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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

America Shines While Europe Slumbers

Tech Letter

Europe’s fintech companies are exploding.

The weakness in stock prices is emblematic of the broader malaise in the Eurozone economy.

The positive here is that the US economy keeps chugging along and on a relative basis, is leaps and bounds stronger than its counterpart.

Why does that matter?

The less money invested into European tech can be diverted into the likes of Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (APPL), and the rest of the American tech companies.

I absolutely see this as a zero sum game in a world where all the low-hanging fruit has been plucked.

In a globalized world, investors can really just dabble in whatever national market they seek to profit from with ease. 

It’s really just a few taps of the screen.

Silicon Valley is already heavily entrenched in Europe with sprawling workforces in many of the 27 countries in which they arbitrage lower wages to their benefit.

If one ever hoped a local rival would root out American variants, it’s a hard slog ahead.

France’s worldline shares plummeted a record 59%, erasing €3.8 billion ($4 billion) of market value, after the French payments company slashed future forecasts.

The stock’s plunge echoes August’s huge fall in peer Adyen NV and follows Tuesday’s 72% drop in fintech CAB Payments Plc. Shares in Adyen declined 7.5% on Wednesday, while another peer, Nexi SpA, slid 18%.

Since then, worries over lofty valuations and a broader slowdown in consumer spending have brought the high-flying stocks back to earth. Adyen, Nexi, and Worldline have lost more than $33 billion in market value combined in the year to date.

Worldline said it now sees full-year organic revenue growth of 6% to 7%, down from a previous forecast of 8% to 10%. The company’s third-quarter sales also missed estimates.

Small fintech companies growing in the single digits is one of the biggest fopaux an up-and-coming fintech company can commit.

Management also complained that European consumers are tapped out.

They don’t have the money to allocate to “non-discretionary” items.

Europeans are basically paying for shelter, energy, and food.

If there is anything else left over, it’s not much. That’s what happens when the cost of living rises between two and three times.

Management also emphasized an acute slowdown in German consumer spending which hurts since these consumers are some of Europe fintechs biggest customers.

I do believe that many investors aren’t going to stay invested in Europe’s fintech space and it is ripe for consolidation which ironically could come from America’s magnificent 7 who have the deep pockets.

It’s a fragmented sub-sector of tech with some operators pigeonholed into one microscopic area of Europe like Andorra or Slovenia.

Technology scales but Europe is hard in the sense it must cut through a vast language, sprawling bureaucracy, high tax regimes, and cultural barriers not to mention different laws. Throw into the mix that multinationals have stopped supporting work visas for non-EU citizens and it is easy to understand why Europe is not ideal for starting tech firms.

The narrow path is why a company like Worldline generates revenue of around $1.2 billion per quarter as opposed to an American PayPal (PYPL) which does $8 billion per quarter.

If we look at the big boys like Google, quarterly revenue goes up to $80 billion per quarter highlighting how far back Europe is from the real upper echelon of American tech.

If Europe is getting trounced by the likes of PayPal, then investors can’t get angry when they get labeled the bush leagues of global technology.

Look at Silicon Valley and especially the tier 2 firms like Uber (UBER) or AirBnb (ABNB) for the real growth instead of Europe’s suffocation of free market technology.

 

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 23, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 23, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A SIMPLE GUIDE TO QUANTUM COMPUTING)
(RGTI), (IONQ)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A Simple Guide To Quantum Computing

Tech Letter

According to IBM, Quantum computing is a rapidly emerging technology that harnesses the laws of quantum mechanics to solve problems too complex for classical computers.

Used correctly, quantum computers are incredibly fast and effective. They can perform calculations in a few seconds for which today's supercomputers would need decades or even millennia. This fact is also referred to by experts as quantum superiority.

Why Buy Quantum Computing Stocks?

Quantum computing isn’t so crazy as you think and it’s inching closer to reality.

These types of transcendent technologies are what investors need to key in on to help make their tech stock portfolio better than ever.

This will enable researchers to break new ground in areas such as pharmaceutical drug discovery, weather forecasting, cybersecurity, and computational chemistry.

It will also result in unprecedented gains for owners of quantum computing stocks.

The Best Quantum Computing Stocks

Will quantum computing be successful? That's the multi-trillion dollar question.

We're in the first innings of a long ball game if the game has even started.

Still, there are already some pioneers that are re-imagining the field.

Here are two quantum computing stocks to put on your radar:

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI)

Rigetti Computing builds and deploys integrated quantum computing systems leveraging superconducting qubit technology.

CEO Chad Rigetti has a simple and clear thesis on this space: “In the next decade, a single Rigetti quantum computer could be more powerful than the entire global cloud industry today.”

