The Yen Carry Trade Blow Up

Asian Maids

When I staggered downstairs at 11:00 PM to check the close for the Tokyo stock market, my eyes just about popped out of my head. Yikes! Down 6.3%! The yen was up another 2% to ¥94 against the US dollar as well!! It looked like the world was in for another round of “RISK OFF” with a turbocharger. Fasten your seatbelts, and pack an extra pair of shorts. So I called an old … [Read more...]

The Service Job in Your Future

Services Chart

Anyone wondering about the long term future of the US economy should take a look at the chart below. It shows the unrelenting growth of services’ share of American GDP growing from 25% to 45% over the last sixty years. Far and away the fastest growth area has been in health care, and with the first Obamacare programs starting in September, that growth is set to accelerate. … [Read more...]

June 13, 2013

Global Market Comments June 13, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 16 BERLIN STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (ANOTHER NAIL IN THE NUCLEAR COFFIN), (SCE-PF), (NLR), (CCJ) (THE CHINA VIEW FROM 30,000 FEET) (FXI), (DBC), (DYY), (DBA), (PHO) Southern California Edison Trus (SCE-PF) Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) iShares FTSE China 25 Index … [Read more...]

July 16 Berlin Strategy Luncheon

Berlin-Brandenburg Gate

Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Berlin, Germany, at 12:00 noon on Tuesday, July 16, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

Another Nail in the Nuclear Coffin

CCJ 6-12.13

Southern California Edison (SCE/PF) has announced that it is permanently closing its controversial nuclear power plant at San Onofre. The move is only the latest in a series of closures implemented by utilities around the country, and could well spell the end of this flagging industry. This is further dismal news for holders of ETF’s in the sector, like the Market Vector … [Read more...]

The China View from 30,000 Feet

DBA 6-12-13

I have long sat beside the table of McKinsey & Co., the best management consulting company in Asia, hoping to catch some crumbs of wisdom. So, I jumped at the chance to have breakfast with Shanghai based Worldwide Managing Director, Dominic Barton, when he passed through San Francisco visiting clients. These are usually sedentary affairs, but Dominic spit out fascinating … [Read more...]

June 12, 2013

Global Market Comments June 12, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 8 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TESLA GETS AGGRESSIVE ON MARKETING),  (TSLA), (GM), (F), (WATCH OUT FOR THE CHIHUAHUA GLUT) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) General Motors Company (GM) Ford Motor Co. (F) … [Read more...]

July 8 London Strategy Luncheon

Big_Ben_8583a

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep … [Read more...]

Tesla Takes Off the Gloves

Tesla

Tesla (TSLA) CEO, Elon Musk, has taken off the gloves and is offering an innovative new hybrid lease that promises to bring in thousands of new buyers of his revolutionary, all electric S-1 sedan. The package eliminates the downside risk that concerned prospective customers about the resale value of their cars down the road. Under the program, Tesla will buy back your car at … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Chihuahua Glut

paris-hilton-chihuahua2

You never know what the third, fourth, or fifth derivative impacts a major economic trend can cause. That is how the collapse of the housing market has created a Chihuahua glut in California, where evicted homeowners are handing over their pets to animal shelters. The diminutive Mexican canine enjoyed a boom in popularity in recent years, thanks to movies like Beverly Hills … [Read more...]

June 11, 2013

Global Market Comments June 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 2 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (MY BIG MISS IN SWITZERLAND), (FXF), (EWL), (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF) iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped Index (EWL) … [Read more...]

July 2 New York Strategy Luncheon Invite

Empire State Building

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

My Big Miss in Switzerland

EWL 6-10-13

I have got a lot right in the markets lately, especially this year, when 90% of my Trade Alerts went well. But as they say in karate school in Japan, you can’t block all the punches. I certainly missed the opportunity of a lifetime to load up on the stocks of a certain country, which I am about to visit. I’ll give you a hint up front: think edelweiss. Yes, you guessed it. … [Read more...]

