Global Market Comments August 4, 2009Featured Trades: (EURO), ($CAD), ($AUS), ($NZD), (JNK), (PHB), (HYG), (EWY)   1) The chickens are finally coming home to roost for the dollar, which has gapped since Thursday from $1.40 down to $1.4450 against the euro, and done even worse again the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand currencies. Crude traders [...]

Global Market Comments August 3, 2009Featured Trades: (NATURAL GAS), (TM) Special Announcement   1) The Mad Hedge Fund Trader will be presenting a lecture to San Francisco’s prestigious Commonwealth Club of California at 5:30 pm on Tuesday, August 11, 2009. It is entitled Does America Have a Future? I will give a brief history of [...]

Global Market Comments July 31, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (GS), (MS), (KBE) 1) I thought PIMCO co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian hit the nail on the head when he said that the July stock market rally was nothing more than a sugar high. Skyrocketing unemployment does not create new demand. We are going nowhere without a real [...]

Global Market Comments July 30, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (DOW), ($XAD), ($CDW), ($NZD), (COPPER), (LUMBER), (WHEAT), (NATURAL GAS), (GOLD) 1) OK, so they didn't mention the mosquitoes, the poison oak, or the guy snoring in the next tent on the website. But I'd rather put up with all of that than the absolute dearth of [...]

Global Market Comments July 24, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), ($INDU), (NASDAQ), (DO), (JAPAN), (CALIFORNIA) Note to Subscribers: The Diary of a Mad hedge Fund Trader will not be published on July 27, 28, and 29. It’s time to clear out the cobwebs and restore my animal spirits. These days will be added on to the [...]

Global Market Comments July 23, 2009 Featured Trades: (FCX), (COPPER), (CAT)   1) One of my favorite stocks, and one of the great ‘tells’ on the state of the global economy is Freeport McMoRan (FCX), the world’s largest copper and gold producer. CEO, Richard Adkerson, says it’s all about ‘China, China, China’, which has been [...]

Global Market Comments July 22, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX) 1) Let me tell you that I, and the rest of the hedge fund industry, are highly suspicious of the global stock market rally that has ensued over the past week. Companies lowered earnings expectations so far they were easy to beat, and could be achieved [...]

Global Market Comments July 21, 2009 Emerging Markets Special Issue Featured Trades: (HONG KONG), ($HSI), (EEM), KOREA), ($KOSPI), (PLD)   1)The upside breakout to a new 10 month high of 19,500 in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index last night, up 70% from its March low,  could be a signal for better emerging market performance everywhere. [...]

Global Market Comments July 20, 2009 Featured Trades: (GE), (GS), (SPX), (FXI), (EEM), (TBT), (USO), (DBA)   1) China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced the data for the only country that matters right now, showing that Q2 GDP growth came in at 7.9%, much better than expected. The Middle Kingdom’s gold and foreign currency reserves [...]

Global Market Comments July 17, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (GOLD), (GLD)   1) The ‘head and shoulders’ is off the table, and now the S&P 500 is looking at a double top at 950. This is why I hate listening to technical analysts, and why they shop at Men’s Warehouse and drive Hyundai’s instead of [...]

Global Market Comments July 16, 2009 Featured Trades: (INTC), (ORCL), (HPQ), (IBM), (MSFT), (INDIA), (SENSEX), ($BSE), (AGU), (MON), (MOO), (POT) 1)  Intel's blowout earnings yesterday made crystal clear who is going to be buttering our bread for the next few decades (see income statement). More than 80% of their earnings came from foreign sources, far [...]

Global Market Comments July 15, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (GOLD), (BAC), (WFC), (GS), (CVX), (XOM)   1) When I turned on my computer this morning and saw the S&P 500 futures up 40 from yesterday’s low, I knew it was time to fix the flat on my kid’s bicycle, trim the hedges, repair the torn [...]

Global Market Comments July 14, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (JAPAN), (CRUDE), (CVX) Happy Bastille Day!   1) Yesterday, I showed you Arthur Hill’s elegant, technical, well thought out analysis of the S&P 500′s prospects. Below, please find my inelegant, non technical, graphical rending of a dead cat bounce. Any stocks dependent on the consumer feeling [...]

Global Market Comments July 13, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (NATURAL GAS), (IRAQ), (MO)   1) Every once in a while I stumble across a chart which is so clear, so vivid, so unequivocal in its implications, that it lifts the investment fog. This is that chart. Drawn up by stockchart.com’s Arthur Hill, it shows that [...]

Global Market Comments July 10, 2009 Featured Trades: (TBT), (TLT), (SPX)   1) The incredible melt up in Treasuries yesterday tells you that traders are dumping the global reflation trade like a hot potato. The ten year yield spiked up to a high of 3.28%, down from 4% only a month ago. Yesterday’s auction of [...]