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MHFTR

The FANGs' Path to Online Banking

Tech Letter

Yu'e Bao or "leftover treasure" in English has caught the attention of more than 400 million Chinese investors.

This money market fund has exponentially grown into a $250 billion fund by the end of 2017, and is now the largest money market fund in the world!

This product isn't offered by Bank of China or another giant state-owned bank or financial enterprise, but Alibaba's (BABA) Ant Financial (gotta love those Chinese names).

Assets under management are up 100% YOY and it now accounts for a quarter of China's money-market mutual fund industry in just one fund.

These inflows coincide with the sudden migration into mobile payments. Common folks are comfortable with investing their life savings in these short-term instruments with a too-big-to-fail, larger-than-life firm such as Alibaba.

Yu'e Bao derives its funds from Alipay users, Alibaba's digital third-party platform, that allows consumers to pay for everything in life from theater tickets to utility bills.

Service is unified on a holistic graphic interface. Users can easily divert cash into this fund with a few screen taps on their app. Yu'e Bao's ROI offers a seven-day annualized yield of 4.02%, down from the introductory annualized rate of 6.9% around the launch in 2013.

Yu'e Bao's short-term yield outmuscles the 1.5% interest rate on one-year Chinese bank deposits and the 3.6% yield on 10-year Chinese government debt.

Weak banking regulation has spawned a mammoth FinTech (financial technology) industry in the Middle Kingdom. Only one yuan (16 cents) is enough to create an account and considerable retail flow has rushed in.

China has catapulted ahead of the rest of the world emerging as the leader of global FinTech innovation. The pace, sophistication, and scale of development of China's FinTech have surpassed the level in any other of the developed countries.

The country's digital metamorphosis has enhanced e-commerce, payment systems, and connected logistical services. The Chinese discretionary spender for the past decade has been the deepest and most reliable lever of global growth.

Mobile third-party payments in China, 90% cornered by Tencent's WeChat and Alibaba's Alipay, are estimated to reach a lofty $6 trillion in revenue by 2019, more than 50 times that of the U.S.

These omnipresent payment systems are now deeply embedded into the fabric of Chinese society. It's common to witness homeless people on Shanghai subways waving around a scannable image for WeChat or Alipay money transfers instead of asking for physical cash.

Even in rural farmlands, shabby convenience stores prioritize digital currency and sometimes don't accept paper currency at all. Yes, China is beating the U.S. to a cashless society.

Digitization is changing the competitive balance, and global banks must embrace large-scale disruption caused by big tech platforms.

Banks in China regard these companies as potential collaborators resulting in a net positive long-term infusion of enhanced products and services.

Agreements have been forged between the Bank of China and Tencent, and the China Construction Bank has linked up with Alibaba.

China has incorporated the technical power of A.I. (artificial intelligence) and machine learning into its FinTech platforms at every opportunity. Robo-advisors are also making inroads creating a bespoke financial program for the individual.

This trend has so far failed to go viral in America where individuals still prefer plastic cards or even paper cash. E-commerce clocked in a paltry 9.1% of total U.S. retail sales in the third quarter of 2017.

Even though most of us have our heads buried deep in our smartphone virtual world, Americans are still programmed to whip out debit or credit cards at every opportunity.

Chinese who visit America carp endlessly about America's archaic payment system.

Ultimately, American payment systems are ripe for digital disruption.

The American consumer will ultimately cause severe damage to MasterCard (MA), Visa (V), and American Express (AXP) which are happy with the current status quo.

The lack of innovation in the US FinTech sector is a failure in the otherwise fabulous technological leadership of the US. American smartphones should already be a fertile digital wallet, not just a niche market.

Savvy Jack Dorsey even invented a firm based on this inefficiency exploiting the lack of proficiency in domestic FinTech with Square (SQ).

And a vital reason the stock has gone parabolic this year is because of the brisk execution and the long runway ahead in this industry.

American big tech will gradually utilize China's FinTech model and extrapolate it with "American personality." It is much more of a two-way street now than before with cutting-edge ideas flowing both ways.

