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Tag Archive for: (UNH)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 5, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 5, 2020
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL MARKET BOTTOM ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(TEN LONG TERM BIOTECH & HEALTH CARE LEAPS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM)
(UNH), (HUM), (AMGN), (BIIB), (JNJ), (PFE), (BMY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-03-05 06:04:562020-03-05 05:33:12March 5, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Ten Long Term Biotech & Healthcare LEAPs to Buy at the Bottom

Biotech Letter, Diary, Newsletter

Joe Biden’s romp over Bernie Sanders in the Tuesday Democratic primary takes the lid off on the entire biotech and healthcare sector. Sanders has promised to dismantle the entire sector by promising Medicare for all and banning private coverage.

Sanders was also about to take a cudgel to drug pricing. While Sanders was leading in the primary, the threats hung over the industry like an 800-pound gorilla.

Yesterday, Sanders went down in flames. You can see this clearly in the price action of Humana (HUM), which rose a ballistic 14.44% yesterday. Similarly, United Health Group (UNH) was up a monster 10.72%.

It is safe to say that the bottom is in for biotech and healthcare stocks.

I am often asked how professional hedge fund traders invest their personal money. They all do the exact same thing. They wait for a market crash like we are seeing now and buy the longest-term LEAPs possible for their favorite names.

The reasons are very simple. The risk of a LEAP is limited. You can’t lose any more than you put in. At the same time, they permit enormous amounts of leverage.

Two years out, the longest maturity available for most LEAPs, allow plenty of time for the world and the markets to get back on an even keel. Recessions, pandemics, hurricanes, oil shocks, interest rate spikes, and political instability all go away within two years and pave the way for dramatic stock market recoveries.

You just put them away and forget about them. Wake me up when it is 2022.

I put together this portfolio using the following parameters. I set the strike prices just short of the all-time highs set two weeks ago. I went for the maximum maturity. I used today’s prices. And of course, I picked the names that have the best long-term outlooks.

If you buy LEAPs at these prices and the stocks all go to new highs, then you should earn an average 229% profit from an average stock price increase of only 11.4%. That is a return 20 times greater than the underlying stock gain. And let’s face it. None of the companies below are going to zero, ever. Now you know why hedge fund traders only employ this strategy.

There is a smarter way to execute this portfolio. Put in throw-away crash bids at levels so low they will only get executed on the next 1,000 point down day in the Dow Average.

You can play around with the strike prices all you want. Going farther out of the money increase your returns, but raises your risk as well. Going closer to the money reduces risk and returns, but the gains are still a multiple of the underlying stock.

Buying when everyone else is throwing up on their shoes is always the best policy. That way your return will rise to ten times the move in the underlying stock.

Amgen (AMGN) - January 21 2022 $235-$240 bull call spread at $3.68 delivers a 172% gain with the stock at $245, up 14% from the current level

Biogen (BIIB) - January 21 2022 $365-$375 bull call spread at $3.89 delivers a 157% gain with the stock at $375, up 14% from the current level

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - January 21 2022 $150-$155 bull call spread at $1.63 delivers a 206% gain with the stock at $155, up 8.3% from the current level

Pfizer (PFE) - January 21 2022 $40-$45 bull call spread at $1.05 delivers a 376% gain with the stock at $40.60, up 11.5% from the current level

Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY) - January 21 2022 $65-$70 bull call spread at $1.50 delivers a 233% gain with the stock at $68, up 11.40% from the current level

 

 

 

 

 

Is He Saying “BUY”?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/biden.png 527 791 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-03-05 06:02:212020-03-10 15:15:57Ten Long Term Biotech & Healthcare LEAPs to Buy at the Bottom
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 29, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Health Care Letter
October 29, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE BIG MEDICARE PLAN WITH HUMANA),
(ANTM), (CI), (HUM), (UNH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-29 08:02:112019-10-29 08:12:32October 29, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Big Medicare Play with Humana

Biotech Letter

Sometimes, markets are right, and sometimes, they are wrong. With regard to the healthcare industry these days, they have definitely got it wrong. For they are overweighting the political risk to this group presented by the 2020 presidential election.

