Say Goodbye to the Washington Discount

National Parks Closed

If it hasn’t happened by today, then it is no more than a week away. The deep discount suffered by American stocks is about to go away. Thanks to the manufactured uncertainty emanating from the nation’s capital created by the government shutdown, stocks have been selling at a 10% or more discount to where they should be. As things stand, the shutdown is chopping about 1/8% a … [Read more...]

This is Not Your Father’s Nuclear Power Plant

NuScale System Design

On my recent trip to Oregon I met with venture capital investors in NuScale Power, which is trailblazing, the brave new world of “new” nuclear. Their technology has been pioneered by Dr. Jose Reyes, dean of the School of Engineering at Oregon State University in Corvallis. This is definitely not your father’s nuclear power plant. The company has applied for design … [Read more...]

October 4, 2013

Global Market Comments October 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (OCTOBER 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (AN EVENING WITH THE CHINESE INTELLIGENCE SERVICE), (FXI), (CYB), (BIDU), (CHL), (BYDDF), (CHA) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB) Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) China Mobile Limited (CHL) BYD Company Ltd. (BYDDF) China Telecom Corp. Ltd. (CHA) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the October 9 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, October 9 at 12:00 noon EDT. Login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take … [Read more...]

October 3, 2013

Global Market Comments October 3, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JOIN THE INVEST LIKE A MONSTER SAN FRANCISCO TRADING CONFERENCE), (THE MAD DAY TRADER’S Q4 TARGETS), (SPY), (QQQ), (TLT), (USO), (UNG), (GLD), (FXY), (FXE), (AN AFTERNOON WITH DR. PAUL EHRLICH), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) iShares Barclays … [Read more...]

Join the “Invest like a Monster” San Francisco Trading Conference

Trademonster

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape that will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance. Tickets are available for a … [Read more...]

The Mad Day Trader’s Q4 Targets

MDT Logo

Jim Parker, The Mad Day Trader, has published his targets for a broad range of asset classes for the fourth quarter of 2013. The numbers are the product of his proprietary model, which he has developed over the past 40 years, and generated one of the most outstanding track records in the business. Ignore Jim’s views at your peril! Jim says that stocks will bottom in coming … [Read more...]

An Afternoon with Dr. Paul Ehrlich

India - Food

Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world’s food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. The never dull and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects that global warming … [Read more...]

October 2, 2013

Global Market Comments October 2, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TEXAS TEA TAKES A DIVE), (USO), (UNG), (SCO), (DTO), (A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED OPTIONS) United States Oil (USO) United States Natural Gas (UNG) ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil (SCO) PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short ETN (DTO) … [Read more...]

Texas Tea Takes a Dive

Oil-Swimming

Take a Look at the chart below and you will see that the price of oil is breaking key support. Texas tea has now backed off $13 since the end of August, and lower prices beckon. It turned out that oil made an initial peak with the Egyptian Army’s ferocious and bloody attack on the Muslim Brotherhood. I hate to sound cynical here, but count the daily bodies in the street, … [Read more...]

A Special Note on Exercised Options

There are only 13 days left to the options expiration on October 18. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s model trade portfolio has six positions that are deep in-the-money that expire that day. So, it is important that we tread carefully to get the bull benefit. I received a few emails from readers whose option holdings have already been exercised against them, and have asked me for … [Read more...]

October 1, 2013

Global Market Comments October 1, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JAPAN TO LAUNCH IRA’S), (DXJ), (FXY), (YCS), (KISS THAT UNION JOB GOODBYE) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) … [Read more...]

Japan to Launch IRA’s

Girl - Ticker

The Japanese government is about to introduce Individual Retirement Account for individual investors for the first time. The move is part of prime minister Shinzo Abe’s multifaceted efforts to revive Japan’s economy, and could unleash as much as $690 billion in net buying into Japanese equities by 2018. The move was inspired American IRA’s, which were first introduced in … [Read more...]

Kiss That Union Job Goodbye

Line Up - Queue

Those of you counting on getting your old union assembly line job back in Detroit can forget it. The eight year forecast published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 4.19 million jobs will be gained in the US in professional and business services, followed by 4 million health care and social assistance jobs, while 1.2 million will be lost in manufacturing. This … [Read more...]

