The Great Race for Battery Technology

Energizer Bunny

One hundred years from now, historians will probably date the beginning of the fall of the American Empire to 1986. That is the year President Ronald Reagan ordered Jimmy Carter’s solar panels torn down from the White House roof, and when Chinese Premier Deng Xiaoping launched his secret “863” program to make his country a global technology leader. Is the End Near for the … [Read more...]

November 5, 2013

Global Market Comments November 5, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY I’M HAMMERING THE BOND MARKET), (TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (LINE), (MUB), (HYG), (JNK), (TAKE A LOOK AT OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM), (OXY), (BP), (OIL), (UNG),  (NSANY), (XOM) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond ETF … [Read more...]

Why I’m Hammering the Bond Market

Musical Chairs

Those lucky traders who have been following my Trade Alert service are well aware that I have been hamming the bond market for the past week. These new positions were a major factor in adding an impressive 5% to my model trading portfolio P&L during a week when there was very little happening in the real world. There is a method to my madness. This was supposed to be … [Read more...]

November 4, 2013

Global Market Comments November 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER BLASTS TO NEW ALL TIME HIGH), (FXE), (TLT), (TBT), SPY), (AAPL), (NOVEMBER 6 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (TESTIMONIAL ) (ALL I WANT TO DO IS RETIRE) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) SPDR S&P … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the November 6 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, November 6 at 12:00 noon EST. Login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to … [Read more...]

November 1, 2013

Global Market Comments November 1, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (COVERING SHORTS IN THE EURO), (FXE), (EUO), (THE CHIHUAHUA GLUT) (NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS), (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) … [Read more...]

Covering Shorts in the Euro

Euro Graphic

This short position has been a total home run of a trade, with the Euro going into freefall when the ink was barely dry on the Trade Alert. Rumors swept the foreign exchange pits this morning of a potential interest rate cut by the European Central Bank next week, which they really should have done a long time ago. Otherwise, the strong continental currency will strangle a … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Chihuahua Glut

Paris Hilton

Recently, I wrote about the Nevadan wrinkle in the housing crisis where distressed homeowners are letting their horses go wild to make their mortgage payment. Now neighboring California is facing a Chihuahua glut, where evicted homeowners are handing over their pets to animal shelters. The diminutive Mexican canine enjoyed a boom in popularity in recent years, thanks to … [Read more...]

Notice to Military Subscribers

Soldier

To the dozens of subscribers in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service! I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you cash out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from … [Read more...]

October 31, 2013

Global Market Comments October 31, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TRADE ALERT ON RISK CONTROL), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (SPY) (MY TAKE ON OBAMACARE), (XLV) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) … [Read more...]

Trade Alert on Risk Control

Market

In the wake of the Federal Reserve’s decision not to taper and to leave interest rates unchanged, our long positions are soaring and our short positions are collapsing. No surprise here, as both the Mad Hedge Fund Trader and the Mad Day Trader nailed the market’s reaction well in advance with a profusion of timely Trade Alerts over the last few days. Treasury bonds have … [Read more...]

My Take on Obamacare

Obamacare site

So much BS is flying about over the Obamacare issue that I can’t resist the temptation to put in my two cents worth. There was no chance this was going to work on day one, and I warned senior administration officials as much on many different occasions. Even the Massachusetts health care plan only saw 100 sign ups in the first month, and it was supported by both … [Read more...]

October 30, 2013

Global Market Comments October 30, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHEN GREAT MINDS THINK ALIKE), (SPY), (HEDGE FUNDS CIRCLING OVER THE EUROPEAN WRECKAGE), (BWX), (IGOV), (ITLY), (EU), (BUND), (FXE), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) SPDR Barclays International Treasury Bd (BWX) iShares International Treasury Bond (IGOV) PowerShares DB Italian Treas Bond ETN … [Read more...]

When Great Minds Think Alike

Goldilocks

Exactly 84 years ago from yesterday, the Great 1929 stock market crash occurred. The Dow Average plunged a stunning 30 points to 230, a one-day decline of 12%. The ticker tape lagged the market by two hours, and the newly bankrupt were jumping out of downtown windows. I remember it like it was yesterday. Well not really. But a number of friends over the decades lived … [Read more...]