June 10, 2013

Global Market Comments June 10, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (UPDATED 2013 SUMMER STRATEGY LUNCHEON SCHEDULE), (LEARNING IN THE SCHOOL OF HARD KNOCKS), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (THE NEW DEFLATION DEFINITION), (THE WORLD IN 100 YEARS) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) … [Read more...]

Updated 2013 Strategy Luncheon Schedule

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Updates, which I will be conducting throughout Europe during the summer of 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. … [Read more...]

Learning in the School of Hard Knocks

FXY 6-7-13

I always believe that any loss you don’t learn from is a loss wasted. One reason I know so much is because I have suffered a lot of losses, mostly at my own expense when I was young and stupid, well before the Trade Alert Service started. So what did we learn from our most recent ill-advised attempt to profit from selling short the Japanese yen against the US dollar? Let me … [Read more...]

The New Deflation Definition

Balloon

It seems that all you hear about these days is deflation. That is certainly what the bond market is telling us, with my screen blaring at me a miserable 2.10% yield for the ten year Treasury bond. But there is a new definition for this economic malady that applies to us hapless consumers. In the newest variety, the value of our income falls, while the prices of things we … [Read more...]

What Will the World Look Like in 100 Years?

George Friedman, geopolitical forecaster and founder of the Austin, Texas based private intelligence firm, STRATFOR Global Intelligence (click here for website), delivers a fascinating list of future political, military, and economic scenarios in his new book, The Next 100 years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. Friedman claims the current Islamic assault on the West is … [Read more...]

June 7, 2013

Global Market Comments June 7, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AUGUST 1 MYKONOS, GREECE STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (JUNE 12 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (NEW NUCLEAR DEMOLISHED BY NEW NATURAL GAS), (UNG), (NLR), (CCJ), (DUK), (NRG), (DRU), (MAKE YOUR NEXT KILLING IN AFRICA), (AFK), (GAF) United States Natural Gas (UNG) Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR) Cameco … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the June 12 Global Strategy Webinar

robin

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, June 12 at 12:00 noon EDT. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

August 1 Mykonos, Greece Strategy Luncheon

Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting on the Greek island of Mykonos in the Aegean Sea on Thursday, August 1, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign … [Read more...]

New Nuclear Demolished By New Natural Gas

CCJ 6-6-13

Four years ago, the dreams of a nuclear renaissance seemed close to coming to fruition. President Obama supported it. Congress passed a raft of new subsidies, tax breaks, liability caps, and cost overrun indemnifications, to grease the works. The goal was to bring the private sector back in a non-oil, non-carbon energy source which had seen no new construction in 34 … [Read more...]

Make Your Next Killing in Africa

AFK 6-6-13

Feel like investing in a state sponsor of terrorism? How about a country whose leaders have stolen $400 billion in the last decade and has seen 300 foreign workers kidnapped? Another country lost four wars in the last 40 years. Still interested? How about a country that suffers the world’s highest AIDS rate, regularly endures insurrections where all of the Westerners are … [Read more...]

June 6, 2013

Global Market Comments June 6, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 8 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (WHERE’S THIS MARKET BOTTOM?), (SPX), (DXJ), (FXY), ($NIKK), (THE ONE SAFE PLACE IN REAL ESTATE) S&P 500 Index (SPX) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) Nikkei Index ($NIKK) … [Read more...]

July 8 London Strategy Luncheon

Big_Ben_8583a

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep … [Read more...]

Where’s This Market Bottom?

Girl with Chopsticks

After yesterday’s 217 point swoon, the S&P 500 (SPX) has fallen 4.3% from its late May peak. It looks like the “Sell in May” crowd is having the last laugh after all, of which I was one. Is this a modest 5% correction in a continuing bull market? Or is it the beginning of a Harry Dent style crash to (SPX) 300 (click here for the interview on Hedge Fund Radio)? Let’s go … [Read more...]