September 30, 2013

Global Market Comments September 30, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (HAVE CALM WATERS RETURNED FOR SHIPPING STOCKS?), ($BDI), (DRYS), (SEA), (GNK), (RIO), (BHP), (KOL), (FXA), (EWA) Baltic Exchange Dry Index ($BDI) DryShips, Inc. (DRYS) Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (SEA) Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. (GNK) Rio Tinto … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Have Calm Waters Returned for Shipping Stocks?

Lutine Bell

Traders are stunned by the performance of the shipping stocks this month, which have been far and away a top market performer. The big questions they are now asking are “Is it real?” and “Is it sustainable?” This sector has been down for so long that most investors left it for dead a long time ago. All that was missing was the tolling of the Lutine Bell at the insurance … [Read more...]

September 27, 2013

Global Market Comments September 27, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (GOING BACK INTO JAPAN), (DXJ), ($NIKK), (FXY), (YCS), (BE CAREFUL, YOUR PC IS WATCHING) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) Nikkei Index ($NIKK) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) … [Read more...]

Going Back Into Japan

Japanese Fan Dancer

The smart people I know believe that prime minister Shinzo Abe’s plans to revive the Japanese economy will succeed, paving the way for a decade long bull market that will take the Nikkei Index ($NIKK) up to new highs. The dumb people I know argue vociferously and passionately that Abe will fail miserably, and that the economy and stocks will crash and burn as early as next … [Read more...]

Be Careful, Your PC is Watching

computer

Hey! You there, staring at this monitor. This is your PC talking to you. No, not you over there standing in the background. I’m talking to the guy sitting in front of me poking at my keys. Ouch! That one hurt! So you thought no one was watching, did you? Let me set you straight. About a month ago you clicked on a certain website, and I installed myself as a cookie on your … [Read more...]

The Government That Cried Wolf

Obama

Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, is warning us that the government will run out of money on Monday. Maybe, by rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, he can continue crucial payments, like Social Security and veterans benefits, through October 16. After that, we are officially broke. Bills for what the government has already spent will go unpaid. Welcome to the deadbeat … [Read more...]

Breakfast With Boone Pickens

Boone Pickens

Reformed oil man, repenting sinner, and borne again environmentalist, T. Boone Pickens, Jr. says that “When we turn the US green, it will have the best economy ever.” I met the spry, homespun billionaire at San Francisco’s Mark Hopkins on a leg of his self-financed national campaign to get America to kick its dangerous dependence on foreign oil imports. For the past 30 … [Read more...]

September 25, 2013

Global Market Comments September 25, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS THREE YEAR 100% GAIN), (JOIN THE INVEST LIKE A MONSTER SAN FRANCISCO TRADING CONFERENCE), (WHY I’M BUYING THE TREASURY BOND MARKET), (TLT), (TBT) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) … [Read more...]

Join the “Invest Like a Monster” San Francisco Trading Conference

Trademonster

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest Like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape who will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance. Tickets are available for a … [Read more...]

Why I’m Buying the Treasury Bond Market

Quad

The Fed’s decision not to taper, and therefore keep interest rates lower for longer, gave a great flashing green light to the bond market. It has been off to the races ever since, with the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) blasting through resistance this morning to new two month high. As this is off a double bottom on the charts that has been unfolding since … [Read more...]

September 24, 2013

Global Market Comments September 24, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APPLE’S BLOWOUT NUMBERS SEND BEARS SCAMPERING), (AAPL), (QCOM), (CHL), (SSNLF), (MSFT), (GOOG), (EXPIRATION OF MY YEN BEAR PUT SPREAD), (MY PERSONAL LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR), (NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS) Apple Inc. (AAPL) QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) China Mobile Limited (CHL) Samsung … [Read more...]

Apple’s Blowout Numbers Send Bears Scampering

Line Up - Queue

Apple’s (AAPL) report this morning that it sold a stunning 9 million model 5s and 5c iPhones has bowled over even the company’s most optimistic cheerleaders and sent the bears running. The consensus estimate had been only for 5 million units. At the opening highs, shares were up $30 to $497, well above the $468 that prevailed at my September 11 Trade Alert to buy the … [Read more...]

