July 29, 2010 – It’s Time to Revisit the TBT

Featured Trades: (TBT), (TMV) ProShares Ultra Short Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF Direxion Daily 30 Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares ETF   1) It's Time to Revisit the TBT. Shorting the world's most overvalued asset, the 30 year US Treasury bond, has got to be the big trade from here. The relentless whirring of the printing presses is so loud that they keep me awake at … [Read more...]

July 29, 2010 – The Technicla Case for the TBT

Featured Trades: (30 YEAR TREASURY BOND), (TBT) 2) The Technical Case for the TBT. Louise Yamada, one of the most widely followed technical analysts in the market, says the 29 year bull market in Treasury bonds is coming to a close. Looking at the 200 year history of interest rates in the US, such bull markets are historically 22-37 years in length, and this … [Read more...]

July 29, 2010 – Making a New Home for My Nissan Leaf

Featured Trades: (NISSAN LEAF), (NSANY), (PGE) 3) Making a New Home for My Nissan Leaf. The electrician from Nissan Motors (NSANY) showed up at my home today to ascertain if it can generate sufficient juice to recharge my new all electric Leaf, which will be delivered in December. The good news is that it does, but the town permits and the installation of a new 50 … [Read more...]

July 28, 2010 – Is “Snookie” our New Investment Guru?

Featured Trades: (RAIL TRAFFIC)   1) Is 'Snookie' our New Investment Guru? The ultra bears were sent packing in recent days, thanks to a spate of economic indicators showing some unexpected strength. Take a look at the chart below for rail car loadings showing an unequivocal spike upward. I warned last week that there was some positive action in this area (click … [Read more...]

July 28, 2010 – Raising the Red Flags on Commodity ETF’s

Featured Trades: (UNG), (USO), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB) United States Natural Gas Fund ETF United States Oil Fund ETF 2) Raising the Red Flags on Commodity ETF's. The July 26-August 1, 2010 print edition of  Business Week magazine put out a brilliant piece entitled 'Amber Waves of Pain'  detailing how retail investors are getting fleeced when playing the agricultural … [Read more...]

July 28, 2010 – Is it Time to Buy Google on the Cheap?

Featured Trades: (GOOGLE), (IBM), (MSFT), (YHOO), (BIDU) 3) Is it Time to Buy Google on the Cheap? As much as I adore Google products and use their search engine all day long, the stock definitely left something to be desired when it was trading in the $600'S. That's why I steered readers away with my piece 'Why I'm Not Buying Google on This Dip' (click here for the … [Read more...]

July 27, 2010 – It’s Harder Than it Looks

Featured Trades: (THE HARSH REALITIES OF TRADING) 3) It's Harder Than it Looks. A recent piece at the underground website, Zero Hedge, by one 'pivotfarm' resonated with me in explaining how hard it actually is making money in the market (click here for the link). It looks deceptively easy from the outside. You buy a share, watch it go up under its own power, and sell … [Read more...]

July 27, 2010 – Is Emerging Market Debt the New Prime Credit?

Featured Trades: (EMERGING MARKET DEBT), (PCY) Invesco PowerShares Emerging Market Sovereign Debt ETF 4) Is Emerging Market Debt the New Prime Credit? Last year, I suggested emerging market sovereign debt ETF's as safe, high yielding investments in which to hide out in case the equity markets swoon again. The stock market has looked pretty grizzly for the last three … [Read more...]

July 26, 2010 – Guess Who’s Bailing Out the 2012 Olympics?

Featured Trades: (2012 LONDON OLYMPICS) 2) Guess Who's Bailing Out the 2012 Olympics? Where is the 2012 London Olympics turning to meet gargantuan cost overruns? None other than BP, which is going the extra mile to burnish its tarnished image. With the British economy mired in a vicious financial crisis, many are wondering if hosting the games was such a great idea. … [Read more...]

July 26, 2010 – Where The Economist “Big Mac” Index Finds Currency Value

Featured Trades: (THE ECONOMIST 'BIG MAC' INDEX) 3) Where The Economist 'Big Mac' Index Finds Currency Value. My former employer, The Economist, once the ever tolerant editor of my flabby, disjointed, and juvenile prose (Thanks Peter and Marjorie), has just released its 'Big Mac' index of international currency valuations (click here for the link). Although initially … [Read more...]