The One Safe Place in Real Estate

I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this beleaguered market that might actually make sense. By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and that of the US from 300 million to 400 million, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and the CIA fact Book (check out the population pyramid below). That means enormous demand for the … [Read more...]

June 5, 2013

Global Market Comments June 5, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 2 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (WELCOME TO THE SACK OF ROME), (TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (MUB), (VNQ), (KMP), (BREAKFAST WITH FED GOVERNOR BOB McTEER) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond (LQD) iShares S&P National … [Read more...]

July 2 New York Strategy Luncheon

empire

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

Welcome to the Sack of Rome

Statue

Let’s face it, the carnage in the bond markets in May outdid the sack of Rome. Not only did the Treasury bonds (TLT) get hit. The entire high yield space was slaughtered, including corporates (LQD), junk bonds (JNK), REITS (VNQ), master limited partnerships (KMP), municipal bonds (MUB), and high dividend equities. Anything that looked and smelled like a bond got … [Read more...]

June 4, 2013

Global Market Comments June 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AUGUST 9 ZERMATT STRATEGY SEMINAR), (BREAKFAST WITH PIMCO’S MOHAMED EL-ERIAN), (TAKE A RIDE IN THE NEW SHORT JUNK ETF), (JNK), (SJB), (CORN), (TBT) SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) ProShares Short High Yield (SJB) Teucrium Corn (CORN) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) … [Read more...]

August 9 Zermatt Global Strategy Seminar

matterhorn-Copy2-1

Come join me for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Friday, August 9, 2012. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light snacks. You are welcome … [Read more...]

Breakfast with PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian

US GDP Growh Rate

On the way back from a funeral in Los Angeles last weekend, I thought I would take a walk down Nostalgia Lane and have breakfast at the historic Langham Huntington Hotel, the venue for my 1970 senior prom. I was half way through my eggs benedict in the Terrace Room when, who sits at the next table, but bond giant PIMCO’s brilliant CEO and co-CIO, Mohamed El-Erian. That’s the … [Read more...]

Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF

Car-Junk

When you look at the profusion of new ETF’s being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops. The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders bay for it. The resulting returns for investors are disastrous. But occasionally a blind squirrel finds an acorn, if you fire buckshot long enough, you … [Read more...]

June 3, 2013

Global Market Comments June 3, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HARRY S. DENT, JR. ON HEDGE FUND RADIO), (SPY), (IWM), (UUP), (GLD), (SLV), (USO), (XLE), (TLT) (A RELIGIOUS EXPERIENCE) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) United States Oil (USO) Energy … [Read more...]

Harry S. Dent, Jr. on Hedge Fund Radio

Harry S. Dent, Jr.

Your stock portfolio will get decimated by a stock market crash that could take the Dow average down 60% to 6,000 or lower. There will be no place to hide, as gold, silver, oil, real estate will see declines of similar magnitude. Given the fresh dose of uncertainty besieging the markets these days, I thought I'd touch base with my pal, co-conspiring Eagle Scout, and fellow … [Read more...]

A Religious Experience

John Thomas

A couple times a year, I feel the need to abandon civilization and contemplate the meaning of life, while accomplishing a great physical challenge. For me, this is a mandatory religious experience. That’s why I was up at Lake Tahoe last week, completing a 100 mile hike in eight days, mostly over 8,000 feet, carrying a 60 pound pack. I fast while accomplishing this, eating … [Read more...]

May 31, 2013

Global Market Comments May 31, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (UPDATED 2013 STRATEGY LUNCHEON SCHEDULE), (WHY JIM CHANOS IS WRONG ON CHINA), (FXI), (CYB) (DRINKS WITH ROBERT REICH), (BECOME MY FACEBOOK FRIEND) iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB) … [Read more...]

Updated 2013 Strategy Luncheon Schedule

Europe

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Updates, which I will be conducting throughout Europe during the summer of 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. … [Read more...]