Rigetti will need the capital infusion from going public because the firm doesn’t have any positive revenue to talk about. The IPO delivered a much-needed financial lifeline and the additional $458 million in funding came after an initial $200 million was raised previously. That could also be a big con about the sub-sector, it might be years until an actual profitable income stream is built.

Whoever said that Rome was built in one day?

Quantum computing is only at the beginning of its development. It is difficult to estimate how large the market demand for this product will be. It's also uncertain how quickly Rigetti or competitors like IonQ will be able to expand their technical capabilities. This is an entirely new technological territory, so there are zero guarantees here in this tech sub-sector.

Needless to say, Rigetti is a concept stock for now. One has to believe in the underlying vision of quantum computing to place a bet here. Otherwise, it would be wise to switch to other stocks without a quantum computing business plan or corporate strategy.

IonQ (IONQ)

IonQ produces quantum hardware and software.

IonQ was faster to market than Rigetti, making it the first publicly traded quantum computer stock. Also, the company is backed by a number of influential investors including Bill Gates, Silver Lake, and Fidelity.

Unfortunately, like many SPACs these days, IonQ only exists on paper. That means there is still very little operational business. IonQ only did a few million in revenue last year and had no revenue in 2019 or 2020. In fact, free cash flow is projected to remain negative through at least 2026. Also, it will take multiple technological leaps - such as machine learning - to reach a point where quantum computing can reach mass markets and make IonQ successful.

RGTI’s market cap is only $125 million and IonQ’s is $927 million and they are cheap for a reason.

Investors aren’t willing to pay for the time it's willing to take for quantum computing to go mainstream yet.

However, if a reader is willing to invest with a 35-year view, then it would make sense to invest 1% of one’s portfolio into these names and also at a time when interest rates are trending lower.

These types of loss-makers and far-in-the-future bets work better when the cost of capital is lower. 

Expect some stock appreciation as investors start to bet on the Fed lowering interest rates.

 

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 20, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 20, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(INDIA CATCHES A TECH WAVE)
(GOOGL), (AAPL)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

India Catches A Tech Wave

Tech Letter

With all the tumult going on in the world today, it’s not shocking that big decisions are being made in terms of tech production and manufacturing outsourcing.

These decisions will reverberate through the tech world for a generation.

China used to be the factory of the world and many thought that its economy would rebound from its lockdown lull to carry the tech world on its shoulders.

It’s clear that China will remain in the doldrums. 

China and the west are decoupling fast and that means American tech companies are no longer comfortable doing business in the Middle Kingdom.

Many big players like Apple are hitching a ride out of the land of pot stickers and Beijing roast duck.

The latest announcement was Alphabet (GOOGL) who will begin production in India of its Pixel 8 smartphones in time for sales in 2024.

Google will partner with local and global suppliers to put together its first India-made handsets, hardware.

The move from the company responsible for Android, the world’s most-used mobile operating system, adds to a string of successes by India’s government in enticing international device makers to build locally.

Dixon Technologies India and Foxconn Technology Group’s Indian unit are the leading contenders to manufacture the phone.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has attracted greater investment from Apple, which opened its first two stores in India this year and is increasingly shifting iPhone production from China to India.

The latest iPhone 15 generation was also the first in the company’s history to launch made-in-India handsets at the same time as those made in China.

Outside of US device makers, Samsung Electronics Co. also manufactures its Galaxy handsets in India and Chinese Android vendors have set up partnerships with local assemblers.

Google counts India as a critical growth engine, where most smartphones run on its Android ecosystem.

However, Google also faces business and regulatory challenges there – startups and companies like Disney have legally challenged some of its in-app policies. Google is also fighting several antitrust battles including one related to alleged abuse of its position in the Android market.

Interestingly, the South Asia country's approach to attracting big manufacturing investments isn't limited to incentives alone.

The government has also implemented comprehensive restrictions to control the influx of foreign electronic devices. It's a strategic blend of both persuasion and coercion, convincing these tech giants to take the plunge into the Indian manufacturing landscape.

Around 200 U.S. companies are actively exploring the possibility of shifting their manufacturing bases from China to India, according to the US-India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF).

It is entirely realistic that in the short future that India will secure the title of the world's largest global manufacturing hub, toppling China's longstanding dominance in the years to come.

These developments are emblematic of a tech manufacturing world in turmoil.

India is perceived as a safe bet to be able to pump out all those gizmos and gadgets that American big tech is reliant on to drive sales.

India also has a massive work force that specializes in software.

It’s easy to say that if American big and small tech hopes to power itself for the next 30 years; they absolutely need the mojo of Indian tech labor and manufacturing to prop up Silicon Valley.

