February 26, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Businessman Crossing the Finish Line

“Bull markets go everywhere from 1-2 years to five years after the Fed begins tightening. We’ve got a long way to go before we have to worry about bonds competing against stocks,” said Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School of Business … [Read more...]

An Evening With the Chinese Intelligence Service


I normally avoid the diplomatic circuit, as the few non committal comments and soggy appetizers I get aren’t worth the investment of time. But I jumped at the chance to celebrate the 62nd anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China with San Francisco consul general Gao Zhansheng.   Happy Birthday China!   When I casually mention that I … [Read more...]

The Great Race for Battery Technology


One hundred years from now, historians will probably date the beginning of the fall of the American Empire to 1986. That is the year President Ronald Reagan ordered Jimmy Carter’s solar panels torn down from the White House roof, and when Chinese Premier Deng Xiaoping launched his secret “863” program to make his country a global technology leader. The End is Near for the … [Read more...]

Notice to Military Subscribers


To the dozens of subscribers in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service! I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you muster out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from … [Read more...]

China Steps Up Its Nuclear Program


The Middle Kingdom currently has 12 operational plants generating 12 gigawatts accounting for 2.3% of the country’s power. Another 23 are currently under construction. It plans to add ten a year for the next decade, taking them up to 70 Gigawatts by 2020, and a staggering 400 gigawatts by 2050. That’s nearly the total power generated in China today. This will make China the … [Read more...]

My Favorite Secret Economic Indicator


It is the end of the school year at the University of California at Berkeley, and the unenviable task of moving my son, a senior, out of his hovel for the holidays fell to me. When I arrived, I was stunned to find nothing less than a war zone. Both sides of every street were lined with mountains of trash, the unwanted flotsam and jetsam cast aside by departing students. … [Read more...]

This is Not Your Father’s Nuclear Power Plant


On my recent trip to Oregon I met with venture capital investors in NuScale Power, which is trailblazing, the brave new world of “new” nuclear. Their technology has been pioneered by Dr. Jose Reyes, dean of the School of Engineering at Oregon State University in Corvallis. This is definitely not your father’s nuclear power plant. The company has applied for design … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Chihuahua Glut


Yesterday, I wrote about the Nevadan wrinkle in the housing crisis where distressed homeowners are letting their horses go wild to make their mortgage payment. Now neighboring California is facing a Chihuahua glut, where evicted homeowners are handing over their pets to animal shelters. The diminutive Mexican canine enjoyed a boom in popularity in recent years, thanks to movies … [Read more...]

SOLD OUT – October 26, 2012 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon


Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, October 26, 2012. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Win a Free Renewal to Global Trading Dispatch.


I am looking to hear from the readers who have enjoyed the most profitable trading experience following my Trade Alerts in 2012. I am interested in learning about the specific trades you placed, the amount of money you made, and how the service has enhanced your trading experience. The winner will receive a free one year renewal to Global Trading Dispatch, which currently … [Read more...]

SOLD OUT — October 19, 2012 Washington DC Strategy Luncheon


Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Washington DC at noon on Friday, October 19, 2012. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

Order Execution 101


Given the sudden uptick in trade alerts I have been sending out to my Global Trading Dispatch subscribers, some 60 since August 10, I have been inundated with requests for how to execute these. So I thought I’d take some time today to expound on the basics of order execution 101. There are three basic ways to intelligently get an order into the market: 1) The No Brainer … [Read more...]

Bernanke’s Stake Through Romney’s Heart.


I can just imagine how Ben Bernanke’s announcement of QE3 went down at Mitt Romney’s campaign headquarters in Massachusetts last week. Doors slammed, heads pounded against walls, and hair was torn out. You can almost hear the whoosh of resume’s flying down to conservative think tanks on Washington DC’s “K” street as campaign workers scramble to find post-election employment. … [Read more...]

September 26, 2012 — Quote of the Day.

“The nice thing about gold is that it has no PE multiple. Because it earns and yields nothing, gold is a speculation on the systematic debasement of currencies by central banks,” said Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. … [Read more...]

