The November Nonfarm Payroll Report is a Game Changer

Rosie the Riverter

Finally, the economy is starting to deliver the blockbuster numbers that I have been predicting all year. The 321,000 gain in the November nonfarm payroll on Friday wasn’t just good, they were fantastic, truly of boom time proportions. It was the best report in nearly three years. The headline unemployment rate stayed at 5.8%, a seven year low. It vindicates my ultra bullish … [Read more...]

The Real Estate Market in 2030

Home for Sale

Long time readers of this letter already know that, seeing the real estate crash coming a mile off, I dumped all my properties in 2005, some $20 million worth. Four a year, people told me I was too short sighted, that real estate never went down, or that I was an idiot. I patiently explained at local dinner parties the deteriorating demographic and financial fundamentals that … [Read more...]

December 8, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Mike Myers Dr. Evil

“It’s basically evil, and I don’t think it should ever be allowed to reach the size that it did. Why should everyone pay a small group of people to basically engage in legalized front running of our orders,” said Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman, Charlie Munger, about high frequency trading.   … [Read more...]

December 5, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 5, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON),(HERE IS YOUR BIG NEW YEAR TRADE),(CU), (FCX),(RUNNING THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO BREAKERS) First Trust ISE Global Copper ETF (CU)Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) … [Read more...]

Here is Your Big New Year Trade


When Dr. Copper (CU), the only commodity with a PhD in economics, suddenly collapses from a heart attack, risk takers everywhere have to sit up and take notice. Since the 2011 top, the red metal has collapsed a shocking 40%. It has given back a nausea inducing 10% just in the last two weeks. Will copper take down the rest of the financial markets with it? Is the bull case for … [Read more...]

Running the San Francisco Bay to Breakers

Revolutionary Soldiers

I suffer earthquakes, forest fires, floods, dubious neighbors, high taxes, corrupt politicians, and a bankrupt state government to live in California. It is all worth it just to run the Bay to Breakers every year, a five mile run from the San Francisco Bay to the Pacific Ocean, which has evolved into the world’s most bizarre sporting event. The word from race organizers this … [Read more...]

December 4, 2014

Global Market Comments December 4, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE EIGHT WORST TRADES IN HISTORY) … [Read more...]

The Eight Worst Trades in History

Moby Dick

As you are all well aware, I have long been a history buff. I am particularly fond of studying the history of my own avocation, trading, in the hope that the past errors of others will provide insights into the future. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes. So after decades of research on the topic, I thought I would provide you with a list of the eight worst … [Read more...]

December 4, 2014 – Quote of the Day


“Interest rates are the physical gravity of financial assets. The lower they are, the higher assets will levitate,” said Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, a leading hedge fund of funds. … [Read more...]

December 3, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 3, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(10 REASONS WHY I’M WRONG ON BOND),(TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (MUB), (ELD), (JNK),(A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED BANK OF AMERICA OPTIONS), (BAC) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)WisdomTree … [Read more...]

10 Reasons Why I’m Wrong on Bonds

John Thomas

I have never been one to run with the pack. I'm the guy who eternally marches to a different drummer, not in the next town, but the other hemisphere. I would never want to join a club that would lower its standards so far that it would invite me as a member. On those rare times that I do join the lemmings, I am punished severely. This is one of the times. Like everyone and … [Read more...]

A Special Note on Exercised Bank of America Options

John Thomas

This morning, Bank of America paid out a five cent quarterly dividend, which works out to an annualized yield of 1.18% and the shares will open this morning trading ex. For those of you who have wisely followed my Trade Alert to buy the Bank of America (BAC) December, 2014 $15-$16 vertical bull call spread, good for you. As of last night, you were showing a profit of 0.88% on … [Read more...]

December 2, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 2, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(DECEMBER 3 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(LOADING UP ON LINN ENERGY), (LINE), (USO), (UNG), (XLE),(THE MOST FUNCTIONAL WORD IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE) Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)United States Oil ETF (USO)United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG)United States Oil ETF (USO) … [Read more...]

Loading Up On Linn Energy

LINN Energy

You can pay up to $17 a unit for (LINN) and have a good chance of making a quick, snapback profit. All of a sudden, everyone I know in Texas, and there are quite a few of them, called to tell me to buy Linn Energy, all within the space of one hour. I summarize their diverse comments below. We have reached a margin call induced capitulation sell off in Linn Energy this … [Read more...]