July 22, 2010 – The New Deflation Definition

Featured Trades: (THE NEW DEFLATION) 2) The New Deflation Definition. It seems that all you hear about these days is deflation. That is certainly what the bond market is telling us, with my screen blaring at me a miserable 2.93% yield for the ten year Treasury bond. But there is a new definition for this economic malady that applies to us hapless consumers. In … [Read more...]

July 23, 2010 – Turkey Is On The Menu

Featured Trades: (TURKEY), (TUR), (TKC), (TURKISH LIRA) iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund ETF   1) Turkey Is On The Menu. The boarding of a Turkish ship by Israeli commandos and the international brouhaha that it sparked has thrown a searing spotlight on that emerging nation. Several hedge fund friends and now a few readers of this newsletter in … [Read more...]

July 23, 2010 – Hedge Fund Corners the Cocoa Market

Featured Trades: (FXI), (COCOA), (CHOCOLATE), (NIB) iPath Dow Jones-UBS Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN 2) Hedge Fund Corners the Cocoa Market. That Hershey bar you've been sneaking out to buy on breaks is about to cost you a lot more. London based Anthony Ward's Amajaro hedge fund built up a billion dollar long position in the cocoa futures market, which … [Read more...]

July 23, 2010 – What Will the World Look Like in 100 Years?

Featured Trades: (THE NEXT 100 YEARS) 3) What Will the World Look Like in 100 Years? George Friedman, geopolitical forecaster and founder of the Austin, Texas based private intelligence firm, Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor) (click here for the link at https://www.stratfor.com/ ), delivers a fascinating list of future political, military, and economic scenarios in … [Read more...]

July 22, 2010 – More on the Grains

Featured Trades: (POT), (MON)   4) More on the Grains. I managed to catch an interview with Charlie Rentschler at New York boutique investment bank, Morgan Joseph, one of the top agricultural analysts in the industry, known as the 'Farmer from Harvard.' He says that investment in the sector is a frustrating and unpredictable mix of bugs, weeds, and weather, … [Read more...]

July 21, 2010 – Amazon Conquers All With Kindle

Featured Trades: (AMZN), (KINDLE)   1)  Amazon Conquers All With the Kindle. I knew Jeff Bezos back in the eighties as this always cheerful quant in Morgan Stanley's bond department who had this incredibly annoying laugh.  He blew us all away when he took off on his own, used innovative technology to discover the immense profits to be found in long tale … [Read more...]

July 21, 2010 – Singapore Sizzles

Featured Trades: (SINGAPORE), (EWS) Singapore iShares ETF 2) Singapore Sizzles. I have always had a love/hate relationship with Singapore. During the seventies, the autocratic Prime Minister, Lee Kuan Yew, regularly locked up journalist friends of mine and banned magazines like The Economist that published my stories. The country is also notorious for public canings … [Read more...]

July 21, 2010 – The Hard Numbers About Obama’s Anti Business Campaign

Featured Trades:  (US ECONOMY), (BAC), (C), (MS), (ANTI BUSINESS OBAMA) 3) The Hard Numbers About Obama's Anti Business Campaign. I'm a numbers guy, OK? Give me a set of hard data, and I'm happy to draw my own conclusion. Save the argument, the persuasion, and the spin for someone else. You may have heard from the media lately that President Obama hates business, is … [Read more...]

July 20, 2010 – Ireland Points the Way for the Euro

Featured Trades: (FXE), (IRELAND) Currency Shares Euro Trust   1) Ireland Points the Way for the Euro. When you bend over backwards to kiss the magical stone at Ireland's Blarney castle, you can't help but notice a sign assuring you that your won't catch AIDS in your effort to obtain the gift of persuasion. However, the ancient stone is completely covered with … [Read more...]

July 20, 2010 – How we are Ten Years Into the Bear Market

Featured Trades: S&P Composite Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Total Returns 2) How we are Ten Years Into the Bear Market. As part of my never ending quest for truth, accuracy, and insight into the future direction of stock prices, I thought I'd pass on this chart from my friends at Business Insider showing that things are much worse than you think they are. It … [Read more...]

July 20, 2010 – Way to Go, Goldman!

Featured Trades: (GS)   3) Way to Go, Goldman! I am somewhat annoyed with the SEC's settlement with Goldman Sachs (GS) last week, as I was within a hair's breadth of putting out a buy recommendation. The stock hit a low of $130, but being the tightwad that I am, was holding out for $125. The deal was clearly a win-win for both sides, the announcement causing … [Read more...]