SOLD OUT — September 28, 2012 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon


Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Friday, September 28, 2012. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

Oil is Not Looking So Hot.


I received another one of those scratchy cell phone calls from my friend in the West Texas oil patch. You could almost feel the dust coming through the ether. He said that while Ben Bernanke his committed to buying $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities as part of QE3, he has not promised to buy a single barrel of oil. This is bad for oil. That means Texas Tea has … [Read more...]

September 25, 2012 — Quote of the Day.

“China is the classic emerging market roach motel, except it’s a really big one. It is very difficult to earn adequate returns on capital and to get your capital back as a westerner,” said Jim Chanos of hedge fund Kynikos Associates.   … [Read more...]



Thank you so much for the newsletter you sent out – I really enjoyed reading it. You’ve got quite a unique and engaging style as a writer, world traveler/lecturer and of course, trader. I’m glad to see your performance numbers catapulted you to the top percentile of the hedge fund ranks – all the best on your future endeavors. Noemi San Jose, CA   … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the Big Show in Silver.


Those transfixed by gold blasting through the $1,750 level have been missing the real action in silver. The white metal has soared 34% to $34 since the beginning of the year, compared to only a 14% move for the barbaric relic, an outperformance of 2.4 to one. I have been a raging bull on the precious metals space since early August. Silver gives you additional diversification … [Read more...]

Revisiting the First Silver Bubble.


With silver back in the headlines, I thought I'd touch base with a wizened and grizzled old veteran who still remembers the last time the biggest bubble in history popped for the white metal. That would be Mike Robertson, who runs Robertson Wealth Management, one of the largest and most successful registered investment advisors in the country. Mike is the last surviving … [Read more...]

September 24, 2012 — Quote of the Day

“There’s no exit. I think it’s more likely that the Fed buys all the Treasury bonds that exist than to work the opposite direction and start selling them. I have no concept of what the Fed exit strategy is going to look like. It’s way out in the future,” said Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of fixed income manager Doubleline. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the September 26 Global Strategy Webinar.

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, September 12 at 12:00 noon EST. This webinar will be broadcast from back home in San Francisco, so everything should work. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive … [Read more...]

The 30-Year View on What’s Happening Today.

Bubble Dude

Take a look at the 30 year chart of the S&P 500 below, and it’s clear that the market is approaching a critical juncture. With the closely watched index closing at 1,460 today, we are a mere 140 points from the iron ceiling that has been unassailable for the past 13 years. The chart is a roll call of past disasters for American investors. The 2000 peak was the apex of … [Read more...]

Get the Most Bank Per Buck From my Research.


Sometimes market moves call for options, and I’ve used a lot of them recently. Can options be profitable? The proof is in the pudding as my strategies have paid off handsomely. However, I do get a lot of questions about option strategies and how best to place trades. In an effort to help my readers improve their profits I have scheduled an options training seminar for the first … [Read more...]

Why Apple May Go Ballistic.


I went into my local Apple store last week to buy an iPhone 5 to replace my aging iPhone 4s. The sales girl looked at me like I was out of my mind. She gave me a website address where I could pre-order and said good luck. I found out later that the company sold a stunning 2 million units in pre-orders in 24 hours. That’s nearly a billion dollars in revenue. Wow! I went back … [Read more...]

If You Had Any Doubts About Gold …


Since Ben Bernanke’s announcement of QE3 last week, new forecasts for gold have been popping up like acne at a high school prom. They range from the conservative to the absurd, from $1,900 to $55,000. But they all have one thing in common: higher. Before you head down to the local coin store to load up on bags of one ounce American gold eagles, let me go through the simplest of … [Read more...]

The Ultra Bull Case for Gold.


I am constantly barraged with emails from gold bugs who passionately argue that their beloved metal is trading at a tiny fraction of its true value, and that the barbaric relic is really worth $5,000, $10,000, or even $50,000 an ounce (GLD). They claim the move in the yellow metal we are seeing is only the beginning of a 30-fold rise in prices similar to what we saw from 1972 … [Read more...]