Hedge Funds Circling Over the European Wreckage

George Clooney

Have you ever wanted to spend your summers basking in the sunlight at your mountain top Tuscan villa, surveying the manicured vineyards which produce your own estate bottled wine? Are you drawn by the cachet of claiming George Clooney as a celebrity neighbor on the model strewn shores of Lake Como? How about a luxury apartment that is walking distance from the Vatican? Hedge … [Read more...]

October 29, 2013

Global Market Comments October 29, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD DAY TRADER EDUCATIONAL WEBINAR), (THE RUN IN BONDS IS OVER), (TLT), (JNK), (HYG), (MUB), (ELD), (LINE), (AUSTERITY HITS WALL STREET) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG) iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF … [Read more...]

Mad Day Trader Educational Webinar

Jim Parker

Jim Parker, The Mad Day Trader, will be hosting an educational webinar on Wednesday, October 30 at 12:00 EDT. Ignore Jim Parker at your peril. Since he started his Mad Day Trading service in April, he has clocked a stunning 150% profit, independently audited. There’s no better trading service than the proven. Get any piece of that, and you have made your year. To register for … [Read more...]

The Run in Bonds is Over

The End is Near-sign

This is a bet that the ten-year Treasury bonds, now trading at a 2.50% yield, don’t fall below 2.40% over the next 14 trading days. It has to make this move on top of an unbelievable decline in yields from 3.0% to 2.50% since September. And it has to do it quickly. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday to consider whether they should raise rates, lower them, or leave them … [Read more...]

October 28, 2013

Global Market Comments October 28, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (WHY US STOCKS ARE DIRT CHEAP), (SPY), (IWM), (QQQ), (TSLA) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

October 25, 2013

Global Market Comments October 25, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FEEL LIKE INVESTING IN A STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM?), (GAF), (AFK), (EZA), (WHO SAYS THERE AREN’T ANY JOBS?), (WILL GOLD SUFFER THE FATE OF THE $10,000 BILL?) (GLD), (GDX) (THE TWELVE DAY YEAR) SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF) Market Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK) iShares MSCI … [Read more...]

Feel Like Investing in a State Sponsor of Terrorism?

African

How about buying shares in a country whose leaders have stolen $400 billion in the last decade and have seen 300 foreign workers kidnapped? Another country lost four wars in the last 40 years. Still interested? How about a country that suffers one of the world's highest AIDs rates, endures regular insurrections where all of the Westerners get massacred, and racked up 5 … [Read more...]

Will Gold Coins Suffer the Fate of the $10,000 Bill?

$10,000 Bill

The conspiracy theorists will love this one. Buried deep in the bowels of the 2,000 page health care bill was a new requirement for gold dealers to file Form 1099's for all retail sales by individuals over $600. Specifically, the measure can be found in section 9006 of the Patient Protection and Affordability Act of 2010. For foreign readers unencumbered by such concerns, … [Read more...]

October 24, 2013

Global Market Comments October 24, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE CASE AGAINST TREASURY BONDS), (TBT), (TLT), (MY PERSONAL LEADING ECONMIC INDICATOR), (HMC), (NSANY), (DXJ) (A FILM REVIEW OF “MARGIN CALL”) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY) WisdomTree … [Read more...]

Film Review of “Margin Call”

Kevin Spacey

Now it’s time for some cultural edification. I first became aware of “Margin Call” as a pre-production project four years ago when news leaked out that the principal actors, Kevin Stacey, Demi Moore, Stanley Tucci, and Jeremy Irons, were reading The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader to learn about the industry and get in character. The plot covers a 24-hour period on the eve … [Read more...]

October 23, 2013

Global Market Comments October 23, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE WORST IS YET TO COME), (SPY), (MY OLD PAL, LEONARDO FIBONACCI), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) … [Read more...]

The Worst is yet to Come

White House in Decay

I was not surprised to see the belated September nonfarm payroll come in at a miserable 148,000. It clearly shows that companies were already hunkering down with their overheads in the run-up to the recent DC slugfest. The figure had been delayed by the Washington shutdown, which froze all government data releases. In fact, the job market is weaker than even this number … [Read more...]

