Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 9, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CHINA AND NVIDIA AT LOGGERHEADS)
($COMPQ), (NVDA)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 9, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CHINA AND NVIDIA AT LOGGERHEADS)
($COMPQ), (NVDA)
Claiming Nvidia (NVDA) is stunting competition is just the beginning of the end as the tech war between China and the United States heats up again as we get prepared for a new administration to take over the White House.
This appears like a strategic shot across the bow and instead of just talking tough, China is throwing up a pre-emptive attack to counter whatever is in store for them past 2024.
Technology has been a national issue for some time and the follow through has been quite robust as China has bulldozed their way to corner the EV market with national champion BYD.
China is doing well in tech, but understands their tech sector cannot co-exist with Silicon Valley in the long term.
The probe is aimed at Nvidia's practices regarding possible anti-monopoly violations. It is also set to examine its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox, a purchase that was approved by China's State Administration for Market Regulation under the condition that the chipmaker would avoid discriminating against Chinese companies.
According to a Chinese media report, the government believes Nvidia’s $7 billion purchase of the Israeli computer networking equipment maker may have violated Beijing's anti-monopoly rules.
The U.S. has amped up restrictions on chip sales to China in recent years, barring Nvidia and other key semiconductor manufacturers from selling their most-advanced artificial intelligence chips in an effort to limit China from strengthening its military. The company has worked to create new products to sell in China that abide by the U.S. regulations.
I remember the golden years in China where growth was unwavering and every recent American college graduate would jump at the chance to make a career in China.
China, along with many other rich Western countries, have hit a wall with growth models that are delivering diminishing returns.
Asia is struggling and there is no other way to describe it.
The United States continues to power through with the top income bracket and enterprise money propping up the rest of the market and minting millionaires through higher tech stocks.
Nvidia is the jewel of America’s recent success and they promise to bolster Americas claim as the flag bearer of the AI movement. The loser would be zero sum and that loser would be China.
Threatening the best in show of American tech is a bold move by China and it smells of desperation.
There have been whispers of a major currency devaluation to the Chinese yuan in the pipeline which would hurt the economy similar to how the Japanese yen crash has crippled the Japanese.
Then, over the weekend, Syria being overthrown and Russia being able to pull back resources indicates that Russia plans to wind down its operation in Eastern Europe and America could set the stage for conflict in China.
Pulling military resources in Eastern Europe and allocating it further east to China would make sense since the upcoming administration views China as a bigger threat than Russia.
China’s political move to name Nvidia as anti-competitive could be the new beginning of a nasty pernicious relationship for the next 4 years between the 2 governments.
What does that mean for tech stocks?
Buy the dip in Nvidia on news like this.
Stepping back and looking at the Nasdaq ($COMPQ), this won’t take down the index.
Nvidia shares grew around 200% in 2024 and although I don’t expect a repeat performance in 2025, capital is pouring in from the sidelines from abroad and at home.
One thing I can tell you is that money from nowhere is pouring into China, especially the foreign type, because the hostile government means investing there is impossible and idiotic for outsiders.
I am bearish China’s economy and optimistic that U.S. tech stocks can muscle through the China headwinds.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 6, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A SHORT TERM TRADE)
(UBER), (GOOGL), (TSLA), (WRD)
Uber’s (UBER) stock is almost 30% down from all-time high’s, and the stock was on a nice run from the lows of 2023 when the stock was trading around $25 per share.
There has been great optimism around the business, with revenge travel stoking a huge growth bump in the ride-sharing business.
Uber once burned through money like there was no tomorrow, but now it is a profitable business.
However, there are outsized risks just around the corner, and the stock has pulled back because the next risk might be existential.
They are running into one of the greatest innovators the world has ever seen.
Tesla (TSLA) and Elon Musk have made a lot of noise lately about self-driving robotaxis, and they do have their proprietary software with billions of driving hours of data.
Uber has nothing like this, and the more Elon Musk elbows out the competition about the self-driving technology, the more Uber’s share price sinks.
Uber is the tech company most affected if Musk successfully implements robo taxis as a main part of Tesla’s business.
By now, it is becoming quite apparent that EVs aren’t the holy grail of technology Musk is chasing after. It is merely a placeholder until he goes onto greater projects and technologies.
Sure, first, it would be rockets and space, but on Earth, Musk is after artificial intelligence through robots, and one of those applications would be self-driving automobiles.
Google’s Waymo is another long-term investors in self-driving tech that will destroy Uber’s business model as well.
Uber just said it would partner with robotaxi maker WeRide (WRD) to launch ride-hailing in Abu Dhabi. Uber said it would be the first time AVs are available on the Uber platform outside of the US and that Abu Dhabi would be the largest commercial robotaxi service outside the US and China when it launches in 2025.
Waymo (GOOGL) lately said it would expand its robotaxi service to Miami, Florida.
Waymo has previously tested vehicles in Miami, the company said, a city that provided “challenging rainy conditions” for its driverless vehicles, and Uber’s stock crashed 10% on this news itself.
Waymo said it is already providing 150,000 trips per week in Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Austin.
Uber still has to pay for over 160 million month active riders to get shuttled around on its app, and when they are muscled out of the technology by Google and Tesla, it is not guaranteed they will be able to license this high level of proprietary technology from these big tech stalwarts.
If you are Google or Tesla, why ever involve Uber when you could pick up their riders for pennies on the dollar after Uber bankrupts itself because of the high cost of employing human drivers?
Long term looks quite grim for Uber, and I don’t believe there is a magical elixir for the self-driving software. They are too far behind.
The one hunch I have is that over the past year, Waymo and Tesla have made the concept of the masses taking self-driving technology as a real service closer and closer.