Expiration of my Yen Bear Put Spread

Japanese Girl

Add this one to the “WIN” column. I strapped on this position because I believed that the world was adding risk, expecting major bull moves, once it becomes clear that the multiple disasters now threatening the world don’t actually happen. The list includes war with Syria, the taper, the Bernanke replacement, the debt ceiling crisis, another sequester, yada, yada, yada.  A … [Read more...]

My Personal Leading Economic Indicator

Troll Dolls

One of the joys of having small children is that you get to know the guy at the local plumbing supply shop really well. It’s amazing what will fit down a toilet these days. He once told me that when Troll Dolls hit the market, every plumber in the country was guaranteed a job for life. When I went there yesterday I thought I’d pick up some leading economic indicators as … [Read more...]

Notice to Military Subscribers

Soldier

To the dozens of subscribers in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service! I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you cash out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from … [Read more...]

September 23, 2013

Global Market Comments September 23, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TAKE A LOOK AT OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM), (OXY), ($WTIC), (USO), (TESTIMONIAL) Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Light Crude Oil ($WTIC) United States Oil (USO) … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Take a Look at Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Faberge Egg

I have kept oil companies in my long term model portfolio for many years now. But there are a lot of belles at the ball, but you can’t dance with all of them. While a student at UCLA in the early seventies, I took a World Politics class, which required me to pick a country, analyze its economy, and make recommendations for its economic development. I chose Algeria, a country … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the September 25 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, September 25 at 12:00 noon EDT. Login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to … [Read more...]

Report from the Matterhorn Summit

John Thomas-Matterhorn

From where I stand, the rolling foothills of Northern Italy spread out below me to the south. On my left lie the distinctive peaks of the Dolomite Alps. On my right I can see the massive expanse of Mont Blanc, at 15,781 feet the highest mountain in Europe. I am standing at the summit of the Matterhorn. Knock another item off the bucket list. I have been trying to climb this … [Read more...]

September 19, 2013

Global Market Comments September 19, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (BEN GIVES GREEN LIGHT TO BULL MARKETS), (SPY), (USO), (TLT), (FXE), (FXA), (FXY), (FXB), (YCS), (GLD), (SLV), (HOW TO AVOID PONZI SCHEMES), (PLAY CHINA’S YUAN FROM THE LONG SIDE), (CYB), ($SSEC), (EEM) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) United States Oil (USO) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond … [Read more...]

Ben Gives Green Light to Bull Markets

bb-image

I told you so! Ben Bernanke’s decision not to taper $85 billion a month of Federal Reserve bond purchases came as a surprise to everyone, but me. The reasons were legion. Blame Syria, blame the weak August nonfarm payroll, blame a near zero inflation rate, blame the coming debt ceiling crisis. The bottom line is that the numbers are just not there. The economy is growing … [Read more...]

How to Avoid Ponzi Schemes

Bernie Madoff

I spent a sad and depressing, but highly instructional evening with Dr. Stephen Greenspan, who lost most of his personal fortune with Bernie Madoff. The University of Connecticut psychology professor had poured the bulk of his savings into Sandra Mansky’s Tremont feeder fund; receiving convincing trade confirms and rock solid custody statements from the Bank of New … [Read more...]

Play China’s Yuan From the Long Side

Girl - Chinese

One of the oldest games in the foreign exchange market is to always buy the currencies of strong countries that are growing, and to sell short the currencies of the weak countries that are shrinking. Any doubts that China’s Yuan is a huge screaming buy should have been dispelled when news came out that it had displaced Germany as the world’s largest exporter. The Middle … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Pennies

This has been a real peach of a trade. In just eight days, (FCX) shares have jumped by 8%, taking the Freeport McMoRan October $28-$30 bull call spread from $1.68 to $1.93, a gain of 15%. And we did this by only risking 10% of our capital. We managed to achieve this profit when the price of copper actually went against us, falling some 3%. Clearly the equity aspect of this … [Read more...]

September 18, 2013

Global Market Comments September 18, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE ULTRA BULL ARGUMENT FOR GOLD), (GLD), (GDX), (ABX), (SLV), (AN EVENING WITH BILL GATES, SR.) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) … [Read more...]