My Old Pal, Leonardo Fibonacci

Leonardo Fibonacci

I remember the 12th century like it was yesterday. In those days, the leading intellectuals used to get together and drink wine by the gallon, which then was really little more than rotten grape juice. The problem was that we all used to pass out before anybody came up with a great idea. Then someone started importing coffee from the Middle East and thinkers stayed awake long … [Read more...]

October 22, 2013

Global Market Comments October 22, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE INVEST LIKE A MONSTER SAN FRANCISCO TRADING CONFERENCE) (WHAT TO DO NOW?), (SPY), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the “Invest like a Monster” San Francisco Trading Conference

Trademonster

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape that will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance. Tickets are available for a … [Read more...]

What to Do Now?

Airplane Seat

I am completing one of the best trading years of my 45-year career in the stock market. The Trade Alert service is up by a stunning 41.5% so far in 2013 and by 96.55% since inception 35 months ago. Pretty much every forecast I made for the year came true (click here for “My 2013 Annual Asset Class Review”). The question now is: “What to do here?”  How do I beat the … [Read more...]

October 21, 2013

Global Market Comments October 21, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (SEND ME YOUR IDEAS), (REVISITING THE FIRST SILVER BUBBLE), (SLV), (SLW) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW) … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Send Me Your Ideas

The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is now approaching its seventh year of publication. During this time, I have religiously been pumping out 1,500 words a day, or eight double spaced typed pages, of original, independent minded, hard hitting, and often wickedly funny research. I’ve been covering stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, real estate, and agricultural … [Read more...]

Revisiting the First Silver Bubble

Nelson Bunker Hunt

With smoke still rising from the ruins of the recent silver crash, I thought I'd touch base with a wizened and grizzled old veteran who still remembers the last time a bubble popped for the white metal. That would be Mike Robertson, who runs Robertson Wealth Management, one of the largest and most successful registered investment advisors in the country. Mike is the last … [Read more...]

October 18, 2013

Global Market Comments October 18, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (OCTOBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (THE SHUTDOWN IS OVER…FOR NOW), (SPY), (EUROPEAN STYLE HOMELAND SECURITY), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the October 23 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, October 23 at 12:00 noon EDT. Login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to … [Read more...]

The Shutdown is Over….For Now

Arm Wrestling

After 16 days of high drama, bluster, and handwringing, the Great Washington Shutdown of 2013 is finally over. President Obama held fast and won. The Republicans kept changing their goals by the day and lost. But what we got was anything but a resolution. The next shutdown is now scheduled for January 15, and the Treasury bond default has been pushed back to March, … [Read more...]

European Style Homeland Security

CleeseJohn2

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent events in Libya, and have therefore raised their security level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.” The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940, when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized from … [Read more...]

October 17, 2013

Global Market Comments October 17, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DOGS OF THE DOW REVISTED) (XME), (XLB), (DBB), (JJG), (MOO), (DBA), (GLD), (SLV), (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH) SPDR S&P Metals & Mining (XME) Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJG) Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF … [Read more...]

Dogs of the Dow Revisited

Dogs Playing Cards

Sitting at my lakefront estate at Lake Tahoe’s Incline Village, I began to cogitate on what my trading portfolio for 2014 should look like. Then I thought, “Why wait?” Better to get the message out now than wait two and a half more months. The entry point for risk assets is better now than it will be early next year. So let’s get the lead out and start posting those … [Read more...]

Please Use My Free Data Base Search

Search

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up. You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box with the … [Read more...]

October 16, 2013

Global Market Comments October 16, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (ONSHORING TAKES ANOTHER GREAT LEAP FORWARD), (TSLA), (UMX), (EWW), (THE BULL MARKET IN MUSTANGS) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) ProShares Ultra MSCI Mexico Cppd IMI (UMX) iShares MSCI Mexico Capped (EWW) … [Read more...]