Each day, we inch closer, and the day of full implementation will be a death knell for Uber.
However, in the short term, I do believe Uber’s stock is oversold, and it could stage a bounce back in the short to mid-term.
Any dive into the high $50 range would be a great buying opportunity for a quick trade in Uber. I wouldn’t buy and hold for the long haul, there are better options.
“Too much respect for authority inhibits innovation.” – Said Elon Musk
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 4, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MANAGEMENT TURNOVER IN TECH SPURRING CHANGES)
(INTC), (CRWD), (PANW)
CEO’s are toast as the CEO turnover tally starts to explode at the end of 2024.
There appears to be a strong trend that will grow in 2025, and that is corporate tech companies looking to the bullpen to substitute out the CEO.
They aren’t doing enough for their respective companies, and that needs to change.
This speaks volumes to the tough times in which debt has become too expensive to fund growth.
Tech companies have always played by the idea of the “winner takes all” mentality, and 2024 underscored this trend by seeing the likes of the Magnificent 7 grow in size and stature.
Through October, more than 1,800 CEOs have announced their departures this year. The outperformance of big tech stocks means that shareholders are putting massive pressure on management to juice up their own stock prices.
The number of exits is up 19% from the more than 1,500 departures during the same period last year, which was the previous year-to-date record.
Boards of directors are becoming impatient and ambitious, holding their CEOs accountable for underperformance — both in terms of profits and stock price.
The expected length of tenure as a CEO, on average, is declining as a result of these performance pressures.
The massive stock market gains of the past two years — the S&P gained roughly 20% in 2023 and is set to gain more than that by the end of 2024 — also pose challenges to US companies.
The outperformance of big tech is forcing shareholders to lean into their own management and demand answers to why they are falling behind.
The answer is complicated, and I acknowledge that many CEOs aren’t in the position to throw around capital like the CEO of Apple, Tim Cook, or CEO of Meta Zuckerberg.
These leaders can chase the next big thing and can strike out many times and not even bat an eyelid.
High turnover shows growing risk appetites and "a desire for leaders who can navigate increasing complexity in the macro business environment, including tech transformation, sustainability, geopolitical crises, and social issues."
If a company’s figurative boat is sinking while most others are enjoying a rising tide, corrective action must be taken by the CEO and or the Board.
If the CEO doesn’t have a clear plan for a turnaround, the Board finds someone who has a plan and the strength to execute that plan. It doesn’t matter if the CEO is actually at fault. Blame is assigned, and heads roll. It isn’t always fair.
Many of these tech CEOs cannot just issue dividends or execute stock buybacks to manipulate the share prices higher.
I believe these shareholder returns will be a key tool for big tech to jump over the low bar after a bevy of lower-than-expected guidance.
Next year, we could experience the haves and have nots in tech separate from each other even further.
Many of these hot chip names are right in the middle of their growth curves.
Software stocks still look good on the dips.
Lately, there were selloffs in cyber security stocks like Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD).
Traders bought the dip after weak guidance, and this is an example of where there is an opportunity as a trader to get in at optimal entry points.
“AI and the robots will provide any goods and services that you want.” – Said Elon Musk
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 2, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(STICK WITH ENTERPRISE TECH IN 2025)
(HPE), (DELL), (TSLA), (NVDA)
Although, on the surface, tech stocks might be performing quite well, we need to talk about an imminent issue that could affect them.
I would even say that I am quite surprised by how the year is panning out.
There was so much uncertainty going into this year, and the election was a brutal contest that was bitterly fought.
However, the election gave us a clear winner, triggering a short-term tsunami of capital into tech stocks with the likes of Tesla (TSLA) leading the charge.
Even institutional money from heavyweights like Blackrock and others poured into tech stocks like there was no tomorrow.
TSLA is up today again on more stock upgrades.
If one ever needed a skinny variety of reliable tech stocks, then investing capital in Nvidia, Tesla, and perhaps Netflix or a Meta would be a solid foundation.
It is not only the Midas touch in the tech world, with management at HP and Dell saying the computer and laptop business isn’t all too hot.
Revenue generated by Dell’s (DELL) PC business declined 1% to $12.1 billion in the fiscal third quarter, falling short of estimates. While sales in HP’s (HPE) PC unit rose 2% to $9.59 billion, missing forecasts.
The PC refresh cycle is pushing into next year (2025), said Dell management.
HP Chief Executive Officer Enrique Lores said in an interview that the release of Microsoft’s new edition of Windows software hasn’t fueled PC sales from corporate clients as quickly as in previous releases.
The market had seen a historic decline in recent years after a burst of demand for new laptops in the early months of the pandemic when students and corporate employees were stuck at home. While signs of a rebound began to materialize this year, shipments again dipped in the third quarter.
This type of narrative has been put in motion by the crowd who think a new administration and their immigration stance will cause rampant inflation in wages.
No doubt, a lot of changes will take place in the next 50 days and after, and that type of uncertainty could deliver us a sharp selloff if short-term pain is sensed by the market.
Comments from Best Buy already set a very low bar even lower, as the recession that was supposed to take place in 2018 could be sneaking up on us.
The unemployment rate is forecasted to peak at 4.4% and has been steadily trending higher, highlighting the weakening of the US consumer.
There is a good chance that in 2025, retail tech will be in a recession before enterprise tech and enterprise tech stocks will be the last bastion of a narrowing market growth.
The key signal to focus on is a big Bitcoin sell-off that could trigger a flight to safety.
As long as market action stays orderly, I expect the pain trade to go higher in tech stocks in an uneven way, and I would avoid any tech stocks directly connected to American retail shoppers.
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