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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Modern Age Tech Force Multiplier

Tech Letter

In a blink of an eye – I missed my entry point again!

The earnings report gave us mixed messages, but the weakness in shares will naturally be short-lived.

Sometimes, people really forget to understand how powerful and dominant Google (GOOGL) really is.

As the stock kept running away from me and the math looked less and less appetizing, I decided to wait for the next go-around to execute a call spread on Google.

Even though sometimes Google gets slapped on the wrist for some minor blemishes on its earnings report, this time around they gave us new revenue disclosures and higher-than-expected share buybacks.

The stock cratered 2.82% to $1,440 a share in early trading last Tuesday but is still up around 25% year-over-year.

Google’s earnings per share of $15.35 was more than enough to beat expectations, but revenue was $46.08 billion, missing expectations of $46.94 billion.

Google's operating margin of 20% missed by 1%.

Google has been notoriously private about their revenue hoard but they did chime in with some more color when Google's CFO Ruth Porat, said, "to provide further insight into our business and the opportunities ahead, we’re now disclosing our revenue on a more granular basis, including for Search, YouTube ads and Cloud."

Google is still and will be at the forefront of any technological innovation of this generation buttressed by a staunch digital ad business to fund anything they want to do.

I looked into buying a call spread last Tuesday and the stock took off like a scalded chimp muddying option prices.

My big-picture thesis is unchanged, and I tell anyone and everyone in the aisles of Whole Foods to buy Google on any short-term weakness.

It’s uncanny ability to drive engagement and monetization across its 9 products with 1 billion plus users is a rare phenomenon.

Even though the law of large numbers creeps up to hurt the company, it still has strong engagement, advertiser value, and monetization possibilities.

Disclosure will give investors a more transparent way to calculate the monetization engines like Maps, Discover, and e-commerce suite of products.

What did we find out?

YouTube did $15 billion of revenue in 2019.

Google Cloud does $9 billion of annual revenue growing 50% year-over-year.

Google’s cloud business is practically the same size as Amazon Web Services (AWS) in 2016, but expanding slower than AWS did at that time.

The company has such a strong balance sheet that share repurchases were higher than expected at $6.1 billion vs. $4.0 billion.

Another sore point would be that headcount and capex in data centers, servers continue to be on the high side.

Google revealing numbers for YouTube and cloud for the first time is clearly because they felt comfortable in doing so.

I believe that they will start disclosing more detail going forward especially as the cloud division continues to ramp up and contribute meaningfully to its earnings.

And remember that it was only in July that Google said its cloud unit had just reached $8 billion in annualized revenue and planned to triple its sales force over the next few years.

Combined with installing Sundar Pichai as the new Alphabet CEO, this is a conscious move to provide more transparency to put its revenue drivers in the shop window.

Former Alphabet CEO and Google founder Larry Page and co-founder Sergey Brin stepped down from the positions last December, leaving Pichai as the big boss with power to make all game-changing decisions.

The aforementioned two still retain voting shares in the company.

The last talking point is that Google has been under intense scrutiny by federal and state regulators hoping to prove anti-competitive behavior.

A collection of 50 attorney generals from different states are investigating Google’s ad business.

But many experts believe that Google has a good chance of winning or stalling the feds, yet, the most likely outcome is that Google will be able to keep its business model but pay another massive fine which is a net positive.

Basically, Google’s narrative is intact, and any selling should be met by a wave of buying.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-10 09:02:572020-05-11 13:12:31The Modern Age Tech Force Multiplier
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 10, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“If the Starbucks secret is a smile when you get your latte... ours is that the Web site adapts to the individual's taste.” – Said Founder and CEO of Netflix Reed Hastings

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/reed-hastings.png 345 318 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-10 09:00:382020-02-10 14:20:38February 10, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 7, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 7, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TWITTER’S GROWTH DOESN’T DISAPPOINT)
(TWTR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-07 10:04:282020-02-07 09:29:07February 7, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Twitter's Growth Doesn't Disappoint

Tech Letter

Twitter is one of my favorite 2nd tier tech stocks and readers should get into this name on any meaningful dip.

Ironically, “growth” still matters for this company, but it is also profitable which partly offsets investor’s lust for pure user growth.

Remember in the Pre-WeWork apocalypse era, every tech firm was expected to grow irrespective of whether the growth was quality or septic.

Well, Twitter’s financials make sense in many ways and they also benefit from scarcity value.

There is simply no other company that does what Twitter does.

The company has also cleaned up its userbase purging the toxic elements that roil the good spirit of network communication and the trust in the platform, but this could still be improved on.

Nefarious chatbots, fake accounts, deep fakes, and bad actors are actively banished from the platform, and I can confirm that Twitter does a lot more than Facebook on this front.

Buttressed by a string of continuous profitable quarters, Twitter celebrated its best user growth quarter ever.

Even though they fell short on earnings per share, shares were up a Himalayan 17% intraday.

EPS was slightly lower than expected by 4 cents but the 25 cents per share is not the end of the world because Twitter’s mojo doesn’t come in the form of profits.

