May 19, 2015

Global Market CommentsMay 19, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JULY 13 MARRAKESH, MOROCCO GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(HOW TO AVOID PONZI SCHEMES),(TESTIMONIAL)(PLAY CHINA’S YUAN FROM THE LONG SIDE),(CYB), ($SSEC), (FXI) WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy ETF (CYB) Shanghai Stock Exchange Compostite Index ($SSEC)iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) … [Read more...]

How to Avoid Ponzi Schemes

bernie madoff

I spent a sad and depressing, but highly instructional evening with Dr. Stephen Greenspan, who lost most of his personal fortune with Bernie Madoff. The University of Connecticut psychology professor had poured the bulk of his savings into Sandra Mansky’s Tremont feeder fund; receiving convincing trade confirms and rock solid custody statements from the Bank of New York. This … [Read more...]


Jim Parker

Hello Jim, I have now joined you in the quest to learn and make money. I reviewed your last 6 quarterly outlooks and I can categorically say that your work is brilliant. I really appreciate having your strong views about the lows and highs on the market.  Your views seem to be far more sophisticated than just relying on a moving average for example.  You also know where … [Read more...]

May 18, 2015

Global Market CommentsMay 18, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JULY 2 LISBON, PORTUGAL GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(WHY ARE THE MARKETS GOING CRAZY?),(TLT), (FXE), (EUO),(ANNOUNCING THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER VIDEO CHANNEL ON YOUTUBE) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) … [Read more...]

Why Are the Markets Going Crazy?

Whining Plaque

You would think that with US interest rates spiking up, as they have done for the past month, the US dollar would be strong. After all, interest rate differentials are the principal driver of foreign exchange rates. But you would be wrong. The greenback has in fact pared 12% off its value against the Euro (FXE) during this period. You also could be forgiven for thinking that … [Read more...]

Announcing the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Video Channel on YouTube

John Thomas

One request I get more than any other, is to expand on my half century of international travel, provide a business, economic, and historical backdrop, and place it in today’s global context. Shake up such a cocktail of experience and knowledge, and more than a few trading and investment ideas spill over the top. If it’s funny, that helps too. It seems that I am one of a tiny … [Read more...]

May 18, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Girl Hiding

“When companies don’t want you to look at traditional metric, it is usually a good time to look at traditional metrics,” said hedge fund genius David Einhorn, of Greenlight Capital. … [Read more...]

May 19, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Jim Carrey

“The barriers to Wall Street are quite low, once you have the Ivy League credentials. If you’re a certain kind of kid who doesn’t actually know anything about anything, Wall Street is still a great place to go,” said Michael Lewis, author of “The Big Short.” … [Read more...]

May 15, 2015


An Evening with Bill Gates, Sr.

Bill Gates Jr-Sr

I had a chat with Bill Gates, Sr. recently, co-chairman of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the world’s largest private philanthropic organization. There, a staff of 800 helps him manage $30 billion. The foundation will give away $3.1 billion this year, a 10% increase over last year. Some $1.5 billion will go to emerging nation health care and another $750 million to … [Read more...]


John Thomas

Nice work!  You do great analysis and execution. I got a 100% overnight profit on the (UVXY) calls! Zev Potomac, Maryland You’ve Got to Be Dialed in the Get These Trades … [Read more...]

May 15, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“If you’re early on in your career, and they give you a choice between a great mentor or higher pay, take the mentor every time. It’s not even close. And don’t even think about leaving that mentor until your learning curve peaks,” said legendary hedge fund trader Paul Tudor Jones. … [Read more...]

May 14, 2015

Global Market CommentsMay 14, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 22 WASHINGTON DC GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(WHAT TO DO ABOUT APPLE),(AAPL), (CHL)(DON’T BE SHORT CHINA HERE),($SSEC), (FXI), (CYB), (CHL), (BIDU) Apple Inc. (AAPL)China Mobile Limited (CHL)Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (EOD)iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy ETF (CYB)Baidu, … [Read more...]

What To Do About Apple 2

Apple Logo

It is the world’s largest company. It is the planet’s most widely owned stock. Of the 200 million Americans who possess financial assets, probably all of them own Apple (AAPL), either directly through a trading account, or indirectly though an ETF (it is a massive 14.3% of the PowerShares QQQ), public or private pension fund. So more than a few people are interested in what … [Read more...]