The Ultra Bull Argument for Gold

gold20stack

We sit here in the calm before the storm awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision to taper a little, a lot, or not at all. Every asset class on the planet is in a holding pattern until then. So I’ll take this opportunity to review the current state of play in gold (GLD). Since it peaked in the summer of 2011, the barbarous relic has been beaten like the proverbial red headed … [Read more...]

An Evening With Bill Gates, Sr.

Bill Gates Jr-Sr

I had a chat with Bill Gates, Sr. recently, co-chairman of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the world’s largest private philanthropic organization. There, a staff of 800 helps him manage $30 billion. The foundation will give away $3.1 billion this year, a 10% increase over last year. Some $1.5 billion will go to emerging nation health care, and another $750 million to … [Read more...]

September 17, 2013

Global Market Comments September 17, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JOIN THE INVEST LIKE A MONSTER SAN FRANCISCO TRADING CONFERENCE), (IT’S ALL ABOUT LARRY), (SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (YCS), (FXA), (MSFT), (LUNCH WITH ROBERT REICH) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen … [Read more...]

Join the “Invest Like a Monster” San Francisco Trading Conference

Jon Majarian

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest Like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape who will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance. Tickets are available for a … [Read more...]

It’s All About Larry

Janet Yellen

When I first heard about Larry Summers decision to withdraw his name from consideration as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I thought “Whoa! “RISK ON, here we come.” I knew immediately that global stock (SPY), bond (TLT), and commodity markets would rocket and the dollar would crash (FXA), except against the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS). That’s what we got in spades at … [Read more...]

September 16, 2013

Global Market Comments September 16, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (CATCHING UP WITH ECONOMIST DAVID HALE), (EEM), (GREK), (IWW), (EWJ), (NGE), (EWJ), (FXY), (YCS) (TESTIMONIAL) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK) iShares Russell 3000 Value Index (IWW) iShares MSCI Japan Index … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Catching up with Economist David Hale

David Hale

I have been relying on David Hale as my de facto global macro economist for decades, and I never miss an opportunity to get his updated views. The challenge is in writing down David’s eye popping, out of consensus ideas fast enough, because he spits them out in such rapid-fire succession. Since David is an independent economic advisor to many of the world’s governments, … [Read more...]

September 13, 2013

Global Market Comments September 13, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS ANOTHER NEW ALL TIME HIGH), (FXY), (YCS), (FCX), (AAPL), (FXA), (LOADING UP ON AUSTRALIA), (FXA), (EWA), ($SSEC), ($BDI), (UPDATE ON FREEPORT MCMORAN) (FCX) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. … [Read more...]

Loading Up on Australia

Map Australien Energie

It looks like I’m Waltzing Matilda again. I am going to use the two-cent drop last night to scale into a long position in the Australian dollar. This is a dip in the (FXA) that gives up one quarter of the four-cent move off of the August 88 cent bottom. The decline was triggered by dismal employment data showing that 10,200 jobs were lost in August. Many analysts had been … [Read more...]

Update on Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Pennies

Those who bought my Trade Alert on the Freeport McMoRan (FCX) October $28-$30 bull call spread at $1.68 or best two days ago will be thrilled to see the charts below. They were prepared by my friends at Stockcharts.com, who offer a very reasonable subscription technical analysis product (click here for their site http://stockcharts.com ). After testing $26 three times over … [Read more...]

September 12, 2013

Global Market Comments September 12, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (BUY APPLE ON THE DIP), (AAPL), (CHL) (PICKING UP FREEPORT MCMORAN), (FCX), (CU), (ECH), ($SSEC) Apple Inc. (AAPL) China Mobile Limited (CHL) Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU) iShares MSCI Chile Capped (ECH) Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index … [Read more...]

Buy Apple on the Dip

apple-1

Buy the rumor, sell the news. That was again the lesson of yesterday’s new product launch, where Apple (AAPL) rolled out their new premium 5s and low-end 5c iPhones. So many commentators heaped such abuse on the company in the run up to the release that today’s weakness was a sure thing. Failure to announce a deal with China Mobile (CHL) in Beijing last night was the … [Read more...]