Even if the most extreme leftist candidate, Elizabeth Warren, wins, she will still have to get the plans through congress. And after the experience of the last three years, you can bet the next congress will be a pretty moderate bunch.

Just as President Trump found it impassable to kill Obamacare, even with an all-Republican Congress, Warren will find it equally difficult to get the most expensive form of Medicare for all passed into law.

Take this view, and all of a sudden, the healthcare industry becomes wildly cheap. In fact, it is one of the lowest valued, highest earning sectors in the entire stock market.

Shares of managed care companies have certainly struggled this year. For instance, Anthem (ANTM) went down 5.1%, Cigna (CI) sunk 13.2%, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) declined by 2.2%, and Humana (HUM) fell 0.3%.

Due to the country’s turbulent political climate courtesy of the impending 2020 elections, investors are anxious over Medicare for All, which has the capacity to shut down the entire industry altogether.

As expected, these fears have weighed heavily on health insurance stocks and these companies are anticipated to experience a rollercoaster of emotions in the next year and a half. However, there could be convincing reasons for Humana to stand out from the rest.

Zeroing in on “population health management” along with “social determinant of health,” the company has been working on boosting its dominance on nonclinical services to deliver better health results. This is because approximately 80% of health outcomes are linked to nonclinical issues. Hence, this initiative could lead to improved products for customers and cost savings.

This is why Medicare Advantage, which allows private insurers to collaborate with Medicare for care coverage, turned into the “crown jewel” of Humana’s growth strategies. Basically, this plan appears and functions like a private health plan but is actually a government-sponsored program.

To date, Humana is the second biggest Medicare Advantage provider growing its membership by 15% during the second quarter of both 2018 and 2019.

As of 2018, the company holds a 17% share of the 20.4 million people enrolled in the Medicare Advantage program, with plans comprising roughly a quarter of the managed care’s medical membership. This accounts for almost three times the industry average, which indicates a positive growth for Humana as Medicare is projected as the fastest-growing sector of the insurance industry in terms of spending.

Actually, basic math could easily illustrate Humana’s upward trajectory as well. The number of Americans eligible for a Medicare plan is increasing by roughly 3% annually. Based on data from the Congressional Budget Office, the number of Medicare recipients opting for Medicare Advantage is estimated to climb from 34% of those eligible for Medicare in 2018 to 42% by 2028. Clearly, this increase offers a lot of room for growth, and Humana is smack dab in the center of it.

Although UnitedHealth actually has more members in the said program at the moment, no other managed care company is as intensive and focused as Humana. In fact, 73% of Humana’s consolidated revenue comes from its Medicare Advantage membership earnings alone. This makes the company a Medicare Advantage pure play.

Holding its position as one of the leaders in this private option available within the Medicare community, Humana has established a stronghold in this ever-evolving and constantly turbulent industry. So far, the stock’s price target is projected to hit $315. Long-term investors could also finally expect to shake off healthcare fear jitters and big rewards from 2021 onwards if the elections result in Democratic leadership.

Looking at Humana’s earnings history, it can be seen that it has grown from $7.75 per share in 2015 to $14.55 by 2018. For this year, the company’s projected earnings is expected to reach $17.50 a share. However, the possibility of a federal tax on health insurers could pose a threat to the company’s growth.

Humana is well-poised for advancement on the back of its strategic plans involving its Medicare business and promising initiatives. In the past years, Humana has been deploying excess capital and hiking its dividend. Just in February 2019, the company increased its dividend by 10% to reach 55 cents a share.

As part of its repurchase strategy, Humana allocated $3 billion for its buyback plans. These moves further indicate the financial capacity of the company and could hopefully reinvigorate investor confidence.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/humana.png 222 899 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-29 08:00:052019-10-29 09:15:17The Big Medicare Play with Humana
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