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Tag Archive for: (VRTX)

april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Rise Of The Steady Eddies

Biotech Letter

Think of the market as a body fighting off an infection. Tech stocks might be the flashy antibodies, but healthcare is the steady, reliable immune system, keeping things stable when the going gets tough. And right now, that immune system is looking stronger than ever.

Skeptical? I get it. We've heard the hype about healthcare before.  But this time, it's different.

The Healthcare Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) has been on a tear, up 9.3% this year as of Thursday's close. That's nearly keeping pace with the broader S&P 500's 12% gain - a remarkable feat in a market that's been anything but stable.

But what's even more impressive is the turnaround. Back in mid-July, XLV was lagging behind like a three-legged horse in the Kentucky Derby, up only 8.3% while the S&P 500 was showing off with an 18% gain.

In fact, out of the 63 healthcare stocks in the S&P 500, only a dozen have been slacking off since July. The rest? They've been outperforming like it's going out of style.

So what changed?

Well, it wasn't so much that healthcare stocks suddenly discovered the fountain of youth. No, my friends, it was more like the rest of the market decided to take a swan dive off the high board.

You see, while tech stocks were busy doing their best Icarus impression – flying too close to the sun and then plummeting back to earth – healthcare stocks were steady as she goes. It's like the old tortoise and hare story, except in this version, the hare got distracted by shiny objects and ran off a cliff.

Now, let's shine the spotlight on some of the key players driving this healthcare rally.

Remember those health insurers everyone was worried about back in spring? The ones that had investors biting their nails over the future of Medicare Advantage? Well, they've made a comeback.

The S&P 500 Managed Health Care index was down 12% in mid-April, looking about as healthy as a chain smoker with a Big Mac habit. But now? It's up 4.5% since the start of the year.

Companies like Centene (CNC) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) have bounced back faster than a rubber band on steroids.

And it's not just the insurers. Big Pharma's been flexing, too.

Pfizer (PFE), the company that became a household name faster than you can say "vaccine," is holding steady. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is up 2.2%, probably thanks to all that baby powder they're not selling anymore.

Meanwhile, AbbVie’s (ABBV) up 11% since July. These guys are like the Energizer Bunny of the pharma world – they just keep going and going.

But the real showstopper? Eli Lilly (LLY). This biopharma has been on a tear since the beginning of 2024. Up 45% on the year at one point, they've been climbing faster than a squirrel up a tree with a dog in hot pursuit.

Then, there are companies like Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO), up 20% since July. Universal Health Services (UHS)? Up 18% since July. Waters (WAT), the life sciences tools folks? Up 15%.

Even the biotechs are out to impress.

Amgen (AMGN), the granddaddy of biotech, is up 10% year-to-date. They're selling drugs like Prolia and Enbrel faster than hotcakes at a lumberjack convention.

And Amgen’s pipeline? It’s packed with potential blockbusters, setting the stage for further expansion in the future.

Gilead Sciences (GILD)? Up 15% year-to-date. Turns out, their COVID-19 treatment, Remdesivir, is back in vogue like bell-bottom jeans. And their HIV and hepatitis C drugs? They're still growing stronger.

But the real rock star of biotech? That'd be Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN). These guys are up over 30% year-to-date. They're treating everything from eye diseases to cancer to inflammation.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) is another one to watch. Up 12% this year, they've got the cystic fibrosis market cornered. And they're not stopping there – they're expanding faster thanks to their collaboration with the likes of Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP).

Now that I’ve mentioned gene therapy, I know you're wondering about Moderna (MRNA). After all, weren’t they the darlings of the COVID era? Well, yes and no.

Their stock's down about 35% year-to-date, but don't count them out just yet. Their mRNA technology is hotter than a jalapeño popper fresh out of the fryer. They might be down, but they're definitely not out.

So, what's the takeaway here? I suggest you keep your eyes peeled on the biotechnology and healthcare sectors. After all, in this market, the best offense might just be a good defense – and what's more defensive than betting on the sector that keeps us all alive and kicking?

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-13 12:00:092024-08-13 13:23:24The Rise Of The Steady Eddies
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 16, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 16, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(SMALL GIANTS RISING)

(GMAB), (OPHLY), (VRTX), (INCY), (BIIB), (AHKSY), (ALNY), (ARGX), (BGNE), (MRNA), (NBIX), (BNTX), (IPSEY), (CTLT), (NVO), (LLY), (JNJ), (GILD), (ABBV), (MRK), (SNY), (BMY), (GSK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-16 12:02:382024-07-16 12:17:35July 16, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Small Giants Rising

Biotech Letter

Remember when David took down Goliath? Well, history's repeating itself in the biotech arena, and this time, David's got deep pockets and a Ph.D.