Picking Up Freeport McMoRan

Map-Where to Find Copper

It is clear from the improving economic data from China that the hard landing scenario is off the table. This is great news for the producers of everything that the Middle Kingdom buys in bulk, especially copper. If you like copper, you’ve got to love Freeport McMoRan, one of the world’s largest producers for the red metal. On top of these rapidly improving fundamentals, the … [Read more...]

September 11, 2013

Global Market Comments September 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MY 2013 STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK), (SPY), (IWM), (AAPL), (TLT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) Apple Inc. (AAPL) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) … [Read more...]

My 2013 Stock Market Outlook

Wall Street Bull

It’s time to put on your buying boots and throw caution to the wind. The S&P 500 (SPY) is likely to rebound as much as 9% from the recent 1,630 low to as high as 1,780 by the end of December. What’s more, stocks could add another 10%-20% in 2014. The nimble and the aggressive here will be rewarded handsomely. Those who keep their hands in their pockets will sadly watch the … [Read more...]

September 10, 2013

Global Market Comments September 10, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BAILING ON MY OIL SHORT), (USO), (QUANTITATIVE EASING EXPLAINED TO A 12 YEAR OLD), (TESTIMONIAL) United States Oil (USO) … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

lunch-san-fran

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Bailing on My Oil Short

Tesla Model X

We got the dollar drop over the weekend that I was expecting. There was no way that the war was going to start before Obama gave his speech on Tuesday and congress votes yea or nay later on. So when the missiles failed to show by the Monday morning opening, they took Texas tea down a full buck. The Charlie Rose interview with Bashar al-Assad, where he blamed it all on the … [Read more...]

Quantitative Easing Explained to a Twelve Year Old

QE Explained youtube

 I know you spend all day trolling the Internet for the most entertaining video on YouTube every day. What, you don’t? I’m shocked, shocked. That’s OK, so I’ve done it for you. Click on the link below to watch a six-minute animation explaining quantitative easing to a 12 year old, using cute little cuddly figures. Is Ben Bernanke a plumber who was called to fix a pipe only … [Read more...]

September 9, 2013

Global Market Comments September 9, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JOIN THE INVEST LIKE A MONSTER SAN FRANCISCO TRADING CONFERENCE) (SEPTEMBER 11 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (THE EMERGING “BUY” ON EMERGING MARKETS), (EWW), (EZA), (IDX), (THD), (EWM), (EPHE), (GXG), (ECH) iShares MSCI Mexico Capped (EWW) iShares MSCI South Africa Index (EZA) Market Vectors Indonesia … [Read more...]

Join the “Invest Like a Monster” San Francisco Trading Conference

Trademonster

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest Like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape who will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance. Tickets are available for a … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the September 11 Global Strategy Webinar

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, September 11 at 12:00 noon EDT. Login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to … [Read more...]

The Emerging “BUY” on Emerging Markets

Thai Dancer

No asset class has been beaten more severely this year than emerging markets. Since the March, 2011 high, the iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM) has plunged from $48 to $35.80, a loss of 25%. Individual markets have fared far worse. The Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (IDX) has taken a 39% haircut, while the Powershares India Portfolio ETF (PIN) has cratered by 46%. It … [Read more...]

September 6, 2013

Global Market Comments September 6, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS NEW ALL TIME HIGH) (SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON POSTPONED TO NOVEMBER 1), (THE TAX RATE FALLACY), (THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)   … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High

TA Performance Inception

The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a year-to-date gain of 40.53%, a new all time high. Performance since inception 33 months ago soared to 95.58%. This pegs the average annualized return at 34.75%. Some 71% of all Trade Alerts since the beginning have been profitable. Carving out the closed 2013 trades alone, 41 out of 50 have made money, a … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

lunch-san-fran

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

The Tax Rate Fallacy

irs

When anyone starts lecturing you that the US has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world, just turn around, walk away, and pretend you never heard them. This person is either ignorant about this country’s taxation system, or is deliberately trying to deceive or mislead you. According to a report released by the Internal Revenue Service, America’s tax collection … [Read more...]