July 20, 2010 – China Can’t Boom Forever

Featured Trades: (FXI) iShares FTSE China 25 Index ETF 4) China Can't Boom Forever. Last week, China (FXI) announced that its first half GDP grew at a blistering 11.9% annualized rate, more than triple the growth seen here in the US. And this is how they're doing with central bank tightening in place! How long can this laudable performance last? Not … [Read more...]

July 19, 2010 – The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Interviews Jim Trippon of the China Stock Digest on Hedge Fund Radio

Featured Trades: (FXI), (WMT), (CMED), (MR), (PTR), (CHL), (CYB) iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan ETF 1) Exclusive Interview With Jim Trippon of the China Stock Digest on Hedge Fund Radio. Jim Trippon, of the China Stock Digest, says that investors better start scaling into China now, or risk missing the biggest economic … [Read more...]

July 19, 2010 – The Grains Are On Fire

Featured Trades: (SOYB), (CORN), (WEAT) Teucrium Agricultural Trust Corn Fund Teucrium Agricultural Trust Soybean Fund Teucrium Agricultural Trust Wheat Fund 2) The Grains Are On Fire. I bet I'm the only guy you know whose wedding was filmed by the KGB. My friend, the TASS correspondent, Yuri, shot the entire assembled foreign press at the event at The Foreign … [Read more...]

July 19, 2010 – Take the Money and Run from BP

Featured Trades: (BP) 3) Take the Money and Run from BP. If you followed my advice to buy BP at $29 on June 17 (click here for my piece), please sell it. It peaked at $40 yesterday. Take the easy money and run. I've never seen a better opportunity to buy the rumor and sell the news. The long awaited announcement that the April 22 blowout in the Gulf of Mexico was at … [Read more...]

July 16, 2010 – The Baltic Dry Index Versus Container Rates

Featured Trades: (BALTIC DRY INDEX), ($BDI), (CONTAINER RATES), (US RAIL TRAFFIC) 1) The Baltic Dry Index Versus Container Rates: Who to Believe? There is a ferocious debate underway among economists over which leading indicator to believe, the Baltic Dry Index, or international container shipping rates. The BDI, a measure of the cost of chartering bulk carriers … [Read more...]

July 16, 2010 – The “Frontier” Markets are Beckoning

Featured Trades: (FRONTIER MARKETS), (ECH), (TF), (EWJ), (EWS), (FXI) 2) The 'Frontier' Markets are Beckoning. A quick look at the world's top performing stock markets during the first half of 2010 will not exactly ring bells for many investors. Bangladesh came in tops with a 40.7% gain, followed by Sri Lanka (34.6%), and Venezuela (18%). You have to get down to … [Read more...]

July 16, 2010 – Serve Yourself a Piece of Yellow Cake

Featured Trades: (URANIUM), (CEI:FP), (PDN:AU), (CCJ) 3) Serve Yourself a Piece of Yellow Cake. Uranium traders have been stunned by a sudden Chinese effort to corner the supplies in an effort to fuel the world's most ambitious nuclear program. The once moribund market now suddenly sees buyers everywhere as the Chinese ramp up their purchases to 5,000 tonnes this year, … [Read more...]

July 16, 2010 – China Puts the Squeeze on Rare Earths

Featured Trades: (RARE EARTHS), (AVARF.PK), (GWMGF.PK), (RAREF.PK), (LYSCF) 4) China Puts the Squeeze on Rare Earths. China has further tightened the screws on the world's rare earths market by announcing new export quotas that are only half of those seen last year. China's Ministry of Commerce has limited 2010 second half shipments by its 32 licensed producers to … [Read more...]

July 15, 2010 – Technical Analyst Charles Nenner Shows Where to Play in a Bear Market

Featured Trades: (ING), (TM), (LEN), (CRB), (AA), (AGU), (IBM), (XOM), (COP), (BBY) 1) Technical Analyst Charles Nenner Shows Where to Play in a Bear Market. Yesterday, I was commiserating with my buddy, Charles Nenner, of the Charles Nenner Research Center in Amsterdam, about his team's miserable performance in the World Cup, which lost 0-1 in overtime after a … [Read more...]