Since April, I've been watching a trend on the so-called "next-generation" players in biotech and healthcare world. It reminds me of the massive changes I witnessed in Asian markets back in the '70s.

Over the past months, companies like Genmab (GMAB), Ono Pharmaceutical (OPHLY), Vertex (VRTX), Incyte (INCY), Biogen (BIIB), and Asahi Kasei (AHKSY) have been making waves that would impress even the most seasoned surfer. And these next-gen dealmakers aren't just dipping their toes in the M&A pool - they're doing cannonballs.

With cash reserves that would make Scrooge McDuck blush, these companies are overturning industry norms, already joining the prestigious $100 billion market cap club. At this celebration, the champagne flows freely.

So, what’s the play here?

With IPOs cooling down like day-old coffee, companies eyeing public debuts are now ripe targets for acquisition, more tempting than a juicy peach.

This fresh class of biotechs, unphased by the FTC's scrutiny that acts like kryptonite to pharma giants, are acting more like rocket fuel for these agile consolidators.

They slide through regulatory gaps faster than a greased pig at a county fair, grabbing six out of ten biopharma M&A deals in the second quarter alone. They’re not just taking a slice of the pie—they’re rewriting the recipe.

And if we're talking about firepower? These newcomers boast an average of $3.8 billion in pro forma adjusted cash, which isn't just walking-around money — that's "buy a small country" money.

But don't think for a second that this cash is just sitting pretty in their coffers. These upstarts are putting their money where their mouth is.

Take Incyte, for instance. They flexed their financial muscle with a $2 billion buyback in May 2024, sending a clear message to the market: "We're here to play, and we're playing to win."

And that's just the tip of the iceberg. The industry as a whole is lounging on a cool $1.5 trillion. That's enough liquidity to stretch the imagination — perhaps even to purchase a small planet. Mars, anyone? Elon might give us a discount.

But this financial might isn't just about buying power – it's about survival. As I said before, Big Pharma is teetering on a patent cliff that threatens to erode their revenue streams. To stay competitive, they're scrambling to replenish their pipelines, acquiring promising assets and gobbling up innovative technologies with the voracity of Pac-Man on steroids. And it's not just the usual suspects making moves.

This sense of urgency has created a fertile ground for an emerging cohort of aggressive dealmakers. Companies like Alnylam (ALNY), argenx (ARGX), BeiGene (BGNE), Moderna (MRNA), Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), BioNTech (BNTX), and Ipsen (IPSEY) are biting off more than the market expected them to chew, and they're coming to the table hungry.

And these companies aren't just nibbling around the edges. They're making bold moves, acquiring cutting-edge biotech firms with promising pipelines. We're talking oncology, epilepsy, kidney diseases, cardiovascular plays –  it's like someone turned a medical textbook into a shopping catalog.

In fact, even the big boys are flexing their muscles.

Novo Holdings (NVO) dropped a jaw-dropping $16.5 billion on Catalent (CTLT). That's not even for a drug - it's for manufacturing. Talk about betting on the picks and shovels in this biotech gold rush.

Eli Lilly (LLY) just plunked down $3.2 billion on Morphic Therapeutic (MORF), betting big on inflammation, immunity, and oncology.

Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) been on a shopping spree, too, snagging Numab's Yellow Jersey for $1.25 billion and Proteologix for $850 million. Both plays in inflammation and immunity - clearly, they've found their sweet spot.

Biogen's not twiddling its thumbs either, striking a deal with HI-Bio worth up to $1.8 billion.

Not to be outdone, Gilead (GILD) shook hands with CymaBay Therapeutics to the tune of $4.3 billion. Even AbbVie (ABBV), playing it cooler, still dropped a cool $250 million on Celsius.

Meanwhile, Merck's (MRK) set its sights on EyeBio for up to $3 billion, focusing on ophthalmology.

Sanofi (SNY), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), GSK (GSK) - they're all in, placing their chips on everything from rare diseases to generics to asthma. Clearly, the Big Pharma giants are also trying to keep up with this shift. 

As the biotech field evolves, watching these underdogs will be like watching history in the making — where today's Davids become tomorrow's Goliaths. I suggest you keep a close eye on the names above. Adding them to your portfolio would mean you’re not just watching the giants rise — you’ll be a part of the story.

