ETF is a basket of stocks as diverse as MicroStrategy (MSTR), Blok (BLOK), Visa (V), and Nvidia (NVDA), so you will only get a fraction of the Bitcoin volatility. That means if Bitcoin goes up 100% you might get a 40% or 50% move in the actual ETF.

Q: Do you have a Bitcoin book coming out soon?

A: I do, it should be out by the end of this month. That’s The Mad Hedge Guide to Trading Bitcoin, and it will have all the research I’ve accumulated on trading Bitcoin in the past year.

Q: Why have you only issued one trade alert in Bitcoin?

A: You don’t get a lot of entry points for Bitcoin. You buy the periodic bottoms and then you run them. Dollar cost averaging is very useful here because there are no traditional valuation measures to use, like price earnings multiples or price to book. When it comes time to sell, we'll let you know, but there aren’t a lot of Bitcoin plays outside the Bitcoin exchanges.

Q: Thoughts on silver (SLV)?

A: It’s horribly out of favor now and will continue to be so as long as Bitcoin gets the spotlight. Also, there’s a China problem with the precious metals.

Q: There are 8 or 10 good public Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Canada.

A: That’s true, if you’re allowed to trade in Canada.

Q: Can the US ban Bitcoin like China did?

A: No, if they did, it would just move offshore to the Cayman Islands or some other place outside the world of regulation.

To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log on to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.

Good Luck and Stay Healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Sightseeing in Laos in 1975

September 24, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 24, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TESTIMONIAL)
(SEPTEMBER 22 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (TBT), (V), (AXP), (MA), (FSLR), (SPWR), (USO), (UNG), (PFE), (JNJ), (MRNA), (MS), (JPM), (FCX), (X), (FDX), (GLD), (UPS), (SLV), (AAPL), (VIX), (VXX), (UAL), (DAL), (ALK), (BRK/B), (BABA), (BITCOIN), (ETHEREUM), (YELL)

September 22 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the September 22 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from the safety of Silicon Valley.

Q: When’s the United States US Treasury bond fund (TLT) going to go down?

A: When J. Powell tapers, which will be either today or in 6 weeks. That's the time frame we’re looking at now, and people are positioning now for the taper—that's why financials are taking off like a rocket. Buy those financials and don't expect too much from your tech stocks for the next few months.

Q: What do you think of adding corporate or municipal bonds to my portfolio?

A: Don’t do that on pain of death please; you will lose money. Corporate bonds will get slaughtered the second interest rates turn because they have the most exposure from a credit point of view to any downgrades resulting from rising interest rates. Better to keep your money in cash than buy bonds here. It was a great idea 10 years ago, but a terrible idea today. Just buy cash or buy extremely deep-in-the-money LEAPS which will get you a 10-20% per year return.

Q: What are the chances that the government defaults?

A: Zero, because corporate profits this year will increase from $2 trillion to $10 trillion, spinning off massive tax revenues for the government. The deficit will come down substantially in the future as a result. Keep expecting upwards surprises in profits and taxable revenues. That may be why the (TLT) is staying so high.

Q: I need a customized LEAPS on a stock.

A: We do those for our concierge customers. If you’re interested, then email Filomena at customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com.

Q: What brand of shot did you get?

A: Pfizer (PFE).

Q: The Government is showing no sign of balancing a budget and the hole will only get deeper; what are your thoughts?

A: I agree, and that’s why I'm short the (TLT). All we need is a taper to really get some juice under that trade; we really don’t need that much. Ten-year US Treasury yields are now around 1.30% and we only need the yield to get up to about 1.70% for us to make a maximum profit on our positions. One taper hint and it could get us up to those levels.

Q: Why is Visa (V) dropping so much?

A: Fear of being replaced by Bitcoin. This is the big thing dragging all three credit card companies down, including American Express (AXP) and master Card (MA). That's why I have not added a Visa position among my financials in this go around.

Q: How can the Fed unwind their balance sheet and normalize interest rates to a historical average of 4-5%?