Don’t Be Short China Here

Chinese Parade

Everyone who has been reading this letter for the past eight years (yes, there are quite a few of you), know that I am a fundamentalist first and a technician second. Of course you need to use both, as those who mistakenly leave one tool in the bag reliably underperform indexes. The one liner here is that I use fundamentals to identify broad, long term, even epochal trends, … [Read more...]

May 13, 2015

Global Market CommentsMay 13, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 25 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(TIME TO TAKE ANOTHER RIDE WITH GENERAL MOTORS), (GM), (F), (TM),(TESTIMONIAL)(QUANTITATIVE EASING EXPLAINED TO A 12 YEAR OLD) General Motors Company (GM)Ford Motor Co. (F) Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) … [Read more...]

Time to Take Another Ride with General Motors


It is safe to say that all of the bad news is finally in the price at General Motors (GM). In the wake of the latest batch of recalls, the total number of cars slated for mandatory repairs now equals virtually all of the company’s production of the last five years. Woe to the outside supplier who provided those faulty, but cheap ignition switches to the beleaguered company! … [Read more...]

Quantitative Easing Explained to a Twelve Year Old

QE Explained youtube

I know you spend all day trolling the internet for the most entertaining video on YouTube every day. What, you don’t? I’m shocked, shocked. That’s OK, so I’ve done it for you. Click on the link below to watch a six-minute animation explaining quantitative easing to a 12 year old, using cute little cuddly figures. Was Ben Bernanke a plumber who was called to fix a pipe only to … [Read more...]

May 8, 2015

Global Market CommentsMay 8, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL FIXED INCOME ISSUE Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, MAY 15 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(THE LIQUIDITY CRISIS COMING TO A MARKET NEAR YOU),(TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD),(TAKE A RIDE IN THE NEW SHORT JUNK ETF),(SJB), (JNK), (CORN)(TESTIMONIAL) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)iShares … [Read more...]

Friday, May 15 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, May 15, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to … [Read more...]

The Liquidity Crisis Coming to a Market Near You

Mohamed El-Erian

I had the great pleasure of having breakfast the other morning with my long time friend, Mohamed El-Erian, former co-CEO of the bond giant, PIMCO. Mohamed argues that there has been a major loss of liquidity in the financial markets in recent decades that will eventually come home to haunt us all. The result will be a structural increase in market volatility, and wild … [Read more...]

Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF


When you look at the profusion of new ETF’s being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops. The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders pay for it. The resulting returns for investors are disastrous. But occasionally a blind squirrel finds an acorn, and if you fire buckshot long enough, … [Read more...]



I would like to express how much I enjoy reading your newsletter and the global views that I gain from it.  It has been the best, by far, and the most financially worthwhile letter I have ever bought.  I find most newsletters spin and promote their returns during the good times, and never factor in or disclose their bad times. I have had some bad trades with you, but the … [Read more...]

May 7, 2015

Global Market CommentsMay 7, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 22 WASHINGTON DC GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(WHY I’M GETTING CAUTIOUS ON THE MARKET),(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (UVXY), (FXE), (USO), (TLT),(POPULATION BOMB ECHOES),(POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (RJA) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Ser 1 (QQQ)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)ProShares Ultra VIX … [Read more...]

Why I’m getting Cautious on the Market

John Thomas - beer

Let’s face it. We’ve had a great run since the stock market bottomed in a furious selling climax on October 15. Since then, the large cap S&P 500 (SPY) had tacked on some 18%, while the high tech NASDAQ (QQQ) has gained an impressive 23.6%, and the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM) flew 24.4%. My Own Trade Alert service performance improved by a positively steroidal 27.7%, as … [Read more...]

Population Bomb Echoes

Crowd - Overcrowding

Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS) and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse of the world’s food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat (WEAT), corn (CORN), soybeans (SOYB) and rice. The never dull and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects … [Read more...]

May 7, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“Wall Street’s denizens are always ready to suspend disbelief when dubious maneuvers are used to manufacture rising per-share earnings, particularly if these acrobatics produce mergers that generate huge fees for investment bankers,” said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. … [Read more...]