A more critical milestone was overall top line revenue that saw Twitter finally surpass the $1 billion mark at $1.01 billion vs. $996.7 million expected.

Twitter is finally becoming a big company and will benefit from the network effects and advantages offered to these precious few.

The highlight of the report was easily the Monetizable Daily Active Users (mDAUs) of 152 million which was 5 million more than expected.

The 21% mDAUs expansion is the number that shines brightest and it’s only the third time Twitter has reported mDAUs alone, rather the industry-standard monthly active users (MAUs) it previously reported.

Twitter certainly is still in hyper-growth mode as the company announced plans to build a new data center and add headcount by 20% during the year, which would be about 960 employees on top of the 4,800 it employed by the end of 2019.

Twitter CFO Ned Segal said, “When you add 26 million people to the service when more than half of it is tied directly to product improvements, you build a confidence to continue to execute against your strategy and the execution we’ve been able to deliver over the last few years.”

CEO of Twitter Jack Dorsey plans to work remotely later this year; addressed his previously announced plans to move to Africa for up to six months while running the business, he said he test ran a heavy travel schedule last year and management was able to keep up with the work.

Twitter dropped 20% on the last earnings report due to issues with its Mobile Application Promotion (MAP) product that damaged its ability to target ads and share measurement data with partners, but the bleed-over effect has been largely dealt with.

The technical issue resulted in a short-term 4% revenue drop and guidance won’t be affected moving forward.

Twitter will also carry out an ad server revamp in the first half of 2020 because advertiser sentiment remains strong.

Total ad engagements grew 29% in the quarter driven by improved clickthrough rates and increased impressions due to audience growth.

Cost per engagement fell 13% because of the shift to video ad formats.

Twitter continued to take the moral high road by eliminating political ads because management said it would not be “credible” for Twitter to convince users it’s committed to preventing the spread of misinformation while allowing advertisers to pay the company to target users with political ads.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-07 10:02:272020-05-11 13:12:13Twitter's Growth Doesn't Disappoint
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 7, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Your most unhappy customers are your greatest source of learning.” – Said Co-Founder of Microsoft Bill Gates

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/bill-gates-2.png 264 304 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-07 10:00:232020-02-07 09:35:21February 7, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 5, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 5, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO TRADE THE CORONAVIRUS)
(APPL), (MSFT), (TSLA), (MU), (WDC), (ZM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-05 10:04:592020-02-05 09:55:30February 5, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Trade the Coronavirus

Tech Letter

Like a powerful mule, I believe the American tech sector will muscle through the shock of the China coronavirus.

The tech sector will do what it does best, take the lead and put the entire American economy on its back and carry it through when doubts of decelerating global growth are asked of it.

I quantify this as an opportunity for the American tech sector.

Let’s look at some of the short-term contagion American tech companies are absorbing, as well as some opportunities in tech delivered by this sad pandemic.

Apple (AAPL) has made the decision to shutter all Apple stores in mainland China.

Their corporate offices have also gone into sleep mode and that means 10,000 people will need to make do with work stoppages which also include the component makers that supply Apple.

The stoppage is until February 9th, but only if the coronavirus has been effectively thwarted.

The Chinese populace isn’t willing to go out on the street and have barricaded themselves inside their apartments to avoid catching the virus.

Quarantining large areas is an unprecedented move from the Chinese communist party highlighting the poor handling of the situation in the early stages.

China is a critical revenue driver for Apple constituting 15% of revenue.

The delay in manufacturing will result in 3% of iPhone unit shipments being pushed out from March to June.

However, if the lockdown spills into late February or March, then there will be a major hit to the Chinese consumer which could muddy Apple’s bottom line.

Apple’s supply chain could get up-and-running if the shutdown lasts a few weeks but if we are talking months then project dates could get put on the permanent back burner.

Apple is arguably the most prominent American tech company to be affected deeply by the coronavirus but there are others.

The Chinese communist party has put the operation of the new Shanghai Tesla (TSLA) factory on ice which will delay the company’s production of the Model 3 there.

The ramp-up of the Model 3 production will be delayed by a week and a half and the shutdown may “slightly” impact the company’s profitability in the first quarter of 2020, said Tesla’s finance chief Zach Kirkhorn.

As of now Tesla has estimated a 10-day delay to the Shanghai-built Model 3s due to a government-required factory shutdown and the facility will remain locked until February 9th.

Tesla have been churning out cars at its Shanghai factory only since the end of 2019.

The deliveries are an emerging revenue driver as Tesla hopes to gain a foothold in China, the world’s largest market for electric vehicles.

Fortunately, Shanghai-produced Teslas only make up a tiny part of Tesla’s overall revenue, meaning there will be minimal impact to the financials.

The outbreak could have a positive effect for some domestic semiconductor companies.

The chaos resulting from the virus will likely upset operations at Wuhan-based Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. and Wuhan Xinxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., who have been stealing market share from their American competitors.

Yangtze Memory Technologies is China’s leading NAND flash memory producer.

NAND chips are the flash memory chips used in USB drives and smaller devices such as digital cameras as opposed to DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, the type of memory commonly used in PCs and servers.

