The Implications of Intel's Lost Apple Contract

There is plenty of turmoil in chip land these days.

Investors should not freak out, or worse, dump their Intel (INTC) shares on pain of death.

Take a deep breath ... and I'll explain why Intel is still a great stock into which you should dip your toes.

Apple (AAPL) reportedly plans to replace Intel processors in Mac computers with its own proprietary chips starting around 2020. It is useless for investors to prognosticate the worst-case scenario playing out because this announcement will not put Intel out of business.

This is not the first phase of the death of Intel and represents a fabulous entry point into a beacon of tech stability.

Apple started placing Intel CPUs into its MacBook Pro and iMac in 2006 and have enjoyed a fruitful relationship since then.

As technology mutates at lightning speed, Apple justifiably desires more control over its chip design to create the innovative end product it envisions and provide a smoother experience between mobile and desktop devices.

Intel's engineers cannot match the pace of Apple's chip improvements that use ARM-based processors, which Apple has stuck into devices using the iOS system, including the Apple Watch and the Apple TV.

Apple's latest gadgets are more powerful than its past Macs, and its future is better served by tailor-making its chip architecture for its devices.

Security will be bolstered by procuring more control over design construction.

Intel still boasts the world's most popular CPU chip line for laptops and desktop computers, and hyper-increasing global demand for silicon chips will fail to disrupt Intel's growth trajectory.

Remember that the CPU chip line is Intel's legacy business, and this lump of the operation will slowly fade away into oblivion anyway.

Apple's top-end computers will still use Intel's chips such as the iMac Pro and Mac Pro revision until they can transition to in-house chips.

This trend has staying power with Apple designing its own iPhone chips partially due to removing its heavy reliance on Qualcomm (QCOM). It also has locked horns in court for years adding tension to the relationship.

On a relative basis, iMacs are just a fragment of the overall laptop market at 7.3% during the fourth quarter of 2017.

Apple's announcement could shed $1.8 billion in annual gross profit from Intel's earnings.

Intel accumulated $62.8 billion in sales in 2017, and losing Apple's business is only a small hiccup in the bigger scheme of things.

In late 2017, Intel poached the former head of AMD's (AMD) graphics business to head up a new high-end graphics division.

Raja Koduri, the new chief architect and senior vice president of the newly formed Core and Visual Computing division at Intel, will enable the company to directly compete with AMD and Nvidia (NVDA) in the GPU market.

The competition with AMD is a big deal because AMD has caught up with Intel and could steal CPU market share.

AMD has built its own comprehensive lineup of PC CPU chips while Intel unveiled its eighth generation Core processors on April 3.

Acquiring new segments with its cash hoard is another way to move forward.

Rumors were rife with reports suggesting Intel would acquire Broadcom (AVGO) to create the biggest chip maker in the world.

This was a defensive maneuver to combat the possible combination of a Broadcom-Qualcomm merger that would damage Intel's market share in chips for mobile phones and cars.

By getting into bed with Broadcom, Intel could scrap the construction of the world's third-largest chipmaker, after Intel itself and Korea's Samsung.

Altera and Mobileye are companies Intel added to its lineup using its egregiously large cash hoard.

Mobileye, an Israeli company, provides advanced driver assistance software that prevents collisions. This purchase clearly bolsters its autonomous vehicle technology division.

Altera, a San Jose, Calif.-based company, manufactures integrated circuits.

Intel is likely to remain the dominant force at the very high end of computing.

It would be foolish to only analyze Intel based on its legacy business as it has veered into a different growth mode and is not just a chip company anymore.

Intel has been weaning itself from the secular downtrend of computer chips and strategically established an unmovable position in the massive cloud data center and server business.

The Data Center Group, Intel's second largest segment and most vital, grew 20% YOY, with $5.6 billion in revenue. Investors must keep close tabs on how this area performs because it is the lynchpin to emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and 5G in terms of overall infrastructure.

Intel's data center performance represents the harbinger of success, and Intel is doubling down on this future growth driver.

Cloud capital expenditures will rise 30 percent in 2018 because chunks of money must be thrown at this segment to stay relevant from cutthroat competition.

Computing is at an inflection point in 2018. Priorities have rotated to the data-centric phase of development. And Intel's CEO Brian Krzanich, who just received a nice pay rise to $21.5 million per year, will fill us in at Intel's next earnings call on April 26.

To visit Intel's website please click here.

 

 

 

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