The Most Functional Word in the English Language

Girl-I don't know!

Passed on by a friend with my apologies in advance: Well, it's shit... That's right, shit! Shit may just be the most functional word in the English language. You can smoke shit, buy shit, sell shit, lose shit, find shit, forget shit, and tell others to eat shit. Some people know their shit, while others can't tell the difference between shit and Shinola. There are lucky … [Read more...]

December 1, 2014

Global Market Comments December 1, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL OIL ISSUE Featured Trade: (CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (AN IRAN PEACE DEAL AND YOUR PORTFOLIO), (USO), (UNG) United States Oil ETF (USO) United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) … [Read more...]

An Iran Peace Deal and Your Portfolio

David Hale

With the price of oil (USO), (XLE) hitting an eye popping $64 this morning, in the wake of the failed OPEC summit in Vienna, it is clear that something long term, structural, and epochal is going on. But what is it? We mere mortals are blind to it, but the financial markets haven’t the slightest doubt. Blame the wisdom of crowds. There is something big going on somewhere. So … [Read more...]

November 28, 2014

Global Market Comments November 28, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DECEMBER 3 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (SURVIVING THANKSGIVING) … [Read more...]

Surviving Thanksgiving

Norman Rockwell Thanksgiving

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is taking a much-needed break for the next few days to take Turkey with the vast extended family in Incline Village, Nevada. The weather is crystal clear, in the sixties during the day and down to the thirties at night. During my night hikes on the Tahoe Rim Trail, I am over awed by a pale waning moon setting into the lake. The Trade Alerts went out … [Read more...]

November 26, 2014

Global Market Comments November 26, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL SOLAR CITY ISSUE Featured Trade: (LOADING THE BOAT WITH SOLAR CITY), (SCTY), (USO) SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) United States Oil ETF (USO) … [Read more...]

Loading the Boat with Solar City

Solar Shields

In recent weeks, I couldn’t help but notice the green and white vans of Solar City (SCTY) visiting my neighbors. My trader’s radar went up, so I thought there might be an opportunity here. What I found made an intriguing investment opportunity. As a preeminent supplier of solar energy, Solar City is a de facto indirect call option on the price of oil, not a bad bet here at $74 … [Read more...]

November 25, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 25, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE YEAREND MELT UP HAS STARTED!),(SPY), (TLT), (BAC), (FXE), (FXY),(EUROPEAN STYLE HOMELAND SECURITY),(TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)Bank of America Corporation (BAC)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) … [Read more...]

The Yearend Melt Up Has Started!

John Thomas - Beach

Any doubts that my bullish call on global risk markets would play out as promised were blown away on Friday. That was when the central banks of China and Europe delivered a surprise, one two punch of monetary stimulus for their own troubled economies. The quantitative easing baton has successful been passed from America’s Federal Reserve to central bankers abroad. The net net … [Read more...]

European Style Homeland Security


The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent geopolitical events, and have therefore raised their security level from "Miffed" to "Peeved." Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A Bit Cross." The English have not been "A Bit Cross" since the blitz in 1940, when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized … [Read more...]


John Thomas

Signing up for your service was the easiest decision that I have ever made knowing the value that I am getting in return. Thanks for making the world of capital markets profitable for non-Wall Street guys that are busy working in other professions. Until now, I have been forced to deal with money managers or 'Company Men' that only push the products their higher ups want to … [Read more...]

November 25, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Hot Air Balloon

“Bonds are priced artificially because you’ve got some guy buying tens of billions of dollars worth a month. That will change at some point, and when it does, people are going to lose a lot of money,” said oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. … [Read more...]

November 24, 2014

Global Market Comments November 24, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TRADING THE KENNEDY ASSASSINATION) … [Read more...]

Trading the Kennedy Assassination

Kennedy Motorcade

There is not a man alive my age who does not remember the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, on November 22, 1963, 51 years ago. The tragedy offers valuable lessons for today’s traders, although we have to travel a circuitous route to get there. It was one of those epochal events, where people remember exactly what they we doing when they heard the news, like the … [Read more...]

