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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Google Enters the A.I. Game

Tech Letter

Google rolling out a catalog of artificial intelligence products delivered a nice boost to its share price.

I was expecting this at some point and after getting caught off guard by the strategic moves that Microsoft (MSFT) made, I am not surprised they rolled this out so quickly.

Alphabet, the parent company of Google, was up over 4% yesterday.

This is just the beginning of the A.I. revolution and CEO Sundar Pichai has figured out how to keep GOOGL’s share price going up.

All you need to do is keep saying “A.I.” and investors will back up the truck to load as much stock as possible.

This tactic has worked awfully well because if you strip out the stock gains related to A.I. in 2023, the Nasdaq would most likely be down this year.

Tech being as it is, only a handful of companies are able to take advantage of this structural change in the sector.

Personally, I am not so sold on OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Of course, I can change my mind, but it hasn’t impressed me yet.

I asked a few test questions myself and one of the answers to my question about making a fortune quickly was disappointing.

ChatGPT told me I should become an Uber driver, rent out a single room in my house, and complete online surveys. It then rounded out the answer by telling me to sell my old stuff on eBay.

These are answers that I doubt many would consider ways to make fortunes.

I can see how replacing clerical white-collar jobs could be applicable with this technology, and that means a lot of jobs.

However, the jobs that require using data to make forecasts are not replaceable by A.I. simply because back-tested data can’t just be regurgitated for the future.

Some of the recent hype is nothing more than marketing chutzpah which Silicon Valley is good at.  

But I do still think Google is going in the right direction and investors will coalesce around this A.I. love fest without even doing due diligence if the tech works well or not.

Google is attempting to reclaim its crown as the leader in artificial intelligence with PaLM 2, a “next-generation language model” that the company says outperforms other leading systems on some tasks.

Revealing the cutting-edge AI at its annual I/O conference, alongside a foldable Pixel phone and a new tablet, Google said it would be built in to 25 new products and features, as the company moved ahead of competitors after years of producing AI research but few products.

The most obvious way to interact with PaLM 2 will be in Google’s own chatbot, Bard, which is opening up to the general public for the first time and rolling out globally.

Utilizing PaLM 2’s multilingual capabilities, Bard is also available in Japanese and Korean, as well as English, and the company intends to support 40 languages in time.

The key question is Google able to follow through to carry the stock through a recession?

The A.I. pivot won’t get Google through alone because there is no meaningful revenue coming from A.I. yet.

I would most likely believe that Google shares will consolidate if a recession comes to pass at the end of 2023.

The job market at 3.4% has continued to be resilient and big tech has become more efficient by firing all the fake jobs with high salaries.

Even on a strongly red day, Google has still held the day mostly in the green showing readers how effective spinning the A.I. story can be. That should continue until the next big disruptor.

Buy GOOGL on the dip.

 

google a.i.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-12 16:02:112023-05-31 18:29:07Google Enters the A.I. Game
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - May 12, 2023

Tech Letter

“Failure can teach you something, and as long as you're moving very, very quickly, you're going to start piling up the wins. Speed gives you the luxury to be able to fail.” – Said Current CEO of Uber Dara Khosrowshahi

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dara.png 325 347 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-12 16:00:042023-05-12 18:25:50Quote of the Day - May 12, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 10, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 10, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FRONT RUN THE LITHIUM PIVOT)
(LIT), (MVST), (LICY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-10 15:04:352023-05-10 20:05:59May 10, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Front-Run the Lithium Pivot

Tech Letter

I remembered the moniker data was the new oil and there is a salient argument that still holds true, especially with software companies.

However, the CEO of Tesla Elon Musk has something to say about that when he described lithium batteries as the new oil.

Musk said that as he was hyping up a new lithium-ion factory Tesla intends to construct in Corpus Christi, Texas.

The EV leader plans on a $375 million facility so it can produce more domestic battery-grade lithium than the rest of North America is currently capable of.

Given lithium is a key component of the batteries that power Tesla’s cars, and EVs are set to gain widespread adoption over the coming years, Tesla is obviously an outsized winner here.  

Here are two other companies that could participate in the lithium gains as well:

Microvast Holdings (MVST)

The company’s advanced battery solutions are designed to power a wide range of electric vehicles, from small passenger cars to heavy-duty trucks and buses.