Onshoring Takes another Great Leap Forward

Man Fixing Machine

Have you tried to hire a sewing machine operator lately? I haven’t, but I have friends running major apparel companies who have (guess where I get all those tight fitting jeans?) Guess what? There aren’t any to be had. Since, 1990, some 77% of the American textiles workforce has been lost, when China joined the world economy in force, and the offshoring trend took flight. … [Read more...]

The Bull Market in Mustangs

Horses-Mustangs

Sitting here in the Silver State of Nevada, high in the Sierras, I feel obliged to comment on a bull market of a different sort. The Western US has found a new wrinkle in the housing collapse, where homeowners are desperately struggling to cut living costs to meet the next doubling of their adjustable rate mortgage payments on their underwater houses. Raising horses can … [Read more...]

October 15, 2013

Global Market Comments October 15, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (YALE’S ROBERT SHILLER BAGS NOBEL ECONOMICS PRIZE), (THE TRUE COST OF OIL), (USO), (XOM) United States Oil (USO) Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) … [Read more...]

Yale’s Robert Shiller Bags Nobel Economic Prize

Robert Shiller

It isn’t often when a friend of mine wins a Nobel Prize. But that’s what happened this weekend when the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the prestigious award to Yale University’s Robert Shiller. Shiller, along with Eugene Fama, and Lars Peter Hanson of the University of Chicago will share the $1.23 million cash award for their work on market pricing of … [Read more...]

The True Cost of Oil

ObamaSaudi-1

My annual electric bill here in sunny San Francisco comes to $4,800 a year. Since the California power authorities have set a goal of 33% alternative energy sources by 2020, PG&E (PGE) has the most aggressive green energy program in the country (click here for “The Solar Boom in California”. More expensive solar, wind, geothermal, and biodiesel power sources mean that my … [Read more...]

October 14, 2013

Global Market Comments October 14, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS WORSE THAN YOU THINK), (A SAD FAREWELL TO HELEN THOMAS) … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

The Government Shutdown is Worse Than You Think

Fed. Govt Closed

I am rapidly coming to the depressing conclusion that the government shutdown, now in its 15th day, is going to have a far greater impact on the economy than most economists realize. When the markets figure this out, the result for share prices could be dire, putting my entire yearend bull case at risk. My earlier forecast was that 0.5% of GPD growth would get shaved from … [Read more...]

October 11, 2013

Global Market Comments October 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JOIN THE INVEST LIKE A MONSTER SAN FRANCISCO TRADING CONFERENCE), (APPLE IS READY TO EXPLODE), (AAPL), (CHL) Apple Inc. (AAPL) China Mobile Limited (CHL) … [Read more...]

Join the “Invest Like a Monster” San Francisco Trading Conference

Trademonster

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape that will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance. Tickets are available for a … [Read more...]

Apple is Ready to Explode

Gibraltar

You have to be impressed how Apple shares have been trading during the Washington shutdown and the debt ceiling crisis. While other highflying technology stocks have crashed and burned, Apple has held like the Rock of Gibraltar. Is this presaging much better things to come? After the bar was set extremely low in the run up to the iPhone 5s launch, there has been an onslaught … [Read more...]

October 10, 2013

Global Market Comments October 10, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE BEST ETF’S OF 2013), Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (KWT) First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (QCLN) Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX) The PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW) The First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy Index … [Read more...]

The Best ETF’s of 2013

House - Solar Panels

I’m sure you all spent the better part of last January explaining to your clients that they should be pouring all of their money into alternative energy, social media, and biotech ETF’s. What! You didn’t? You obviously failed to get the memo. Well, neither did I. Yes, I know this sounds like the makeup of the Sierra Club Pension Fund, if such a thing exists. Take a look at … [Read more...]

A Note on the Tesla Fire

JT with Tesla

You can’ keep a good stock down. That’s the obvious message on Tesla (TLSA) shares in the wake of the fire that consumed one of its $80,000 Model’s S-1’s on a Washington state road after it ran over the rear bumper of the truck it was following. The video was quickly plastered all over YouTube (click here to view). This was the first S-1 to catch fire since the production … [Read more...]

