• support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • Home
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Us
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Are Big Tech Stocks Irrational?

Tech Letter

It’s no joke – we are in the nosebleed section with tech stocks here.

But that doesn’t mean there is no more room to run.

Euphoria can continue until it doesn’t, and that’s where we are right now in the Nasdaq as we close in on 14,000 points.

If we take a minute to understand the different opinions out there, overall, people think tech isn’t cheap right now and rightly so.

Out of all assets, bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks are considered in bubble territory right now.

A survey contributed by market professionals in late January found that 89% of professionals believe we are in a bubble.

In the bubble, bitcoin is the posterchild of bubble activity.

The next so-called bubble poster child is big cap U.S. tech stocks.

Hard not to say no when the likes of fintech giants PayPal (PYPL) are up 25% YTD.

Another name that has seen insatiable appreciation in underlying shares is electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla (TSLA) peaking at $880 and consolidating back to $790 today.

Tesla, meanwhile, also saw a massive climb in its share price in 2020 and that has extended into the new year.

CEO Elon Musk was crowned the world’s richest person.

The stock is up more than 700% year over year.

It is not exactly certain what might take down these robust names.  

The number of tailwinds is still plentiful.

Loose monetary situations supportive of bubbles will stick around with the public health situation lingering for longer than first anticipated.

The health dilemma is highly likely to spill over into 2022 at this point.

More investors say the rollout of vaccines deployment is failing (41%) than those who said it’s been better than expected (22%).

Only half of those surveyed see normality returning by December.

Then checking in with the latest from a big American investment bank validated these survey numbers with massive in-flow of equity capital.

Brokers have been busy and rightly so as equities have been frontpage news lately with speculative mania reaching fever pitch.

A record net 25% of investors surveyed by the American investment bank this month are taking higher-than-normal risks.

Cash levels slumped to the lowest since 2013, while optimism on cyclical risk assets rose to the highest since 2011.

The yields out there have never been lower and bearing more risk is required to produce the same number of gains.

Unrivaled optimism has been percolating with 84% of fund managers expecting global corporate profits to improve over the next 12 months.

For the first time in a year, investors say companies should focus on spending rather than improving their balance sheets.

We are in the midst of going from balance sheet protection to really letting it loose with capital spending and the synergies that surround it.

Easy money and upcoming health solutions are fueling tech investors into reflation trades of all stripes but mostly trading that is hypertargeting towards the best of tech.

Even if a mini correction presented itself, the mentality of “buy the dip” has strengthened since last March and it will really take a mega black swan event to topple this momentum.

In short, the tech narrative is strengthening with not only the gold standard of tech monopolizing even more revenue, but the second tier is gaining ground in terms of percentage appreciation as well.

The secular trends that buttress tech have also fortified over the pandemic and no government, big or small, has proven a match for proper regulating big tech.

 

big tech stocks

 

big tech stocks

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fms-investors.png 450 752 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-19 14:02:162021-02-28 13:22:23Are Big Tech Stocks Irrational?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 19, 2021 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“The bulk of the story will be what happens next.” – Said Co-Founder of Microsoft Bill Gates when talking about the pandemic

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bill-gates-feb19.png 216 224 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-19 14:00:022021-02-19 18:32:34February 19, 2021 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 17, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 17, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE TECH COMPANY COZYING UP WITH THE WHITE HOUSE)
(PLTR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-17 15:04:322021-02-17 15:51:10February 17, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Tech Company Cozying Up with the White House

Tech Letter

I hate to be a cheerleader but that is what I am about to do for the secretive big-data firm Palantir, co-founded by billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel. 

With funding from the CIA’s non-profit venture capital arm In-Q-Tel, Palantir (PLTR) is named after mystical orbs in J.R.R. Tolkien’s “The Lord of the Rings” universe that can see both the past and present and allow users to communicate over vast distances.

To be concise, PLTR is the gold standard of data mining stocks and I urged readers to pile into this stock at $10.

That was then and this is now.