The next leg up after digital wallet penetration of FinTech is money market funds on tech platforms. In effect, the Chinese innovation of this industry has allowed more variations of potential financing for the ambitious Chinese, and the same trends will gradually appear on Yankee shores.

Ironically enough, Amazon's (AMZN) land grab strategy is more prevalent in China as artificially low financing and juicier scale justify this strategy.

The scaling premium also explains why corporate China's early adopter advantage is so effective because not many countries boast a 1.3-billion-person consumer market.

Soon, Americans will wake up to the reality that American FinTech must advance or foreign firms will rush in.

Mediocrity is not good enough.

iPhones and Android consumers could direct savings into tech money market funds with compounding yield all on a single digital platform.

Tech companies could deploy some of the repatriated cash to invest in some fledgling FinTech expertise to smoothly execute this new endeavor.

Consequently, a successfully created money market fund on a tech platform would enlarge the already substantial cash hoard these firms possess. Not only will the large tech companies flourish, but the big will get absolutely massive.

The determining factor is financial regulation. Capitol Hill has drawn a large swath of mighty Silicon Valley tech titans to testify because they are stepping on too many toes lately.

A scheme to hijack the digital payments market and dominate the mutual fund industry will cause unyielding push back in Washington especially when the Amazon death star continues pillaging select industries of their choosing and eliminating brick-and-mortar jobs by the millions.

J.P. Morgan (JPM) which has the largest institutional money market fund in the country and retail stalwarts such as BlackRock and Vanguard will be sweating profusely too if mega tech starts probing around its turf.

Alibaba is also coming for its bacon with the failed purchase of payment transfer service MoneyGram International (MGI) temporarily shutting out Jack Ma from a foothold in the American payment system industry.

And if the Chinese aren't let in, there will be others sniffing around for the bacon, too.

The momentum for these financial instruments is robust as FinTech integrates deeper into consumer life. The global cash glut from a decade of cheap financing is causing profit-hungry investors to starve for high-yield vehicles.

The stability and clean balance sheets of tech giants give them ample chance to successfully execute. So, why can't they also become banks? Would you buy an Apple, Amazon, or Google money market fund if they offered a 4% to 7% annualized yield?

I believe most Americans would.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2019-01-02 02:06:322019-07-09 05:00:39The FANGs' Path to Online Banking
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 2, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

"If you're gonna make connections which are innovative... you have to not have the same bag of experiences as everyone else does," - said the former co-founder of Apple, Steve Jobs.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Steve-Jobs-quote-of-the-day.jpg 276 276 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-01-02 02:05:342019-07-09 05:00:22January 2, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 31, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 31, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(NEWSPAPERS REALLY KNOW WHO YOU ARE),
(TPCO), (AMZN), (FB), (GOOGL), (USPS), (SFTBY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-31 01:07:472018-12-30 22:26:37December 31, 2018
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 27, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE CONUNDRUM),
(TSLA), (AMZN), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-27 01:07:102018-12-26 17:03:05December 27, 2018
MHFTR

The Artificial Intelligence Conundrum

Tech Letter

Anti-A.I. physicist Professor Stephen Hawking was a staunch supporter of preserving human interests against the future existential threat from machines and artificial intelligence (A.I.).

He was diagnosed with motor neuron disease, more commonly known as Lou Gehrig's disease, in 1963 at the age of 21 and sadly passed away March 14, 2018 at the age of 76.

Famed for his work on black holes, Professor Hawking represented the human quest to maintain its superiority against quickly advancing artificial acculturation.

His passing was a huge loss for mankind as his voice was a deterrent to A.I.'s relentless march to supremacy. He was one of the few who had the authority to opine on these issues. Gone is a voice of reason.

Critics have argued that living with A.I. poses a red alert threat to privacy, security, and society as a whole. Unfortunately, those most credible and knowledgeable about A.I. are tech firms. They have shown that policing themselves on this front is remarkably unproductive.

