Archive | April, 2012

The QE3 Myth

The prospect of a runaway printing press at the Federal Reserve has been the overwhelming factor driving risk assets in 2012.  Being the sober, cautious guy that you all know me to be, I did not join the party. I tell people this is because if I lose all my money I am too old […]

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There Are No Gurus

If there was ever an argument that you should rely on independent newsletters for guidance about financial markets, such as The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, and not traditional brokerage houses, take a look at the chart below from JP Morgan. It shows that despite all of the reforms passed after the dotcom […]

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America’s Demographic Time Bomb

You can never underestimate the importance of demographics in shaping long term investment trends, so I thought I’d pass on these two highly instructive maps. The first shows a map of the world drawn in terms of the population of children, while the second illustrates the globe in terms of its 100 year olds. Notice […]

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April 11, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“The Bernanke put is still there, but it is far more out of the money that it was a few days ago,” said Doug Kass of hedge fund Seabreeze Partners.

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Trade Alert – (PHM) April 10, 2012

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price.

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Trade Alert – (IWM) April 10, 2012

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price.

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Looking for Shorting Opportunities Among the Homebuilders

As we continue flirting with a final top in equities for the year, I am stepping up my search for the best ways to participate on the downside. At the very top of the list are the homebuilders, one of the top performing sectors since the October, 2011 bottom. The performance of individual names has […]

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Testimonial

I just wanted to thank you for some great trades. Thanks to you, I was profitable on the (IWM) put trade and it certainly looks like the Apple credit spread will return a nice profit (the profit you defined). Your wisdom in the market has been a godsend to my portfolio and my family. You […]

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April 10, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“What we really have to do is get back to fundamentals, and for most Americans that means working for a living and not investing for a living.” said Tom Barrack, CEO of Colony Capital, and a former principal of the Bass Group.

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Payroll Bombshell Give Market Technicians Heart Attack

I am sitting here on Easter weekend sifting through pages and pages from the various technical programs I follow warning that the roof is about to cave in on the stock market. Friday’s nonfarm payroll bombshell was dropped right at a key, make or break level for the S&P 500 and the Dow Average. Hold […]

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Cross Asset Class Analysis Warned “RISK OFF” Was Coming

Last week saw a dramatic deterioration in the economic data that has been the foundation of the Great Bull Market of 2012. First, we read minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting suggesting that QE3 has been put on a back burner. Then the Department of Labor’s Friday nonfarm payroll report poured gasoline on the fire, […]

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Trolling for Short Sale Candidates at Market Tops

Fear of law suits prevents most analysts from publishing lists of short selling targets. But the GMI Ratings, Inc., a forensic accounting firm, regularly posts lists of public companies they believe may go bankrupt (see http://www.auditintegrity.com ). Many of their picks reflect the accelerating shift from the old economy to the new economy. With offices […]

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April 9, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“A statistical model built around a normal distribution when applied to markets can be a very dangerous thing,” said David Kelly of JP Morgan.

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Has Gold Had It?

With the Federal Reserve signaling yesterday that QE3 is off the table, many traders are now betting that the barbarous relic is about to take a prolonged vacation. Without a dividend or an interest yield in a world desperate for cash flow, the yellow metal suddenly doesn’t have so much to offer. Take away the […]

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Beating the Market With Demographics

Regular readers of this letter know that I rely on long term demographic trends to predict the direction of global financial markets. Let me approach this topic from a different angle, measuring the number of retirees a population must support versus the anticipated burden in 20 years, and its implications. I start with the basket […]

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