Archive | March, 2012

Get Ready for the Next Golden Age

I believe that the global economy is setting up for a new golden age reminiscent of the one the United States enjoyed during the 1950’s, and which I still remember fondly. This is not some pie in the sky prediction. It simply assumes a continuation of existing trends in demographics, technology, and economics. The implications […]

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March 13, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“We got competing against cheap labor. What we didn’t get is competing against cheap genius, and that’s what we are doing now with china and India,” said Tom Friedman in his newest book, “That Used to Be Us.”

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Here Comes the Rolling Top

The S&P 500 is now at 1,370, and most strategist forecasts for 2012 hover around 1,400, plus or minus some spare change. So the next nine months are going to be incredibly boring. Or they won’t. Even in a bull market, one expects to see pullbacks of at least one third of the recent gain. […]

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A Different View of the US

My mother lives in Pakistan, my daughter in Greece, and I have a ski chalet in in Peru. What’s more, I have strategy luncheons planned for Australia, Thailand, and Turkey. At least these would be my conclusions after looking at a map prepared by my esteemed former employer, The Economist magazine, of the United States, […]

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March 12, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“The December, 1999 Green Book, the internal forecasting paper of the Federal Reserve, has a disclaimer which said “not to be used externally, and harmful if swallowed”, said president of the Dallas Fed, Richard Fisher.  

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More Economic Data Is Turning Mixed

We received another raft of data this morning confirming my suspicion that the economic data is slowly turning over from modestly positive to mixed. The Challenger, Grey, & Christmas report showed that there were 51,758 job cuts in February, down 3% from January. But the first two months of 2012 revealed that layoffs announced by […]

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When Sterilization is Not a Form of Birth Control

I received a flurry of inquires the other day when Ben Bernanke mention the word “sterilization” in his recent congressional testimony. And he wasn’t giving advice to the country’s wayward teenaged girls, either. Sterilization refers to a specific style of monetary policy. Sterilized policies seek to manipulate the money markets without changing the overall money […]

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March 9, 2012 – Quote of the Day

If you can pick up any emerging market with a multiple of less than 20, it is a great long term investment,” said professor Jeremy Siegel at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Business.

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Trade Alert- (VXX) March 8, 2012

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price.

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This Week, It’s All About Jobs

Don’t expect much market volatility until we get the February nonfarm payroll report on Friday at 8:30 EST. Consensus has them coming in at around 200,000. However, we may have just gotten a valuable preview to those figures. According to the Japanese broker, Nomura Securities, the ADP National Employment Report, a monthly analysis of the […]

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Take a Look at Cheniere Energy (LNG)

I am constantly asked if there are any ways investors can take advantage of the collapse of the natural gas market, where at $2.34/MBTU prices are plumbing decade lows. I have recently made good money buying puts on the ETF (UNG), but these are not for the faint of heart. They call this contract the […]

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March 8, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“We’ve had several false starts in this recovery. People jump on the train just before it runs off the tracks. You have to be wary about that,” said a well-known economist.

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The Reception That the Stars Fell Upon

My friend was having a hard time finding someone to attend a reception who was knowledgeable about financial markets, White House intrigue, international politics, and nuclear weapons. I asked who was coming. She said Reagan’s Treasury Secretary George Shultz, Clinton’s Defense Secretary William Perry, and Senate Armed Services Chairman Sam Nunn. I said I’d be […]

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March 7, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“We are about to do something terrible to you. We are going to deprive you of an enemy,” Soviet commentator, Georgi Arbitov, told Secretary of State George Schultz at the end of the cold war.

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Oil Isn’t What It Used to Be

Virtually every analyst has been puzzled by the seeming immunity of stock markets to soaring oil prices this year. In fact, stocks and crude have been tracking almost one to one on the upside. The charts below a friend at JP Morgan sent me a long way towards explaining this apparent dichotomy. The first shows […]

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