The stock is up around 50% today after yesterday’s earnings.

The companies delivered better-than-expected results and announced record-breaking backlogs of delivery orders.

Sitting at $2 per share, it’s still cheap to jump in.

Li-Cycle Holdings (LICY)

Next is Canadian company Li-Cycle Holdings, a specialist in advanced lithium-ion battery resource recovery.

Essentially, the firm recycles lithium-ion batteries, reintroducing the materials back into the supply chain, and the proprietary tech is designed to recover up to 95% of the materials used in the battery manufacturing process, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other valuable metals.

Li-Cycle has also secured several partnerships with other companies, including Kion, Glencore, and Renewance.

The transportation and energy markets are evolving in unpredictable ways, but most prognosticators agree: no matter what happens, battery recycling will be crucial.

LICY still strikes me as an investable option in this segment; the company has a multi-year head start, as well as a growing list of strategic partners (including KION, a German multinational that manufactures 1.7 million forklifts per year).

Perhaps most importantly, a $375M loan from the Department of Energy helps de-risk Li-Cycle’s balance sheet, so unlike many asset-intensive peers in the battery supply chain, LICY should have no problem funding its expansion.

If readers want to take a broader approach to investing and reach for a basket of lithium-based exposure then one of the most popular ETFs providing exposure to lithium is the Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT).

It invests in the full lithium cycle, from mining and refining the metal, right through to battery production.

There are options for the reader because these small companies are highly speculative and aren’t a sure thing.

Going with LIT is a safer way to ride the lithium trend but by reducing risk by a great deal.

EVs aren’t going away anytime soon, and the heaps of policies introduced to the global economy mean that car manufacturers will be forced to pump out more EVs in the future.

 

 

lithium evs

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-10 15:02:292023-05-31 22:03:54Front-Run the Lithium Pivot
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - May 10, 2023

Tech Letter

"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge," said the late Professor Stephen Hawking.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/hawking-1.png 345 474 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-10 15:00:252023-05-10 20:08:12Quote of the Day - May 10, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 8, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 8, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(DON’T LET THESE 3 GET AWAY)
(SNOW), (WDAY), (NOW)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-08 15:04:332023-05-08 20:55:21May 8, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Don't Let These 3 Get Away

Tech Letter

Even though the tech market isn’t in a renaissance, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any good choices to park capital.

I’d like to bring readers' attention to 3 cloud stocks that still have some upside.

It’s true that tech stocks no longer go up in a straight line, that auto-pilot mindset blew up spectacularly in 2022 when tech stocks finally stopped defying gravity.

The 16% the Nasdaq has gained this year is somewhat due to the expectations of a rebound and better-than-expected earnings.

With that in mind, software still has legs and it would be a shame to not go where the value is in tech.

After the big 7 behemoths, there are some tech plays that readers need to target because workloads will migrate to the cloud over the next decade.

There has been a significant shift to the cloud in recent years from legacy on-premise workloads and infrastructure. Cloud computing allows organizations to rent rather than buy IT and other functions.

Given the cost savings, scalability, flexibility, productivity gains, and improved security features, it’s obvious why this shift is happening.

These advantages mean more workloads will continue moving to the cloud. SaaS growth stocks are expanding despite the current macro uncertainty.

IT service management giant ServiceNow (NOW) is one to slide into your black leather wallet.

The company is a leader in the cloud-based IT service management and digital workflow solutions sphere. Its software helps businesses streamline operations, automate workflows and improve customer experience.

NOW recently grew revenues by 24% year-over-year last quarter.

It reported a healthy 35% free cash flow margin, which ranks in the top quartile among SaaS growth stocks.

Another one to keep an eye on is Snowflake (SNOW).

Data migration to the cloud is a secular trend that will support growth for years. Snowflake is a cloud-based data warehousing, processing, and analytics company.

Their data platform provides businesses with a scalable and flexible service for managing their data. It enables organizations to store, analyze and share large amounts of data in real-time, helping them to make better decisions and improve their operations.

Over the last five years, it has reported a net revenue retention rate above 150%.

Its platform capabilities are critical for any enterprise, and it has been winning customers in various industries.

On March 1, they reported quarterly revenues of $589 million, a 53% year-over-year growth rate.

