November 26, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 26, 2008 Featured trades: (HCBK), (BRK/A), (WB) 1) The relentless drumbeat of dire economic data continues. October consumer spending was down 1%. Durable goods shrank by 6.2%, the lowest since 9/11. Sales of single family homes  collapsed, -5.3%, a 17 year low. Will the last person leaving the stock market please turn the lights … [Read more...]

November 25, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 25, 2008 Featured trades: (GE), (FSLR), (SPWRA), (CCC) 1) The Fed announced the bail out package du jour, $200 billion for Asset Banked Securities for car loans, credit cards and student loans. They are using a ten to one debt to equity formula, which is absolutely the most efficient use of federal funds. The US government is rapidly … [Read more...]

November 24, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 24, 2008 Featured trades: (C), (GS), (MS), (NVDA), (GLW), (BRCM) 1) OK, so it was a tough week! Quit whining! Wipe you nose and get back out there and put some trades on! No one ever said this was going to be easy. If it was, your cleaning lady would be running a hedge fund for minimum wage, for cash payments only. After a Marine crashes, … [Read more...]

November 21, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 21, 2008 Featured trades: (GS), (GOOG) 1) The Cassandras had a field day yesterday after the decisive break of the 2002 low in the Dow at 7,700, hitting the lowest level since 1997. It seems they were competing with each other to see how dire their downside targets could get. 7,000, 6,000, 4,000, 2000? The market seems to be discounting a … [Read more...]

November 20, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 20, 2008 Featured trades: (VNO), (MSW), (SPG), (GM) 1) Weekly jobless claims soared by 27,000 to 542,000, the highest since 1992. Unemployment appears to be going parabolic. It is clear that the consumer rolled over and died in October, and talk is now rife of deflation. All Treasury instruments exploded to the upside, and are at maximum … [Read more...]

November 19, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 19, 2008 Featured trades: (MSFT), (ORCL), (SY), (INTU), (PLD) 1) October housing starts came in at a shocking minus -4.5%, a 791,000 annualized rate, 409,000 below the replacement rate. Huge disruptions in the classical economic data by the credit freeze are ongoing, and will continue for the next couple of months. October CPI fell to … [Read more...]

November 18, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 18, 2008 Special Russia Edition Highlighted Trades: ($RTSI), (YHOO), (BUD) 1) October retail sales came in at -2.8%, the biggest decline on record. The Producer Price Index plunged by 2.8%, up 5.2% YOY. Inflation is doing a disappearing act. The market was ready for another swan dive, but then was spared by Hewlett Packard (HP) … [Read more...]

November 17, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 17, 2008 Special wine edition. 5 page issue today. Highlighted Trades: (GM), (STZ), (FO), (DEO), (SPX) 1) Expect to hear a lot of hand ringing about the auto industry this week. Its representatives want us to believe that 10% of all the jobs, and 20% of retail sales are somehow car related, and the destruction of the industry would … [Read more...]

November 14, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 14, 2008 Highlighted Trades: (SPY), (LSBRX), (COP), (WMT) 1) Yesterday we did a month's worth of trading in two hours. The VIX went from 60% to 70%, then back down to 57%. If you have any doubts about what this market is doing, take a look at this chart, which shows the S&P 500 trading in a clearly defined 815-1000 box. 2) … [Read more...]

November 13, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 13, 2008 1) Weekly jobless claims came in at 516,000, a new seven year high. Oil imports have dropped from 11 million barrels/day to 8.8 million b/d. Because of the huge price drop the cost of these imports has fallen from $1 billion/day to only $500 million/day since July, causing the US trade deficit to shrink at a dramatic rate. This … [Read more...]

November 12, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 12, 2008 Special Crude Oil Issue 1) A number of big hedge funds are starting to circle around $50 as a place to get involved on the long side with crude. Hundreds of companies faced a near death experience with crude at $148, where no business model was profitable. This time around they are going to be hedging their fuel needs for the … [Read more...]

November 11, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 11, 2008 Highlighted stocks: (WPPGY), (FNM), (JPM), (GM) 1) Once again, buying the dips and selling the rips works. If you sold the S&P mini 830 puts on Friday at $20 and bought them back yesterday at $5, you could then resell them again today for $20. This time they only have seven trading days to expiration. Not that I want to do … [Read more...]

November 10, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 10, 2008 1) Today it was all about China, which announced a massive $586 billion stimulus package. On a GDP adjusted basis, this is like the US spending $3.3 trillion. The scary thing is that China believes that it has to stimulate an economy with an official growth rate of 8%. Asian stock markets soared, and there was a huge move up in … [Read more...]

November 7, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 7, 2008 1) The dreaded October non farm payroll came in at minus -240,000, much worse than expected. The unemployment rate soared from 6.1% to 6.5%, a 14 year high. These figures included the Boeing strike and the full brunt of the credit freeze. We have lost 1.2 million jobs in the first ten months of this year. Despite this depressing … [Read more...]

November 6, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 6, 2008 1) The Obama hangover hits. Any doubts we are stuck in an 8,000-10,000 range for the Dow for the foreseeable future were washed away with the 1,000 point sell off in the Dow from yesterday's high. Reality is such a bitch! It didn't help that Cisco's John Chambers said that conditions were the worst that he had seen in … [Read more...]

November 5, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 5, 2008 Special Gold Issue Featured Trades: ($GOLD) 1) Last year, South Africa suffered its steepest decline in gold production since 1901, falling 14%, to a mere 232 tons. It now ranks only third in global production of the yellow metal, after China and the US. Severe electricity rationing, a shortage of skilled workers, and more … [Read more...]

November 4, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 4, 2008 1) It all comes down to the Senate today. If the Democrats win 60 seats they will have a supermajority that will give Obama a blank check. Less than that, the republicans can fight a bitter rear guard action with a filibuster. Our first read will come with the early results from battleground state Virginia that closes its polls … [Read more...]

November 3, 2008

Global Market Comments for November 3, 2008 1) First quiet day in the markets in two months. All is now on hold until after the election. An Obama win is already priced into the market, but the makeup of the House and Senate is not. McCain needs to pull an inside royal flush to win. LIBOR fell 45 bp last week and another 17 bp today down to 3.02%, meaning help is on the … [Read more...]