A: Quite easily: quit buying bonds. They’re still buying $120 billion/month worth. Technology has accelerated with the pandemic and we all know this is highly deflationary. I expect the next peak in interest rates to be only 3% or 3.5%, not the 6% we saw in the last peak in interest rates in the 2000s. So yeah, bonds are going to go down but not back to 2000’s level.

Q: Thoughts on the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shot?

A: No thank you. If you get to choose, Moderna (MRNA) is now producing the best immunity data on a year-to-date basis if you’re starting out from scratch. Some people are mixing, they start out with Pfizer and then get Moderna. They get a worse reaction because the Moderna initial reaction shot sees the Pfizer vaccine as a new virus, so you may get a small flu as a result of that.

Q: What is the put spread you’re recommending on the TLT?

A: The May 2022 $150-$155 vertical put spread. That is the sweet spot now on the short side on (TLT) LEAPS. You should earn a 115% profit in eight months on this trade if interest rates remain unchanged or fall.

Q: Do you expect the ProShares Ultra Short 20 year+ Treasury ETF (TBT) to make it to $20 this year?

A: Yes, I do; $16 to $20 isn’t that much of a move. Remember, the (TBT) is a two times short ETF.

Q: Are you recommending bank stocks?

A: Yes, Morgan Stanley (MS) and JP Morgan (JPM) are two of the best. They will lead the yearend rally starting from here.

Q: When do you expect the semiconductor shortage to end?

A: End of next year, or maybe even 2023, because what all the analysts keep underestimating is that the end of shortages is based on companies getting the chips they want today. The actual issue is that companies are designing billions of chips into their products at an exponential rate, and what they’ll need in a year from now is far higher than most people realize. The semiconductor shortage is much more structural than people realize—that's my theory. They don’t throw up a $2 billion fab overnight. So, this will keep going on for a while and be a drag on economic growth.

Q: Are you sure we won’t see $100 oil (USO)?

A: With oil, you're never sure about anything, although I highly doubt it. We’d have to have monster economic growth in China to get oil up to $100 a barrel. Right now, China is going the other way.

Q: What’s your view on the debt ceiling? Will it give us a good buying opportunity?

A: Probably not, our good buying opportunity was yesterday or Monday. These debt crises are always one minute before midnight solutions. They always get solved. Never underestimate the ability of Congressmen to spend money in their own district. So, I don’t think that would create a stock market crash like it might have done 20 years ago.

Q: What about Freeport McMoRan (FCX)?

A: It’s taking a dip here because of a possible real estate crash in China, and of course China is the world’s largest buyer of copper for apartment construction. I’m kind of taking a break here on Freeport McMoRan and US Steel (X) until we learn a little more about the China situation. They did move to start a bailout today. Let’s see if that continues.

Q: When will the airlines come back?

A: They’ll come back when business travel returns, which I think could be next year. If you eliminate the virus completely, these things double easily. That's the bet you’re making. Let’s see if the covid boosters work, the childhood shots work, and then you can take another look at Delta (DAL) and Alaska (ALK).

Q: If Bitcoin gains mass adoption, does that put banks out of business just like electric vehicles are making oil obsolete?

A: No, not if the banks go into the Bitcoin business. And the banks actually have the cash, resources, and infrastructure to take over the Bitcoin area once the technology matures. And the corollary to that is that the oil industry is that the majors have the infrastructure, the manpower, and the capital to take over the alternative energy business if they choose to do so and oil goes to zero, which it eventually will. The proof of that is the largest investor in all the Silicon Valley energy startups are Saudi Arabian venture capital funds. They’re huge investors in solar here. If Saudi Arabia has a lot of oil, they have even more solar. Believe me, I’ve been there.

Q: Will a lack of inventory and rising interest rates end the bidding wars on houses soon?