November 21, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 21, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(TRADE ALERT DROUGHT EXPLANATION AND MY MARKET TAKE),(SPY), (BABA), (VIX), (REPORT FROM AUSTRALIA) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX) … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Drought Explanation and My Market Take


Those of you who recently purchased the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s mentoring service may have noticed a sudden drop off in Trade Alerts. During October, I sent out a record 44 Alerts and Updates. As a result, that month was my best of the year, bringing in a gain of 6.69%. This month, only 5 Trade Alerts have gone out. What gives? I assure you, I have not been basking in the … [Read more...]

Report from Australia

John Thomas - Croc Dundee

The noise was as depressing as it was unmistakable. The front tire on my rental car blew out, leaving me stranded on the side of the road. The problem was that I was in the middle of nowhere in New South Wales, Australia, and it was pouring cats and dogs. Nothing but eucalyptus trees unfolded across the vast rolling hills. I looked in the trunk. Kookaburras laughed in the … [Read more...]

November 21, 2014 – Quote of the Day


“The private economy is OK here. It is absorbing these body blows from Washington. Housing and energy could offset the shenanigans coming out of there,” said Stephen Wood, CIO with Russell Investments Group. … [Read more...]

November 20, 2014


Lucky Find Sparks New California Gold Rush

Gold Coins

California is called the “Golden State” for a good reason. Countless fortunes have been made in mining, farming, real estate, tourism, movie making, aircraft manufacturing, aerospace, and more recently, in technology and pot growing. The Google (GOOG) and Facebook (FB) IPO’s each minted 1,000 millionaires, and Twitter’s (TWTR) deal is said to have produced 1,600 more. … [Read more...]

The Difference Between Mad Hedge Fund Trader and Mad Day Trader

John & Jim

Thanks to our ballistic, market beating performance, up 40% year to date, we have recently enjoyed a large influx of new subscribers, especially from Australia and New Zealand. So I want to take to take this opportunity to clarify exactly what you bought. While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader … [Read more...]

The New California Gold Rush

Panning for Gold

On my way back from Lake Tahoe last weekend I saw that every bend of the American river was dotted with hopeful miners, looking to make a windfall fortune. Weekend hobbyists were there panning away from the banks, while the hardcore pros stood in hip waders balancing portable pumps on truck inner tubes, pouring sand into sluice boxes. Welcome to the new California gold rush. … [Read more...]

November 19, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 19, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR),(TESTIMONIAL)(REPORT FROM NEW ZEALAND),(ENZL) Guggenheim S&P Global Water ETF (CGW)PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO)First Trust ISE Water ETF (FIW)Veolia Environnement S.A. (VE)Tetra Tech Inc. (TTEK)Pentair plc … [Read more...]

Why Water Will Soon Become More Valuable Than Oil


If you think that an energy shortage is bad, it will pale in comparison to the next water crisis. So investment in fresh water infrastructure is going to be a great recurring long-term investment theme. One theory about the endless wars in the Middle East since 1918 is that they have really been over water rights. Although Earth is often referred to as the water planet, only … [Read more...]


John Thomas

I have always had a passion for the markets and the Mad Hedge Fund Trader gave me the courage to make my first trade. At the time I was unemployed and put in everything I could scrape together - about ten thousand dollars. For me this was a free education, as the profits would pay for all the books and the fees. My father gave me some money as a gift, while telling me ‘I was … [Read more...]

Report from New Zealand

John Thomas New Zeland Maori

35 degrees South latitude, 174 degrees East longitude. I am writing this report from the Duke of Marlborough Hotel and Pub in remote Russell, off the east coast of New Zealand’s North Island. Once known as “The Hell Hole of the Pacific” in 1835, no less an authority than Charles Darwin, claimed this 19th century whaling port was populated with “the refuse of humanity.” It has … [Read more...]

November 19, 2014 – Quote of the Day

girl with money

If you can get a dividend higher than the yield on ten-year debt, it’s an opportunity we haven’t seen in our lifetime. On a five-year horizon, investing in large multinationals with high dividends will have a large payday,” said Lawrence Fink, CEO of BlackRock. … [Read more...]

November 18, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 18, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(NOVEMBER 19 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(JAPAN’S RUDE AWAKENING),(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ),(IS USA, INC. A “SELL”?) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) … [Read more...]