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-16 12:00:452024-07-16 12:17:13Small Giants Rising
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

June 27, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 27, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE BIOTECH LEATHERNECK THAT WON’T STAND DOWN)

(VRTX), (CRSP), (ABBV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-27 12:02:132024-06-27 13:08:39June 27, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Biotech Leatherneck That Won't Stand Down

Biotech Letter

Back in my Marine days, I remember being dropped in the middle of nowhere during a grueling field exercise. No map, no compass, just our wits and training to guide us back to base.

The odds were stacked against us, but we adapted, improvised, and overcame. Fast forward to roughly half a century, and I'm seeing the same spirit in an unlikely place - the biotechnology sector.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) has been executing maneuvers that would make any seasoned Marine proud. They move with the precision of a well-oiled M16 and the adaptability of a Force Recon team.

Their strategic acquisitions? As coordinated as an amphibious landing. That pipeline of theirs? Locked and loaded like a Marine fire team.

As I dive into Vertex's recent maneuvers, I can't help but see parallels to the strategies we used to employ. They're not just developing drugs – they're waging a full-scale assault on diseases that have long evaded defeat.

It's this Marine-like tenacity that's kept this $122 billion biotech on my radar, and why I think they've still got plenty of fight left in them.

Remember when I last wrote about Vertex in February? The stock was already hotter than a mess tent coffee pot then. Since that newsletter, it's climbed another 10%, leaving the S&P 500 in its dust like a young boot on a forced march.

And if you've been holding onto Vertex for the past decade? Well, pour yourself a whiskey and celebrate. You're sitting on a 545% return. That's not a typo, my friends. It has truly beaten the S&P 500 by over 300 points.

Now, I know what you're thinking. "John," you say, "hasn't this non-dividend payer run out of ammo after adding $20 billion to its market cap?" Well, let me tell you why I think Vertex still has enough firepower to make even a seasoned Gunny sit up and take notice.

So, here's the skinny on Vertex – they've got a knack for developing groundbreaking drugs that would make even our old field medics green with envy. They lock 'em down with patents tighter than a drill sergeant's schedule, and dominate niche markets like we used to dominate obstacle courses.

In Q1 2024, Vertex hauled in $2.69 billion in revenue, up 14% from last year. That's not just chump change – that's serious cabbage, even by Wall Street standards.

But here's where it gets interesting, and I mean more interesting than finding an unopened can of beer in your rucksack after a long hump.

Vertex isn't just sitting pretty. Their late-stage pipeline is packed tighter than a C-130 on deployment day, full of potential blockbusters that could change lives – and fatten our wallets.

Take Vanzacaftor, for instance. This cystic fibrosis drug is showing more promise than a boot camp graduate on family day. If it lives up to the hype, we could be looking at a new gold standard in CF treatment.

And then there's Suzetrigine. Now, this one's got me more excited than a three-day pass in Vegas. It's a non-opioid painkiller, and with the opioid crisis still raging harder than a Category 5 hurricane, a safe, effective alternative could be a game-changer.

Early data looks promising, and Vertex is pushing to finish its rolling submission by Q2 2024. As for its potential market? Well, that's bigger than the chow line on Thanksgiving.

We're talking about 80 million patients prescribed pain meds in the U.S. every year, covering one billion calendar days of treatment.

If Suzetrigine can grab even a slice of that pie, we're looking at another potential blockbuster that could make AbbVie’s (ABBV) top-selling Humira look like small potatoes.

But Vertex isn't content with just dominating CF and pain management. They're also pushing into new territories.

In April, they dropped $4.9 billion to snap up Alpine Immune Sciences, grabbing the rights to Povetacicept. This mid-stage drug targets IgA Nephropathy, which affects about 130,000 people in the U.S. That's a smart flanking maneuver if I ever saw one.

On top of all these, though, I think the biotech’s real showstopper might be Casgevy, Vertex's gene therapy for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia.

Developed with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), this cutting-edge treatment uses CRISPR gene-editing technology.

It's like having a sniper rifle when everyone else is still using muskets. Vertex sees this as a potential multi-billion dollar opportunity, and I'm inclined to agree. It could be bigger than the Pentagon's budget – well, almost.

Look, I get it. Vertex doesn't pay a dividend, which might turn off some of you income-focused folks faster than a week-old MRE. But for those willing to bet on growth, this biotech juggernaut still has plenty of fight left in it.

With a killer pipeline spanning CF, pain management, kidney health, and even type 1 diabetes, Vertex is primed to keep growing like kudzu in August.

Their solid portfolio and promising drug candidates make it a compelling investment, and those revenue and EPS projections? They're music to my ears – sweeter than Taps at the end of a long day.

