March 31, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 31, 2009 Featured Trades: (EBAY), (AAPL), (T), (VZ) 1) The migration of American business to online formats is accelerating, with over 1,000 new business being created every day. Internet advertising continues to go from strength to strength, and is one of the few growth sectors of the economy. The Interactive Advertising Bureau reported … [Read more...]

March 30, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 30, 2009 Featured Trades: (FCX), (CRUDE), (NG) 1)    Call me an optimist, but I am starting to see crocuses of economic recovery busting out all over. Long side traders now have a spring in their step after a 23% rise in the Dow in three weeks, the best move since 1938. If it is true that the stock market anticipates moves in the real … [Read more...]

March 27, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 27, 2009 Featured Trades: (SCHW), (AMTD), (IYR), (BPO) 1) Once thought an extinct species, the retail stock investor is back with a vengeance. It only took a 23% rally, the best since 1938, to do it. Trading volumes are up 15%-20%. It's time to take a look at the online brokerage stocks, which have been on a tear. These are pure … [Read more...]

March 26, 2009

Global Market Comments March 26, 2009 Featured Trades: (EEM) 1) There is an easier, cheaper, and faster way to solve the banking crisis which no one is talking about on Capitol Hill.  If collateralized debt obligations (CDO's) are the problem, just get rid of them! Desecuritize them! Just convert them back into the underlying loans. There are $1.4 trillion in … [Read more...]

March 25, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 25, 2009 Featured Trades: (TM), (EBAY), (FUJI TV), (GS) 1) Now that traders are partying again on Wall Street, we have to ask, what will take the punch bowl away? The unemployment rate shooting over 10%, which could happen in April or May, would be my first pick. Losses on option ARM loans could accelerate, taking out a few dozen more … [Read more...]

March 24, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 24, 2009 Featured Trades: (COPPER) 1) 'I said a few months ago that Washington was all in. We are now all in squared. The FDIC, Fed, and the Treasury are making a concerted effort to turn deflationary swamp water in inflationary wine.'  Ah, Paul McCulley, man of Virginia, you have such a way with words. PIMCO must love you. I … [Read more...]

March 23, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 23, 2009 Featured Trades: (BAC), (JAVA), (MSFT), (IBM), (NTAP), (SNDK), (EMC), (CTXS), (CRUDE), (GOLD), (TM), (HONDA) 1) I'm sorry I'm late getting my comments out today, but I had to get my application in to manage the Treasury's latest $1 trillion bailout program. They're due April 10, and I wanted to get mine in ahead of … [Read more...]

March 20, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 20, 2009 Featured Trades: (GE) 1) I thought President Obama did a pretty good job with comedian Jay Leno last night. With some pundits already pronouncing his administration a failure, he has the moxie to appear on a late night talk show. For the last eight years, presidential visits to California have been about as frequent as Bigfoot … [Read more...]

March 19, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 19, 2009 Featured Trades: (C), (GE), (USO), (TBT) 1) Way to go Ben! If pouring gasoline on the fire doesn't work, try nitroglycerine! Some $1.2 trillion in new agency and bond purchases, including previously untoucheable long term treasury bonds. Goodbye dollar, hello 4% home mortgage rates. Just tack on another 3% to the 2010 … [Read more...]

March 18, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 18, 2009 Featured Trades: (XLF), (XLY), (RLX), (HGX), (HD) 1) The quality of this rally is convincing some investors that this could be the big one. After financials (XLF), which are having an obvious dead cat bounce, the leaders of the past week have been the sectors that led into this recession, like consumer discretionaries (XLY), … [Read more...]

March 17, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 17, 2009 Featured Trades: (REAL ESTATE) 1) I am more convinced than ever that real estate has another 25% to fall, and best case, it is dead money for another five to ten years. The New York Times produced some insightful data on inflation adjusted home prices for the last 120 years, which baselines at a $100,000 for a single family home … [Read more...]

