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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 20, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 20, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MY CURRENT TECHNOLOGY TRADING STRATEGY),
(GOOGL), (MSFT), (APPL), (ADBE), (AKAM), (VEEV), (FTNT), (WKDAY), (TTD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-20 06:04:372019-11-20 05:52:22November 20, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

My Current Technology Trading Strategy

Tech Letter

Some might say that we were due for a revaluation of growth tech stocks.

They have contributed greatly in this nine-year bull market.

Profit-generating software stocks are the order of the day.

Tech has led the overall market higher after projected quarterly earnings growth of -9% came in better than expected at -5%.

We have ebbed and flowed from pricing in a full-out recession in mid-2020 to now believing a recession is further off than first thought.

The pendulum swing ruptured many growth stocks from Workday (WKDAY) to The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) plummeting 30%.

We have retraced some of those losses but momentum in share appreciation has shifted to the perceived safer variation of tech stocks.

Investors have cut volatility and headed into bulletproof companies of Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT).

These companies have significant competitive advantages, Teflon balance sheets, and print money.

The tech markets just about priced in the U.S - China trade war in the fall as broad-based volatility plummeted because of optimism around making a deal.

This, in turn, has boosted chips stocks along with investors front running the 5G revolution and the administration granting Huawei a reprieve was a cherry on top.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has taken every dip to initiate new longs in safe trades like software companies Adobe (ADBE) and Veeva Systems (VEEV).

Tech is at the point that all loss-making companies are out of the running for tech alerts because the moment there is a recession scare, these shares drop 10% and often don’t stop until they lose 30%.

Now there is a deeply embedded set of narrow tech leadership by a few dominant tech companies buttressed by a select set of second-tier software stocks.

I would put PayPal (PYPL) and Twitter (TWTR), which I currently have open trades on, in the ranks of the second tier and they should do well as long as economic growth does better than expected.

Their share prices dipped on weak guidance and the bad news appears to have been shaken out of these names.

Professional investors could also be hanging on to meet end-of-year performance targets.

I do expect unique entry points on software stocks that drop after bad future guidance.

Profitability has moved to the fore as the biggest factor in holding a name or not.

Newly minted IPOs have fared even worse showing the markets' waning appetite for loss makers like Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT).

Loss-making companies often tout their ability to change the world and disrupt industry, but that has been discovered as nothing more than a ruse.

They aren’t disrupting the way we change the world. For example, Uber is a dressed-up taxi service and the new CEO has failed to create any new momentum in the unit economics that spectacularly fail by any type of metric.

Even worse for these growth stocks, as the economy starts to falter, there will be even less appetite for them, and even more appetite for safer tech stocks.

A worst-case scenario would see Uber drop to $10 and Lyft to $20.

New all-time highs have crystalized with Google (GOOGL) under the gauntlet of regulation hysteria displaying the domination of these big tech machines.

The ongoing, consistent rotation out of growth and into value hasn’t run its course yet and fortunately, by identifying this important trend, our readers will be well placed to advantageously position themselves going into 2020.

Growth stocks won’t make a comeback anytime soon and deteriorating conditions could trigger renewed synchronized global monetary policy easing and central bank stimulus.

And yes, more negative rates.

I believe Oracle (ORCL), Fortinet (FTNT), Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) could weather the storm next year.

Tech growth is slowing and trade uncertainty is high, and readers must have a sense of urgency to avoid the losers in this scenario.

U.S. economic growth could slow to 1.3% next year, avoiding a recession, and the lack of enterprise spend will reduce software sales and combine that with peak smartphone growth and it won’t be smooth sailing.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has the pulse of the tech market and will show you how to navigate this minefield.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-20 06:02:532020-05-11 12:21:19My Current Technology Trading Strategy
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 20, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“The best customer service is if the customer doesn't need to call you, doesn't need to talk to you. It just works.” – Said Founder and CEO of Amazon Jeff Bezos

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/bezos.png 339 216 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-20 06:00:312019-11-20 06:03:54November 20, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 18, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 18, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE FANG’S BIG MOVE INTO BANKING),
(GOOGL), (MSFT), (APPL), (MA), (V), (PYPL), (SQ), (GS), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-18 05:34:092019-11-18 05:12:02November 18, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The FANG's Big Move Into Banking

Tech Letter

First, Apple (APPL) collaborates with Goldman Sachs’ (GS) offering of a credit card even giving credit access to subprime borrowers.

And now Google (GOOGL) has its eyes on the banking industry — specifically, it’ll soon offer checking accounts.

In a copycat league where anything and everything is fair game, we are seeing a huge influx of big tech companies vie for the digital wallets of Americans.

The project is aptly named Cache and accounts will be handled by Citibank (C) and a credit union at Stanford.

Google’s spokesman shared with us admitting that Google hopes to “partner deeply with banks and the financial system,” and further added, “If we can help more people do more stuff in a digital way online, it’s good for the internet and good for us.”

I would disagree with the marginal statement that it would be good for us.

Facebook (FB) is now offering a Pay option and how long will it be until Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and others throw their name into the banking mix.

I believe there will be some monumental failures because it appears that these tech companies won’t offer anything that current bank intuitions aren’t offering already.

Moving forward, the odd that digital banking products will become saturated quickly is high.

Let’s cut to the chase, this is a pure data grab, and not in the vein of offering innovative services that force the consumer down a revolutionary product experience.

As the consumer starts to smarten up, will they happily reveal every single data point possible to these tech companies?

Big tech continues to be adamant that personal data is secure with them, but their track records are pitiful.

Even if Google doesn’t sell “individual data”, there are easy workarounds by just slapping number tags on aggregated data, then aggregated data can be reverse-engineered by extracting specific data with number tags.