Google moving their supply chain to India gives me more conviction in recommending this stock for the long term.

 

 

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 20, 2023 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Experience is the teacher of all things.” – Said Former Roman Leader Julius Caesar

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/julius.png 594 412 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-10-20 17:00:212023-10-20 17:50:07October 20, 2023 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 18, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 18, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MORAL HIGH GROUND MANIFESTO)
(ABNB), (META), (VENTURE CAPITALISM)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Moral High Ground Manifesto

Tech Letter

Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen posted a manifesto, calling for “techno-optimism” and delivered quite a few bizarre ideas all under the idea that “we are being lied to.”

He starts out his rant by playing the victim as a man whose net worth has surged to around $2 billion and he also doesn’t tell us who is lying to us.

He articulates to his audience that “we are told that technology takes our jobs, reduces our wages, increases inequality, threatens our health, ruins the environment, degrades our society, corrupts our children, impairs our humanity, threatens our future, and is ever on the verge of ruining everything.”

That is quite the doomsday prognosis of technology and sounds like someone who spends too much time watching TikTok videos.

I believe that most US consumers have some idea that technology can be divided into the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Painting the concept of technology as all bad or all good is an attempt to play up the drama of his blog which isn’t quite dramatic.

One of the biggest takeaways from his blog is that Mr. Horowitz has minimal opportunities to communicate with normal American people and because of that, he doesn’t understand what is considered common sense.

Living in a bubble can be dangerous and group think becomes entrenches with the same narrow opinions swiftly rotating through a tight knit circle.

Laughably, Horowitz tries to take the moral high ground saying that “we believe that advancing technology is one of the most virtuous things that we can do.”

I believe he is only saying that because he will have skin in the game and if technology equals high morality, then it would be impossible for a man like Horowitz, in his position, to not double or quadruple his net wealth.

He even double downs on the moral high ground position by giving us a blockbuster quote of “we believe Artificial Intelligence can save lives.”

He, again, paints a sub-sector of technology into a save lives or die proposition.

Technology is more nuanced and it’s blatantly obvious that he is attempting to skew the narrative in which he sees fit so it benefits him.

Horowitz intentionally skips the possibility that AI could be used to kill people out of malice in terms of drones, killer robots, autonomous weapons, nuclear bombs, hypersonic missiles.

He arrives at the conclusion that “the only perpetual source of growth is technology.” Thus, we need this only perpetual growth to makes peoples likes better.

This quote only sounds like he is wants the world to believe that the world cannot function without him and his huge ego.

My opinion is that many of these billionaires have lost the real pulse of the nation and are living too much in an alternative reality that are occupied by other billionaires and their consensus ideas.

This blog almost sounded like a real estate agent telling a buyer that it is a great time to buy a house, even with 10, 20, 30% mortgage rates.

I do believe that technologists like him will never be able to re-establish the moral high ground for at least 2 or 3 generations.

The whole Facebook (META) connecting the world marketing ploy and Airbnb (ABNB) live next to your neighbor because we are all buddy buddy is gone and won’t come back soon.

Selling hopium is old news and I don’t believe the same guys who profited from Facebook will lead the technology innovation races in the next round.

The quality of their ideas has deteriorated and it’s clear that leading technologies like the iPhone is on its last legs.

This manifesto screams desperation. It’s also interesting that he didn’t even mention crypto which he’s a huge investor in.

It’s even more interesting that he is calling for no regulations on technology in which crypto would massively benefits. He intentionally stays away from that central topic.

Technology needs to be re-imagined and by a new set of fresh blood. The old guard has become stale and this manifesto is proof of their desperation that it might be hard for their old ideas to become accepted in a rapidly changing world. They want the era of zero rates to never end.

 

Andreessen Horowitz investments

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Go Straight To The Top With The Cloud

Tech Letter

Dealing with the Cloud works and for every relevant tech company, this division serves as the pipeline to the CEO position.

If this isn’t the case for a tech company, then there’s something egregiously wrong with them!

Take Andy Jassy, the mastermind behind Amazon’s (AMZN) lucrative cloud computing division and was the man who succeeded company founder Jeff Bezos.

He was rewarded this important position based on his performance in the cloud and faces a daunting proposition of following Bezos as CEO.  

Bezos incorporated Amazon almost 30 years ago.

Jassy developed a highly profitable and market-leading business, Amazon Web Services, that runs data centers serving a wide range of corporate computing needs.

Cloud 101

If you've been living under a rock the past few years, the cloud phenomenon hasn't passed you by and you still have time to cash in.

You want to hitch your wagon to cloud-based investments in any way, shape, or form.

Amazon leads the cloud industry it created.

It still maintains more than 30% of the cloud market. Microsoft would need to gain a lot of ground to even come close to this jewel of a business.