March 16, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 16, 2009 Featured Trades: (CHINA), (BAC), (C) 1) Fed chairman Ben Bernanke did a great interview with CBS 60 Minutes last night. It's nice to know that the recession 'might' end this year. He ruled out the big banks going to zero, which is great news for Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C). This should support global stock … [Read more...]

March 13, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 13, 2009 Featured Trades: ($USD), (DOLLAR) 1) I ran into governor Arnold Schwarzenegger at the men's bathroom at San Francisco's Mark Hopkins yesterday, much to the distress of his posse of ex Marine bodyguards. He was there to take credit for hammering together a compromise solution to his state's $42 billion budget fiasco in … [Read more...]

March 12, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 12, 2009 Featured Trades: (TBT) 1) Forbes Magazine has published its annual list of the 400 wealthiest, and the carnage has been awesome. The net worth of the elite club has shrunk from $4.4 trillion to $2.4 trillion, with the average dropping from $3.9 billion to $3 billion. Bill Gates, worth $40 billion, jumps back up to the number one … [Read more...]

March 11, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 11, 2009 Featured Trades: (GOLD) 1) Noted international monetary economist Judy Shelton believes the US should return to at least a partial gold standard to help damp volatility in the $4.4 trillion a day foreign exchange market to hasten an economic recovery. The current 'dirty float' system, where a free market is subject to … [Read more...]

March 10, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 10, 2009 Featured Trades: (GE), (ABX), (SPX), (WTIC), (OIL) 1) It only took a few dew drops of good news for the Dow to recover from its near death experience and rocket 350 points. The 'I love America trades' of long bonds and Treasuries came back with a vengeance. The 'short America trades' were last seen running down the … [Read more...]

March 9, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 9, 2009 Featured Trades: (COPPER), (XLF), (FCX), (WTIC), (JPM), (WFC), (GS), (BAC), (C) 1) Traders looking for the Next Big Play are keeping a laser like focus on two key commodities. Chinese stockpiling prompted copper to break out of its recent trading range to the upside to $1.70, taking lead producer Freeport McMoran (FCX) up 30% on the … [Read more...]

March 6, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 6, 2009 Featured Trades: (GE), (C), (FXI),(BIDU), (SOHU), (NTES) 1) February nonfarm payroll came in at -651,000, taking the unemployment rate up to 8.1%, a 25 year high. The unemployment rate in California is now well over 10%. There were huge revisions up in the December and January figures. Remember when the market used to have a heart … [Read more...]

March 5, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 5, 2009 Featured Trades: (GE), ($XEU), (GOOG) 1) Q4 European GDP came in at -1.5%. Consumer spending registered the sharpest fall on record, while exports fell off a cliff, the victim of a relentless shrinking of globalization. The euro ($XEU), down to $1.2450, is flirting with a new four year low. The continent continues to pay the price … [Read more...]

March 4, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 4, 2009 Featured Trades: (SILVER), (GOLD) 1) The February ADP employment report showed a loss of 697,000 jobs. Since we are probably in a minus 6% GDP quarter, expect these numbers to remain grisly for months to come. Watch for the Labor Department's nonfarm payroll on Friday, which will be a blockbuster. Rumors of another China stimulus … [Read more...]

March 3, 2009

Global Market Comments for March 3, 2009 Featured Trades: (WFC), (JPM), (C), (BAC), (GOLD) 1) We're going to 6,000 in the Dow, then maybe 4,000. So argues Louise Yamada, one of the most respected long term technical analysts on Wall Street. The targets for the S&P 500 are 600 and 400. Let me reprint a comment I made on January 27, when the Dow was at 8,250, some … [Read more...]

March 2, 2009

Global Market Comments March 2, 2009 Featured Trades: (BAC), (GOLD), (POLAND), (CEE), (MSFT), (INTC), (ORCL), (CSCO), (BRK/A), (COP), (JNJ), (GS), (GE) 1) The US is turning into Europe. Think high taxes, high unemployment, more government involvement in everything, and much lower growth. That is the message the markets are telling us by retreating to the 6,000 … [Read more...]