This stock is clearly a 10-bagger and after surging past $44 in January, the stock has consolidated to $28 today.

The fundamentals supporting this narrative is ironclad with the CIA delivering premium opportunity to accrue recurring government revenue.

We aren’t going into the semantics of how PLTR runs its business but in short, it basically provides customized software to clients analyzing large tranches of data for reasons ranging from finding suspected criminals to improving companies’ manufacturing capabilities.

The company acknowledges that government customers use its technology to kill people, so investors not comfortable with the deeper meaning behind the technology and revenue should steer away from this one and go with the softball versions of big tech.

Palantir gets both criticism and praise for the powerful nature of its data analytics software.

For example, critics allege Palantir's profiling tools used by intelligence and immigration agencies sometimes operate under a cloak of secrecy with zero oversight.

Palantir’s tools are not just for killing bad guys, they have also signed up companies from sectors that include healthcare, energy, and manufacturing.

Palantir has two main services that analyze data: Palantir Gotham and Palantir Foundry.

A customized option, Palantir Gotham is used by companies, government agencies, and law enforcement to combine information to decipher previously unseen patterns and identify relationships between sets of data ranging from social media posts and addresses to license plate numbers and personal relationships.

The algorithm then summarizes content together to make broader conclusions from the data.

Meanwhile, Foundry is a ready-made solution focusing on clients ranging from pharmaceutical and automotive businesses to aviation companies like Airbus and is meant to cut down on the costs associated with Gotham, such as the need for multiple on-site engineers.

Who is the CEO?

Alex Karp.

A graduate of Stanford Law School.

Karp has been explicit in his belief in the need for Silicon Valley companies to work with the U.S. government and law enforcement agencies precisely because they are American companies.

Palantir refers to effective applications of its software such as combatting Ponzi scheme conman Bernie Madoff to disaster recovery to thwarting cyberattacks and fighting child exploitation.

Not only that, Palantir’s software was deployed in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence in 2018 alongside Team Rubicon, an organization of military veterans that responds to disaster areas. With Palantir’s Gotham Operations module, the group identified and responded to neighborhoods in the greatest need of assistance.

How does the software directly help real-time U.S. soldiers in the field?

Its software helped the U.S. military track insurgents in Afghanistan planting improvised explosive devices (IEDs) by finding correlations between weather patterns, command wire IED attacks, and biometric information found on explosive devices.

Palantir has also sold its software to the Salt Lake City Police Department, helping officers reduce the time it takes to perform complex investigations by 95%.

Granted, this tech company is not for everyone, which is why many global brands such as Hershey’s, Coca-Cola, Home Depot, and American Express have terminated relationships.

In the short term, PLTR blistering rally will face an expiration of a lockup that allows 80% of total shares to be sold which could unleash a wave of selling from insiders tempted to cash in their shares.

The company’s market valuation at 39 times 2021 sales estimates implies revenue growth well in excess of 40%, at this pricy level, it makes PLTR an easy sell the news victim.

PLTR has tanked for two consecutive weeks and shares are down 18% from a record high late last month.

The overheating of shares has come back to reality with a tepid annual sales growth forecast of at least 30%. That suggests a significant slowdown from last year.

By comparison, sales growth in 2020 reached 47%, even surpassing $1.1 billion.

The silver lining is that government sales jumped 85% reassuring investors that the quality of sales could not be higher.

The company insiders have waited years to unload shares, and if there is a significant dip, I would put money to work in PLTR.

Shares are going to $100 and readers should ride the ladder up with them.

pltr

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-17 15:02:512021-02-19 14:42:30The Tech Company Cozying Up with the White House
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 17, 2021 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Failure is not an option here. If things are failing, you are not innovating enough.”- Said Founder and CEO of Tesla Elon Musk

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/elon-musk.png 332 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-17 15:00:092021-02-17 15:49:30February 17, 2021 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 12, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 10, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(UBER GETS ANOTHER MULLIGAN)
(UBER)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-12 13:04:372021-02-12 14:12:30February 12, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Uber Gets Another Mulligan

Tech Letter

Great news for tech investors – Uber (UBER) is getting a pass on its almost historic loss-making 2020!