July 15, 2010 – Why the World’s Worst Economy Has the Strongest Currency

Featured Trades: (FXJ), (YCS) Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust ETF ProSharesUltraShort Yen ETF 2) Why the World's Worst Economy Has the Strongest Currency. Global currency traders remain puzzled by the continuing strength of the yen (FXY), (YCS), which broke out of a ¥90- ¥95 range a few weeks ago and insists on levitating around the ¥87-¥89 area. Looking at the … [Read more...]

July 15, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'America has become a second rate power. It's fiscal and trade deficits are at nightmare proportions. In the days of the free market when our country was a top industrial power, there was accountability to the stockholder. The Carnegies, the Mellons, and the men who built this great empire made sure of it because it was their money at stake,' said Gordon Gecko … [Read more...]

July 13, 2010 – Why I’m Not Buying the US Stock Rally

Featured Trades: (SPX) S&P 500 SPDR's ETF 2) Why I'm Not Buying the US Stock Rally. Tempt me all you want, you seductive vixen, but I'm not buying into last week's 6% rally in the US stock market. You can whisper sweet nothings into my ear all you want about the trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines, the low PE multiples, and cash laden corporate balance … [Read more...]

July 13, 2010 – The Ultra Bull Argument for Gold

Featured Trades: (GOLD), (GLD) SPDR Gold Trust Shares ETF 3) The Ultra Bull Argument for Gold. I am constantly barraged with emails from gold bugs who passionately argue that their beloved metal is trading at a tiny fraction of its true value, and that the barbaric relic is really worth $5,000, $10,000, or even $50,000 an ounce (GLD). They claim the move in the … [Read more...]

July 13, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'I don't think the solution for Europe is going to end up being determined in the board rooms or the finance ministries of the EMU. I think it's going to be on the streets of Athens, Lisbon, Madrid, and elsewhere,' said former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. … [Read more...]

July 12, 2010 – The Grains Take Off

ANOTHER SPECIAL CHINA ISSUE Featured Trades: (SOYBEANS), (SOYBEAN MEAL), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB) Teucrium Agricultural Trust Corn Fund Teucrium Agricultural Trust Soybean Fund Teucrium Agricultural Trust Wheat Fund 3) The Grains Take Off. It turns out that perfection doesn't continue forever, after all. That was the bet I was more than happy to make three weeks … [Read more...]

July 12, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'We in the business of trying to judge risk significantly underestimated the extreme tail risk, the so called risk involved in very low probability events and what the consequences would be should they happen,' said former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. … [Read more...]

July 9, 2010 – Why I Still Hate Japan

Featured Trades: (JAPAN), (EWJ), (NIKKEI) Japan iShares ETF 1) Why I Still Hate Japan. Like watching an old friend who fell from the high life as a special bracket investment banker to a stumbling drunk, I can't help but pity Japan's beleaguered stock investors. Since peaking in 1989 at 39,800, they have been mired in a 20 year bear market, the longest in history, and … [Read more...]

July 9, 2010 – My Personal Leading Economic Indicator

Featured Trades: (AUTO SALES), (NISSAN), (NSANY), (HONDA), (HMC)   2) My Personal Leading Economic Indicator.  I just flew over one of my favorite leading economic indicators. Honda (HMC) and Nissan (NSANY) import millions of cars each year through their Benicia, California facilities, where they are loaded on to hundreds of rail cars for shipment to points … [Read more...]

July 9, 2010 – Kids Aren’t Worth What They Used to Be

Featured Trades: (DEMOGRAPHICS) 3) Kids Aren't Worth What They Used to Be. Until the 19th century, children used to provide income and security for their parents as they worked on the family farm. That dynamic continued when industrialization brought families into the cities and kids into the factories. Since then, children have been a great short. A hundred … [Read more...]

July 8, 2010 – What to do About Gold

(SPECIAL GOLD ISSUE) Featured Trades: (GOLD), (GLD), (UGL), (ABX), (RGLD), (AEM-TSX), (GBG), SPDR Gold Trust Shares ProShares Ultra Gold 2X ETF 1) What to do About Gold. Gold, gold, gold. What to do about gold? I get asked this question a dozen times a day, by some who have been long since the current move started more than a decade ago at $260, and others who … [Read more...]