September 5, 2013

Global Market Comments September 5, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (OCTOBER 18 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (TAKING PROFITS ON MY EURO SHORT),  (FXE), (EURO), (POPULATION BOMB ECHOES), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (RJA) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT) The Mosaic Company (MOS) Agrium Inc. (AGU) Teucrium … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on My Euro Shorts

Picture-Strange

It looks like the (FXE) gave us the double top at $133 which I predicted in my August 28 webinar, which very conveniently, was the lower strike of my Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) September, 2013 $133-$135 bear put spread. We have since backed off $3, and lower levels beckon. I originally wrote this Trade Alert on July 18 while on the express train from Berlin to … [Read more...]

Population Bomb Echoes

Crowd - Overcrowding

Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse of the world’s food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat (WEAT), corn (CORN), soybeans (SOYB), and rice. The never dull, and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he … [Read more...]

September 4, 2013

Global Market Comments September 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY I’M KEEPING MY OIL SHORT), (USO), (SCO), (A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON), (ON THAT TESLA RECOMMENDATION), (TSLA) United States Oil (USO) ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil (SCO) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) … [Read more...]

Why I’m Keeping My Oil Short

Unicef map

Let’s call this the weekend of love. On Friday morning, we were looking forward to a long weekend of missiles raining down on Syria and the regional conflagration that would follow. The price of oil reflected as much, with west Texas intermediate trading all the way up to $112.50. Then the British Parliament voted against their country’s participation under any … [Read more...]

A Cow Based Economics Lesson

HappyCow

SOCIALISM -You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor. COMMUNISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk. FASCISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk. NAZISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you. BUREAUCRATISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws … [Read more...]

On That Tesla Recommendation

JT with Tesla

Will the person who bought Tesla shares (TSLA) on my recommendation last year at $30 please email me? I was traveling in Europe over the summer and lost your email address. I would like to get a testimonial from you. The stock hit $173.70 today, and is up 580% from your cost, making it the top performing US stock this year. With the money you’ve made you can probably buy a … [Read more...]

An Evening With “Government Motors”

GM-CEO-Dan-Akerson-1

Long-term readers of this letter are well aware of my antipathy towards General Motors (GM). For decades, the company turned a deaf ear to customer complaints about shoddy, uncompetitive products, arcane management practices, entitled dealers, and a totally inward looking view of the world that was rapidly globalizing. It was like watching a close friend kill himself through … [Read more...]

Why Ben Bernanke Hates Me

zimbabwe-1

I don’t just think he hates me. He truly despises me. In fact, he does everything he can to put me out of business. Take the taper, for example. If I am right and he doesn’t end quantitative easing, then my model-trading portfolio goes through the roof. If he does, it will crater. Many other independent analysts agree with me, including several Fed governors. But is he … [Read more...]

August 30, 2013

Global Market Comments August 30, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY I’M DOUBLING MY YEN SHORT), (FXY), (YCS), (GET READY FOR THE NEXT GOLDEN AGE) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) … [Read more...]

Why I’m Doubling My Yen Short

Japanese Girl

The summer us coming to a close this weekend, and the longer term, fundamentally driven trends that have been sunning themselves at the beach are about to reassert themselves. The sideways churning moves on low volume that started as early as March are about to come to an end. Therefore, it is time to bulk up my portfolio. So I am taking this opportunity to double up my … [Read more...]

Get Ready for the Next Golden Age

'57 T-Bird

I believe that the global economy is setting up for a new golden age reminiscent of the one the United States enjoyed during the 1950’s, and which I still remember fondly. This is not some pie in the sky prediction. It simply assumes a continuation of existing trends in demographics, technology, politics, and economics. The implications for your investment portfolio will be … [Read more...]

August 29, 2013

Global Market Comments August 29, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (BATTLE TESTING YOUR PORTFOLIO), (SPY), (USO), (FXE), (FXY), (YCS), (GLD), (SLV), (TLT), (THE COST OF CLEAN COAL), (KOL), (WHO IS BEN BERNANKE?) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) United States Oil (USO) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) SPDR … [Read more...]