Here's my take: With a fair stock price target of $566, Vertex still has significant upside potential. I think it’s a biotech powerhouse that deserves a spot on your watchlist – right next to your old service medals.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-27 12:00:362024-06-27 13:07:19The Biotech Leatherneck That Won't Stand Down
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

June 11, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 11, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE CAPITAL CURE)

(ABBV), (MRK), (PFE), (RHHBY), (JNJ), (AZN), (GSK), (MRNA), (BNTX), (CRSP), (NTLA), (BEAM), (TPTX), (ZNTL), (MRTX), (BPMC), (MGNX), (TYRA), (SPRT), (VRTX), (FOLD), (RARE), (CRBU)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-11 12:02:072024-06-11 12:03:24June 11, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Capital Cure

Biotech Letter

Imagine you're the CEO of a major pharmaceutical company. You've got blockbuster drugs that are raking in billions, a cushy corner office, and a corporate jet at your disposal. Life is good.

But then, you look at the calendar and realize that your patents are about to expire. Suddenly, that jet feels more like a crop duster, and your corner office starts to feel like a broom closet.

That's the reality facing Big Pharma right now. These pharma big shots are sweating bullets over losing their golden geese like AbbVie's (ABBV) Humira and Merck's (MRK) Keytruda.

That’s roughly $300 billion in products about to get kicked to the curb.

But these guys didn't get to the top by sitting on their hands. They've got a war chest of $1 trillion, and they're not afraid to use it.

Major pharmaceutical giants like Pfizer (PFE), Roche (RHHBY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AstraZeneca (AZN), and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) are about to go on the mother of all shopping sprees.

Why the rush? Because they're staring down the barrel of a patent cliff that's going to make the Grand Canyon look like a pothole.

We're talking $198 billion worth of branded drugs going off the patent cliff between 2021 and 2025. That's a gut-wrenching 56% jump from the last five years.

But don't think for a second that they're just going to sit back and watch their profits go up in smoke. No sir, they're on the hunt for the next big thing, and they've got their sights set on some juicy targets – and biotech is at the top of their list.

Leading the biotech charge are mRNA pioneers Moderna (MRNA) and BioNTech (BNTX), each sitting on a gold mine of potential blockbusters taking on everything from flu to cancer vaccines.

Underdogs like CRISPR (CRSP) biotech stars Intellia (NTLA) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) are also squarely in Big Pharma's acquisition crosshairs for their cutting-edge work in genetic disease treatments.

But beyond the headliners, don't overlook the sleeper hits that could catalyze the next big boom.

Oncology, in particular, is a prime hunting ground, accounting for 37% of pharma M&A deal value in 2023 as the $392 billion global cancer drug market continues to boom.

Companies like Turning Point Therapeutics (TPTX) and Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (ZNTL), with their promising targeted therapies for various solid tumors, are particularly attractive prospects.

Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX), focused on KRAS inhibitors, and Blueprint Medicines (BPMC), specializing in precision therapies, have also caught the eye of big pharma with their innovative approaches.

Additionally, companies with late-stage assets like MacroGenics (MGNX), Mereo BioPharma (MREO), and Tyra Biosciences (TYRA) could offer promising near-term revenue opportunities for acquiring companies looking to bolster their oncology portfolios.

Close behind are rare disease treatments, snagging 16% of new drug approvals and 9 of the top 100 deals last year in this $262 billion market ripe for more growth.

This lucrative sector has captivated pharma giants, who see potential in companies like Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), leaders in rare disease therapies with strong financial performance and consistent growth.

Aside from these, smaller biotechs like Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE), focused on developing innovative therapies for a range of rare diseases, are attracting attention for their potential to address unmet medical needs and deliver substantial returns on investment.

But the real wild card everyone wants a piece of is cell and gene therapies. This medical Wild West is projected to explode to $66.8 billion by 2030, with the FDA already greenlighting 6 cutting-edge therapies like next-gen CAR-T treatments from Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) in 2023 alone.

Notably, the buying frenzy is very much already underway. In fact, 2023 saw the biggest biotech M&A spree in a decade, with a staggering $122.2 billion changing hands as the FDA approved 50% more new therapies.

Pharma mega-mergers also hit $135.5 billion as firms raced to reload pipelines.

Interestingly, these deals are only the tip of the iceberg. As Wall Street predicts, with record-smashing deals, sky-high demand, and new approvals surging, "biotech's got plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic."

Especially if interest rates finally cooperate, throwing gasoline on the M&A bonfire and making biotech the belle of the ball as soon as late 2024.