I really like your daily take on the markets and world issues. You have earned your stripes over and over. You are a statesman of the money world. I will see you on your next visit to Seattle. Stay safe, Mike Seattle, Washington   … [Read more...]

Emergency Strategy Reversal.


I think that Ben Bernanke’s QE3 is such a game changer, that we have to throw all existing strategies into the trash and start all over again from scratch.  Suddenly, investors and traders have to face the prospect of adding $500 billion to $1 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet, taking it to a record $3.7 trillion.  All of this new money will go into risk assets. This … [Read more...]

September 18, 2012 — Quote of the Day

As opposed to the mentality of the last couple of years where you faded every piece of good news, we may be moving to a period where you fade the bad news because you know there is a clear game plan below it,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs International in London.   … [Read more...]

Buy What Ben’s Buying.


In view of Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, yesterday:  it is time to reassess one’s investment strategy.  The former Princeton professor didn’t give us QE3, he gave us QE3 with a turbocharger, on steroids, with an extra dose of adrenaline.  He could spend another $1 trillion before all is said and done.  If ever an economic theory was pursued to extremes, this is it. … [Read more...]

Why Ben Bernanke Hates Me.


I don’t just think he hates me, he truly despises me.  In fact, he does everything he can to put me out of business. Take yesterday, for example, when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee gave me and my views a complete thrashing.  QE3 was the last thing in the world I was expecting because it was not justified by the current fundamentals.  Most other independent … [Read more...]

QE3 Blows Out Bears.


The big surprise today was not that the Federal Reserve launched QE3, but the extent of it.  For a start, they moved the “low interest rate” target out to mid-2015.  They left the commitment to bond-buying open-ended.  The first-year commitment came in at $480 billion, in-line with previous efforts. Reading the statement from the Open Market Committee, you can’t imagine a … [Read more...]

The Chinese Are Setting the Gold Market On Fire.


My friends in the gold futures puts have been telling me that the Chinese have emerged as major buyers in recent months.  Year-to-date imports have reached 458 tonnes, more than four times the amount during the same period last year – that amounts to $25 billion in real money.  This is on top of the country’s massive local gold production, which is kept entirely in country, the … [Read more...]

Quote of the Day

“We don’t think the economy is going to be overheating anytime soon,” said Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke.   … [Read more...]

Raising My Apple Target to $1,600.


Long-term readers of this letter are well aware of my pleadings with them a couple of years ago to buy Apple (AAPL) stock at $250 with a target of $1,000. Certainly, the 200 readers who work for Apple noticed.  That was back when the main concern about the company was that Steve Jobs would die young. In view of the upgrades present in the iPhone 5 announced today, I am going … [Read more...]



“First, thanks so much for your Global Trading Dispatch Trade Alert service, which is not only a wealth building tool, but offers a comprehensive trading education.  I sometimes trade your recommendations, and sometimes use your guidance to make more aggressive options and futures plays.  I especially liked your call on gold (GLD).  It’s working very nicely for … [Read more...]

And My Prediction Is…


Take those predictions, forecasts, and prognostications with so many grains of salt.  They have a notorious track record for being completely wrong, even when made by the leading experts in their fields. In preparing for my autumn lecture series, I came across these following nuggets and thought I’d share them with you – There are some real howlers: 1876 “This 'telephone' … [Read more...]

September 13, 2012 — Quote of the Day

“Facebook was being priced as if it were a beautiful woman without a blemish.  If any kind of blemish appeared, they will kill the stock.  I’d rather own Google or Apple,” said my old friend and former client, Leon Cooperman, CEO of mega hedge fund Omega Advisors. … [Read more...]

September 12, 2012 — Quote of the Day

“This has been the worst year for active managers in history. We have never seen numbers of people missing benchmarks so large. As the markets have moved up, the tracking error has grown. People are missing about a third of the upside in the markets,” said Thomas Lee, a chief equity strategist at JP Morgan.   … [Read more...]

My Fed Call.


