Featured Trades: (THE NEW ASSET BUBBLE) 1) There is only one trade right now, and that is 'Risk On.' I noticed that I have had trouble composing my newsletter lately because in thumbnail form, all charts now look the same, those of a gull winged 'V's'. Looking at the long list of positions that I […]
Featured Trades: (MULTIFAMILY HOUSING) 2) The One Bright Spot in Real Estate. After my weekly dump on residential real estate yesterday, I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this beleaguered market that might actually make sense. By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and that of the […]
Featured Trades: (YEN), (YCS), (YUAN), (CYB) 3) Ganging Up on the Yen. My old friend, Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan’s former vice minister of finance and director of the IMF, also known as ‘Mr. Yen,’ believes that the Japanese currency is going to trade in a ¥92-¥97 range. That will frustrate hedge funds that pile on enormous […]
Featured Trades: (UNP), (PPLT), (PALL) 4) Union Pacific (UNP) is Barreling Down the Rails. I am going to run a series of articles over the next several days about the earnings reports of companies which are great ‘tells’ on the state of the global economy. Union Pacific (UNP) just announced Q1 profits of $516 million […]
If you think you are going to get a free ride, or a white horse to bail you out, the white horse is dead,' Said Senator Chris Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, about the new financial regulation bill.
Featured Trades: (SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) 1) Many thanks to all of you who attended my strategy luncheon at the Marines' Memorial Association in San Francisco on Friday. I found your questions insightful and your positive feedback inspirational. The club's meal and service was fabulous, as always. The security provided by the army battalion in […]
Featured Trades: (PCY), (LQD) 2) Cash is Piling into Emerging Market Debt. Last year, I suggested emerging market sovereign debt ETF’s as safe, high yielding investments in which to hide out in case the equity markets swoon again (click here for the call). With hedge funds scrambling to pile on more risk, and mutual funds […]
'Shallow ideas can be assimilated; ideas that require people to reorganize their picture of the world provoke hostility,' said David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner research, quoting James Gleick's book Chaos.
Featured Trades: (AN), (TM), (PPLT), (PALL) 1) Autonation Predicts a Big Recovery in Car Sales….and Platinum and Paladium. The performance of AutoNation (AN), the largest car retailer in the US, is a great leading indicator for the global economy and is to be ignored at your peril. Q1 revenues soared by a blistering 21% across […]
Featured Trades: (VCV), (NCP), (NVX) 2) California Muni Bonds: Load the Boat Now! Those who followed my advice to ‘buy’ California at the bottom by loading up on the state’s beleaguered tax free municipal bonds (click here for the call) will be excited by the latest report from controller, John Chiang. The Golden State’s revenues […]
Featured Trades: (GLOBAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIOS) 3) Learn to Live With Deleveraging. I am frequently asked for the basis of my long term growth target for the US for the decade of 2.5%, down from 3.9% for the previous one. Well, here it is. Deleveraging and balance sheet repair is going to be a driving factor […]
Featured Trades: ($100 DOLLAR BILL) 4) Business is Booming at the Money Printers. All of the high grade paper used by the US Treasury to print money is bought by one firm, Crane & Co., which has been in the same family for seven generations. Last year, the Feds printed 38 million banknotes worth $639 […]
'It's still a long journey back to 16 million, but the journey is unequivocally under way,' said Mike Jackson, CEO of AutoNation, the largest car retailer in the US.
SPECIAL ‘OH CANADA’ ISSUE Featured Trades: (CANADA), (FXC), (EWC) 1) The Canadian Dollar is About to Rocket. The Canadian central bank hinted today that they may raise interest rates at their next meeting, sending the loonie (FXC), rocketing through parity against Uncle Buck for the first time in two years. The move also sent […]
SPECIAL 'OH CANADA' ISSUE Featured Trades: (CANADA), (FXC), (EWC), (TAR SANDS) 2) Beware of Canadians Bearing Gifts. Anyone who has any illusions about the Canadian tar sands business should take a look at the March issue of National Geographic, not normally a prime source of financial and economic news for me. I'm not a fanatic, […]
Diary of Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Welcome to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s blog. Here you will find posts every day about the current state of the economy and market trends. This is also the place where John’s upcoming events, new podcasts and book recommendations are announced. Please subscribe to receive new posts in your email inbox.
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