A highly bullish indicator is the broader tech market able to absorb an almost $7 billion annual loss with ease.

This all bodes well for the health of the tech market in 2021 – we should finish this year clearly higher than we are now today albeit with no black swans.

The tech market is iron clad right now with multiple external forces pushing up multiples to historic levels.

Imagine there are copious amounts of better tech companies out there that are actually turning a profit and are even at the vanguard of all the latest tech trends, and Uber definitely isn’t one of them.

Yet, I believe Uber shares will roar higher!

A Nasdaq index brimming with liquidity is the one way to explain this phenomenon because the bar has been set so low for tech companies to jump over that unless there is a bankruptcy or systemic risk, shares will rip higher.

Remove the liquidity subsidy and Uber shares would be headed into the gutter in a flinch.

But here we sit with tech shares going parabolic after a robust breakout.

If this carries on, we will see more abnormal side-effects and I believe the GameStop phenomenon was precisely the precursor to much weirder activity that is about to happen.

I must divulge that part of the narrative driving firms like Uber is the re-opening theme of increased consumer behavior if the population is theoretically inoculated driving a surge in economic activity.

The boom in outdoor consumerism would catapult Uber’s loss-making ride share division which performed poorly grossing only $6.79 billion, down 50% from a year ago.

As many might have guessed, Uber’s pitiful performance in ridesharing in a pandemic was met conversely by heightened food delivery gross volume of $10.05 billion, up 130% from a year ago.

What does this mean?

Uber is turning into a loss-making food deliverer from a loss-making ridesharing company and are still losing vast sums of money.

Their strategy of acquiring other food deliverers like alcohol delivery app Drizly for a deal valued at $1.1 billion in stock and cash combined will scale well and offer cost savings but is no panacea.

They also sealed a deal for a $2.65 billion acquisition of delivery service competitor Postmates in December to help build out its delivery capabilities.

However, where is the light at the end of the tunnel?

Where is that iPhone or YouTube – that game-changing asset?

There is no growth asset here and I still see no proprietary technology other than an app that matches drivers to passengers and a food delivery app that gets a car to its hungry customers.

To Uber’s credit, they revealed 20% improvement in net losses amounting to $6.77 billion, from a jaw-dropping $8.51 billion loss in 2019, and I will agree there is headway to make with such lousy numbers.

As long as Uber is afforded such a long leash and incentivized to perform badly, they can incrementally reign in the net losses and still claim victory.

But I scratch my head thinking how they will finally overcome that “last mile” problem of making this company a true tech giant and not one just brandishing below-average intellectual property and partying for losses that aren’t as bad as expected type of model.

At the end of the day, we can only trade the market we have, and not the one we want.

The broader tech market has given its implicit nod to Uber and this company remains an attractive buy on the dip tech growth company even though I listed a myriad of risks and concerns about its underlying model.

 

uber

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-12 13:02:532021-02-14 15:38:57Uber Gets Another Mulligan
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 12, 2021 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“My goal was never to make Facebook cool. I am not a cool person.” – Said Co-Founder and CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mark-zuckerberg.png 462 386 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-12 13:00:452021-02-12 14:11:02February 12, 2021 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 10, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 10, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE CORPORATIZATION OF BITCOIN)
(TSLA), (BTC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-10 12:04:252021-02-10 13:12:39February 10, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Corporatization of Bitcoin

Tech Letter

Bitcoin (BTC) is going corporate and that is great for the digital currency and the stock market.

That is the big takeaway from Tesla (TSLA) investing $1.5 billion into the cryptocurrency and announcing that Tesla lovers will be able to buy the car with the digital gold.

Hard to believe that Bitcoin has come so far so fast, but with governments doing their best to cultivate fiscal distrust along with a pandemic driving the entire global business world to the internet, Bitcoin is well placed to reap the benefits just like digital cloud companies.

