“If you don't have a mobile strategy, you're in deep turd.” – Said CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 20, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WALMART’S DRAMATIC SAVE),
(WMT), (AMZN)
This is not your father’s Walmart (WMT).
Peel back a layer or two of that thin veneer and in Walmart, you have nothing closely resembling the Walmart you grew up with.
This would have been a coup de grâce for many companies facing the tsunami of tech strength crushing business models left and right.
Yet, Walmart has found a way to turn the tables and flourish when many industry experts thought this once legacy shopping business was careening towards extinction.
Walmart’s outstanding performance of growing e-commerce sales 43% YOY in the winter quarter of 2018 is a proclamation that they are here to stay through hell or high water and it’s the e-commerce segment leading the charge.
Betting the ranch on e-commerce has them inevitably on a collision course heading directly towards competitor Amazon (AMZN).
Instead of shriveling up and waving the white flag, Walmart’s President and CEO Doug McMillon is acutely aware that the overall pie is growing and there is room for more than just Amazon.
His company’s recent success echoes this trend of the overall marketing growing, and I believe passing the acid test of the 2018 winter shopping season is concrete evidence that Walmart has a prosperous future if they can navigate around four objectives.
First, triple-down on the e-commerce strategy which could translate into being a tad cavalier to operating margins.
This would take a machete to short-term profitability, but I believe Walmart investors are starting to believe in this tech pivot and further margin erosion can be stomached because they are currently conditioned for it.
To capture a larger footprint in the e-commerce market, data analytics specialists will need to be recruited in heavy numbers and convinced of the future vision of Walmart.
The turn of the calendar year means that end of the year bonuses are out and now is the time to capture the horde of tech talent sitting on the open market waiting to be put on Walmart’s books.
Walmart could potentially leap into position to nab some of these tech high flyers who specialize in Python and SQL programming languages. The demand for these wizards is insatiable and the key to any corporate digital migration strategy.
Second, being able to penetrate the target audience a notch above than what Walmart is traditionally accustomed to.
This would correlate into higher average spend per Walmart transaction which would become a feedback loop into Walmart carving out higher-grade product line-ups to compensate increasingly pressured margins.
Third, enhance the logistics and fulfillment strategy by automating more of the business process through robotics and a streamlined IT department.
Walmart has been in the process of scaling out this portion of the business process and they are probably the only one that can pull this off because of the gigantic addressable market and flowing access to capital.
Fourth, originate an educational program coaching up spendthrift customers on how to access its products digitally.
Investors must remember that a large swath of Walmart’s customers aren’t at the top of the socioeconomic ladder and seamlessly culling them into the digital orbit is a responsibility shouldered on upper management.
The goal is to gradually migrate every type of order variant online or through self-checkout means, and self-navigating through these payment and service barriers could be a hindrance as Walmart’s customer base is less tech-savvy than Amazon’s prime subscription customer base.
However, the smaller digital native customer base on a percentage basis is offset by the 4,700 physical stores allowing these partially digital-savvy customers to click and collect.
I view the click and collect distribution channel as a bridge towards becoming fully digital and if Walmart can provide superior customers service, this cohort will likely stick with Walmart’s full-service digital offerings in the future once they upgrade.
In the distant future, it’s almost guaranteed these physical stores end up as fulfillment centers with robotic automation or some type of mix of the two.
Walmart is starting to get serious looks as an e-commerce powerhouse, and I have consistently described Walmart as the next FANG. This latest earnings report reinforces this thesis.
I champion some of the moves to add to product lines such as online brands Art.com and female garment retailer Bare Necessities.
If Walmart could whip up an in-house brand similar to Amazon Basics, that would also be a gamechanger. That step is down the road and Walmart would need to accumulate higher expertise to convert certain products from the 3rd party variety.
Another growth inducer would be establishing a subscription-based service similar to Amazon Prime. Software as a subscription (SaaS) is all the rage in technology and for all the right reasons as this recurring revenue is a boon for the CFO and stabilizes finances.
The Arkansas-based firm forecasted e-commerce annual sales growth of 35% and indicated that huge sums of capital would be allocated into remodeling store units, reinforcing the e-commerce platform, and juicing up its supply chain operations.
Walmart is only scratching the surface and it would take a debacle of epic proportions or a massive recession crimping product demand to knock off Walmart from this high-speed train of positive momentum.
Yes, I agree this company isn’t even close to Amazon now, but the catch-up potential and that path to catch up is clear as daylight.
There is no need to chase shares at this price, but I can say that Walmart is on the verge of locking itself up at the $100 price point as an eternal support level moving forward.
If shares sell off to $90 because of the recent buying from oversold conditions, it could be one of the last times ever to secure a price that cheaply for a precious FANG company.