May 6, 2015

Global Market CommentsMay 6, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 29 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS 23.7% PROFIT IN 2015),(FXE), (EUO), (FCX), (AAPL), (GS), (PANW), (DXJ), (LEN), (GOOG),(THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)Apple Inc. (AAPL)The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits 23.7% Profit in 2015

John Thomas

I am sitting here in my luxury suite atop the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. The vast expanse of the southern Nevada desert sprawls out before me, stretching all the way out to the red rock mountains. Fluffy clouds dot the horizon, and the weather is perfect. Reports say it will only be 95 degrees today. Nearby, the flashing LED’s of the Nevada strip continue their never … [Read more...]

The Coolest Tombstone Contest


To prove that The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader only deals with the highest quality, top drawer clientele, I want to share the picture below sent in by a subscriber. … [Read more...]

May 5, 2015

Global Market CommentsMay 5, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY MAY 8 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON)(THE SOLAR MISSING LINK IS HERE!),(SCTY), (FSLR), (SPWR), (TSLA), (GE) SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)SunPower Corporation (SPWR)Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)General Electric Company (GE) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the Las Vegas Friday, May 8 Global Strategy Luncheon

Las Vegas

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Friday, May 8. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. … [Read more...]

The Solar Missing Link is Here!


I have seen the future, and it works. In my never-ending search for my readers for “ten-baggers,” or investments that will rise in value tenfold over the foreseeable future, I keep circling back to the solar industry. Tesla founder Elon Musk never does anything small. On Friday he announced the first ever, economical home battery electrical storage system, which he will call … [Read more...]

May 5, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Auction Signs

“As successful as solar has become, there was a bloody road of corporate carnage to get there,” said Joel Makower, chairman of the GreenBiz Group. … [Read more...]

May 4, 2015


Catching the Mayweather/Pacquiao Fight


Fights certainly attract a different kind of crowd than, say, the Opera, the Chicago Art Institute or the PTA. This I was reminded of on Saturday while checking in to catch my flight from the Windy City to Las Vegas to catch the Mayweather/Pacquiao fight for the welterweight championship of the world. “Glam” was definitely the order of the day, with the men drenched in bling … [Read more...]

May 4, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“Sitting tight is seldom recommended by Wall Street. Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut,” said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet. … [Read more...]

May 1, 2015

Global Market CommentsMay 1, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 22 WASHINGTON DC GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(CASHING IN ON FREEPORT MCMORAN),(FCX), (USO), (CU), (FM.TO), (ANTO.L),(BUY FLOOD INSRANCE WITH THE VIX), (VIX), (VXX), (UVXY),(TESTIMONIAL) Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)United States Oil ETF (USO)First Trust ISE Global Copper ETF (CU)First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM.TO) … [Read more...]

Cashing in on Freeport McMoRan

Beijing Restaurant

I am writing this to you from Terminal 2 at San Francisco Airport, awaiting my Virgin America flight to Chicago. My conclusion so far is that the beef curry rice at the Japanese fast food joint Wakaba isn’t what it used to be. The meat is paper thin and full of fat and gristle. I guess everyone is trying to cut costs these days. I saw a tall blond hustle by in a pilot’s … [Read more...]

Buy Flood Insurance With the VIX

Man-Pogo Stick

I am one of those cheapskates who buys Christmas ornaments by the bucket load from Costco in January for ten cents on the dollar because my eleven month return on capital comes close to 1,000%. I also like buying flood insurance in the middle of the summer when the forecast here in California is for endless days of sunshine. That is what we are facing now with the … [Read more...]


Jim Parker

Dear Jim, Those Apple calls you got me into on Friday at $5.80 opened this morning at $30! You’re the man! You made my Christmas, New Years, Presidents Day, Easter, and maybe even my Fourth of July. Keep ‘em coming. I’ve made over $200,000 since signing up for your Mad Day Trader Service. You’ve finally made me into a real trader. I thank you. I think I go buy myself a new … [Read more...]

April 30, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 30, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, MAY 15 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(HOW THE MARKETS WILL PLAY OUT THIS QUARTER),(SPY), (FXE), (FXY), (IWM), (QQQ), (USO), (FCX), (TLT), (TBT), (GS), (PANW), (TAN), (AAPL),(TESTIMONIAL),(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)CurrencyShares … [Read more...]

How the Markets Will Play Out This Quarter

Fox Hunt

I think I have figured out the course of the global financial markets over the next few months. We are currently transitioning from an economic data flow from Q1 that was very weak, to the second quarter, which will almost certainly deliver us a robust set of numbers. This is on the heels of a white hot Q1, 2014. Hot, cold, hot; this is a trader’s dream come true, as it gives … [Read more...]