The big question is what is next for the computer gold?

This could open the floodgates for the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google, and Amazon to join the bitcoin party by making their own investments into the industry.

This could come in the form of just dipping their toe by holding bitcoin reserves or buying a fintech company that facilitates the operations of it.

Have you noticed that as of late, fintech companies like PayPal and Square have broken out to the upside representing a proxy of bitcoin exuberance?

No doubt some of the established tech titans are taking note of Elon Musk’s plunge into the digital unknown, but it does send the message the next leg up in tech development is via bitcoin and the synergies surrounding it.  

Apple was the one that, out of thin air, brought us the iPod and iPhone which spawned a million copycats from China and a tsunami of capital that came along with it.

It’s undeniable that bitcoin is picking up traction with recent news in October 2020 that Square invested $50 million into Bitcoin.

That was about 1% of the company’s total assets at the end of Q2 2020.

That move came after the Cash app had offered the ability to buy Bitcoin for several years.

2020 also saw more traditional veteran investors like Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones become Bitcoin promoters.

Long-term investment analysts have determined that today, bitcoin gives corporations a foothold into the future while operating in the real world.

Asset preservation is also another phenomenon where many insiders believe that the value of the dollar is in slow decline which could hurt U.S. corporation’s ability to compete globally.

Bitcoin bulls believe more institutional investments will lead to more stability and naturally, increased value and I agree that is exactly what is happening no matter if Warren Buffet and his sort go on air to proclaim the asset is snake oil.

It’s getting to the point where large companies cannot deny the potential upside to bitcoin because of fear of missing out.

They do not want to be the new Blackberry to the Apple’s iPhone.

Then is the brute fact that the aforementioned tech giants have the resources to take the jump.

Ark Investments sees Bitcoin growing to $70,000 per coin if US companies put 1% into it, and $400,000 a coin if companies put 10% into the cryptocurrency.

If bitcoin finally becomes convertible globally, US companies will be tearing their hair out because they missed the chance to get in at a cheaper price.

What I just said would be absolutely bonkers in the financial world before the pandemic, but that shows how much the narrative has moved along and there are even more outlandish analysts who believe the likes of Apple and Amazon should move 50% of total assets into bitcoin.

Apple does have Apple Pay which they could integrate with the digital currency much like Square and PayPal have done.

If Tesla invested 1% of total assets into bitcoin and if a solid case nudging other companies to outdo this 1% and go to 2-3% comes to realization even if it’s a speculative bet on the future appreciation of the asset, it could be a moneymaker.

A company like Apple currently has $207 billion and so the pieces are on the board to make a bold move if they are willing to do so.

If we stand back and look at the bigger picture, US companies will undoubtedly lead the digital currency revolution for the next 25 years.

Europe is too regulated for their companies to jump in and Chinese authorities will stop companies like Alibaba hoping to operate in a currency that isn’t the Renminbi.

Like US companies created the cloud, internet, personal computer, and so on, they are on the cusp of making the bitcoin industry their own.

Another strong aspect I love is that Elon Musk clearly felt comfortable with the bitcoin’s foundational security, infrastructure and mechanisms in place in 2021 to facilitate this deal.

I am convinced that he had his best developers go into the meat and bones of the technology to find any structural flaws or lack of them.

Remember that bitcoin has been dogged by security breaches and hackers.

There is so much to love about this move and long term, bitcoin will hit $100,000.

bitcoin

 

bitcoin

 

bitcoin

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/investment-impact.png 616 820 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-10 12:02:442021-02-14 15:16:49The Corporatization of Bitcoin
Page 170 of 314«‹168169170171172›»

tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with Mad Hedge Fund Trader (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade and/or any of its affiliated companies. Neither tastytrade nor any of its affiliated companies is responsible for the privacy practices of Marketing Agent or this website. tastytrade does not warrant the accuracy or content of the products or services offered by Marketing Agent or this website. Marketing Agent is independent and is not an affiliate of tastytrade. 

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2025. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • FAQ
Scroll to top