The company is also famous for continuously raising its dividend.
Walmart is an intriguing stock for the rest of 2019, particularly if the momentum snowballs from here.
“There are seven billion people in the world. And I think phones are the first time most people will have access to a modern computing device. With Android, we want to enable that for people.” – Said CEO of Google Sundar Pichai
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 19, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE SAFE PLACE TO HIDE IN TECH),
(CSCO), (ORCL), (WDAY), (ZEN), (HUBS), (NOW), (PYPL), (VEEV), (TWLO)
Great quarter by Cisco (CSCO).
That was the first thought in my head when perusing their quarterly earnings.
It’s been hit or miss for tech companies lately and at the end of 2018, I stood up and told readers to double down on software companies and specifically enterprise software companies.
Well, Cisco has skin in this software game because corporations cultivating software need the best type of network infrastructure money can buy.
Cisco is the foundational hardware on what current high-end software is built on.
It is all rosy to have a spectacular roof design, but without a solid foundation, we have nothing more than a house of cards.
The great part about Cisco is that they are immune to the software battle taking place inside of industries because they do not build the enterprise software that is built on top of the Cisco infrastructure.
We have seen our fair share of software companies go sideways such as Oracle (ORCL) who have presided over a stale patchwork of database system software created last gen.
However, on the other side of the coin, my prediction of enterprise software companies leading tech has been spot on.
Zendesk (ZEN), HubSpot (HUBS), ServiceNow (NOW), Workday (WDAY), PayPal (PYPL), Salesforce (CRM), Veeva Systems (VEEV), and Twilio (TWLO) are software companies that I was incredibly bullish on as we turned the calendar year and they have not disappointed with nearly all of these names flirting with all-time highs.
All these software companies need Cisco.
What stood out for me was that public sector orders grew 18% last quarter signaling that not only are the private corporations snapping up Cisco products, but governments are embedding their offices with Cisco’s Internet Protocol-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology industry.
And if you wanted a general tech stock to capture the migration from analog commerce to digital and stay out of the high stakes online media segment, this would be the stable name that would check all the boxes.
And if you thought this was just a domestic story, once again, the scope is wider with Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) sales expanding by 11% which eclipsed America sales by 4%.
The only blip on the radar was service revenue slipping by 1% to $3.17 billion, but I do not view that as a pattern of sequential deceleration and pricing mechanisms can be altered to relaunch growth.
If you thought that Cisco doesn’t sell any software – you are wrong.
The software they do sell applies to operating the proprietary hardware that they produce.
Cisco’s wide competitive advantage stems from the industries toweringly high barriers of entry and that they make great products relative to other players.
The infrastructure software that liaises brilliantly with its hardware is succinctly named Cisco ONE Software.
This software suite is molded to face the most relevant use cases in the data center, WAN, and access edge.
CEO of Cisco Chuck Robbins characterized the current geopolitical and overall economic landscape as “complex” but experienced “zero difference” in Chinese revenue giving the company a quarterly victory in the Middle Kingdom.
China’s economy is decelerating faster than we can understand. The latest details of ride-hailing leader Didi sacking 2,000 employees is a warning flare to the rest that open wounds are appearing in the economy and are becoming harder to conceal.
And for Cisco to do a quarter with no significant Chinese downdraft is a good sign that the company can handle the upcoming recession in 2020.
As a sign of further strength, Cisco raised its dividend and boosted stock buybacks which are all the trappings of what great companies do.
Cisco already made $5 billion of repurchases last quarter which was on top of the $6 billion they bought in October 2018.
This method of financial engineering helps put a solid floor under the stock delighting investors and ignites the share price.
And the capital allocation encore means that Cisco will pile $15 billion into its buyback program with this fresh authorization, and the company is forecasted to produce at least $15 billion in free cash flow over the next year.
Cisco’s balance sheet is glistening and even has options to adventure into meaningful M&A if they see something that catches their eye without any real hit to the balance sheet.
These multiple tailwinds in a precarious economic point in the cycle have investors aware that there are worse options out there to invest capital than tech thoroughbred Cisco.
And if you thought the one variable that could turn this earnings report from good to bad was expenses and margins, well, Cisco covered their bases on that one too.
Margins came within the forecasted guidance with gross margins slightly trending down by 1% to 64.1%.
Expenses were reigned in and management saw a small nudge up of 3% causing investors to take a deep sigh of relief.
Cisco is in a superior strategic spot to most tech companies and is a staunch participant of the migration to digital.
Buy shares on the dip.