October 9, 2013

Global Market Comments October 9, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CUTTING BACK MY RISK), (SPY), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (AAPL), (NFLX), (HLF), (VIX), (WHAT’S GOING ON WITH THE VOLATILITY INDEX?), (VIX), (VXX) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Netflix, Inc. … [Read more...]

Cutting Back My Risk

Fed Govt Closed

By now, you have figured out that I executed a major “derisking” of my model trading portfolio today, cutting my exposure by two thirds. Most of these positions only had a few basis points in maximum profit left, so bailing here was a no brainer, a case of “Basic Risk Control 101.” Better to laugh about the market in a few days or weeks, than cry. My profits this year are so … [Read more...]

What’s Going on With the VIX?

Man-Pogo Stick

After crawling off the mat at the 12% level, and rising all the way back up to 21%, traders are wondering if the Volatility Index (VIX) is finally coming back to life. Or is this just another dead cat bounce? It wasn’t supposed to work that way. Falling markets should send investors scrambling to buy downside protection in the form of put options, which would automatically … [Read more...]

October 8, 2013

Global Market Comments October 8, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE NEW WAR ON HEDGE FUND MANAGERS), (TEA WITH SECRETARY OF STATE GEORGE SHULTZ) … [Read more...]

The New War on Hedge Fund Managers

Chinese Prioson Guards

Yang Yanming was slowly led from his cell by two burly uniformed guards in Beijing’s central prison to a waiting van in the courtyard, his hands cuffed behind him and his head bowed. Once in the vehicle, he was strapped to a gurney, hooked up to an IV, and given a highly concentrated injection of sodium pentobarbitol. Minutes later, a technician checked his pulse, and … [Read more...]

October 7, 2013

Global Market Comments October 7, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (SAY GOODBYE TO THE WASHINGTON DISCOUNT), (XLY), (UCC), (XLI), (UXI), (XLK), (ROM), (XLV), (RXL), (THIS IS NOT YOUR FATHER’S NUCLEAR POWER PLANT) Consumer Discret Select Sector SPDR (XLY) ProShares Ultra Consumer Services (UCC) Industrial Select Sector SPDR … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Say Goodbye to the Washington Discount

National Parks Closed

If it hasn’t happened by today, then it is no more than a week away. The deep discount suffered by American stocks is about to go away. Thanks to the manufactured uncertainty emanating from the nation’s capital created by the government shutdown, stocks have been selling at a 10% or more discount to where they should be. As things stand, the shutdown is chopping about 1/8% a … [Read more...]

This is Not Your Father’s Nuclear Power Plant

NuScale System Design

On my recent trip to Oregon I met with venture capital investors in NuScale Power, which is trailblazing, the brave new world of “new” nuclear. Their technology has been pioneered by Dr. Jose Reyes, dean of the School of Engineering at Oregon State University in Corvallis. This is definitely not your father’s nuclear power plant. The company has applied for design … [Read more...]

October 4, 2013

Global Market Comments October 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (OCTOBER 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (AN EVENING WITH THE CHINESE INTELLIGENCE SERVICE), (FXI), (CYB), (BIDU), (CHL), (BYDDF), (CHA) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB) Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) China Mobile Limited (CHL) BYD Company Ltd. (BYDDF) China Telecom Corp. Ltd. (CHA) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the October 9 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, October 9 at 12:00 noon EDT. Login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take … [Read more...]

October 3, 2013

Global Market Comments October 3, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JOIN THE INVEST LIKE A MONSTER SAN FRANCISCO TRADING CONFERENCE), (THE MAD DAY TRADER’S Q4 TARGETS), (SPY), (QQQ), (TLT), (USO), (UNG), (GLD), (FXY), (FXE), (AN AFTERNOON WITH DR. PAUL EHRLICH), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) iShares Barclays … [Read more...]

Join the “Invest like a Monster” San Francisco Trading Conference

Trademonster

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape that will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance. Tickets are available for a … [Read more...]

The Mad Day Trader’s Q4 Targets

MDT Logo

Jim Parker, The Mad Day Trader, has published his targets for a broad range of asset classes for the fourth quarter of 2013. The numbers are the product of his proprietary model, which he has developed over the past 40 years, and generated one of the most outstanding track records in the business. Ignore Jim’s views at your peril! Jim says that stocks will bottom in coming … [Read more...]