Why Jim Chanos is Wrong on China

China

Hedge fund titan, Jim Chanos, is well known for his extremely bearish views on China. He says that the cracks are spreading on the façade, real estate sales are falling, and that the economic engine is starting to sputter. This will be bad news for the rest of us, as China imports 50%-80% of the world’s commodities. Commodity exporting countries will be especially hard hit, … [Read more...]

Become My Facebook Friend

If you would like to get a free headline service from The Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, then please join my 1,464 friends. Every day we are posting headlines along with summaries of the stories on our Facebook page. As soon as you open your own Facebook page, you will receive our latest headlines as newsfeeds. To “friend me”, please go to my home page at … [Read more...]

May 30, 2013

Global Market Comments May 30, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 8 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE BOTTOM IS IN FOR THE AGS), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA) (THE ONE ECONOMIC INDICATOR YOU CAN RELY ON) (AN EVENING WITH MALCOLM GLADWELL) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat (WEAT) Teucrium Soybean (SOYB) PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) … [Read more...]

July 8 London Strategy Luncheon

Big_Ben_8583a

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep … [Read more...]

The Bottom is in for the Ags

Popcorn

Take a look at the drought monitor below, and you’ll see that it looks exactly like the one we saw a year ago. Yes, that’s the one right before we saw prices double for corn (CORN) and most other agricultural products. The global warming trade may be about to return with a vengeance. If the weather so far this year is any indication, the trading pits in Chicago could break … [Read more...]

The One Economic Indicator You Can Rely On

Girls at beach

There is no end to which I am willing to go to understand the future direction of the world economy. So when I learned that the price of Brazilian bikini waxes was going through the roof, I had to sit up and take note. Last month, the price of the popular beauty treatment soared by 16.6% to 35 Reals, about $22. This is no joke. The Brazilian government includes the removal … [Read more...]

May 29, 2013

Global Market Comments May 29, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 2 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (RECOLLECTIONS OF A MARINE), (THE BLACK SWAN SOLUTION TO OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS)   … [Read more...]

July 2 New York Strategy Luncheon

Empire State Building

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

Recollections of a Marine

The Pacific by Hugh Ambrose

As the son of a Marine who served on Guadalcanal in 1942, I had an unusual childhood. The memories all came flooding back to me as the HBO program, The Pacific, which aired once again over this Memorial Day weekend. Every scene in the ten-hour series I had already heard about around campfires, at veteran’s reunions, or in officers clubs around the world. At five, I learned … [Read more...]

May 28, 2013

Global Market Comments May 28, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 29 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (ANNOUNCING THE RELAUNCH OF HEDGE FUND RADIO), (SKYBRIDGE CAPITAL’S ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI ON HEDGE FUND RADIO) (SPY), (EWJ), (DXJ), (TLT), (FXY),  (YCS), (IDX), (EWM), (EWS), (GLD) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the May 29 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, May 29 at 12:00 noon EST. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

Announcing the Relaunch of Hedge Fund Radio

I often get asked by readers to share the industry contacts that enable me to make such timely and insightful market calls. Now you have the opportunity to do so. Hedge Fund Radio is the online radio program for the true investment professional. There, you can hear me roll out my 40-year accumulation of trading contacts from across the width and breadth of the financial … [Read more...]

SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci on Hedge Fund Radio

Anthony Scarmucci

Markets are overbought now, especially given that the US economy is only growing at a subpar 2% annual rate. But the S&P 500 (SPY) will close higher by yearend. Despite the fact that 30-year Treasury prices (TLT) are near all time highs, there are still huge opportunities in the fixed income space. And both the Japanese yen (FXY) (YCS) and the Tokyo stock market (EWJ) (DXJ) … [Read more...]

May 24, 2013

Global Market Comments May 24, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (UPDATED 2013 STRATEGY LUNCHEON SCHEDULE), (A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN) (UPDATE ON THE MAD DAY TRADER), (JJG), (TBT) iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJG) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) … [Read more...]