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook (FB), has labeled naysayers as "irresponsible" and dismissed the threat. After failing to prevent Russian interference in the last election, he is exhibiting the same defensive posture translating into a de facto admission of guilt. His track record of shirking accountability is becoming a trend.

Share prices will materially nosedive if A.I. is stonewalled and development stunted. Many CEOs who stake careers on doubling or tripling down on A.I. cannot see it die out. There is too much money to lose.

The world will see major improvements in the quality of life in the next 10 years. But there is another side to the coin which Zuckerberg and company refuse to delve into...the dark side of technology.

Defective Amazon (AMZN) Alexa recently produced unexplained laughter because of a mistaken command to start laughing. Despite avoiding calamity, these small events show the magnitude of potential chaos capable of haywire A.I. functions. If one day a user attempts to order a box of tissues and Alexa burns down the house, who is liable?

Tesla's (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has shared his anxiety about robots flipping the script on humans. Elon acknowledges that A.I. and autonomous vehicles are important factors in the battle for new technology. The winner is yet to be determined as China has bet the ranch with unlimited resources from Chairman Xi.

The quagmire with China has been squarely centered around the great race for technological supremacy.

A.I. is the ultimate X factor in this race and whoever can harness and develop the fastest will win.

Musk has hinted that robots and humans could merge into one species in the future. Is this the next point of competition among tech companies? The future is murky at best.

Bill Gates noted that robots should be taxed like humans. This reflects the bubble in which the ultra-elite reside. This comment implies that humans and robots are at the same level. It shows a severe lack of empathy for the 40% of working Americans who will be replaced by machines over the next 10 years.

The West is comprised of a deeply hierarchical system of winners and losers. Hawking's premise that evolution has inbuilt greed can be found in the underpinnings of America's economic miracle.

Wall Street has bred a culture that is entirely self-serving regardless of the bigger system in which it finds itself.

Most of us are participating in this perpetual money game chase because our system treats it as a natural part of life. A.I. will help more people do well in this paper chase to the detriment of the majority.

Quarterly earnings performance is paramount for CEOs. Return value back to shareholders or face the sack in the morning. It's impossible to convince anyone that America's capitalist model is deteriorating in the greatest bull market of all time.

Wall Street has an insatiable hunger for cutting-edge technology from companies that sequentially beat earnings and raise guidance. Flourishing technology companies enrich the participants creating a Teflon-like resistance to downside market risk.

The issue with Professor Hawking's work is that his timeframe is too far in the future. Professor Hawking was probably correct, but it will take 25 years to prove it.

The world is quickly changing as science fiction becomes reality. The year 2019 will signal the real beginning of A.I. in tangible form when autonomous fleets flood main streets and is another step in the direction of human's overreliance on machines.

People on Wall Street are a product of the system in place and earn a tremendous amount of money because they proficiently execute a specialized job. Traders are busy focusing on how to move ahead of the next guy.

Firms building autonomous cars are free to operate as is. Hyper-accelerating technology spurs on the development of A.I., machine learning, and enhanced algorithms. Record profits will topple, and investors will funnel investments back into an even narrower grouping of technology stocks after the weak hands are flushed out.

Professor Hawking said we need to explore our technological capabilities to the fullest in order to avoid extinction. In 2018, exploring these new capabilities still equals monetizing through the medium of products and services.

This is all bullish for equities as the leading companies associated with A.I. will not be subject to any imminent regulation, blowback, or government intervention.

And let me remind you that technology is still the least regulated industry on the planet.

It has its cake and is eating it too. Hence, technology is starting to cross over into other industries demonstrating the powerful footprint tech has extracted in economics and the stock market.

The only solution is keeping companies accountable by a function of law or creating a third-party task force to regulate A.I. In 2018, the thought of overseeing robots sounds crazy.

