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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Accounting Standards Could Take Down Supermicro

Tech Letter

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has some dubious management and accounting methods and it is coming back to haunt them with the potential boot from the Nasdaq index.

In fact, they are really cutting it close to secure their existence inside the index, because they haven’t offered any clear updates yet.

It is hard to believe they have loitered around not making any decisions to replace their accounting firm.

The optics is terrible because it appears as if no reputable accounting firm is willing to take their account.

There is fudging the numbers and then there is outright fraud and the situation at SMCI suggest the latter.

Remember, the world is still waiting to hear when SMCI will file their 2024 year-end report with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and why it was late.

That report is something many expected would be filed alongside the company’s June fourth-quarter earnings but was not. 

The company’s auditor, Ernst & Young, stepped down in October, and Super Micro said last week that it was still trying to find a new one.

A public tech company that can’t find an auditor, because their accounting practices are so toxic, nobody wants to touch it with a 10-foot pole.

Even though the company sells a great chip wanted by many other companies, the stock has crashed by almost 90%.

Getting delisted from the Nasdaq could be next if Super Micro doesn’t file a compliance plan by the Monday deadline or if the exchange rejects the company’s submission. Super Micro could also get an extension from the Nasdaq, giving it months to come into compliance. The company said Thursday that it would provide a plan to the Nasdaq in time.

The Nasdaq says it looks at several factors when evaluating a plan of compliance, including the reasons for the late filing, upcoming corporate events, the overall financial status of the company and the likelihood of a company filing an audited report within 180 days. The review can also look at information provided by outside auditors, the SEC or other regulators.

Between 2015 and 2017, Super Micro misstated financials and published key filings late, according to the SEC. It was delisted from the Nasdaq in 2017 and was relisted two years later.

In the short term, the bigger worry for Super Micro is whether customers and suppliers start to bail.

It’s hard to crash a stock when sales more than doubled last year to nearly $15 billion and many analysts believe they can do $25 billion in sales in 2025.

The mismanagement is on an extreme level here to the point where if you buy stock in this company, they might be delisted and it will be hard to get a refund on that stock.

Then there is the real hit to the reputation because vendors must think that if SMCI’s accounting practices are so bad, then what perhaps customers should be worried about the chip products too.

Where there is smoke – there is fire.

It’s nothing good for SMCI and the optics keep going from bad to worse.

Luckily, Nvidia has said that doesn’t really affect them and so any sort of contagion risk is confined.

The trading around the chip stocks have been incredibly volatile with the surge after the election then the profit taking this week.

Chip stocks would be a great buy the dip coming up.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-15 14:02:222024-11-15 16:28:10Accounting Standards Could Take Down Supermicro
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 15, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“When we launch a product, we're already working on the next one. And possibly even the next, next one.” – Said Current CEO of Apple Tim Cook

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/tim-cook.png 450 374 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-11-15 14:00:552024-11-15 16:27:24November 15, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 13, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 13, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(HANG ON TO THE A.I. STORY WITH META)
(META), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-13 14:04:382024-11-13 16:20:48November 13, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Hang On To The A.I Story With Meta

Tech Letter

One of the reasons I believe this AI narrative will continue in the short-term is because cash cow tech firms like Meta (META) are pouring cash into AI infrastructure.

There is a lot we still don’t know about the direction of AI – the future is uncertain.

However, the one takeaway is that the AI infrastructure spend continues right now unabated, and we know that because Meta raised capital expenditures guidance for the 2024 fiscal year to between $38 billion and $40 billion, up from $37 billion to $40 billion previously.

They also expect capital expenditures to continue to grow significantly in 2025 due to an acceleration in infrastructure expenses.

Founder Mark Zuckerberg is desperate to not miss out on the “next big thing.” Remember, he whiffed big time at the smartphone, and he will never stop blaming himself for it. Apple has been a constant pain in the ass for his company because Meta still needs to go through Apple management and their app store to get their platform to users. They also changed the privacy settings, which were directly targeted at Meta.

Zuckerberg is also on record for saying that Meta would be twice as profitable if he could remove the costs of going through Apple.