A: Only if you consider 10 years soon. That is how long it will take for the sizes of different generations to come into balance, the Millennials (85 million) versus the Gen Xers (45 million). That’s when the housing bubble will end, but that won’t be for another decade. We still have a structural shortage of new home construction (about 5 million units a year) because all the home builders who went bust in the financial crisis in 2008/2009 and never came back—all of that new construction is still missing. And the surviving ones haven’t increased production to meet that shortfall because they want to manage their risk. Eventually, they will and that probably will be the next top, but that’s really 2030 type business.

Q: What about Federal Express (FDX)?

A: Labor shortages. It's hitting (UPS), (FDX), the Post Office, and DHL too—all the couriers.

Q: When do you think gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) rise back to 2,000?

A: I am avoiding gold and silver as long as Bitcoin has buyers. The action in Bitcoin is 10x the movement you get in gold and that’s attracted all the speculative capital in the market, draining all interest from gold, which hit a new six-month low just last week.

Q: What’s your buy target for Apple (AAPL)?

A: I would say if you can get it at $135, that would be a gift. We did get close to $140 at the lows this week; that’s when you start nibbling, and then you double up again at $135. I doubt Apple is going down more than 10% in this cycle. There are too many people still trying to get into it. And they’re still the largest buyer of stock in the world. They only buy one stock, their own.

Q: I never got any IPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) alerts.

A: That's because we never sent any out. (VIX) has become an incredibly difficult game to play, accumulating positions for months and then trying to get out on a one-day spike that lasts a few minutes. The insiders have too much of a house advantage here, who only play from the short side. There are too many better fish to fry.

Q: What about the Apple electric vehicle?

A: I’ll believe it when I see it; I've been hearing about this for something like seven years. My guess is that Apple is more likely to supply consoles and parts to other EV makers and help them get into the game with software and so on. I think that will be Apple's role in all of this.

Q: How much has China Evergrande Group stock fallen?

A: It’s a really illiquid stock in China so we never got involved in it. I think it’s down more than half. Even the professional short-sellers like Jim Chanos and Kyle Bass, have been targeting that stock for 10 years are now screaming they’re vindicated. Of course, they lost fortunes in the meantime. So, I'll pass on that one.

Q: What about stop losses on LEAPS trades?

A: I don’t really run LEAPS portfolios or issue stop losses. The idea is to run these into expiration, and we’ve never had one expire out of the money, although I may break that record if TLT doesn’t turn around in the next three months.

Q: How would autonomous trucking impact rail transportation?

A: They’re two totally different things. Trucking companies like Yellow Corporation (YELL) carry smaller cargo for local deliveries or small long-distance deliveries. 7Some 70% of all railroad traffic is coal going to China, and the rest is bulk commodities like wood chips, iron ore, etc. Trucks don’t carry any of that, so they’re totally separate businesses. But, if we went totally autonomous on trucking, it would make all the main trucker companies massively profitable, as they get rid of their drivers. Right now, every trucking company in the US has a driver shortage.

Q: United Airlines (UAL) pilots are now ordered to get vaccinated.

A: I think within months to hold a job anywhere in the US, you will have to get vaccinated. They do not want you in the office without a vaccination. Jobs are not worth risking lives, and we hit 2,000 deaths again yesterday. The corporations are taking the lead, not the government. The exception will be the politically motivated companies, like the My Pillow Guy; I doubt they'll ever require vaccinations at My Pillow. And there are a few other companies such as Hobby Lobby that are also anti-vaxers. But all public transport companies, hospitals, etc., are going to say get vaccinated or get out—it’s very simple.

Q: Should I buy Berkshire (BRKB) here?

A: Yes, it’s a great entry point, even if you can't get my price. Go higher in the strikes or go farther out in maturity.

Q: Is copper metal (CPER) a buy here?

A: Probably long term, but short term will be subject to the whims of the Chinese real estate crisis if there is one.

Q: Won’t Natural Gas (UNG) outperform in the power grid since all EVs must be charged?

A: Not if the grid is 100% electric. Natural gas still has carbon in it, although only half as much as oil or gasoline. I think even natural gas eventually gets phased out because you can expect solar panels to improve by 80% over the next ten years. At that point, any other energy source won’t be able to compete—oil, natural gas, you name it. And that is why you don’t see any long-term money going into carbon energy sources.