However, by 2019, it might be as normal as uncontrollable laughter from your smart home.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Aliens.png 375 952 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-12-27 01:06:532018-12-26 17:00:48The Artificial Intelligence Conundrum
MHFTF

December 27, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge," said the late Professor Stephen Hawking.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/hawking-2-e1521135571437.jpg 173 309 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-12-27 01:05:282018-12-26 17:08:30December 27, 2018 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 26, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE HIGH COST OF DRIVING OUT
OUR FOREIGN TECHNOLOGISTS),

(EA), (ADBE), (BABA), (BIDU), (FB), (GOOGL), (TWTR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-26 03:07:532018-12-26 02:40:27December 26, 2018
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The High Cost of Driving Out Our Foreign Technologists

Tech Letter

There is only so much juice you can squeeze from a lemon before nothing is left.

Silicon Valley has been focused mainly on squeezing the juice out of the Internet for the past 30 years with intense focus on the American consumer.

In an era of minimal regulation, companies grew at breakneck speeds right into families' living quarters and it was a win-win proposition for both the user and the Internet.

The cream of the crop ideas was found briskly and the low hanging fruit was pocketed by the venture capitalists (VCs).

That was then, and this is now.

No longer will VCs simply invest in various start-ups and 10 years later a Facebook (FB) or Alphabet (GOOGL) appears out of thin air.

That story is over. Facebook was the last one in the door.

VCs will become more selective because brilliant ideas must withstand the passage of time. Companies want to continue to be relevant in 20 or 30 years and not just disintegrate into obsolescence as did the Eastman Kodak Company, the doomed maker of silver-based film.

The San Francisco Bay Area is the mecca of technology but recent indicators have presaged the upcoming trends that will reshape the industry.

In general, a healthy and booming local real estate sector is a net positive creating paper wealth for its local people and attracting money slated for expansion.

However, it's crystal clear the net positive has flipped and housing is now a buzzword for the maladies young people face to sustain themselves in the ultra-expensive coastal Northern California megacities.

The loss of tax deductions in the recent tax bill makes conditions even more draconian.

Monthly rental costs are deterring tech's future minions. Without the droves of talent flooding the area, it becomes harder for the industry to incrementally expand.

It also boosts the costs of existing development/operations staffers whose capital feeds back into the local housing market buying whatever they can barely afford for astronomical prices.

Another price spike ensues with first-time home buyers piling into already bare-bones inventory because of the fear of missing out (FOMO).

After surveying HR tech heads, it's clear there aren't enough artificial intelligence (A.I.) programmers and coders to fill internal projects.

Compounding the housing crisis is the change of immigration policy that has frightened off many future Silicon Valley workers.

There is no surprise that millions of aspiring foreign students wish to take advantage of America's treasure of higher education because there is nothing comparable at home.

The best and brightest foreign minds are trained in America and a mass exodus would create an even fiercer deficit for global dev-ops talent.

These U.S.-trained foreign tech workers are the main drivers of foreign tech start-ups.

Dangling carrots and sticks for a chance to start an embryonic project in the cozy confines of home is hard to pass up.

Ironically enough, there are more A.I. computer scientists of Chinese origin in America than there are in all of China.

There is a huge movement by the Chinese private sector to bring everyone back home as China vies to become the industry leader in A.I.

Silicon Valley is on the verge of a brain drain of mythical proportions.

If America allows all these brilliant minds to fly home not only to China but everywhere else, America is just training these workers to compete against American workers.

A premier example is Baidu co-founder Robin Li who received his master's degree in computer science from the State University of New York at Buffalo in 1994.

After graduation, his first job was at Dow Jones & Company, a subsidiary of News Corp., writing code for the online version of the Wall Street Journal.

During this stint, he developed an algorithm for ranking search results that he patented, flew back to China, created the Google search engine equivalent, and named it Baidu (BIDU).

Robin Li is now one of the richest people in China with a fortune of close to $20 billion.

To show it's not just a one-hit-wonder type scenario, three of the top five start-ups are currently headquartered in Beijing and not in California.

The most powerful industry in America's economy is just a transient training hub for foreign nationals before they go home to make the real moola.

More than 70% of tech employees in Silicon Valley and more than 50% in the San Francisco Bay Area are foreign, according to the 2016 census data.