Meta is still growing at 19% year over year, and that is quite impressive for a company this big.

The company reported 3.29 billion daily active people for the third quarter. That was up 5% year over year, and we can expect that percentage point to stick in the single digits.

Zuckerberg has been pointing to the company’s massive investments in artificial intelligence, which includes spending billions of dollars on Nvidia’s popular graphics processing units, as helping improve the company’s core online ad business in the aftermath of Apple’s 2021 iOS privacy update. The company has been improving upon and building more data centers to help provide the technology infrastructure needed for its AI strategy.

The company’s Reality Labs hardware unit posted an operating loss of $4.4 billion in the third quarter, which was less than analysts’ expectations of $4.68 billion.

Facebook Reality Labs is a research and business unit of Meta Platform that develops virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) products and technologies.

I do believe the jury is still out on the Facebook Google story. It is not a given that consumers will just adopt some ridiculously looking VR headset and venture off into daily life with that thing on. The over $4 billion of losses points to a challenging time to turn the VR business into something legitimate.

Apple has also had some issues with its VR headset as well.

In the short term, Meta is still highly profitable, and they roll these profits into trying out new businesses.

It only takes one new killer business for the stock to explode again, much like what happened when Zuckerberg doubled down in social media through the acquisition of Instagram.

Investors need to be patient and keep a hold of META stock as it grinds higher.

In the event the stock does experience a mild sell-off, I am certain dip buyers will come to the rescue because of the nature of the stock being high quality.

Although digital ads aren’t the growth engine it once was, they are giving time and money for META to find the next path forward. 99% of tech companies don’t have that luxury.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-13 14:02:402024-11-14 09:02:40Hang On To The A.I Story With Meta
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 13, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds aren’t in your favor.” – Said Tesla Founder Elon Musk

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Elon.png 306 226 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-13 14:00:082024-11-13 16:20:13November 13, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 11, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 11, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(SHORT TERM MOMENTUM BREATHES LIFE INTO TECH STOCKS)
($COMPQ), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-11 14:04:522024-11-11 16:09:46November 11, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Short Term Momentum Breathes Life Into Tech Stocks

Tech Letter

The post-election trade is absolute fire now, and readers need to pay attention.

Silicon Valley has delivered what could amount to the mother of tech rallies into the end of 2024.

Look at the examples that have turned heads.

Electric vehicle (EV) company Tesla stock has gone absolutely parabolic with Elon Musk securing deep influence in the U.S. government for the next 4 years.

Part of the rally is also due to the increase in scarcity value from his social media platform X, which body-slammed traditional media avenues and convinced 75 million U.S. citizens to vote.

Musk could be tasked with “making recommendations for drastic reforms” aimed at the efficiency and performance of “the entire federal government”, Trump has said. This could grant Musk huge power over the agencies that regulate his and other tech companies.

Musk could be in charge with regulating – Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon – which wield the data and processing power that shapes the social and economic lives of billions of people.

It was under Trump’s first presidency that the Justice Department began an investigation into Google, resulting in a case against the firm for suppressing competition.

Trump will probably take office with cases under way challenging the market power of several big tech firms, spearheaded by the anti-monopoly chair of the Federal Trade Commission, Lina Khan.

Many expect she will be fired. Yet Trump’s vice-president pick, JD Vance, has voiced support for aspects of her monopoly-busting approach.

Trump also thinks the tech giants give the US global clout at a time when AI is becoming a matter of national security.

“China is afraid of Google,” Trump said last month when he questioned whether a corporate split of Google could “destroy the company”.

Trump said he would “save TikTok” after a ruling that its Chinese owners must sell it if it is to continue in the US, but the trade-offs are everywhere.

In other areas, any Trump plan to cut incentives for EV manufacturers would be “an overall negative for the EV industry.

This would probably help Musk’s Tesla because its existing competitive advantage would be exaggerated if its rivals were hobbled. There are reports Trump may only tweak the subsidies rather than scrap them. If Trump’s trade tariffs limit imports of cheaper Chinese EVs, that would further help Musk.

