January 30, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 30, 2009 Featured Trades: (AMZN), (GOLD), (AEM) 1) Q4 GDP came in at -3.8%, the worst in 26 years. The only buyer right now is the Federal government. What private spending there is can be found online. Amazon (AMZN) announced December sales up 18% YOY, sparking a 14% jump in the stock. This also shows the consumer preference for … [Read more...]

January 29, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 29, 2009 Featured Trades: (GOLD), (AEM), (TBT), (HYG), (PHB), (NS) 1) December new home sales fell to a stunning 331,000, 100,000 less than the most dire forecasts.  Average monthly home sales for 2008 were the worst since 1982. Homebuilders are getting absolutely killed by competition from foreclosures. Every real estate indicator is in … [Read more...]

January 28, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 28, 2009 Featured Trades: (TM), (GM), (GDX), ($GOLD), (ABX), (NEM) 1) The Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, at close to zero. Like they were really going to make them negative? All they can do now is to accelerate quantitative easing measures by buying boatloads of home mortgage, credit card, car loan, and student loan backed … [Read more...]

January 27, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 27, 2009 Featured Trades: (CAT), (CCTYQ) 1) The performance of heavy equipment maker Caterpillar (CAT) is one of the best leading global economic indicators out there. Poor earnings have taken the stock behind the woodshed for a severe whipping, taking down from $85 to $32. So when CEO Jim Owens says that 2009 will be the company's … [Read more...]

January 26, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 26, 2009 Featured Trades: (GOOG), (AOL), (MSFT), (YHOO), (T), (VZ), (W), (DBA), (FNM) 1) It was the weekend of the big layoff, with 70,000 getting pink slips globally. Key infrastructure and emerging market player Caterpillar chopped 20,000, followed by Intel, Pfizer, Home Depot, Microsoft, and yes, even Apple. You can count on these … [Read more...]

January 23, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 23, 2009 Special Gold Issue Featured Trades: ($GOLD) 1) Last year, South Africa suffered its steepest decline in gold production since 1901, falling 14%, to a mere 232 tons. It now ranks only third in global production of the yellow metal, after China and the US. Severe electricity rationing, a shortage of skilled workers, and more … [Read more...]

January 22, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 22, 2009 Featured Trades: (MSFT) 1) Today was the day of the Microsoft shock, with disappointing earnings and a layoff of 5,000. Too bad their principal product, Vista, never worked. There was a slew of economic data today, all bad. Weekly jobless claims exploded upward by 62,000 to 589,000, taking continuing claims up to 4.6 million, a 26 … [Read more...]

January 21, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 21, 2009 Featured Trades: ($BKX), (BAC), (WFC), (JPM), (PWR), (C) 1) The final numbers are in. The S&P 500 fell 42%, from 1,400 to 810, during the eight years of the Bush administration. The dollar fell 41% against the euro, from $0.92 to $1.30. A European investing in US stocks lost 59% of his capital, while a Japanese lost 56%. One … [Read more...]

January 20, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 20, 2009 Inauguration Day Featured Trades: (C), 1) We are now officially on Obama's watch. Like a young child crying out for attention, the stock market delivered its worst ever inauguration day performance, with the Dow down 332. Here's what he is facing: 1 collapsed financial system 2 wars 11 million unemployed 46 million … [Read more...]

January 16, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 16, 2009 Featured Trades: ($GOLD), (GM) 1) Captain 'Sully' Sullenberger of US Air's flight 1549 did an unbelievable job landing his Airbus 320 on the Hudson River yesterday. As a pilot who had flown across the Atlantic and across the English Channel hundreds of times, I have spent a lot of time contemplating ditching. In flight … [Read more...]

January 15, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 15, 2009 Featured Trades: (BAC), (XEU) 1) By the time Bank of America (BAC) waded through the incredible opaque balance sheet of newly acquired Merrill Lynch, they had turned green around the gills. The toxic assets they stumbled on to put the Love Canal to shame. Only more TARP money on top of the $25 billion they have already taken can … [Read more...]

January 14, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 14, 2009 Featured Trades (C), 1) The financial supermarket is an idea whose time has clearly gone, as we learn that it was just a strategy to lose more money, in more exotic places, in more exciting ways. The sale of Citibank's (C) crown jewels at fire sale prices, like the deal with Morgan Stanley for Smith Barney, just to get enough … [Read more...]

January 13, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 13, 2009 Featured Trades: (PTEN) 1) The 'all clear' signal given by the markets last week has been cancelled. All of the 'feel good' trades, like stronger crude, gold, commodities, and Dow, have all viciously reversed in lockstep. The 'feel bad' trades like a stronger yen, euro yen, and Treasuries have once again … [Read more...]

January 12, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 12, 2009 Featured Trades: (FLS) 1) If you had any doubt where the next equity play is going to be, take a look at the chart below, which I lifted from The Economist. It shows that by the end of this year, 80% of GDP growth will be generated by emerging economies, while only 20% will come from developed ones. Time to brush up on your … [Read more...]

January 9, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 9, 2009 Featured Trades: (NUE), (WMT), (AMTD), (SWIM), (SCHW) 1) The December nonfarm payroll came in at 524,000, taking the unemployment rate up to a 26 year high of 7.2%. At least the Labor Dept. didn't post a job loss of a million, as the Cassandras had predicted. More than 11 million Americans are now out of work. Some 2.6 million … [Read more...]

January 8, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 8, 2009 Featured Trades: (TRN), (JEC), (WTIC) 1) It is still possible to buy stocks on the cheap that will benefit greatly from the massive public works projects Obama is about to unleash. Trinity Industries (TRN), a major provider of concrete and aggregates with a presence in construction and rail cars, recently dropped 80%. It is now … [Read more...]

January 7, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 7, 2009 Featured Trades: (AA), (FSLR) 1) The market came back to Earth today, the Dow suffering the first down day of 2009. The guilty characters could populate one of those Agatha Christie mysteries where everyone did it except the butler. Take your pick: an ADP report showing 693,000 job losses, stunning crude inventory figures, bad … [Read more...]

January 6, 2009

Global Market Comments for January 6, 2009 Featured Trades: ($TYX), (X), (NUE), (WMT), (MCD) 1) The markets are signaling that the credit crisis is over, and that it is now safe to come out of your bunker. The 30 year Treasury has collapsed ten points in the last week, taking yields from 2.60% back over 3.15%. Corporate bonds of every grade and maturity have rallied hard, … [Read more...]

January 5, 2009

Annual Asset Class Review January 5, 2009 Featured Trades: (VIX), ($BVSP), (RSX), ($BSE), (FXI), ($KOSPI), (TBT), (JNK), (PHB), (HYG), (COPPER),(FCX), (CHK), ($XEU) After the annus horriblus of 2008, I thought it would be a good time to review the major asset classes and suggest reallocations. Equities: UP The collapse of the volatility index (VIX) is … [Read more...]