An Afternoon with Dr. Paul Ehrlich

India - Food

Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world’s food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. The never dull and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects that global warming … [Read more...]

October 2, 2013

Global Market Comments October 2, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TEXAS TEA TAKES A DIVE), (USO), (UNG), (SCO), (DTO), (A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED OPTIONS) United States Oil (USO) United States Natural Gas (UNG) ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil (SCO) PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short ETN (DTO) … [Read more...]

Texas Tea Takes a Dive

Oil-Swimming

Take a Look at the chart below and you will see that the price of oil is breaking key support. Texas tea has now backed off $13 since the end of August, and lower prices beckon. It turned out that oil made an initial peak with the Egyptian Army’s ferocious and bloody attack on the Muslim Brotherhood. I hate to sound cynical here, but count the daily bodies in the street, … [Read more...]

A Special Note on Exercised Options

There are only 13 days left to the options expiration on October 18. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s model trade portfolio has six positions that are deep in-the-money that expire that day. So, it is important that we tread carefully to get the bull benefit. I received a few emails from readers whose option holdings have already been exercised against them, and have asked me for … [Read more...]

October 1, 2013

Global Market Comments October 1, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JAPAN TO LAUNCH IRA’S), (DXJ), (FXY), (YCS), (KISS THAT UNION JOB GOODBYE) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) … [Read more...]

Japan to Launch IRA’s

Girl - Ticker

The Japanese government is about to introduce Individual Retirement Account for individual investors for the first time. The move is part of prime minister Shinzo Abe’s multifaceted efforts to revive Japan’s economy, and could unleash as much as $690 billion in net buying into Japanese equities by 2018. The move was inspired American IRA’s, which were first introduced in … [Read more...]

Kiss That Union Job Goodbye

Line Up - Queue

Those of you counting on getting your old union assembly line job back in Detroit can forget it. The eight year forecast published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 4.19 million jobs will be gained in the US in professional and business services, followed by 4 million health care and social assistance jobs, while 1.2 million will be lost in manufacturing. This … [Read more...]

September 30, 2013

Global Market Comments September 30, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (HAVE CALM WATERS RETURNED FOR SHIPPING STOCKS?), ($BDI), (DRYS), (SEA), (GNK), (RIO), (BHP), (KOL), (FXA), (EWA) Baltic Exchange Dry Index ($BDI) DryShips, Inc. (DRYS) Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (SEA) Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. (GNK) Rio Tinto … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Have Calm Waters Returned for Shipping Stocks?

Lutine Bell

Traders are stunned by the performance of the shipping stocks this month, which have been far and away a top market performer. The big questions they are now asking are “Is it real?” and “Is it sustainable?” This sector has been down for so long that most investors left it for dead a long time ago. All that was missing was the tolling of the Lutine Bell at the insurance … [Read more...]

September 27, 2013

Global Market Comments September 27, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (GOING BACK INTO JAPAN), (DXJ), ($NIKK), (FXY), (YCS), (BE CAREFUL, YOUR PC IS WATCHING) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) Nikkei Index ($NIKK) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) … [Read more...]

Going Back Into Japan

Japanese Fan Dancer

The smart people I know believe that prime minister Shinzo Abe’s plans to revive the Japanese economy will succeed, paving the way for a decade long bull market that will take the Nikkei Index ($NIKK) up to new highs. The dumb people I know argue vociferously and passionately that Abe will fail miserably, and that the economy and stocks will crash and burn as early as next … [Read more...]

Be Careful, Your PC is Watching

computer

Hey! You there, staring at this monitor. This is your PC talking to you. No, not you over there standing in the background. I’m talking to the guy sitting in front of me poking at my keys. Ouch! That one hurt! So you thought no one was watching, did you? Let me set you straight. About a month ago you clicked on a certain website, and I installed myself as a cookie on your … [Read more...]

September 26, 2013

Global Market Comments September 26, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE GOVERNMENT THAT CRIED WOLF), (BREAKFAST WITH BOONE PICKENS) … [Read more...]