So keep your eyes peeled and your powder dry. I suggest you add these innovative biotech names to your watchlist, and you might just discover the next blockbuster drug or breakthrough therapy that could reshape medicine – and deliver explosive returns in the process.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-11 12:00:012024-06-11 12:03:04The Capital Cure
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 9, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 9, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(A HIGH-RISK, HIGH REWARD BIOTECH PLAY)

(CRSP), (VRTX), (DNA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-09 12:02:562024-05-09 12:04:15May 9, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A High-Risk, High Reward Biotech Play

Biotech Letter

Ah, the "golden age of biotech" — remember when that was the phrase du jour? Well, it might not be on everyone’s lips these days, but let me tell you, the biotech arena still holds some golden tickets for those with an eye for long-term gems.

These hotbeds of innovation aren’t just cooking up your everyday aspirin; they’re on the front lines battling the big beasts like rare diseases and crafting cures that might have seemed like sci-fi a few decades ago.

So, why should we keep our wallets ready for biotech? Simple: life-saving meds aren't exactly impulse buys at the checkout counter. People need these drugs, economy be darned. And that, my friends, brings us to a biotech belle of the ball: Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP).

Now, if you’re hunting for the disruptors of the disruptors, cast your eyes on CRISPR/Cas9 gene-editing technology. And leading the charge?  Crispr Therapeutics, of course.  Their new FDA-approved therapy, Casgevy?  Think of it as a microscopic search-and-replace function for your genes, pinpointing the exact spot that needs fixing. Snipping out a faulty gene? Child's play for CRISPR.

This isn't just about editing genes willy-nilly. This technology, honed and shepherded through the halls of academia, now bears the fruit of a Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2020 — a tip of the hat to one of CRISPR Therapeutics’ founders, Charpentier.

With exclusive rights to this CRISPR/Cas9 tech, they’re not just playing in the minor leagues; they’re major league players with the FDA-approved Casgevy aimed at tackling sickle cell disease (SCD).

If you’re feeling more cautious, however, then Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) might be a steadier ride. It’s a bigger boat with more therapies on the market.

But if you’re feeling a bit more Maverick, a direct bet on Crispr Therapeutics could be your kind of play. Smaller in size, sure, but with a direct line to the gains (or pains) from Casgevy, and boy, does biotech love a high stakes game.

So, what does throwing your chips in with CRISPR entail? Let's unwrap this.

First off, their Casgevy is a pioneering ex vivo CRISPR-Cas9 therapy—think of it as a pit stop where cells are tuned up outside the body before being put back in the race. It’s already got the green light from the FDA for not one, but two heavy hitters: sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT).

But here’s the rub: despite these big wins, CRISPR’s stock has been more or less jogging in place for five years. Why? It seems the market’s giving the side-eye to the commercial rollout of these therapies. But hold up—shouldn’t the stock be climbing as these treatments start to hit the market?

Well, the game here is more marathon than sprint. We're talking about a potential addressable market for these treatments that’s just aching to be tapped into. But there’s a catch—the price tag is a whopper at $2.2 million a pop. That’s a lot of zeroes.

Now, let’s do some napkin math.

If CRISPR could corner the market on all SCD and TDT patients across the US and EU, we're looking at a ballpark figure of around $38.6 billion in potential revenue. And here's the kicker: the real puzzle is figuring out how many of these folks will actually get treated with Casgevy, given the steep costs and varied insurance landscapes.

Yet, if CRISPR can snag just a slice of this market, even with a high discount rate factored in for all the risk, the numbers start to look pretty tasty.

Imagine if they treated all these patients over a decade—ka-ching! That’s an NPV (net present value) that could potentially justify CRISPR’s current market cap all on its own.

Overall, investing in CRISPR Therapeutics could be akin to buying a stake in Genentech (DNA) back in the day—before they hit the biotech jackpot.

With Casgevy already approved and more potential blockbusters in the pipeline, CRISPR isn't just about today’s gains; it’s about betting on a biotech future that could be as revolutionary as the invention of the wheel—if the wheel could edit your DNA, that is.

What’s the verdict then? If you’re game for a ride on the wild side of biotech with a company that’s rewriting the genetic code of healthcare, CRISPR Therapeutics might just be the stock to watch. So buckle up because it’s going to be an exciting ride.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-09 12:00:022024-05-09 12:00:37A High-Risk, High Reward Biotech Play
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

April 16, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 16, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(IS THIS BIOTECH BULL RUN OUT OF STEAM?)

(VRTX), (CRSP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-04-16 12:02:462024-04-16 11:27:06April 16, 2024
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