Updated 2013 Strategy Luncheon Schedule

Europe

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Updates, which I will be conducting throughout Europe during the summer of 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I'll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. … [Read more...]

Update on The Mad Day Trader

JJG 5-23-13

I am happy to report that we are making great progress with The Mad Day Trader, rapidly evolving the service to best meet the needs of the professional trader. We have already closed huge winners in soybeans (SM), the iPath Dow Jones AIG Grains Total Return Index ETF (JJG), and short Treasury bond (TBT). It is not easy for me to translate "traderese" in plain English, but … [Read more...]

May 23, 2013

Global Market Comments May 23, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 8 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE AMERICAN ONSHORING TREND IS ACCELERATING), (GE), (TSLA), (HEDGE FUNDS: THE NEW DUMB MONEY) General Electric Company (GE) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) … [Read more...]

July 8 London Strategy Luncheon

Big_Ben_8583a

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep … [Read more...]

The American Onshoring Trend is Accelerating

Leonard DiCaprio

Onshoring, the return of US manufacturing from abroad, is rapidly gathering pace. It is increasingly playing a crucial part in the unfolding American industrial renaissance. It could well develop into the most important new trend on the global economic scene during the early 21st century. It is also paving the way for a return of the roaring twenties to our home shores. Of … [Read more...]

Hedge Funds: The New Dumb Money

Carrey & Daniels - Dumb & Dumber

Much of the recent buying of stocks has been generated by hedge funds panicking to cover shorts. Convinced of the imminent collapse of Europe, the impotence of governments to do anything about it, and slow economic growth at home, many managers were running a maximum short for the umpteenth time, and were forced to cover at a loss. Meet the new dumb money: hedge funds. When … [Read more...]

July 25 Portofino, Italy Strategy Luncheon

Portofino, Italy

Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting near Portofino, Italy on the Italian Riviera, on Thursday, July 25, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, … [Read more...]

Five Stocks to Buy for the Second Half

Market Pit

Take a look at the chart below for the S&P 500, and it is clear that we are at the top, of a top, of a top. How much new stock do you want to buy here? Not much. Virtually every technical trading service I follow, including my own, is now flashing distressed warning signals. Maybe we really were supposed to “Sell in May and go away.” All RSI’s are through the roof. We … [Read more...]

May 21, 2013

Global Market Comments May 21, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 2 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE END OF THE COMMODITY SUPER CYCLE) (GLD), (SLV), (CU), (BHP), (USO), (PALL), (PPLT), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (FXA) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU) BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) United States Oil … [Read more...]

July 2 New York Strategy Luncheon

Empire State Building

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

End of the Commodity Super Cycle

Gold Coins

Traders have been watching in complete awe the rapid decent of the price of gold, which is emerging as the most despised asset class of 2013. But it is becoming increasingly apparent that the collapse of prices for the barbarous relic is part of a much larger, longer-term macro trend. It isn’t just the yellow metal that is hurting. So are the rest of the precious and semi … [Read more...]

May 20, 2013

Global Market Comments May 20, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (INTRODUCING THE MAD DAY TRADER), (A SPECIAL NOTE TO TRADE ALERT FOLLOWERS) (REVISITING THE FIRST SILVER BUBBLE), (SLV) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) … [Read more...]

Introducing the Mad Day Trader

I am pleased to announce the introduction of my first major upgrade, The Mad Day Trader. While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader will exploit money-making opportunities over a ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to … [Read more...]

A Special Note to Trade Alert Followers

Special Note

As of today, we will be sending out two types of Trader Alerts, medium term ones from the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, and short term ones from the new Mad Day Trader service. Please be careful not to confuse the two. We have done what we can to distinguish the two, using different logos, colors, fonts, and subject. However, in the heat of battle I understand that it is all too … [Read more...]

Revisiting the First Silver Bubble

Silver Dollar

With smoke still rising from the ruins of the recent silver crash, I thought I’d touch base with a wizened and grizzled old veteran who still remembers the last time a bubble popped for the white metal. That would be Mike Robertson, who runs Robertson Wealth Management, one of the largest and most successful registered investment advisors in the country. Mike is the last … [Read more...]