Japan’s Rude Awakening

Woman - Hari Kari

Traders in Japan suffered a rude awakening yesterday morning when the Ministry of International Trade and Industry announced that the troubled country’s GDP shrunk by -1.6% during the third quarter. Analysts had been expecting a gain of 2.2%. What’s worse, this is the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP, meaning that the Land of the Rising Sun is now solidly in … [Read more...]

Is USA Inc. a “SELL”?

USA Inc.

What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was cash flow negative, and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion? Chances are, you would cancel your subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, demand a refund, de-friend me from you Facebook account, and delete my email address from your contact list. Yet, that is precisely what my former colleague at … [Read more...]

November 18, 2014 – Quote of the Day


“At some point in 2014, knuckles are going to be turning white, and we'll see whatever rabbits Janet Yellen is going to have to pull out of her hat,” said David Rosenberg of Gluskin, Sheff & Associates. … [Read more...]

November 17, 2014

Global Market Comments November 17, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (BULL MARKET 2.0), (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH) … [Read more...]

Bull Market 2.0

Industrial Revolution

By now, the reasons behind this year’s bear market are pretty well known. Even my cleaning lady, Cecelia, can site them chapter and verse. Quantitative easing went global. Inflation fell, with the prices of almost all business input costs, like commodities, energy, interest rates, collapsing. Labor costs remained muted, so corporate profits rocketed. Voila! Stocks rose, … [Read more...]

Please Use My Free Data Base Search

Computer with Magnifying Glass

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up. You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box with the little … [Read more...]

November 14, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 14, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(NOVEMBER 19 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(THE 120/120 BATTLE),(FXY), (YCS), (FXE), (EUO), (UUP),(GET READY FOR YOUR NEXT BIG TAX HIT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) … [Read more...]

The 120/120 Battle

Wacky Guy

Foreign exchange traders are an odd lot. They tend to maintain a laser like focus on specific numbers that are utterly meaningless to us mere mortals, but which have momentous importance to themselves. Right now, one is hearing the battle cry over the 120/120 targets. Specifically, traders want to take the yen down to Y120 to the US dollar, and the Euro down to $1.20 by the … [Read more...]

Get Ready for Your Next Big Tax Hit

IRS Emblem plus

No matter what anyone promises you today, this week, or this year, your taxes are going up. I don’t care if you are still licking your wounds from the last payroll tax rise, or the federal tax hike for millionaires, which in my case took my rate up from 35% to 39.5%. At least the capital gains tax is still a steal at 20%. At $600 billion, the budget deficit is so enormous that … [Read more...]

November 14, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Finish Line

“Bull markets go everywhere from 1-2 years to five years after the Fed begins tightening. We’ve got a long way to go before we have to worry about bonds competing against stocks,” said Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School of Business … [Read more...]

November 13, 2014

Global Market Comments November 13, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AMERICA’S NATIVE INDIAN ECONOMY), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]


John Thomas

I have been following your trades for a while to the tune of several hundreds of thousands in profits. Kindly sign me up to the "A" team. Even after investing for over 30 years, some as a Wall St. pro, I need help with this market. Keep up the good work. BF West Chester, Pennsylvania … [Read more...]

November 13, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Man-I feel safe

“The longer that we see consistent returns in the stock market without messy 20% pullbacks, the more people are going to feel safe owning equities, and the more likely money comes out of bonds,” said Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors. … [Read more...]

November 12, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 12, 2014Fiat Lux SPECIAL FRACKING ISSUE Featured Trade:(WHY FRACKING WILL MAKE YOUR 2015 PERFORMANCE),(USO), (DIG), (UNG), (XOM), (OXY), (DVN), (APC), (DIG), (COG) United States Oil ETF (USO)ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG)United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG)Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)Devon Energy … [Read more...]

Why Fracking Will Make Your 2015 Performance


Be nice to investors on the way up, because you always meet them again on the way down. This is the harsh reality of those who have placed their money in the fracking space this year. The hottest sector in the market for the first half of the year, investors have recently fallen on hard times, with the price of oil collapsing from a $107 high in June to under $77 this morning, … [Read more...]

November 12, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Robotic Car Mfg.

“The question is not whether Tesla will sell 37,000 or 40,000 cars this year, but whether they will sell 14 million or 15 million in 15 years. I believe they can do it,” said Ron Baron of long-term value player, Baron Capital. … [Read more...]

