• support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • Home
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Us
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 16, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Money makes money.” – Said Benjamin Franklin

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/benjamin-franklin.png 394 302 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-16 14:00:022024-12-16 15:52:02December 16, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 13, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 13, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE AI TRAIN KEEPS CHUGGING)
(DELL), (AAPL), (NVDA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-13 14:04:552024-12-13 15:31:41December 13, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The AI Train Keeps Chugging

Tech Letter

If anyone needs another AI data point, the tech market just delivered us a juicy one with an outstanding earnings call with Broadcom (AVGO) and its CEO Hock Tan.

The AI enterprise build-out has been developing in full-force and investors are pouring money into the foundation of the AI future.

That is currently where the AI profits currently lie.

The software companies have missed out on that profit in the short-term, but since many are also involved in the AI infrastructure spend, they can turn to their investors and ask for a mark-up in owned shares.

This won’t always be the case, and I do believe we are fast reaching an inflection point where shareholders will demand more from their capital and not just more AI data centers and more modern AI semiconductor chips.

I am talking about meaningful revenue growth directly tied to AI spend – we don’t have that yet. 

At some point, there needs to be an application from all of this money spent and return on capital.

In the meantime, Mr. Market is cheering the success of AVGO and the stock is up 25% today at the time of this writing signaling investors will continue to back this AI infrastructure spend into 2025 and possibly beyond.

Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said the company expects its custom AI chips will generate between $60 billion and $90 billion in revenue over the next three years from its three existing hyperscaler customers, whom the company did not name. Tan reiterated his belief that each of the three hyperscalers will deploy 1 million clusters of its custom AI chips called XPUs by 2025.

Apple is reportedly working with Broadcom to develop an AI server chip. The move by tech giants to make their own server chips is meant to cut costs and scale back their reliance on Nvidia’s (NVDA) GPUs (graphics processing units).

That trend is reflected in the industry at large. The AI chip market is set to grow 74% in 2025, while the semiconductor market overall is projected to grow just 12% next year.

We are seeing this type of binary divergence in tech firms like Dell and Oracle.

Many of these legacy tech companies are attempting to wean themselves from a legacy business that is expanding in the low single digits.

From a technical perspective, any dip to the $200 level will be a strong buy for AVGO.

I believe they continue to pivot into the AI infrastructure build while partnering with companies that can aid this type of success.

They will continue to invest in products related to AI, mainly chips, which will be installed in a wide array of businesses like data centers, consumer electronics like smartphones and laptops, and electric vehicles.

AVGO has been a hot company for quite a while, and even though not quite an Nvidia, I do believe AVGO stock is a solid backup option for tech investors looking for some diversification.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-13 14:02:062024-12-13 15:31:28The AI Train Keeps Chugging
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 13, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur.” – Said Elon Musk

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Elon.png 306 226 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-13 14:00:042024-12-13 15:31:15December 13, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 11, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 11, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(OPTIMISTIC FUTURE FOR GOOGLE)
(GOOGL), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-11 14:04:012024-12-12 11:25:41December 11, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Optimistic Future For Google

Tech Letter

It isn’t a surprise that the Department of Justice is going after Google (GOOGL) to divest its Chrome browser following a ruling in August that the company holds a monopoly in the search market.

I don’t believe this will tank the cash cow business of Google Search, and let’s not forget the most likely outcome is that Chrome is retained as a division of Google.

At worst, if it does get divested, the appeal process takes many years. 

Although I do believe it will become harder for Google Search to track and monitor user behavior without Google Chrome, this is by no means a deal breaker.

Plenty of traffic comes from completely different operating systems like Apple (AAPL) iOS that don’t employ the Chrome browser.

In fact, spinning out its browser would result in a massive windfall because the current setup hides the aggregate value and synergies within a larger corporation.

Once Google Chrome is spun out, animal spirits could take hold, and the value could skyrocket.

Google will naturally profit from this as well.

Chrome, which Google launched in 2008, provides the search giant with data it then uses for targeting ads. The DOJ said in a filing that forcing the company to get rid of Chrome would create a more equal playing field for search.

The DOJ said that Google will be prevented from entering into exclusionary agreements with third parties like Apple and Samsung. The department also said that Google be prohibited from giving its search service preference within its other products.

Search advertising accounted for $49.4 billion in revenue, representing three-quarters of total ad sales in the most recent period.

The DOJ’s request represents the agency’s most aggressive attempt to break up a tech company since its antitrust case against Microsoft, which reached a settlement in 2001.

In August, a federal judge ruled that Google holds a monopoly in the search market.

Also, the DOJ suggested limiting or prohibiting default agreements and “other revenue-sharing arrangements related to search and search-related products.”

The most likely outcome is that Google will be legally forced to do away with certain exclusive agreements, like its deal with Apple. I also don’t believe that Google will be forced to divest from the Android operating system, and the chances of that happening are almost zero.

