It's time we talk about Amgen (AMGN), that biotech giant that's been acting more like a sleepy bear than the roaring lion it once was.
Don't get me wrong. I've got a soft spot for Amgen. Having personally witnessed the struggles of cancer survivors who sampled their wares, I can tell you their stuff works. It's like rocket fuel for your immune system.
But as an investor? Well, that's where things get messy.
Amgen's definitely no slouch. It's the 5th largest component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
For us dinosaurs who still think the Dow matters (guilty as charged), that's like being the biggest, baddest T-Rex in Jurassic Park. But we all know how that movie ended, don't we?
In the S&P 500 jungle, Amgen's the 40th largest beast and the 9th largest in the healthcare sector. Impressive, sure, but so was the Titanic before it met that iceberg.
Amgen’s work in therapeutics, from Epogen and Aranesp boosting red blood cell counts to Neupogen and Neulasta enhancing immune systems, makes it indispensable in the healthcare sector.
Still, I have to dig deeper. Amgen’s profitability is stellar, boasting an A+ grade, which checks a significant box in my evaluation criteria.
However, the valuation, growth, and momentum reveal a picture that’s less rosy. Amgen isn’t the growth powerhouse it once was compared to its sector peers like AbbVie (ABBV) and Gilead Sciences (GILD), and its valuation is teetering on the edge of extravagant. The price has surged, rendering it "overvalued."
Even when considering its price-to-sales ratio—a favorite metric of mine—Amgen is near its 10-year peak at 6x sales.
That's not just expensive – it's "I'll have what they're having" territory. Sure, lots of big stocks are trading at nosebleed levels, especially in tech. But just because everyone's jumping off the valuation cliff doesn't mean we should join the lemming parade.
Now, everyone knows I’m a dividend junkie. I like my yields high and my risks low. It's a bit like my approach to mountain climbing—I want the view, but I'd rather not plummet to my doom getting there.
At first glance, Amgen looks tempting. The dividend is safe, consistent, and growing. But context is key.
The healthcare sector, using the XLV ETF as a proxy, yields only 1.5%. Amgen's 2.66% yield beats that handily, but it's toward the low end of its 7-year range.
To make it worthwhile as a long-term holding, Amgen would need to offer a yield in the 3.2%-3.5% range and demonstrate a clear bottoming pattern in its stock price. We're not there yet, folks.
Next, let’s talk charts. Looking at its stock price, if this were an EKG, we'd be calling a code blue.
Amgen’s chart shows a stock struggling to breach its trendline, with two potential target zones below the current price that it might hit.
While anything is possible in investing, I see those lower price areas as more likely than Amgen soaring 15% to fresh highs.
Could Amgen surprise us all and rocket up 15%? Sure, and I could win "Dancing with the Stars." Anything's possible, but I wouldn't bet my last dollar on either.
But here’s the kicker—Amgen's not alone in this boat. The whole market seems to have decided to party like it's 1999, forgetting that what goes up must come down. When it does, it'll be faster than my descent from 90,000 feet in that MiG.
Still, I'm not saying Amgen's destined for the biotech graveyard. At this point, it's not a "never buy," but a "not at this price."
I like to think of it as a hibernating bear. When that yield creeps up and the price comes down, it might be time to poke it with a stick.
If it stretches and growls with renewed vigor, you’ll want to be ready to jump in. Until then, let’s enjoy the show from a safe distance.