Crypto-linked stocks in Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Riot Platforms, and MARA Holdings have jumped between 11% and 21%, participating in what is known as the post-election Trump trade.

I certainly expect a follow-through on the post-election trade, with money from the sidelines opting into the rally.

Not only that, retail traders have signaled they are participating in this broad rally as well.

The paradigm shift cannot be understated, and many changes will start to be visible as the new administration comes closer to taking over.

The high inflation of the last few years was painful for the bottom segment of the American population, and it will be interesting to see if the new government will discount them or start to redirect policy to them.

Either way, the more important policy decisions as it relates to big tech are regulation, corporate tax policy, tariffs, and the ease of doing business in the U.S.

Clearly, Trump has made it known he does value strong American tech companies, but I don’t believe they will be left untouched to do whatever they want.

In the short term, ride the rally to higher highs. Since the summer dip, I had a hunch that we would reverse to all-time high’s, and that is exactly where we find ourselves in the Nasdaq index.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-11 14:02:392024-11-11 16:08:36Short Term Momentum Breathes Life Into Tech Stocks
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 8, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 8, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(AIRBNB IS IN THE DOG HOUSE)
(ABNB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-08 14:04:072024-11-08 16:08:13November 8, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Airbnb Is In The Dog House

Tech Letter

Revenue increased 10% from $3.4 billion a year earlier, and that is where the problem lies for Airbnb (ABNB).

Growth rates of 10% are a problem in technology.

The mantra of scaling out and monetizing is all but expected for growing tech companies.

Something in the ballpark of 30% and higher is something that shareholders would prefer to see.

Just look at the top tech company right now, Nvidia and the breathtaking 126% revenue growth year over year is an example of what I am talking about.

A measly 10% won’t cut it, and it explains the hard sell-off in shares in the travel platform this morning.

It’s true that the company isn’t a cash burner, and the company noted a $2.8 billion tax benefit during the third quarter of 2023, but to really fetch that premium on the stock market, investors will need to see demonstrably higher growth rates and better profitability.

Average daily rates increased 1% from a year ago to $164 in the third quarter, signaling a cooling down of revenue opportunity.

If per-night revenue isn’t growing fast, then Airbnb will need to make that up on the volume.

This is starting to look and feel like a company that won’t be able to scale their product.

Remember that acquiring a listing on Airbnb is an intensive process for the property owner, and the 12% in commission Airbnb requires is probably at the upper limit of what they can ask.

Airbnb said adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $2 billion, up 7% year over year.

Gross booking value, used by Airbnb to track host earnings, service fees, cleaning fees, and taxes, totaled $20.1 billion in the third quarter. The company reported 123 million nights and experiences booked, up 8% from a year ago.

Airbnb said it saw hosting growth across all regions and market types during the third quarter. The company said in its shareholder letter that it has more than 8 million active listings and has worked to improve listing quality. Airbnb has removed more than 300,000 listings since last year.

In 2021, the stock was priced at over $200, and fast forward to today, it is languishing at $135 after another 8% selloff.

Even more prevalent, the stock has also been punished as non-AI stocks and AI stocks have bifurcated into two separate paths.

Airbnb has been talking up getting into other businesses like experiences, and I don’t believe that will move the needle in terms of revenue growth.

Property management is another sub-sector they are talking about to expand, but again, I don’t see that as a solution, and that type of work is incredibly labor intensive, which tech companies should stay away from.

At a time when tech companies are looking to automate to look to go on auto-pilot, Airbnb is going the other way and will need more human labor.

Labor costs have been trending higher, and property management will never be an industry where a tech company can just substitute with an algorithm.

Many of times, when tech and real estate intertwine, the Frankenstein company loses its way and doesn’t succeed.

Airbnb will just need to settle for a lower premium than most other tech stocks. I would stay away from this stock for now and head to higher ground to ride the bandwagon of AI.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-08 14:02:222024-11-08 16:08:01Airbnb Is In The Dog House
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 6, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 6, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(TECH STOCKS POISED TO MOVE UP)
($COMPQ), (PLTR), (MSFT), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (INTC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-06 14:04:492024-11-06 16:32:57November 6, 2024
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