May 17, 2013

Global Market Comments May 17, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HANGING OUT WITH CONGRESSMAN BARNEY FRANK), (THE MOST FUNCTIONAL WORD IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE), (AN EVENING WITH NOBEL PRIZE WINNER MICHAEL SPENCE) (EEM),(EWZ), (EWY), (EWT), (EWS), (EWH),(TF), (IDX), (EWM), (FXI), (EWJ) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Index … [Read more...]

An Evening With Congressman Barney Frank

John Thomas and Barney Frank

One of the highlights of last week’s SkyBridge Alternatives Conference was the blowout party on Wednesday night (click here for the blow by blow description). Seeking refuge from a band that was blasting my ears out, and fleeing the nubile young bodies that kept bumping up against me and spilling my margaritas, I sought out a safe haven. There, cloistered in the quietest, … [Read more...]

The Most Functional Word in the English Language

Girl-I don't know!

Passed on by a friend with my apologies: Well, it's shit... That's right, shit! Shit may just be the most functional word in the English language. You can smoke shit, buy shit, sell shit, lose shit, find shit, forget shit, and tell others to eat shit. Some people know their shit, while others can't tell the difference between shit and Shinola. There are lucky … [Read more...]

May 16, 2013

Global Market Comments May 16, 2013 Fiat Lux SPECIAL TESLA EDITION Featured Trade: (ONE THE TESLA MELT UP), (TSLA), (F), (FIATY), (PEUGY), (SCTY), (BBRY), (HLF), (NFLX), (FSLR) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Ford Motor Co. (F) Fiat S.p.A. (FIATY) Peugeot S.A. (PEUGY) SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) Research In Motion Limited (BBRY) Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) Netflix, Inc. … [Read more...]

On the Tesla Melt Up

JT with Tesla

This was the short squeeze that was begging to happen. Five guys owned 50% of the company, including the visionary founder, Elon Musk. Of the remaining float, 45% had been borrowed and sold short by hedge funds. All that was needed to ignite a rally was for someone to say “Boo.” That is exactly what Ben Bernanke has done with his non stop quantitative easing. A poorly … [Read more...]

May 15, 2013

Global Market Comments May 15, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 19 FRANKFURT, GERMANY STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TESTIMONIAL), (MY FAVORITE SECRET ECONOMIC INDICATOR), (RUNNING THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO BREAKERS) … [Read more...]

July 19 Frankfurt, Germany Strategy Luncheon

Frankfurt-8

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Frankfurt, Germany on Friday, July 19, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and … [Read more...]

Running the San Francisco Bay to Breakers

Medal-Bay to Breakers SF

I suffer earthquakes, forest fires, floods, dubious neighbors, high taxes, corrupt politicians, and a bankrupt state government to live in California. It is all worth it just to run the Bay to Breakers every year, a five mile run from the San Francisco Bay to the Pacific Ocean, which has evolved into the world’s most bizarre sporting event. The word from race organizers this … [Read more...]

My Favorite Secret Economic Indicator

U-Haul Ad

It was with an enormous sense of pride and relief that I watched the last of my kids graduate from the University of California at Berkeley. Clutching his hard fought degree in political economics in hand, Robert posed for photos among friends, with thousands of beaming parents looking on. His mother died ten years ago, and raising three kids alone, getting them through top … [Read more...]

Report on the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference

SALT Badge

I am writing to you from the poolside cabana number B-2 at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. It is an unseasonably cool 70 degrees in the shade and the air is bone- dry, so I’m on my third banana daiquiri for the day. The days when I risked getting my hands broken with a hammer for card counting at blackjack have long since passed, so I am able to relax. That’s how I had to work … [Read more...]