John Thomas

A BIG  AAA+++ to John Thomas on the Apple (AAPL) trade. This is what it is all about. Steve, Mission Viejo, California With These Glasses I Can See the Future … [Read more...]

Sign Up Now for Text Messaging of Trade Alerts


Subscribers to Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO are able to receive instantaneous text messages of my proprietary Trade Alerts. This eliminates frustrating delays caused by traffic surges on the Internet itself, and by your local server. To activate your free service, please log in to your account at, look under your name on the … [Read more...]

April 29, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 29, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY MAY 8 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON),(HOW OBAMACARE WILL BOOST YOUR PORTFOLIO),(XLV), (GILD), (XLS), (XPH), (XBI), (GOOG) Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV)Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)Exelis Inc. (XLS)SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH)SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)Google Inc. (GOOG) … [Read more...]

How Obamacare Will Boost Your Portfolio


Basking in the glow of the spectacular 22% profit by the Trade Alert Service so far in 2015, I sat down on a rock on a high mountain the other day to try and figure out what happened. The last time I saw a move this healthy was back in 2013, when I clocked a 68% gain for the year. During the 1990’s, we saw a perfect trifecta of the Internet going mainstream, cheap graphical … [Read more...]

April 29, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“It is entirely predictable that people will occasionally panic, but not at all predictable when this will happen,” said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet. … [Read more...]

April 28, 2015


Last Chance to Attend the Chicago Friday, April 30 Global Strategy Luncheon


Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Thursday, April 30. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Apple Blows Out All Profit Forecasts


Apple blew away even the most optimistic forecasts yesterday, announcing earnings per share of $2.33, versus a consensus expectation of $2.16, and $1.75 last quarter. The firm earned $13.6 billion in profits on $58 billion in gross profits, the largest quarterly profit in world history. The company sold a staggering 61.2 million iPhone during the three-month period, 4 million … [Read more...]


John Thomas

John, you make me laugh. Following you has been awesome. If it weren’t for you, I'd have been a mega bear for the last three years. Cheers Justin Western Australia … [Read more...]

April 28, 2015 – Quote of the Day

apple logo

“Apple really has become “the” stock. People used to say “Whatever is good for GM is good for the country. Apple is now that stock. The market will continue to be a good market as long as Apple is a good stock,” said Roger McNamee of venture capital firm Elevation Partners. … [Read more...]

April 27, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 27, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 29 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(JUMPING BACK INTO GOOGLE),(GOOG), (AAPL),(WHO WAS BEN BERNANKE?) Google Inc. (GOOG)Apple Inc. (AAPL) … [Read more...]

June 29, 2015 London Strategy Luncheon

John Thomas

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, June 29, 2015. A three course lunch is included. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough … [Read more...]

Jumping Back Into Google


Google’s earnings were terrible. Therefore, the stock is rocketing. The fact that the earnings were not as bad as they could have been seems to be the twisted logic behind this rally. You would think I have a hole in my head buying a stock that just got slapped with a massive antitrust suit in Europe, which could potentially result in a record $6 billion fine, and suffers … [Read more...]

Who is Ben Bernanke?


Since nothing less than the fate of the free world depended on the judgment of Ben Bernanke, I thought I’d touch base with David Wessel, the Wall Street Journal economics editor, who has just published In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic. I doubted David could tell me anything more about the former Princeton professor I didn’t already know. I couldn’t have … [Read more...]

April 27, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“In the world of business, bad news often surfaces serially: You see a cockroach in your kitchen; as the days go by, you meet his relatives,” said oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett. … [Read more...]

April 24, 2015

Global Market Comments April 24, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WEDNESDAY APRIL 29 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (THE RECESSION IS OVER!), (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH) … [Read more...]

The Recession is Over!


The earnings announced for Q1 so far have been miserable, pummeled by a weak Euro, terrible weather and the West Coast port strike. But rather than collapse, global equity markets have punched through to new highs. It isn’t just the United States that is performing this magic trick. Most European indexes (HEDJ) have blasted through to new eight-year highs. Even more … [Read more...]

Please Use My Free Data Base Search

Woman hitting head

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up. You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box with the little … [Read more...]