Q: Iron ore has just gone from $200 to $100, why are you bullish?

A: Yes, Because it has just gone from $200 to $100. Eventually, China recovers, despite a short-term financial and housing crisis. Buy low, sell high—that’s my revolutionary new strategy.

Q: What are your thoughts on Bitcoin vs Ethereum?

A: I think Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin because it has a more modern technology. It’s only six years old, vs 12 years for Bitcoin. It’s also more efficient, using less energy in its production. In fact, we did get a double in Ethereum in August as opposed to only a 50% move in Bitcoin.

Q: Do you have any concerns on holding the financials through earnings in October?

A: No, I think the results will be fantastic, and I want to be long going into those.

Q: What does the current situation with China mean for Alibaba (BABA)?

A: Keep your stocks, you’ve already taken the hit—down 53%. The next surprise is that China quits beating up on capitalism and these things will all recover bigtime. However, any options you may have could expire before that happens. So, keep the stocks, get rid of the options, salvage whatever time value you can, and then wait for China to start doing the right thing.

Q: What are the best solar stocks?

A: First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR), which have both done great.

Q: If bonds are a no-no, and governments are getting more indebted than ever, who will buy them?

A: Governments. The only buyers of bonds now are non-economic buyers. Those would be governments, central banks, and banks who are required by law to own certain amounts of bonds to meet regulatory capital requirements. No individual in their right mind is buying any bonds here at all, nor is any financial advisor recommending them.

Good Luck and Stay Healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 27, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 27, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AUGUST 25 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(ROM), (EEM), (FXI), (DIS), (AMZN), (NFLX), (CHPT), (TLT), (TBT), (AAPL),
(GOOG), (WPM), (GOLD), (NEM), (GDX), (X), (SLV), (FCX), (BA), (HOOD), (USO)

August 25 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the August 25 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from The Atlantis Casino Hotel in Reno, NV.

Q: How does a 2X ProShares Ultra Technology ETF (ROM) February 2022 vertical bull call spread on the ROM look? Would you do $110-$115 or $115-$120?

A: I would do nothing here at $112.50 because we’ve just gone up 10 points in a week. I’d wait for some kind of pullback, even just $5 or $10 points, and then I would do the $110-$115. I’m leaning towards more conservative LEAPS these days—bets that the market goes sideways to up small rather than going ballistic, which it has done for the last 18 months. Think at-the-money strikes, not deep out-of-the-money on your LEAPS from here on for the rest of this economic cycle. The potential profits are still enormous. The only problem with (ROM) is that the longest maturities on the options are only six months.

Q: How do you recommend entering your long-term portfolio?

A: I would use the one-third rule: you put on ⅓ now, ⅓ higher or lower later on, and ⅓ higher or lower again. That way you get a good average price. Long term, everything goes up until we hit the next recession, which is probably several years off.

Q: I keep reading that the Delta variant is a market risk, but I don’t think that investors will look through this. Is Delta already priced into the shares?

A: Yes, what is not priced into the shares is the end of Delta, the end of the pandemic—and that will lead to my “everything” rally that I’ve been talking about for a month now. And we have already seen the beginning of that, especially with the price action this week. So yes, Delta in: dead market; Delta out: roaring market.

Q: Do you think there will eventually be a rotation into emerging markets (EEM), or has the virus battered these markets too much to even consider it?

A: Sometime in our future—not yet—the emerging markets will be our core holding. And the trigger for that will be the collapse of the dollar, which is hitting an interim high right now. When the greenback rolls over and dies, you can expect emerging markets, especially China, to take off like a rocket. That’s going to be our next big trade. I don't know if it will be this year or next year but it’s coming, so start doing your emerging market research now, and keep reading my newsletter.

Q: Is the coming tax hike a problem for the stock market?