My Fed Call. Survey traders and investors today, and you will find that 99% believe further quantitative easing via QE3 will be announced on Thursday. Poll vote Fed governors and you get a more realistic 50% probability. I think it is much less than that – and therein lies the trade. I think that markets are getting rather over-expended up here. They have been discounting … [Read more...]

Another Trade Alert Service All-Time High.


Global Trading Dispatch’s Trade Alert Service posted a new all-time high yesterday, clocking a 63.2% return since inception. The 2012 YTD return is now at 23.05%. That takes the average annualized return up to 33.3%, ranking it among the top performing hedge funds in the world. Those happy subscribers who bought my service on May 23 have seen an amazing 25 consecutive … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the September 12 Global Strategy Webinar.


My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, September 12 at 12:00 noon EST. This webinar will be broadcast from back home in San Francisco, so everything should work. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metals, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive … [Read more...]

Buy the Big Dip in Gold.


Look at the charts for the barbarous relic below and you can only come to one possible conclusion. If the Federal Reserve disappoints on Thursday, just a little bit, even by a smidgeon, and does not deliver QE3 and gold sells off big, you should jump in and by the stuff like crazy. All of the charts for gold and the derivative plays are showing major breakouts to the upside. … [Read more...]

The China News is Big.

A Chinese military delegate to the Natio

NOTE TO READERS: There is a short letter today because I spent the entire weekend writing Trade Alerts, which you will receive right at the Monday morning opening. Last Friday, China announced a $150 billion reflationary public works budget designed to arrest the current free fall in the country’s GDP growth rate. The move came totally out of the blue and caught many China … [Read more...]

Who is Ben Bernanke?


Since nothing less than the fate of the free world depends on the judgment of Ben Bernanke these days, I thought I’d touch base with David Wessel, the Wall Street Journal economics editor, who has just published In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic. I doubted David could tell me anything more about the former Princeton professor I didn’t already know. I … [Read more...]

September 10, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“Over the next several years, you will be shocked and surprised at the strength of the emerging Chinese consumer,” said Stephen Roach, the former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. … [Read more...]

Trading 101.


A number of readers have asked me why I’m not trading now. Since I put out my calls to sell Treasury bonds in August (click here for “The Great Treasury Bond Crash of 2010” ), and buy US stocks in September (click here for “My Equity Scenario for the Rest of 2010” ), I have mostly been sitting on my hands. I usually try to catch three or four trend changes a year, which might … [Read more...]

September 7, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“No matter who wins the election, we still have a lot of wood to chop. There is no way we continue to run huge deficits without a severe market consequence,” said my old friend and former client, Leon Cooperman, CEO of mega hedge fund Omega Advisors.     … [Read more...]

The New California Gold Rush.


The gold rush is back on in California. On my way back from Lake Tahoe recently, I saw that every bend of the American river was dotted with hopeful amateur miners, looking to make a windfall fortune. Weekend hobbyists were there panning away from the banks, while the hardcore pros stood in hip waders balancing portable pumps on truck inner tubes, pouring sand into sluice … [Read more...]

The Best Financial Book Ever.


I have just finished reading the best financial book ever, and I have read most of them. It is The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World by Harvard professor Niall Ferguson. It gives you a great explanation of how the broad sweep of history delivered us to the doorstep of today’s crisis. Ferguson starts with an ancient accounting system written on clay tablets in … [Read more...]

September 6, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“The most expensive advice that you will ever get is to be told at a market top that “This time it’s different,” said Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff   … [Read more...]

I Can’t Wait Until September 12.


Those who have been dying of boredom during August -- the lowest volume, tightest ranging month in many years -- may be about to get their respite. September 12 (or Wednesday next week) offers a potential cornucopia of either fantastically good or terribly bad news, and maybe both. Let me give you a program of the upcoming events on this momentous day: *The German Supreme … [Read more...]

Quit Singing “Waltzing Matilda” in the Shower. Trade Alert:


Sell Short the Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust October, 2012 (FXA) $105-$108 call spread at $0.35 or best Opening Trade 9-4-2012 – 2:00 PM EST expiration date: October 19, 2012 Portfolio weighting: 10% = 45 contracts on a net delta adjusted basis This is a bet that the Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust October, 2012 (FXA) trades at or below $105.35 … [Read more...]