July 8, 2010 – The Buyers Pour Into BP

(SPECIAL GOLD ISSUE) Featured Trades: (BP), (SPX) S&P 500 SPDR's ETF 4) The Buyers Pour Into BP. What has been one of the best performing stocks for the past week? Good old BP (BP), which clawed back an 18% pop off the bottom, a 13% gain from my 'buy' call at $29, against an 8% plunge in the stock market, giving you an impressive relative outperformance of  … [Read more...]

July 7, 2010 – No Ride on the Gravy Train Without an Engine

Featured Trades: (THE ENGINELESS ECONOMY) 1) No Ride on the Gravy Train Without An Engine. It is becoming increasingly clear that the US economy once again fell off a cliff in May. Commodity prices have dropped like a stone, the Baltic Dry Shipping Index has shriveled by 40%, and new home sales have fallen to the lowest levels since the Second Ice Age. These markets … [Read more...]

July 7, 2010 – The Top First Half ETF Performers

Featured Trades: (TOP COUNTRY ETF's), (GXG), (TF), (THD) Global X/InterBolsa FTSE Columbia 20 ETF Thai Capital Fund, Inc. iShares MSCI Thailand Investable Market Index ETF Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF 3) The Top First Half ETF Performers. A ranking of the top performing ETF's so far in this dreadful 2010 produces some strikingly familiar names to readers of … [Read more...]

July 6, 2010 – The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Interviews Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management on Hedge Fund Radio

Featured Trades: (ADRIAN DAY ON HEDGE FUND RADIO), (UDN), (CYB), (EWZ), (GFE), (EWS), (FCX), (CORN), (POT), (PHO), (AINV), (ARCC), PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish ETF Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan ETF Brazil iShares ETF Singapore iShares ETF SPDR Gold Trust Shares Tecrium Commodity Trust Corn ETF PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio ETF   1) Investing … [Read more...]

July 6, 2010 – Proof the Economy is Stalling

Featured Trades: (JUNE NONFARM PAYROLL) 2) Proof the Economy is Stalling. As a commercial pilot with 30 year's experience, I can tell you that there is no more sickening feeling than hearing your stall warning alarm during a takeoff. That is exactly what I was hearing Friday morning when the Department of Labor announced that June nonfarm payrolls fell by … [Read more...]

July 2, 2010 – Hedge Funds Are Getting Trimmed

Featured Trades: S&P 500 SPDR's ETF 2) Hedge Funds Are Getting Trimmed. Given the piss poor performance of hedge funds this year, you really have to ask yourself why you subscribed to a letter entitled The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Many funds have 'derisked', are nursing wounds on the sidelines, and only have paltry 1% returns to show for the year (click … [Read more...]

July 2, 2010 – Trade Deal Looks Great for Taiwan

Featured Trades: (EWT), (TWON) Taiwan IShares ETF IQ Taiwan Small Cap ETF 3) Trade Deal Looks Great for Taiwan. China has just signed a trade agreement with its rebellious, capitalist province, Taiwan, which has major long term implications for the rest of us. The deal has China chopping import duties on 500 goods from Taiwan worth $13.8 billion, while the errant … [Read more...]

July 1, 2010 – Tesla: Sell the Sizzle, Buy the Steak

Featured Trades: (TSLA), (ELON MUSK)   1) Tesla: Sell the Sizzle, Then Buy the Steak. So far, the most successful thing Tesla Motors (TSLA) has done is sell stock. The IPO was an absolute blowout success, far and away the best this year, with book building at $14-$16, the size increased by 20%, pricing at $17, and then trading up to $30 on the second day, … [Read more...]

July 1, 2010 – What is the Bond Market Really Telling Us?

Featured Trades: (TREASURY BONDS), (TBT) ProShares Ultra Short Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF 2) What is the Bond Market Really Telling Us? Everywhere I turn these days, I hear a rising clamor and rancor to cut the spending that is creating deficits that will lead to the death of us all and destroy the lives of our grandchildren. CNBC reporter rick Santelli walked off … [Read more...]

July 1, 2010 – This Crop Could Be Your Big Winner This Year

Featured Trades: (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB) Teucrium Agricultural Trust Corn Fund Teucrium Agricultural Trust Soybean Fund Teucrium Agricultural Trust Wheat Fund Teucrium Agricultural Trust Sugar Fund 3) This Crop Could Be Your Big Winner This Year. Since the is an absolute dearth of things to do right here, I want to reiterate my call to buy soybean meal (click here … [Read more...]