“Any product that needs a manual to work is broken.” Said Founder and CEO of Tesla Elon Musk
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 14, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FACEBOOK’S NEW PROBLEM),
(FB), (GOOGL), (TRIP), (EXPE)
A major catalyst exacerbating recent tech layoffs has been a decline in referral traffic to news publishers from Facebook (FB).
Blame the algos!
Referral traffic is a way of reporting visits coming from a site from sources outside of the original site.
When someone clicks on a hyperlink leading to a different website, data analytics classified this as a referral visit to the second site by tracking mechanisms.
The truth is that news publishers have a painfully smaller window to monetize content than ever before and this opinion is echoed by some of big media’s stalwarts such as Rupert Murdoch, the chairman of News Corp.
Facebook decided to give preference to content in the news feed that is shared between Facebook users over those by news organizations, ironically, the news is being stripped out of the news feed whether that seems logical or not.
Under the guise of protecting the platform, Facebook is applying this ploy to further cut off users from escaping its walled garden trapping them inside for the purpose of clicking around the Facebook website even more.
As the technology evolves, companies are becoming increasingly pedantic in finding any practical method of allowing users to escape to another part of the internet.
Diminishing user time equals fewer clicks followed by reduced digital advertising revenue.
Another shift in Facebook rules entails elevating and demoting media outlets by trust levels and credible content that ultimately Facebook makes the decision on.
The algorithms in this case would prop up the more renowned institutions and essentially cut out minnow news organization.
Algorithms are inherently biased, and sources of revenue are cut off or opened up by these algorithmic shifts.
The monopolistic status of Facebook has made it near impossible for stand-alone firms to develop organically and ramping up digitally means leveraging Facebook ads to lure new customers.
What does this all mean?
News publications are bracing themselves for an atrocious year.
The side effect from recent changes mean that Facebook will ultimately become the God of the news cycle choosing which news populates where on the news feed or if it shows up at all.
Being a left-leaning company, Facebook is likely to anoint left-leaning news organizations as “trustworthy” while demoting more right-wing news feeds pushing them further down the pecking order.
And for marginal start-up news companies praying for any exposure, this is effectively a death sentence because of the lack of footprint inside of Facebook’s current database.
Machine learning cannot account for new developments in the system, let alone system altering shifts causing this technology to be defective.
The technology handsomely rewards the entrenched that have cultivated a big footprint inside the database that decisions hinge on.
Its backward-looking nature to carry out a business that is forward-looking is utter nonsense.
Many third-party businesses attempt to stimulate Facebook users’ appetite in order to bridge them over and act as a stepping stone to their own website.
Small businesses should prepare for an era where this type of digital reach is stunted and at some point, completely disengaged.
Effectively, Facebook and the rest of the FANGs will do its best to cut off outside activity preferring to keep usership in-house.
News organizations are feeling the full brunt of these ripple effects with online media firms such as Vox Media and BuzzFeed cutting staff in response to these Facebook algorithm changes.
Which industry will get chopped down next?
Online travel aggregators.
TripAdvisor (TRIP) had a great winter quarter in 2018, but looking down the line, the business model could get bogged down by the algorithm problem.
For instance, take the best flight purchase algorithm in the world Google Flights.
The United States Department of Justice Antitrust Division approved Google's $700 million purchase of ITA Software in 2011.
Within a few months, Google bent its algorithm into shape and reformulated it as Google Flights.
How does it stack up?
Easy to use, lack of digital ads, best of breed, and innovative are all ways I would describe this service.
That is why consumers prefer Google Flights over any other service.
It offers open-ended searches making the traditional flight search software seem pathetic.
Simply input the departure location and Google Flights will show the user every price to every location in the world on a visual map.
It’s travel transparency at its brightest and users can change trips in an instant if something attractive catches their eye.
The user can mix and match different destinations and dates until an optimal time and place can be calibrated along with a suitable price.
This gives the power back to the consumers.
Once in a while, dispersion between the Google Flight price and the official airline site price can be irritating, but the accuracy has improved over time.
Truth be told, it’s a waste of time to use a different flight search engine now after the existence of Google Flights.
Google is able to do this because they are masters at building algorithms and have an army of engineers at their disposal.
Online flight brokers such as Expedia (EXPE) and TripAdvisor are on a collision course for the beast that is the Google algorithm division.
This dovetails astutely with my overarching theme of technology destroying every broker industry because FANG algorithm teams do a way better job enhancing this segment of business than anyone else.
As you correctly guessed, I am bearish Expedia and TripAdvisor long term.
Travel fare aggregators can’t compete with Google and former CEO of Expedia Dara Khosrowshahi was smart to take the head job at Uber saving him from the future carnage.
“As companies get bigger, they tend to slow down. It's a universal law.” - Said CEO of Uber Dara Khosrowshahi
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