A Tribute to a 9/11 Hero.


With the 11th anniversary of 9/11 a week away, I want to forward the message circulating among past-and-present Morgan Stanley staffers, myself included: As a firm headquartered in New York City, this is always a sobering time for us. For us, we remember those who died and the heroism of many that saved thousands of lives. At Morgan Stanley, Richard "Rick" Rescorla was our … [Read more...]

Here Comes the Next Peace Dividend.


When communications between intelligence agencies suddenly spike, as has recently been the case, I sit up and take note. Hey, you don't think I talk to all of those generals because I like their snappy uniforms, do you? The word is that the despotic, authoritarian regime in Syria is on the verge of collapse, and is unlikely to survive more than a few more months. The body … [Read more...]

September 4, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“For the third year in a row, high oil prices have slowed down the general economy, because disposable income is lost to high gasoline prices,” said John Hofmeister, former CEO of Shell Oil.   … [Read more...]

Business is Booming at Ruff Times


Following Howard Ruff for the last 35 years has always been eye opening, if not entertaining. The irascible Mormon is the publisher of Ruff Times ( http://www.rufftimes.com  ), one of the oldest investment letters in the business, and one of the original worshipers of hard assets. The great thing about the end of the world crowd is that all of their trades are going … [Read more...]

A Snapshot of America’s Native Indian Economy


When I was remodeling my 160-year-old London house, the chimney was in desperate need of attention. After the bricklayer crawled up the fireplace, he found a yellowed and somewhat singed envelope addressed to Santa Claus. Thinking it was placed there by my kids, he handed it over to me. In it was a letter dated Christmas, 1910 asking for a Red Indian suit. Europeans have … [Read more...]



I wouldn’t say that I’ve made a great deal of money from using your recommendations, as I’ve got caught by bad timing on silver, SDS, TBT and EUO. I’ve also done very well out of your other recommendations. Your views on the market are invaluable, and you’ve helped a lot in learning how to manage an investment account and to hedge. However, your latest bulletin about the … [Read more...]

August 31, 2012 – Quote of the Day


"I mind my own business," she told the Guinness World Records. "And I don't eat junk food," Said Besse Cooper, the world’s oldest person, on her 116th birthday in Monroe, Georgia. … [Read more...]

Is “RISK ON”/”RISK OFF” Broken?


Here’s a chart that you don’t see very often, the one for iron ore priced in U.S. dollars. I’m sure that every miner working at BHP’s pits in the Australian outback goes to sleep with a print out of this chart clutched close to his chest. You can’t blame him, as his livelihood depends on it, and it has had a definite southerly tilt for the last two years, losing some 50% from … [Read more...]

August 29, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“I’m in the probability business, not the forecasting business. Certainties offer very low returns, uncertainties, high returns,” said venture capitalist, Vinod Khosla. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the August 29 Global Strategy Webinar.


My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, August 29 at 12:00 noon EST. This webinar will be broadcast from back home in San Francisco, so everything should work. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metals, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to … [Read more...]

Closing Trade Alert on the (TLT)


Buy to Cover the Short position in the (TLT) September $116-$111 put spread at $0.07 or best Closing Trade 8-28-2012 – 11:30 AM EST expiration date: 9-21-2012 Portfolio weighting: 5%on a delta basis ($5,000/100/$0.07) = 25 Contracts Eight days ago, I was dead-on correct in predicting that a risk reversal in the markets was imminent, and the Treasury bond … [Read more...]

Case Shiller Data Points to Real Estate Bottom.


Cheers went up from the real estate industry this morning when the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller data was released. It showed the first year-on-year increases in prices since 2006. Calls went out from real estate agents around the country announcing that the bottom was in and that you better buy now before prices shoot up. Not so fast. Let’s look at the data first. … [Read more...]

August 29, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“Central banks can do whatever they want. But there is no monetary policy powerful enough to prevent the U.S. from going into recession in the first six months of next year if the fiscal cliff happens,” said strategist, Dan Greenhaus. … [Read more...]