Battle Testing Your Portfolio

Soldier-Fire

The great thing about the sudden $5 pop is the price of oil since Monday is that it battle tests your portfolio. You really don't know what you own and the risks it entails until something like this comes along. I'll explain why. For a start, you get a very clear idea of which of your assets are of the "RISK ON" variety, and which are of the "RISK OFF" persuasion. This is … [Read more...]

The Price Tag for Clean Coal

KOL 8-28-13

I wanted to get the low down on clean coal (KOL) to see how clean it really is, so I visited some friends at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The modern day descendent of the Atomic Energy Commission, where I had a student job in the seventies, the leading researcher on laser induced nuclear fission, and the administrator of our atomic weapons stockpile, I figured they’d … [Read more...]

Who is Ben Bernanke?

220px-Ben_Bernanke_official_portrait

Since nothing less than the fate of the free world depends on the judgment of Ben Bernanke these days, I thought I’d touch base with David Wessel, the Wall Street Journal economics editor, who has just published In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic. I doubted David could tell me anything more about the former Princeton professor I didn’t already know. I … [Read more...]

August 28, 2013

Global Market Comments August 28, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (OIL SPIKE SENDS TRADERS SCRAMBLING), (USO), (GLD), (ORDER EXECUTION 101), (THE GREAT COPPER CRASH OF 2013), (CU), (FCX) United States Oil (USO) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU) Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) … [Read more...]

Which One Did You Say I Should Buy?

Bashar al-Assad

Wow! That was some speech! Secretary of State, John Kerry, was certainly rattling the saber last night when he laid out the irrefutable evidence confirming the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Defense Secretary, Chuck Hagel, then upped the ante by asserting that US military forces are “ready to go.” Oil (USO) hit a two and a half year high at $109, and gold (GLD) finally … [Read more...]

Order Execution 101

Diver

New Global Trading Dispatch subscribers have requested guidelines on how to execute my trade alerts. So I thought I’d take some time today to expound on the basics of order execution 101. There are three basic ways to intelligently get an order into the market: 1) The No Brainer Average In. Buy half at the receipt of the alert and half at the close. It’s that simple. If … [Read more...]

The Great Copper Crash of 2013

Pennies

When Dr. Copper (CU), the only commodity with a PhD in economics, suddenly collapses from a heart attack, risk takers everywhere have to sit up and take notice. Since the 2011 top, the red metal has collapsed a shocking 35%. So called because of its uncanny ability to predict the future of the global economy, copper is warning of dire things to come. The price drop suggests … [Read more...]

August 27, 2013

Global Market Comments August 27, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE TECHNICAL/FUNDAMENTAL TUG OF WAR), (SPY), (INDU), (IWM), (AND MY PREDICTION IS….), (TESTIMONIAL), (THERE ARE NO GURUS) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) … [Read more...]

The Technical/Fundamental Tug of War: Who Will Win?

Neanderthol

For the last few weeks, I have had two groups of analysts screaming in my ears. Fundamental researchers are asserting that at $105 per share in earnings, generating a price earnings multiple of 15, stocks are at the historic middle of a 10-22 range. Q2 earnings are over, and modestly outperformed on the upside, although not with the magnitude seen in recent quarters. Plus, … [Read more...]

And My Prediction Is….

The Beatles

Take those predictions, forecasts, and prognostications with so many grains of salt. They have a notorious track record for being completely wrong, even when made by the leading experts in their fields. In preparing for my autumn lecture series, I came across the following nuggets and thought I’d share them with you. There are some real howlers. 1876  “This 'telephone' has … [Read more...]

Riding With Treasury Secretary Jack Lew

Jack Lew

I was perusing my morning email in Zermatt a few weeks ago, and spotted the familiar White House address with the .gov ending. Would I be interested in meeting with the new Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew? It was just what I needed to lure me out of my Alpine lair back to the USA. I responded “yes,” and instructions followed to meet him at the private jet terminal at San Francisco … [Read more...]

August 23, 2013

Global Market Comments August 23, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HOW US JOB LOSSES WILL END),  (FXI), (PIN), (EWY), (VNM), (OPTIONS FOR THE BEGINNER) (BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) PowerShares India (PIN) iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY) Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM) … [Read more...]