A: No, I don’t think so. First off, I don’t think they’re going to do a tax bill this year; they don’t want anything to interfere with the 2022 election, so it may be next year’s business. Also, any new taxes are going to be overwhelmingly focused on billionaires, carried interest, offshoring, and large corporations. The middle class, people who make less than $400,000 a year, will not see any tax hike at all, possibly even getting some tax cuts via restored SALT deductions. So, I don't really see it affecting the stock market at all.

Q: What do you think about Chinese stocks (FXI)?

A: Long-term they’re okay, short term possibly more downside. Interestingly, the bigger risk may not be China itself and how the government is beating up its own tech companies, but the SEC. It has indicated they don’t really like these offshore vehicles that have been listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and they may move to ban them. I’m not rushing into China right now, only because there are just so many better opportunities in the US stock market for the time being. I may go back in the future—it’s a case where I’d rather buy them on the way up than trying to catch a falling knife on China right now.

Q: Do you expect any market impact from the Jackson Hole meeting?

A: Yes, whatever J Powell says, even if he says nothing, will have a market impact. And it will have a bigger impact on the bond market than it will on the stock market, which is down a full point this morning. So yes, but not yet. I imagine we’ll hear something very soon.

Q: September and October tend to be volatile; do you see us having a 5% or 10% pullback in those months?

A: I don’t see any more than 5%, with the hyper liquidity that we have in the system now. There just aren’t any events out there that could trigger a pullback of 10%—no geopolitical events, and the economy will be getting stronger, not worse. So yes, an “everything rally” doesn’t give you many long side entry points, so I just don’t see 10% happening.

Q: What about a Walt Disney (DIS) January 2022 $180-$220 LEAPS?

A: I would do the $180-$200. I think you can afford to be tighter on your spread there, take some more risk because I think it’s just going to go nuts to the upside once we get a drop in COVID cases. By the way, Disney parks are only operating at 70% capacity, so if you go back up to 100% that's a near 50% increase in profits for the company. And it’s not just Disney, but Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), and everybody else that’s about to have the greatest number of blockbuster movies released of all time. They’re holding back their big-ticket movies for the end of the pandemic when people can go back into theaters. We’ll start seeing those movies come out in the last quarter of this year, and I’m particularly looking forward to the next James Bond movie, a man after my own heart.

Q: Are EV car charging companies like ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT) going to do as well as the car companies?

A: No. They’re low margin business, so it’s not a business model for me. I like high-profit margins, huge barriers to entry, and very wide moats, which pretty much characterizes everything I own. The big profits in EVs are going to be in the cars themselves. Charging the cars is a very capital-intensive, highly regulated, and low-margin business.

Q: Would a Fed taper cause a 10% pullback?

A: Absolutely not; in fact, I think a taper would make the market go up because Jay Powell has been talking it into the market all year. And that’s his goal, is to minimize the impact of a taper so when they finally do it, they say ho-hum and “okay you can take that risk out of the market.” That’s the way these things work.

Q: What is your yearend target for United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)?

A: $132. Call it bold, but I'm all about bold. I think the first stop will be at $144, then $138, then bombs away!

Q: What will it take for (TLT) to dip below $130?

A: Another year of hot economic growth, which Congress seems hell-bent on delivering us.

Q: What are your ProShares Ultra Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) targets?

A: When we were at 1.76% on the 10-year bond, the (TBT) made it all the way back to 22 ½. Next year we go higher, probably to $25, maybe even $30.

Q: What’s your 10-year view on the (TBT)?

A: $200. That’s when you get interest rates back to 10% in 10 years on the 10-year bond. So yes, that’s a great long-term play.

Q: How long can we hold (TBT)?

A: As long as you want. Ten years would be a good time frame if you want to catch that $17 to $200 move. The (TBT) is an ETF, not an option, therefore it doesn’t expire.

Q: Are you working on an electrification stock list?

A: I am not, because it’s such a fragmented sector. It’s tough to really nail down specific stocks. I think it’s safe to say that the electric power grid is going to change beyond all recognition, but they won’t necessarily be in high margin companies, and I tend to prefer high-profit-margin, large-moat companies which nobody else can get into, like Apple (AAPL) or Google (GOOG).