April 24, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“Though the preachers of pessimism prattle endlessly about America’s problems, I’ve never seen one who wishes to emigrate (though I can think of a few for whom I would happily buy a one-way ticket), said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet. … [Read more...]

April 23, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 23, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL BERSHIRE HATHAWAY ISSUE Featured Trade:(A CHAT WITH BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY’S WARREN BUFFET),(BRK-A), (AXP), (WFC), (IBM), (KO), (GS), (AAPL), (UNP), (BAC) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A)American Express Company (AXP) Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) The Coca-Cola Company (KO) … [Read more...]

A Chat With Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett

Sometime in the early 1970’s, a friend of mine said I should take a look at a stock named Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) run by a young stud named Warren Buffett. I thought, “Why the hell should I invest in a company that makes sheets?” After all, the American textile industry was in the middle of a long trek toward extinction that began in the 1920’s, and was only briefly … [Read more...]

April 22, 2015

Global Market Comments April 22, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JUNE 29 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE TWO CENTURY DOLLAR SHORT), (CNN’S JOHN LEWIS; THE DEATH OF A COLLEAGUE) … [Read more...]

April 21, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 21, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 25 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(MY BRIEFING FROM THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF),(PANW), (PHO), (HACK), (FXI), (RSX),(TESTIMONIAL) Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO) PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) … [Read more...]


John Thomas

I retired eight years ago, and my broker told me to hang in there with my stocks before the recession, so I saved myself a lot of money and closed the account.  In 2009 I started paying for advice and investing on line.  A blind chicken could have made a fortune in 2009, and I did well. But it got harder, so I added advisers.  John Thomas was one I added in 2010.  Since … [Read more...]

April 21, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Roller Coaster

“My experience in business helps me as an investor, and my investment experience makes me a better businessman,” said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. … [Read more...]

April 20, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 20, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 22 WASHINGTON DC GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(WHERE THE ECONOMIST BIG MAC INDEX FINDS CURRENCY VALUE),(FXF), (FXE), (FXA), CYB)(THE FALLING MARKET FOR KIDS),(HOLLYWOOD CASHES IN ON WALL STREET TROUBLES) CurrencyShares Swiss Franc ETF (FXF) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) CurrencyShares Australian Dollar ETF (FXA) … [Read more...]

April 17, 2015


Special Note for My April 17 Incline Village Lunch Guests

John Thomas

Those who will be attending my Incline Village Global Strategy luncheon today, April 17 are welcome to join me on my daily hike afterwards. You need to do something to work off the excellent lunch. I’ll be kicking off from the trailhead at the Tunnel Creek Café off of Nevada State Highway 28. Please bring your hiking boots, hat, sunscreen, and a canteen. The weather will be … [Read more...]

The Portfolio That Will Double in Three Years


Below, I have listed a portfolio of ten stocks that will almost certainly double in three years. If I am wrong, it will gain 100% in only two years. But there is a catch. This basket of stocks may have to drop 20%-30% first. It is a cardinal rule of investment that if you want to earn higher returns, you must accept higher volatility as well. It doesn’t require a rocket … [Read more...]

April 16, 2015

Global Market Comments April 16, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY, MAY 15 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE NEW COLD WAR) (THE BEST FINANCIAL BOOK EVER) … [Read more...]

April 15, 2015


The Tax Rate Fallacy


When anyone starts lecturing you that the US has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world, just turn around, walk away, and pretend you never heard of them. This person is either ignorant about this country's taxation system, or is deliberately trying to deceive you. According to a report released by the Internal Revenue Service, America's tax collection agency, the … [Read more...]

The Best Testimonial Ever

John Thomas - Beach

I was pondering an FXE trade alert from MHFT today when my cell rang with a Berkeley, CA area code. Since I know a couple people in that part of the world, I answered, and it was none other than John Thomas. Had I not heard his voice on the MHFT webinars, I would have thought I was being punked. But given that I’m in the last month of a trial run, he actually called to find … [Read more...]

April 14, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 14, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE FRIDAY, APRIL 17 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(DON’T GET SCAMMED BY THE MUTUAL FUNDS),(WHY I LOVE/HATE THE OIL COMPANIES), (XOM), (COP), (OXY), (USO) Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)ConocoPhillips (COP) Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)United States Oil ETF (USO) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Friday, April 17 Incline Village, Nevada Global Strategy Luncheon

John Thomas

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Incline Village, Nevada on Friday, April 17, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

Don’t Get Scammed by the Mutual Funds


How many mutual funds would you guess outperformed the stock market since the bull run started six years ago? If you guessed 1,000, 100 or even 10, you would be dead wrong and even off by miles. In actual fact, not a single mutual fund has beaten the market since 2009. Remember all those expensive, slickly produced TV ads boasting market beating ratings and top quartiles? You … [Read more...]