November 11, 2014

Global Market Comments November 11, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE TAX RATE FALLACY), (A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN) … [Read more...]

A Tribute to a True Veteran

Medal of Honor

Today is Veterans Day, and I’ll be putting on my faded Marine Corp fatigues and railroad track bars and leading the home town’s Veteran’s Day parade. So I thought it would be a good day to tell you the story of my Uncle Mitch. Since job prospects for high school graduates in rural Pennsylvania in 1936 were poor, Mitch walked 200 miles to the nearest Marine Corp recruiting … [Read more...]

November 11, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Couple Reading Newspaper

“20 years ago I could read the Wall Street Journal every morning and feel that I knew enough to at least start my day. That is no longer true,” said technology guru and venture capital investor, Roger McNamee … [Read more...]

November 10, 2014

Global Market Comments November 10, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SHOPPING FOR A NEW BROKER) … [Read more...]

November 7, 2014

Global Market Comments November 7, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HOW TO TRADE THE REST OF 2014), (TRIBUTE TO A GIANT OF JOURNALISM, ROY ESSOYAN) … [Read more...]

How to Trade the Rest of 2014

johnthomas transparent

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy, and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.” That is one of my favorite quotes from Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, and it was never more true than during the past 30 trading days. It turns out that the lowest risk day to buy stocks in 2014 was October 15, when we saw a giant, capitulation, spike low in the S&P 500 (SPY) down to $182. That … [Read more...]

November 6, 2014

Global Market Comments November 6, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS), (CHINA’S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE), (THE WORST TRADE OF ALL TIME), (GLD) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) … [Read more...]

The Worst Trade of All Time

Steve Martin

One of the great asset management blunders of all time has to be the European Community’s decision to sell its gold reserves in the wake of the launch of the Euro in 1998. The decision led to the fairly rapid sale of 3,800 metric tonnes of the yellow metal at an average price of $280/ounce, reaping about $56 billion, according to the Financial Times. Today with gold at … [Read more...]

November 6, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Hillary Clinton

“Asking if Hillary Clinton is going to run for president in 2016 is like asking if John Dillinger is going to rob a bank,” said conservative commentator, Mike Murphy. … [Read more...]

November 5, 2014 – MDT – Oil


While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. … [Read more...]

November 5, 2014


Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High With 41.6% Gain in 2014

John Thomas

I am writing this to you from my lakefront estate at Incline Village, Nevada. I thought I’d get one more 100-mile hike in before the heavy snow falls. By now the mountain lions have migrated to lower altitudes so it’s safer. I’ll need the fresh air to map out my trading strategy for 2015 to please the many new subscribers who have recently come on board. This market has killed … [Read more...]

Decoding the Greenback

US Dollar

If you want to impress your friends with your vast knowledge of financial matters, then here are the Latin translations of the script on the backside of a US dollar bill. “ANNUIT COEPTIS” means “God has favored our undertaking.” “NOVUS ORDO SECLORUM” translates into “A new order has begun.” The Roman numerals at the base of the pyramid are “1776.” The better known “E PLURIBUS … [Read more...]

The Fusion in Your Future


Expect to hear a lot about ignition in the next year. No, I don’t mean the rebuilt ignition for the beat up ’68 Cadillac El Dorado up on blocks in your front yard. I’m referring to the inauguration of the National Ignition Facility next door to me at Lawrence Livermore National Labs in Livermore, California. Mention California to most people, and images of love beads, tie died … [Read more...]

What About Asset Allocation?

Regis Philbin

Asset allocation is the one question that I get every day, which I absolutely cannot answer. The reason is simple: no two investors are alike. The answer varies whether you are young or old, have $1,000 in the bank or $1 billion, are a sophisticated investor or an average Joe, in the top or the bottom tax bracket, and so on. This is something you should ask your financial … [Read more...]

November 5, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Sign - True False

“When you look at the size of the US work force over the next 30 years, it is going to increase by 30%. That compares to Japan, where it is going to be shrinking, Europe, where it is contracting, and even China, where it turns down. The idea that the baby boomers are going to overwhelm this huge growth in the work force is a myth,” said Scott Minerd, Managing Partner of … [Read more...]