Q: What about gas pipelines with high yields?

A: They have a high yield for a reason; because they’re very high risk. If you're going to a carbon-free economy, you don’t necessarily want to own pipelines whose main job is moving carbon; it’s another buggy whip-type industry I would avoid. I’ve seen people get wiped out by these things more times than I could count. If you remember Master Limited Partnerships, quite a few of them went bankrupt last year with the oil crash, so I would avoid that area. These tend to be very highly leveraged and poorly managed instruments.

Q: Best play on silver (SLV)?

A: Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) is the highest leveraged silver play out there, and a great LEAPS candidate. Go out 2 years and triple your money.

Q: Geopolitical oil (USO) risks?

A: No, nobody cares about oil anymore—that’s why we’re giving up on Afghanistan. China is buying 80% of the Persian Gulf oil right now. We don’t really need it at all, so why have our military over there to protect China’s oil supply?

Q: What about Freeport McMoRan (FCX)?

A: I absolutely love it. Any big economic recovery can’t happen without copper, and you have a huge tailwind there from electric cars which need 200 pounds of copper each, as opposed to 20 pounds in conventional cars.

Q: I see AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) is up 20% today; should everyone be chasing this stock?

A: No, absolutely not. (AMC) and all the meme stocks aren’t investments, they’re gambling, and there are better ways to gamble.

Q: Should I buy the lumber dip?

A: Yes. I think the slowdown on housing is temporary because it will take 10 years for supply and demand in the housing market to come back into balance because of all the millennials entering the housing market for the first time. So, that would be a yes on lumber and all the other commodities out there that go into housing like copper, steel, and aluminum.

Q: Should I put money into Canadian Junior Gold Miners (GDX)?

A: No, I would rather go out and take a long nap first. These are just so high risk, and they often go bankrupt. The liquidity is terrible, and the dealing spreads are wide. I would stick with the bigger precious metal plays like Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (GOLD), and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM).

Q: Is Boeing (BA) a buy here?

A: Yes, we’re back at the bottom end of the trading range for the stock. It’s just a matter of time before they get things right, and the 737 Max orders are rolling in like crazy now that there’s an airplane shortage.

Q: What do you think about Robinhood (HOOD)?

A: I like it quite a lot; I got flushed out of my long position on Friday with a 10% down move. Of course, 90% of my stop losses end up expiring at their maximum profit points, but I have to do it to keep the volatility of the portfolio down. So yes, I’ll try to buy it again on the next dip. The trouble is it’s kind of a quasi-meme stock in its own right, hence the volatility; so I would say on the next 10% down day, you go into Robinhood, and I probably will too.

Q: How are the wildfires around Tahoe?

A: They’re terrible and there are three of them. I did a hike two days ago there, and out of a parking lot with 100 spaces, I was the only one there. It’s the only time I’d ever seen Tahoe deserted in August. With visibility of 500 yards, it's just terrible. Fortunately, I was able to hike without coughing my guts out—it’s not so thick that you can’t breathe.

Q: What do you think of US Steel (X)?

A: I like it, I think the whole industrial commodity complex rallies like crazy going into the end of the year.

Q: As a new member, where is the best place to start? It’s just kind of like drinking from a fire hose.

A: Wait for the trade alerts; they only happen at sweet spots and you may have to wait a few days or weeks to get one since we only like to enter them at good points. That’s the best place to enter new positions for the first time. In the meantime, keep reading all the research, because when these trade alerts do come out, they’re not surprises because I’m pumping out research on them every day, across multiple fronts. Be patient— we are running a 93% success rate, but only because we take our time on entering good trades. The services that guarantee a trade alert every day lose money hand over fist.

Q: If they do delist Chinese stocks, will US investors be left holding the bag?

A: Yes, and that will be the only reason they don’t delist them, that they don’t want to wipe out all current US investors.

To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH or TECHNOLOGY LETTER (whichever applies to you), then select WEBINARS and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.

Good Luck and Stay Healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 19, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 19, 2021
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