The Yearend Melt Up Has Started!
Any doubts that my bullish call on global risk markets would play out as promised were blown away on Friday.
That was when the central banks of China and Europe delivered a surprise, one two punch of monetary stimulus for their own troubled economies. The quantitative easing baton has successful been passed from America?s Federal Reserve to central bankers abroad.
The net net for you and I is that stocks and the dollar will continue to appreciate.
Specifically, China came out of the blue with a 0.4% interest rate cut, thus stimulating the world?s largest emerging market.
Then the European Central Bank?s president, Mario Draghi, said he would take whatever steps necessary to return the continent to a 2% inflation rate, up from today?s 0.40%. Unbelievably, Spanish ten-year bond yield fell below 2% in a heartbeat and German ten year funds pierced 0.80%.
For good measure, the Japanese central bank then chimed in, boosting the country?s money supply growth by 33% as promised earlier. Saying is one thing, but doing it is much better, especially when it carries a radical tinge.
The measures make my 2,100 target for the S&P 500 by the end of December a pretty safe bet. Look for a tedious, prolonged sideways grind, followed by rapid headline driven pop. Easy entry points will be few.
It really is one of those ?Close your eyes and buy? type of markets. I doubt we get pullback of less than 3% in the major indexes this year. Volatility will remain muted. All the black swans of landed.
It gets better.
This kind of market action could continue for another three years. After the ?Great Recession?, we are now witnessing the ?Great Recovery?. That means returning to a 3% or better GDP growth rate and 10% annual corporate earnings increases.
Add in 2% a year in dividend yields, and you get a (SPY) that rises by 10% a year. Look at the 100-year average gain for stocks and it comes in remarkably close to this number. Factor in an earnings multiple increase from the current 16, and they will rise faster.
This is all Goldilocks on steroids. Interest rates, the cost of labor, energy, and commodity price inputs stay low, earnings rise, and everybody else in the world sends their money here because it is the best bet going.
I all works for me, and I hope, you too!