November 4, 2014

Global Market Comments November 4, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (IS THERE A BITCOIN IN YOUR FUTURE?) (TESTIMONIAL)   … [Read more...]


John Thomas

In my wealth management practice, you helped me finesse October like a virtuoso.  As my client’s investments were crashing through their stops…I hung on.  Your sage counsel helped me ignore the noise, focus on the numbers and add to positions at a great entry point.  The scar tissue you’ve built up over your career is no small benefit to your subscribers.  Thank you so much! … [Read more...]

November 3, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 3, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JAPANESE YEN MELTS DOWN TO 12 YEAR LOW!),(FXY), (YCS), (SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (DXJ),(THERE ARE NO GURUS),(WATCH OUT FOR THE MILLENNIAL VOTER)(TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year … [Read more...]

Japanese Yen Melts Down to 12-Year Low!


Those who woke up early Friday morning may be forgiven for blinking at their screens quite a few times. The Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS) was down by an incredible 3%, the Dow Average futures were trading at an all time high of $17,400, and the S&P 500 was just short of a new peak at $202. The Japanese stock market blasted 5% to the upside, taking the Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Millennial Voter

College Kids

I have been banging the table for years now about the importance of demographic trends for the economy, the financial markets, and the housing market. Well, politics is no different. According to recent surveys, Millennials, who are now aged 23-34 (I have three of them) are suspicious of government, have a strong anti-business bias, are opposed to new regulation, are highly … [Read more...]



I watched John Thomas for a year before jumping in, and I should have done it earlier when he phenomenally traded that awful year, 2011, that whipsawed so many investors including myself. He again outperformed the market in 2012, and in 2013 so far he has shown amazing skill once more in navigating treacherous markets with deep-in-the-money call and put spreads. You can not … [Read more...]

November 3, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Foot on banana peel

“Risk control is the best route to loss avoidance. Risk avoidance, on the other hand, is likely to lead to return avoidance as well, said Howard Marks, founder of distressed debt giant, Oaktree Capital Management. … [Read more...]

October 31, 2014

Global Market Comments October 31, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 5 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (THE 2014 WORLD SERIES FROM YOUR BASEBALL CORRESPONDENT)   … [Read more...]

From Your Mad Hedge Fund Trader Baseball Correspondent

World Series Trophy

What a game! Burp. The San Francisco Giants trounced the Kansas City Royals 3-2 in what had to be one of the most exciting games in World Series History. After winning four of seven games, the City by the Bay brings home the Commissioner’s Trophy for the third time in five years. The Giants are starting to rival the incredible run enjoyed by the New York Yankees during the … [Read more...]

October 30, 2014

Global Market Comments October 30, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FAREWELL TO QUANTITATIVE EASING), (SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (EUO), (FXY), (YCS), (LNG), (BIDU), (TSLA), (BAC), (MS), (GS), (AXP), (AN EVENING WITH JAMES BAKER III), (CONNECTING UP AMERICA) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) … [Read more...]

Farewell to Quantitative Easing


Finally, at long last, after infinite amounts of speculation and false starts, the Federal Reserve has decided to end quantitative easing. After five years of soaking up both public and private debt in the marketplace, some $4.5 trillion worth, America’s central bank will quit picking up paper sometime next month. The printing presses are getting turned off and put into cold … [Read more...]

An Evening With James Baker III

James Baker

“We have 3,500 nuclear weapons left over from the cold war we don’t need, they take 20 seconds to re-aim, we’re not afraid to use them. And by the way, they’re already aimed at you.” That is the approach James Baker III thinks America should take with Iran, Ronald Reagan’s Chief of Staff and Secretary of the Treasury and George H.W. Bush’s Secretary of State. At the same time … [Read more...]

Connecting Up America

Tres Amigas

Until now, the country’s power grid has been divided into three unconnected, noncompetitive kingdoms (in the spirit of Game of Thrones), making transnational transmission impossible, leading to huge regional mispricing. While California and New York suffered from periodic brown outs and sky-high prices, electricity was given away virtually for free in Texas. A group of power … [Read more...]

October 30, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Recovery Sign

“We underestimated the negative impact of the slowdown in the housing market, and we may be underestimating the tail wind in its recovery,” said Uwe Mark Ruttke of Merrill Lynch, the top financial advisor in Colorado. … [Read more...]