Just as impressive, the company announced a plan to return cash to shareholders through a $2 billion buyback.

Lastly, Workday (WDAY) is a cloud-based software company that provides businesses with human capital management, financial management, and analytics solutions.

The company’s cloud software helps businesses improve workforce management, financial management, and decision-making processes.

It counts many Fortune 500 companies as customers. The company hit the 10,000 customers milestone lately with revenue increasing 19.6% year-over-year.

The runway is long for WDAY with a total addressable market for this subsector at $73 billion, respectively. Considering that organizations will continue to modernize HR and finance operations, Workday is one of the top SaaS stocks to buy to play this trend.

 

cloud company

 

cloud company

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-08 15:02:282023-06-02 14:46:45Don't Let These 3 Get Away
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 5, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 5, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HIGHER FOR LONGER)
(AAPL), (JOBS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-05 15:04:312023-05-05 19:35:34May 5, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Higher for Longer

Tech Letter

Non-farm payroll matters.

The job numbers have serious consequences for the tech sector - the biggest being there will be no recession in 2023 because everybody has a job.

Not only does everyone have jobs, they are also getting double the wage gains the Fed forecasted at 0.5% annualized to 6% year over year.

The tech sector has gotten rid of many good-paying jobs, many of those jobs were fake jobs that were absorbed to hoard talent when rates were at 0%.

It’s interesting that many of these tech stocks have exploded to the upside upon announcing job cuts, meaning investors don’t view the cuts through the prism of lost revenue but rather increasing productivity and delivering added efficiency.

Now, the entire bond investing complex is waiting on a Fed cut, which is why as of yesterday, 4 quarter percent rate cuts were priced in.

Fast forward 1 day and Fed future pricing is now pricing in 3-quarter percent rate cuts as investors believe we will stay higher for longer.

Higher for longer is bad for tech shares.

This extinguishes any hope of reducing inflation in the medium term.

It could be that we only get 1-2 quarter-point rate cuts in 2023 if the bond market is correct.

The Nasdaq has performed exquisitely in 2023 gaining 15% so far amid a souring backdrop of shrinking margins, increasing interest rates, federal government mismanagement on an epic level, domestic banking contagion from regional banks, and geopolitical strife.

The not so bad – not so good situation in tech stocks has manifested itself in the best tech stock Apple, which reported earnings yesterday.

Apple’s earnings report validated what I am seeing in the data.

The report was nothing special but good enough to believe that tech will narrowly avoid a recession in 2023.

The balance sheet is so ironclad that Apple even initiated a stock buyback of $90 billion.

Not too shabby.

Granted, there are few that can wield a strong balance sheet in the ways CEO Tim Cook can, but that’s not taking anything away from him.

Apple also told us about the 975 million paying subscribers to their services and that’s 150 million more than one year ago.

The takeaway is that Apple has a highly loyal customer base that continues to drive its dollars into the ecosystem.

Customer retention is incredibly high because they deliver products customers want.

Even their flagship product the iPhone and its revenue was up 2% year over year and beat forecast by $2.5 billion coming in at $51.33 billion when overall revenue decreased year over year.

iPhone revenue is just over half of Apple’s revenue.

A recession data point would be one in which to expect negative growth from iPhone revenue, so low single digits are fine.

The bottom line is that the US economy added 253,000 jobs to the overall job market and the unemployment rate is defying gravity.

US consumers keep spending, spending, and spending more.

Tech has turned into a 7 stock market and generous shareholder returns.

I admit that 2% iPhone revenue growth isn’t eye-popping, but that is where we are at this point in a late economic cycle.

Squeeze the juice out of the iPhone before the next big pivot to the next technology.

Similar can be said about the job market, everyone is trying to make their last buck before this whole thing gets a reset with 0% Fed fund interest rates.

Many even wish that 0% rates were already here.

Tech stocks will grind up as investors will bid up tech stocks, because they believe the Fed will cut sooner than initially thought. We’ll go back to that narrative for better or worse.

 

 

jobs and tech

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-05 15:02:352023-06-06 23:46:42Higher for Longer
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 3, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 3, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ALGORITHMS TAKE OUT ED TECH)
(CHGG), (ZM), (NFT), (CHATGPT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-03 14:04:582023-05-03 15:22:13May 3, 2023
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