April 14, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Bear Crossing

“We are not going to get the returns in the next five years that we got over the last five years,” said Ed Keon, managing director of Quantitative Asset Management. … [Read more...]

April 13, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 13, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS NEW ALL TIME HIGH),(FXE), (EUO), (SPY), (GS), (IWM), (PANW), (ZIOP), (THRX), (ZTS),(A NOTE ON THE UPCOMING FRIDAY APRIL 17 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),(GS), (FXE), (IWM) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High

Hula Dancing

I am sitting here on the balcony of my penthouse suite at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Maui. A gentle trade wind is causing the palms to rhythmically sway. Giant green sea turtles are landing on the beach, attracting hoards of tourists to video them with their iPhones. I am on my third mai tai for the day. There is a hula dancing class taking place on the front lawn. Life is … [Read more...]

A Note on the Upcoming Friday April 17 Options Expiration

Woman - Pat on the Back

We have several options positions that expire on Friday, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. My bets that (GS) and the (IWM) would rise, and that the (FXE) and (FXY) would fall during March and April proved dead on accurate. Provided that some 9/11 type even doesn’t occur this week, all positions should expire at their maximum … [Read more...]

April 13, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“Whenever I hear someone in finance say that a one in two billion year event just happened, I say that you just demonstrated you have a model for measuring tail risk that isn’t any good,” said former Treasury Secretary and Harvard University President Larry Summers. … [Read more...]

April 10, 2015


April 10, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Hot Air Balloon

“There is nowhere in the industrialized world where bond markets are looking for more than 2% inflation or more than 1% real interest rates over the next decade,” said former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. … [Read more...]

April 9, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 9, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, APRIL 17 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(MY UPDATED VIEW OF THE STOCK MARKET),(SPY), (TLT), (IWM), (DXJ), (FXE), (PANW), (GS), (AAPL), (FB), (BABA) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)CurrencyShares Euro … [Read more...]

My Updated View of the Stock Market

John Thomas

Sooner, and not as high. Those are the adjustments that I am making to my forecast this year for the performance of the US stock markets for the year. You may recall that in my 2015 Annual Asset Class Review (click here), that I thought the S&P 500 might appreciate from 2,060 to 2,350 by the end of 2015, a gain of 14%, and that stocks might reach an average multiple of … [Read more...]

April 9, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Woman Backpacker

“The central bank trade has been very fulfilling, but if you are going to play it now, do it aboard,” said Mohamed El-Erian, for co-CEO of bond giant PIMCO. … [Read more...]

April 8, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 8, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(CYBER SECURITY IS ONLY JUST GETTING STARTED),(PANW), (SNE), (GOOG), (CSCO), (FEYE), (FTNT), (CHKP), (JNPR),(A TRIBUTE TO A GIANT OF JOURNALISM, ROY ESSOYAN) Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Sony Corporation (SNE) Google Inc. (GOOG) Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)FireEye, Inc. … [Read more...]

Cyber Security is Only Just Getting Started


It looks like the cyber security sector, one of the best market performers so far in 2015, is about to take off like a rocket once again. There could be another 25%-50% in it this year. The near destruction of Sony (SNE) by North Korean hackers last November has certainly put the fear of God into corporate America. Apparently, they have no sense of humor whatsoever north of … [Read more...]

April 7, 2015

Global Market Comments April 7, 2015 Fiat Lux SPECIAL IRAN ISSUE Featured Trade: (CHICAGO FRIDAY, APRIL 30 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON), (IRAN PEACE DEAL BRINGS ON THE PAX AMERICANA), (USO) United States Oil ETF (USO)   … [Read more...]

Iran Deal Brings on the Pax Americana


The peace deal with Iran is worth a stock market double and maybe more. Add that to the double we already deserve from a cheap long-term price of energy, and it is clear that stock prices have a long ways to go on the upside from here. The Iranian peace deal is a hugely pro global growth, pro risk development, which I have been forecasting for years. Bring on the Pax … [Read more...]