What?s On Your Plate for This Week?
Friday?s blockbuster nonfarm payroll report certainly will give markets a positive spin coming out of the gate this week.
Some 287,000 jobs were added last month, dwarfing the disappointing 38,000 figure seen for May. The headline unemployment came in at a decade low 4.9%.
With flip-flopping, on again, off again statistics like these, traders? lives have been made as hellacious as ever.
We should expect another low volume week of summer trading. However, price action may be extreme as traders and investors struggle to digest the implications of the post Brexit world.
I don?t belief Brexit will take place, but we may not know for sure for 3 months to a year. There won?t be a sudden, market-moving announcement, just a rising tide of legal and popular challenges that erode the likelihood that Britain will permanently leave the EC.
My bet is that stocks (SPY) make a few more feeble stabs at an upside breakout that fail, leading to yet another ferocious 5%-10% correction this summer. That is where you load the boat for a yearend rally.
Volatility (VIX), (VXX) will remain high. Trade the $14-$24 range.
That will lay the groundwork for Treasury bonds (TLT) to reach even more lofty highs. A sub 1.30% yield is within range.
Gold (GLD) will remain strong, silver (SLV) stronger.? The Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS), will stay frustratingly high, at least until the Bank of Japan acts, which could be any day.
The Euro (FXE), (EUO) will keep meandering as long as an economic dark cloud hangs over its head. The British pound (FXB) should break to new lows.
Oil will remain confused and indifferent as a structural 2 million barrel a day over supply is battered by temporary supply disruptions throughout the Middle East.
Peace in Libya among warring factions, now being negotiated, could bring a sudden oil price collapse.
The Ags will try to bottom again. But with the sun shining and the greenback strong, I am not holding my breath.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis president, noted centrist James Bullard, speaks a couple of times this week, and may indirectly confirm that the Fed intends to sit on its hands with it's interest rate policy for the foreseeable future.
The JOLTS report will come out at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday and should confirm a level of job offerings consistent with a robust economy.
The Mortgage Applications report we get at 7:00 AM EST on Wednesday will give us the first peak at how the new ultra low interest rates triggered by Brexit are impacting home borrowing. My bet is that they are way up.
The most useless report this week will be the Fed?s Beige Book Minutes out at 2:00 PM EST Wednesday, as whatever conclusions that were reached were rendered moot in this post Brexit world.
The Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday will confirm that unemployment remains close to a four decade low.
The finale for significant data releases for the week will be the Baker Hughes Rig Count out at 1:00 PM EST. This one is anyone?s guess.
With the Republican Convention only a week away, expect political distractions to ramp up. The Cleveland city fathers are nervous as hell. The Democrats will go silent, letting the Republicans hoist themselves on their own petard.
As for me, I will be moving my base of operations from Dubrovnik, on the Eastern Adriatic coast, to Zermatt, high in the Swiss Alps, where the WIFI is much better.
I?ll be making a pit stop in Florence, Italy to catch the ?Birth of Venus? at the Uffizi Gallery and the Statue of David at the Accademia.