Micron (MU) and Western Digital (WFC) could swoop in to meet the extra demand.

Another company that could seize a great opportunity because of the coronavirus is Zoom Video Communications (ZM).

The CEO of Zoom Video said, “If you cannot travel ... you need to have a very reliable secure tool like Zoom” and product usage “is very, very high since the last of the month, last week. Almost every day - that’s a record usage.”

Since Chinese tech workers are barricading themselves indoors, Zoom has been the tool of choice to collaborate with coworkers who are in the same situation.

Not that the video conferencing software company needed help, I have recommended this company as a solid buy and hold since the stock dipped to $62.

This new boost will pour gas on the flames and the stock price reacted in lockstep by rocketing 15% in just one trading day.

When the likes of Alphabet’s Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, and Ford Motor are ordered to work from home, videoconferencing, online meetings, chat and mobile collaboration services shoot through the roof.

Video conferencing will become a $43 billion total addressable market in the coming years, and I believe Zoom is easily a $150 stock.

In short, the coronavirus will hurt some tech companies short-term, benefits others, and have no effect on tech firms with negligible China exposure.

Facebook is a stock that I recently executed a call spread on, and they are blocked from operating in the mainland and will feel no difference from this virus outbreak.

Looking even deeper into the matter, the short-term hit to revenues will only be temporary unless this virus wipes out most of China.

The most likely scenario is that less than 1,000 people will eventually die from this and 99.9% of that will be deaths in mainland China.

Investors should look at buying on any substantial dip – the tech narrative is still unbroken.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/coronavirus.png 377 899 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-05 10:02:572020-05-11 13:12:07How to Trade the Coronavirus
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 5, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn't matter to me. Going to bed at night saying we've done something wonderful, that's what matters to me.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Jobs

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/steve-jobs.png 254 277 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-05 10:00:552020-02-05 09:54:34February 5, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 3, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 3, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CAN’T HOLD DOWN AMAZON)
(AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-03 10:04:062020-02-03 10:09:02February 3, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Can't Hold Down Amazon

Tech Letter

The recent Chinese pandemic over the coronavirus is overshadowing a sensational start to tech earnings.  

The big have only gotten bigger!

Apple, Microsoft, and now Amazon and Founder Jeff Bezos have clearly tweaked the business into a well-oiled machine. 

I won’t lie – expectations were a little shaky going into the earnings’ report because of expense worries on turning the 2-day free shipping for Amazon Prime members into a 1-day affair.

The narrative was whether Amazon could deliver enhancements that could overcome the high cost of making Amazon Prime better.

It’s not cheap to make the logistical improvements in the warehouses and transportation functions.

A lot of money has been poured into air cargo transport efficiency and last-mile developments as well.

Profitability was supposed to bear the brunt of the expense surge, but just take a peek at EPS performance of $6.47 per share vs. expectations of $4.03 per share, and rejoice in relief that expense worries were overblown.

The only conclusion that I can make is that the spoils from investments into logistics have outweighed the costs of the investments.

In total, revenue expanded 21% to $87.44 billion for the quarter which is a robust growth trajectory for a company as gargantuan as Amazon.

Amazon unleashed the head turner metric this time around too sharing that Amazon already has over 150 million Amazon Prime members.

That is almost the equivalent of half of the U.S. population paying Amazon $119 per year.

The higher logistic costs were deemed necessary to stay in front of the rest and expectedly ballooning costs showed up in the earnings report with shipping expenses up 43% year over year to $12.9 billion.

Other segments of the business have been just as prolific as Kansas City Chief’s quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Streaming and subscriptions pulled in a massive $5.24 billion for the quarter, up 32% from the year-ago period.

Amazon’s cloud business AWS was up 19% to almost $10 billion last quarter.

The 19% represents a significant slowdown from the 35% they grew during the 3rd quarter of last year but still brings in the lion's share of the profits.

Are there any other dark horse growth drivers in Amazon’s arsenal?

Certainly, Amazon’s advertising segment can be pigeonholed as the rising star and generated $4.8 billion in revenue during the quarter, a 41% increase from the year-ago period.

Amazon is also bullish on the Amazon’s “stores,” allowing the company to customize and curate a multipage digital storefront.

Stores are getting a refresh and the company has added features like shoppable images and the ability to schedule updates like new releases or seasonal changes.

Other advertising tools like the ability for brands to create posts, which consumers can view to discover products and brands through a curated feed, will help the company become an advertising juggernaut.

The company launched “Posts” in beta last year which shows that Amazon plans to double down in marketing.

The marketing space serves as a critical area for incremental growth potential and profitability flow-through.

This is because the marketing space is the largest and least penetrated total addressable market, ahead of retail, cloud, and business-to-business segments.

Amazon is a sure-fire buy and hold tech company because it simply is the second-best tech company behind Microsoft.

There will also be opportunities to trade this short-term from the long side, but the volatility might turn off some investors.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-03 10:02:032020-05-11 13:11:55Can't Hold Down Amazon
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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