Lunch With the Army Chief of Staff


I can’t tell you how many times I have received a call from the Joint Chiefs of Staff asking “if country “A” attacks country “B” what is the effect on country “Q” and “Z”? After all, there is a pretty short list of those monitoring the global macro economy for 40 years with direct experience in the Middle East since 1968. So when I saw the 703 area code for the Pentagon light … [Read more...]

August 28, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“The strength of the Army must be credible enough to keep the knuckleheads abroad from miscalculating and instigating conflicts which they can’t win,” said Army Chief of Staff, General Ray Odierno. … [Read more...]

Gold is Just Getting Started


One of my best calls of the year was to plead with readers to avoid gold like the plague, periodically dipping in on the short side only. The barbarous relic has been in a bear market since it peaked at $1,922 an ounce at the end of August last year. Gold shares have fared much worse, with lead stock Barrack Gold (ABX) dropping 36% since then and the gold miners ETF (GDX) … [Read more...]

How U.S. Job Losses Will End


I was researching comparative Asian wage data the other day and was astounded with what I found. Textile workers earn $2.99 an hour in India (PIN), $1.84 in China (FXI), and $0.49 in Vietnam (VNM). This is an 18-fold increase in labor costs from $0.10 an-hour since Chinese industrialization launched in 1978. This compares to the $8 an hour our much abused illegals get at … [Read more...]

Options for the Beginner


I strongly urge readers of this letter to log on to Amazon and buy a copy of Options for the Beginner and Beyond by W. Edward Olmstead. Options contracts offer investors a wonderful instrument for minimizing risk, while maximizing the upside, and I am going to recommend many more such strategies in the future. So, if you want to have the slightest idea of what I am talking … [Read more...]

August 27, 2012 — Quote of the Day


“There’s been a lot of lost face in asset allocation over the past five years. Who would have thought that government bond yields could have gone so low?” said Michael Turner, a strategist at Aberdeen Asset Management.       … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the August 29 Global Strategy Webinar


My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, August 29 at 12:00 noon EST. This webinar will be broadcast from back home in San Francisco, so everything should work. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell … [Read more...]

The “Safe” Trade Beats All


I certainly hope you took my advice to load your portfolio with corn and gold and to dump your equities five years ago. What? You didn’t? Then you have almost certainly suffered on the performance front. According to data compiled by my former employer, the Financial Times, corn was the top performing asset class since 2007, bringing in a stunning 146% return. Who knew that … [Read more...]

BHP Cut Bodes Ill for the Global Economy


The decision by BHP Billiton, one of the world’s largest producers of copper, to postpone its planned $20 billion expansion of its Olympic Dam mine is sounding alarms about the near term state of the global economy. It is telling us that China is slowing faster than we thought, that demand for base metals is shriveling, and that we are anything but close to exiting out current … [Read more...]

August 24, 2012 – Quote of the Day

Parents swear, and children suffer 2

“Right now, our politics are holding us back. It’s like being the children of permanently divorcing parents. The political environment is a real downer for a lot of people, and their holding back,” said New York Times columnist, Tom Friedman, author of the book, That Used To Be US. … [Read more...]

Reach for Yield With Sovereign Debt


During my recent meeting with the senior portfolio managers of the big Swiss banks, I kept hearing the same word over and over: yield, yield, yield! The search for yield by end investors has become so overwhelming that it now trumps all other considerations. So I am starting a series of major pieces on the world’s best yield plays. Those include emerging market debt, REIT’s, … [Read more...]

Why I Love/Hate the Oil Companies


With oil (USO) getting ready to take a run at $100 a barrel once again, the first thing I do when I get up every morning is to curse the oil companies as the blood sucking scourges of modern civilization. I then fall down on my knees and thank goodness that we have the oil companies. You’ve got to love ExxonMobile (XOM). The world’s largest company announced an unbelievable … [Read more...]

August 23, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“Today, 20% of enterprises are using Apple computers on their desktop. For the first time in 30 years, for developers, it is Apple first, not Apple second. This fundamentally changes our investment thesis,” said Ann Winblad of Winblad Hummer Venture Partners. … [Read more...]