Amazon relies on AWS to underpin the rest of its businesses and that is why AWS contributes most of Amazon's total operating income.

Total revenue for just the AWS division would operate as a healthy stand-alone tech company if need be.

The future is about the cloud.

These days, the average investor probably hears about the cloud a dozen times a day.

If you work in Silicon Valley, you can quadruple that figure.

So, before we get deep into the weeds with this letter on cloud services, cloud fundamentals, cloud plays, and cloud Trade Alerts, let's get into the basics of what the cloud actually is.

Think of this as a cloud primer.

It's important to understand the cloud, both its strengths and limitations.

Giant companies that have it figured out, such as Salesforce (CRM) and Zscaler (ZS), are some of the fastest-growing companies in the world.

Understand the cloud and you will readily identify its bottlenecks and bulges that can lead to extreme investment opportunities. And that is where I come in.

Cloud storage refers to the online space where you can store data. It resides across multiple remote servers housed inside massive data centers all over the country, some as large as football fields, often in rural areas where land, labor, and electricity are cheap.

They are built using virtualization technology, which means that storage space spans across many different servers and multiple locations. If this sounds crazy, remember that the original Department of Defense packet-switching design was intended to make the system atomic bomb-proof.

As a user, you can access any single server at any one time anywhere in the world. These servers are owned, maintained, and operated by giant third-party companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which may or may not charge a fee for using them.

The most important features of cloud storage are:

1) It is a service provided by an external provider.

2) All data is stored outside your computer residing inside an in-house network.

3) A simple Internet connection will allow you to access your data at anytime from anywhere.

4) Because of all these features, sharing data with others is vastly easier, and you can even work with multiple people online at the same time, making it the perfect, collaborative vehicle for our globalized world.

Once you start using the cloud to store a company's data, the benefits are many.

No Maintenance

Many companies, regardless of their size, prefer to store data inside in-house servers and data centers.

However, these require constant 24-hour-a-day maintenance, so the company has to employ a large in-house IT staff to manage them - a costly proposition.

Thanks to cloud storage, businesses can save costs on maintenance since their servers are now the headache of third-party providers.

Instead, they can focus resources on the core aspects of their business where they can add the most value, without worrying about managing IT staff of prima donnas.

Greater Flexibility

Today's employees want to have a better work/life balance and this goal can be best achieved by letting them working remotely which effectively happened because of the public health situation. Increasingly, workers are bending their jobs to fit their lifestyles, and that is certainly the case here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

How else can I send off a Trade Alert while hanging from the face of a Swiss Alp?

Cloud storage services, such as Google Drive, offer exactly this kind of flexibility for employees.

With data stored online, it's easy for employees to log into a cloud portal, work on the data they need to, and then log off when they're done. This way a single project can be worked on by a global team, the work handed off from time zone to time zone until it's done.

It also makes them work more efficiently, saving money for penny-pinching entrepreneurs.

Better Collaboration and Communication

In today's business environment, it's common practice for employees to collaborate and communicate with co-workers located around the world.

For example, they may have to work on the same client proposal together or provide feedback on training documents. Cloud-based tools from DocuSign, Dropbox, and Google Drive make collaboration and document management a piece of cake.

These products, which all offer free entry-level versions, allow users to access the latest versions of any document so they can stay on top of real-time changes which can help businesses to better manage workflow, regardless of geographical location.

Data Protection

Another important reason to move to the cloud is for better protection of your data, especially in the event of a natural disaster. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on local data centers in New York City, forcing many websites to shut down their operations for days.

And we haven’t talked about the ransomware attacks by Eastern Europeans on energy company Colonial Pipeline and meat producer JBS Foods.

The cloud simply routes traffic around problem areas as if, yes, they have just been destroyed by a nuclear attack.

It's best to move data to the cloud, to avoid such disruptions because there your data will be stored in multiple locations.

This redundancy makes it so that even if one area is affected, your operations don't have to capitulate, and data remains accessible no matter what happens. It's a system called deduplication.

Lower Overhead

The cloud can save businesses a lot of money.

By outsourcing data storage to cloud providers, businesses save on capital and maintenance costs, money that in turn can be used to expand the business. Setting up an in-house data center requires tens of thousands of dollars in investment, and that's not to mention the maintenance costs it carries.

Plus, considering the security, reduced lag, up-time and controlled environments that providers such as Amazon's AWS have, creating an in-house data center seems about as contemporary as a buggy whip, a corset, or a Model T.

The cloud is where you want to be.

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 16, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 16, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(GO STRAIGHT TO THE TOP WITH THE CLOUD)
(AMZN), (ZS), (CRM), (GOOGL)

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