The cracks have already started to surface, Co-Founder of Apple Steve Wozniak has already claimed that the credit algorithm for Apple’s Goldman Sach’s credit card is sexist and flawed.

Time is ticking until the first mass data theft as well and let me add that the result of this is usually a slap on the wrist incentivizing bad behavior.

I believe big tech companies should be banned from issuing banking products.

Only 4% of consumers switched banks last year, and a 2017 survey by Bankrate shows that the average American adult keeps the same checking account for around 16 years.

As anti-trust regulation starts to gather more steam, I envision lawmakers snuffing out any and every attempt for big tech to diversify into fintech.

It’s fair to say that Google should have done this 10 years ago when the regulatory issues were nonexistent.

Now they have regulators breathing down their necks.

Let me remind readers that the reason why Facebook abandoned their digital currency Libra was because of the pressure lawmakers applied to every company interesting in working with Facebook’s Libra.

Lawmakers threatened Visa and Mastercard that they would investigate every part of their business, including the parts that have nothing to do with Facebook’s Libra, if they went ahead with the Libra project.

The most telling insight comes from the best tech company Microsoft who has raised the bar in terms of protecting their reputation on data and trust.

They decided to stay away from financial products like the black plague.  

Better to stay in their lane than take wild shots that incur unneeded high risks.

When U.S. Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat on the Senate panel that oversees banking, was asked about Google and banking, he quipped, “There ought to be very strict scrutiny.”

Big tech is now on the verge of getting ferociously regulated and that could turn out positive for the big American banks, PayPal (PYPL), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA) and Square (SQ).

I heavily doubt that Google will turn Cache into a meaningful business unless Google offers some jaw-dropping interest rates or elevated points to move the needle.

Google has canceled weekly all-hands meetings because of the tension between staff members and Facebook is also just as dysfunctional at the employee level.

Whoever said it's easy to manage a high-stake, too-big-to-fail tech firm?

Even with all the negativity, Google is still a cash cow and if regulatory headwinds are 2-3 years off, they are a buy and hold until they are not.

The recent tech rally, after the rotation to value, has seen investors flood into Apple, Microsoft, and Google as de-facto safe haven tech plays.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-18 05:32:312020-05-11 12:21:34The FANG's Big Move Into Banking
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 18, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I worry that if you regulate for the sake of regulating it, it has a lot of unintended consequences.” – Said CEO of Google Sundar Pichai

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/pichai.png 322 356 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-18 05:30:472019-11-18 05:11:20November 18, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 15, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 15, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HERE’S THE INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANY FOR EVERYTHING),
(CSCO), (MSFT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-15 11:04:042019-11-15 11:38:28November 15, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Here's the Infrastructure Company for Everything

Tech Letter

Cisco (CSCO) is an accurate proxy for global enterprise spending around the world.

This foundational company offers the base for software-reliant companies to flourish and tuning into their quarterly earnings report is a front-row affair.

Even though the firm beat on the bottom line, 2020 prospects dimmed substantially, enough to question whether the underpinnings of global growth remain in-tact.

Topline revenue beat as well with the company earning $13.16 billion in revenue eclipsing the estimated $13.09 billion.

But analysts and investors were mainly there to scrutinize the commentary on future earnings considering that 2020 is unfolding into the most uncertain year in recent history coincides with a potentially fractious U.S. presidential election.

The onus was on CEO Chuck Robbins to provide some comfort and that comfort was visibly lacking in his call.

The disappointment started with the commentary regarding annualized revenue growth.

Cisco expects annual revenue to slide between 3-5% next year.

Earlier this year, Robbins had revealed that the slowdown had been confined to smaller parts of the market but now it is suddenly expanding into almost all corners of the world.

The delay in IT spend has hit conversion rates which were lower than normal and large deals got done but in a smaller way.

Businesses have consciously chosen to elongate their refresh cycle and are defiantly sticking with the current IT technology to subdue costs.

Usually, new IT infrastructure begets more spending on newer software but that is all grinding down to a halt for the foreseeable future.

Cisco has a massive install base of users to grab data points from, and this should put some cold water on a narrowing tech rally.

Safe haven names have received the lion’s share of the tech rally momentum as of late.

The most suitable adjective to describe the current IT slowdown is “broad-based” and countries such as China are showing weak IT spend too.

China isn’t a huge customer for Cisco, and emerging markets have been exhibiting more weakness than the larger economies.

Cisco’s poor guidance dovetails nicely with my recent theme of a prolonged tech earnings recession laced with bad guidance.

The lamentable commentary about 2020 will persist in tech. 

I do view the more than 7% dive in Cisco’s shares today as a solid entry point into one of the premier tech infrastructure stocks in the world, but will let the market digest the results first.

Even though corporate America is heading toward a new valley in an earnings recession that could last the entire calendar year, Cisco will muscle its way through as higher-tech spend will at some point reshape the earnings outlook.

But don’t expect that for the next quarter or two.

Investors should expect more softness in tech shares and rerouting of capital into top-grade tech shares like Microsoft (MSFT).

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-15 11:02:182020-05-11 12:21:53Here's the Infrastructure Company for Everything
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 15, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“The business model of social media companies, of pure advertising, is problematic. It turns out the huge winner is low-quality content.”– Said Founder of Wikipedia Jimmy Wales

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/wales.png 350 249 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-15 11:00:222019-11-15 11:37:07November 15, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 13, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY YOUR NEXT TAXI RIDE COULD BE BY AIR),
(UBER), (TSLA), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-13 04:04:462019-11-15 11:44:39November 13, 2019
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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