Gold Surge Pushes Trade Alert Service to New All Time High


Global Trading Dispatch’s Trade Alert Service posted a new all-time high yesterday, clocking a 52.8% return since inception. The 2012 YTD return is now at 12.62%. That takes the average annualized return up to 30.2%, ranking it among the top performing hedge funds in the world. Those happy subscribers who bought my service on May 23 have seen 19 out of 20 trade recommendations … [Read more...]

Hedge Funds: The New Dumb Money


Much of the fury in this morning’s nearly 60 point “melt up” opening in the Dow was generated by hedge funds panicking to cover shorts. Convinced of the imminent collapse of Europe, the impotence of governments, and the death spiral in sovereign bonds, many managers were running a maximum short position at the opening, and for the umpteenth time, were forced to cover at a loss. … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Coming Risk Reversal


It is a fact of life that markets get overstretched. Think of pulling on a rubber band too hard, or loading too many paddlers at one end of a canoe. Whatever the metaphor, the outcome is always unpleasant and sometimes disastrous. Take a look at the charts below and you can see how extended markets have become. Stocks (DIA), (QQQ), (IWM) have reached the top of decade and a … [Read more...]

Meet My Health Care Plan


While in Zermatt, Switzerland recently, I took the opportunity to undergo my annual physical. Over the years, I have discovered that American doctors are so paranoid about getting sued that I can never get a straight answer about anything, so I do all of my physicals abroad. I like visiting Dr. Christian because he is cut from the same cloth as I. He is a small wiry guy … [Read more...]

August 21, 2012 – Quote of the Day


I’ve said it many times. Energy’s share of GDP at 17% is a wall. When we get to 17%, we almost always have a recession. And by the way, we are at 15% now,” said Joe Petrowski, CEO of the Cumberland Gulf Group, a petroleum marketer. … [Read more...]

The Volatility Death Spiral Continues


Mr. Market sometimes speaks in mysterious tongues, and you really have to wonder what he is struggling to tell us by taking the Volatility Index (VIX) down to a subterranean $13 handle on Friday, a new five year low. A number of advisors have been recommending that investors load up on the (VIX) in recent months to give them downside protection from an imminent market crash. … [Read more...]

The Mystery of the Brasher Doubloon


I’ll never forgot when my friend, Don Kagin, one of the world’s top dealers in rare coins, walked into the gym one day and announced that he made $1 million that morning.  I inquired “How is that, pray tell?” He told me that he was an investor and technical consultant to a venture hoping to discover the long lost USS Central America, which sunk in a storm off the Atlantic … [Read more...]

August 20, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“We can’t even have a decent conversation about tax reform because there is so much mythology out there,” said former Treasury Secretary, Paul O’Neill. … [Read more...]

The Fat Lady is Singing for the Japanese Yen


“Oh, how I despise the yen, let me count the ways.” I’m sure Shakespeare would have come up with a line of iambic pentameter similar to this if he were a foreign exchange trader. I firmly believe that a short position in the yen should be at the core of any hedged portfolio for the next decade, but so far every time I have dipped my toe in the water, it has been chopped off by … [Read more...]

Get Ready to Buy the Bond Market


The Treasury bond market has just suffered one of the most horrific selloffs in recent memory, taking the yield on ten year paper up from 1.38% to an eye popping 1.83% in weeks, a three month high. Yields have just risen by an amazing 38%. This has dragged the principal Treasury bond ETF (TLT) down from $132 to $120. Those who were pining to get into this safe haven at a … [Read more...]



I have had an incredibly amazing first year with you John. The return you made for us is outstanding. After receiving one year of your education I got that feeling of being ahead of the market and especially of the Private Banking guys. What a nice feeling it is. I hope you will keep your Trade Alert program open at least the next five years. Thanks! P. … [Read more...]

August 17, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“The good news is that we have moved away from heart attack mode in the European Community,” said Gillian Tett, US managing editor of the Financial Times.   … [Read more...]