Even without an exclusivity agreement, most Apple users use Google Chrome because it is still the most useful search engine.

Will that be the case in the future?

With AI changing business models left and right, it is hard to say, but in the interim, it is hard to believe that a lack of exclusivity agreement will cause any meaningful change to the bottom or top line in the next few years.

Breaking up parts of Google would result in a massive windfall for shareholders, strengthen the tech ecosystem, and make Google and its spinoff entities more competitive.

However, high-up executives are wary about voluntarily dumping revenue from the mothership because it hurts negotiating leverage when agreeing on future compensation, and that is what usually standalone corporate executives care about.

I believe spinning out some of these businesses, like Waymo, Google devices, Google Maps, and YouTube, would be great for America and give an opportunity for investors to jump into great tech companies before they skyrocket.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-11 14:02:002024-12-12 11:25:25Optimistic Future For Google
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 11, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“You want to be the pebble in the pond that creates the ripple for change.” – Said CEO of Apple Tim Cook

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/tim-cook.png 450 374 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-12-11 14:00:122024-12-12 11:24:49December 11, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 9, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 9, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(CHINA AND NVIDIA AT LOGGERHEADS)
($COMPQ), (NVDA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-09 14:04:372024-12-09 16:27:26December 9, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

China And Nvidia At Loggerheads

Tech Letter

Claiming Nvidia (NVDA) is stunting competition is just the beginning of the end as the tech war between China and the United States heats up again as we get prepared for a new administration to take over the White House.

This appears like a strategic shot across the bow and instead of just talking tough, China is throwing up a pre-emptive attack to counter whatever is in store for them past 2024.

Technology has been a national issue for some time and the follow through has been quite robust as China has bulldozed their way to corner the EV market with national champion BYD.

China is doing well in tech, but understands their tech sector cannot co-exist with Silicon Valley in the long term.

The probe is aimed at Nvidia's practices regarding possible anti-monopoly violations. It is also set to examine its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox, a purchase that was approved by China's State Administration for Market Regulation under the condition that the chipmaker would avoid discriminating against Chinese companies.

According to a Chinese media report, the government believes Nvidia’s $7 billion purchase of the Israeli computer networking equipment maker may have violated Beijing's anti-monopoly rules.

The U.S. has amped up restrictions on chip sales to China in recent years, barring Nvidia and other key semiconductor manufacturers from selling their most-advanced artificial intelligence chips in an effort to limit China from strengthening its military. The company has worked to create new products to sell in China that abide by the U.S. regulations.

I remember the golden years in China where growth was unwavering and every recent American college graduate would jump at the chance to make a career in China.

China, along with many other rich Western countries, have hit a wall with growth models that are delivering diminishing returns.

Asia is struggling and there is no other way to describe it.

The United States continues to power through with the top income bracket and enterprise money propping up the rest of the market and minting millionaires through higher tech stocks.

Nvidia is the jewel of America’s recent success and they promise to bolster Americas claim as the flag bearer of the AI movement. The loser would be zero sum and that loser would be China.

Threatening the best in show of American tech is a bold move by China and it smells of desperation.

There have been whispers of a major currency devaluation to the Chinese yuan in the pipeline which would hurt the economy similar to how the Japanese yen crash has crippled the Japanese.

Then, over the weekend, Syria being overthrown and Russia being able to pull back resources indicates that Russia plans to wind down its operation in Eastern Europe and America could set the stage for conflict in China.

Pulling military resources in Eastern Europe and allocating it further east to China would make sense since the upcoming administration views China as a bigger threat than Russia.

China’s political move to name Nvidia as anti-competitive could be the new beginning of a nasty pernicious relationship for the next 4 years between the 2 governments.

What does that mean for tech stocks?

Buy the dip in Nvidia on news like this.

Stepping back and looking at the Nasdaq ($COMPQ), this won’t take down the index.

Nvidia shares grew around 200% in 2024 and although I don’t expect a repeat performance in 2025, capital is pouring in from the sidelines from abroad and at home.

One thing I can tell you is that money from nowhere is pouring into China, especially the foreign type, because the hostile government means investing there is impossible and idiotic for outsiders.

I am bearish China’s economy and optimistic that U.S. tech stocks can muscle through the China headwinds.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-09 14:02:082024-12-09 16:26:28China And Nvidia At Loggerheads
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 6, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 6, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(A SHORT TERM TRADE)
(UBER), (GOOGL), (TSLA), (WRD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-06 14:04:092024-12-06 16:27:45December 6, 2024
Page 16 of 314«‹1415161718›»

tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with Mad Hedge Fund Trader (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade and/or any of its affiliated companies. Neither tastytrade nor any of its affiliated companies is responsible for the privacy practices of Marketing Agent or this website. tastytrade does not warrant the accuracy or content of the products or services offered by Marketing Agent or this website. Marketing Agent is independent and is not an affiliate of tastytrade. 

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2025. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • FAQ
Scroll to top