Adding insult to injury, the exorbitant cost of housing is preventing burgeoning American talent from migrating from rural towns across America and moving to the Bay Area.

They make it as far West as Salt Lake City, Reno, or Las Vegas.

Instead of living a homeless life in Golden Gate Park, they decide to set up shop in a second-tier American city after horror stories of Bay Area housing starts to populate their friends' Instagram feeds and are shared a million times over.

This trend was reinforced by domestic migration statistics.

Between 2007 and 2016, 5 million people moved to California, and 6 million people moved out of the state.

The biggest takeaways are that many of these new California migrants are from New York, possess graduate degrees, and command an annual salary of more than $110,000.

Conversely, Nevada, Arizona, and Texas have major inflows of migrants that mostly earn less than $50,000 per year and are less educated.

That will change in the near future.

Ultimately, if VCs think it is expensive now to operate a start-up in Silicon Valley, it will be costlier in the future.

Pouring gasoline on the flames, Northern California schools are starting to fold like a house of cards due to minimal household formation wiping out student numbers.

The dire shortage of affordable housing is the region's No. 1 problem.

A 1,066-sq.-ft. property in San Jose's Willow Glen neighborhood went on sale for $800,000.

This would be considered an absolute steal at this price but the catch is the house was badly burned two years ago. This is the price for a teardown.

When you combine the housing crisis with the price readjustment for big data, it looks as if Silicon Valley has peaked or at the very least, it's not cheap.

Yes, the FANGs will continue their gravy train but the next big thing to hit tech will not originate from California.

VCs will overwhelmingly invest in data over rental bills. The percolation of tech ingenuity will likely pop up in either Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, or yes, even Michigan.

Even though these states attract poorer migrants, the lower cost of housing is beginning to attract tech professionals who can afford more than a burned down shack.

Washington state has become a hotbed for bitcoin activity. Small rural counties set in the Columbia Basin such as Chelan, Douglas, and Grant used to be farmland.

The bitcoin industry moved three hours east of Seattle for one reason and one reason only - cost.

Electricity is five times cheaper there because of fluid access to plentiful hydro-electric power.

Many business decisions come down to cost, and a fractional advantage of pennies.

Globalization has supercharged competition, and technology is the lubricant fueling competition to new heights.

Once millennials desire to form families, the only choices are regions where housing costs are affordable and areas that aren't bereft of tech talent.

Cities such as Las Vegas and Reno in Nevada; Austin, Texas; Phoenix, Arizona; and Salt Lake City, Utah, will turn into hotbeds of West Coast growth engines just as Hangzhou, China-based Alibaba (BABA) turned that city into more than a sleepy backwater town with a big lake at its center.

The overarching theme of decentralizing is taking the world by storm. The built-up power levers in Northern California are overheated, and the decentralization process will take many years to flow into the direction of these smaller but growing cities.

Salt Lake City, known as Silicon Slopes, has been a tech magnet of late with big players such as Adobe (ADBE), Twitter (TWTR), and EA Sports (EA) opening new branches there while Reno has become a massive hotspot for data server farms. Nearby Sparks hosts Tesla's Gigafactory 1 along with massive data centers for Apple, Alphabet, and Switch.

The half a billion-dollars required to build a proper tech company will stretch further in Austin or Las Vegas, and most of the funds will be reserved for tech talent - not slum landlords.

The nail in the coffin will be the millions saved in state taxes.

The rise of the second-tier cities is the key to staying ahead of the race for tech supremacy.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-26 03:06:542018-12-26 03:03:44The High Cost of Driving Out Our Foreign Technologists
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 26, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

"Twitter is about moving words. Square is about moving money," - said CEO of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, to The New Yorker, October 2013

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Jack-Dorsey-oct18.png 549 590 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-26 03:05:182018-12-26 02:35:12December 26, 2018 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 24, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 24, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE CLOUD FOR DUMMIES)
(AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (CRM), (ZS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-24 01:07:082018-12-21 18:47:24December 24, 2018
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