The Government That Cried Wolf

Obama

Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, is warning us that the government will run out of money on Monday. Maybe, by rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, he can continue crucial payments, like Social Security and veterans benefits, through October 16. After that, we are officially broke. Bills for what the government has already spent will go unpaid. Welcome to the deadbeat … [Read more...]

Breakfast With Boone Pickens

Boone Pickens

Reformed oil man, repenting sinner, and borne again environmentalist, T. Boone Pickens, Jr. says that “When we turn the US green, it will have the best economy ever.” I met the spry, homespun billionaire at San Francisco’s Mark Hopkins on a leg of his self-financed national campaign to get America to kick its dangerous dependence on foreign oil imports. For the past 30 … [Read more...]

September 25, 2013

Global Market Comments September 25, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS THREE YEAR 100% GAIN), (JOIN THE INVEST LIKE A MONSTER SAN FRANCISCO TRADING CONFERENCE), (WHY I’M BUYING THE TREASURY BOND MARKET), (TLT), (TBT) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) … [Read more...]

Join the “Invest Like a Monster” San Francisco Trading Conference

Trademonster

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest Like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape who will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance. Tickets are available for a … [Read more...]

Why I’m Buying the Treasury Bond Market

Quad

The Fed’s decision not to taper, and therefore keep interest rates lower for longer, gave a great flashing green light to the bond market. It has been off to the races ever since, with the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) blasting through resistance this morning to new two month high. As this is off a double bottom on the charts that has been unfolding since … [Read more...]

September 24, 2013

Global Market Comments September 24, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APPLE’S BLOWOUT NUMBERS SEND BEARS SCAMPERING), (AAPL), (QCOM), (CHL), (SSNLF), (MSFT), (GOOG), (EXPIRATION OF MY YEN BEAR PUT SPREAD), (MY PERSONAL LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR), (NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS) Apple Inc. (AAPL) QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) China Mobile Limited (CHL) Samsung … [Read more...]

Apple’s Blowout Numbers Send Bears Scampering

Line Up - Queue

Apple’s (AAPL) report this morning that it sold a stunning 9 million model 5s and 5c iPhones has bowled over even the company’s most optimistic cheerleaders and sent the bears running. The consensus estimate had been only for 5 million units. At the opening highs, shares were up $30 to $497, well above the $468 that prevailed at my September 11 Trade Alert to buy the … [Read more...]

Expiration of my Yen Bear Put Spread

Japanese Girl

Add this one to the “WIN” column. I strapped on this position because I believed that the world was adding risk, expecting major bull moves, once it becomes clear that the multiple disasters now threatening the world don’t actually happen. The list includes war with Syria, the taper, the Bernanke replacement, the debt ceiling crisis, another sequester, yada, yada, yada.  A … [Read more...]

My Personal Leading Economic Indicator

Troll Dolls

One of the joys of having small children is that you get to know the guy at the local plumbing supply shop really well. It’s amazing what will fit down a toilet these days. He once told me that when Troll Dolls hit the market, every plumber in the country was guaranteed a job for life. When I went there yesterday I thought I’d pick up some leading economic indicators as … [Read more...]

Notice to Military Subscribers

Soldier

To the dozens of subscribers in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service! I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you cash out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from … [Read more...]

September 23, 2013

Global Market Comments September 23, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TAKE A LOOK AT OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM), (OXY), ($WTIC), (USO), (TESTIMONIAL) Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Light Crude Oil ($WTIC) United States Oil (USO) … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Take a Look at Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Faberge Egg

I have kept oil companies in my long term model portfolio for many years now. But there are a lot of belles at the ball, but you can’t dance with all of them. While a student at UCLA in the early seventies, I took a World Politics class, which required me to pick a country, analyze its economy, and make recommendations for its economic development. I chose Algeria, a country … [Read more...]

September 20, 2013

Global Market Comments September 20, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SEPTEMBER 25 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (REPORT FROM THE MATTERHORN SUMMIT) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the September 25 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, September 25 at 12:00 noon EDT. Login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to … [Read more...]