Report From Las Vegas

Slot Machines

As with all of my visits to Sin City, I made a beeline to my inside guy — a blackjack dealer at Caesar’s Palace. It’s been a slow summer and an even slower fall. With global warming delivering the hottest summer in history, the last place tourists wanted to visit was the desert. Midwesterners have been particularly hard hit, as the heat has caused crop failures on a Biblical … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the May 15 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, May 15 at 12:00 noon EDT. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

Japan is Just Getting Started

Japanese Girl

Constantly chained to my MacBook Pro at home writing this letter, it is not often that I am in the room when a major market-moving event occurs. That is what happened at the SkyBridge Alternatives Asset Conference (SALT) in Las Vegas on Thursday (click here for the link at http://www.saltconference.com/). I was listening to one of the legendary titans of the hedge fund … [Read more...]

May 10, 2013

Global Market Comments May 10, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 2030) (BREAKFAST WITH FED GOVERNOR BOB MCTEER), (TAKE A RIDE IN THE NEW SHORT JUNK ETF), (SJB), (JNK), (CORN) ProShares Short High Yield (SJB) SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) Teucrium Corn (CORN) … [Read more...]

The Real Estate Market in 2030

House on fire

Long time readers of this letter know too well that I have been hugely negative on the sector since late 2005, when I unloaded all of my holdings (click here for ‘The Hard Truth About Residential Real Estate’).  However, I believe that ‘forever’ may be on the extreme side. Personally, I believe there will be great opportunities in real estate starting in 2030. Let’s back up … [Read more...]

Breakfast With Fed Governor Bob McTeer

McTeerRobert[1]

No one can explain the most complex economic and monetary issues in a simpler, more homespun fashion than former governor of the Federal Reserve, Bob McTeer. He is known for carrying around two yardsticks, one slightly longer than the other, to demonstrate to your average guy the monthly changes in employment. Bob argues that the Fed is getting a bad rap today. Ben … [Read more...]

Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF

Car-Junk

When you look at the profusion of new ETF’s being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops. The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders bay for it. The resulting returns for investors are disastrous. But occasionally a blind squirrel finds an acorn, and if you fire buckshot long enough, … [Read more...]

May 9, 2013

Global Market Comments May 9, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RECEPTION THAT THE STARS FELL UPON), (NLR), (CCJ), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (EUROPEAN STYLE HOMELAND SECURITY) Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat (WEAT) Teucrium Soybean (SOYB) PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) … [Read more...]

The Reception That the Stars Fell Upon

Atomic Explosion

My friend was having a hard time finding someone to attend a reception who was knowledgeable about financial markets, White House intrigue, international politics, and nuclear weapons. I asked who was coming. She said Reagan’s Treasury Secretary, George Shultz, Clinton’s Defense Secretary, William Perry, and Senate Armed Services Chairman, Sam Nunn. I said I’d be there … [Read more...]

European Style Homeland Security

CleeseJohn2

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent events in Libya, and have therefore raised their security level from "Miffed" to "Peeved." Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A Bit Cross." The English have not been "A Bit Cross" since the blitz in 1940, when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized from … [Read more...]

July 16 Berlin Strategy Luncheon

Berlin-Brandenburg Gate

Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Berlin, Germany, at 12:00 noon on Tuesday, July 16, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

Why Ben Bernanke Hates Me

220px-Ben_Bernanke_official_portrait

I don’t just think he hates me. He truly despises me. In fact, he does everything he can to put me out of business. Take last Wednesday, for example, when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee gave me and my views a complete thrashing. Additional quantitative easing was the last thing in the world I was expecting because it was not justified by the current fundamentals. … [Read more...]

May 7, 2013

Global Market Comments May 7, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (I’M OFF TO THE SALT CONFERENCE), (JULY 12 AMSTERDAM STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BE CAREFUL! YOUR PC IS WATCHING), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

I’m Off to the SALT Conference

SALT Conference

I will spend the rest of the week attending the 5th annual SALT conference at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. This is the preeminent get together of the major players in the hedge fund industry. There, I will hook up with readers, consulting clients, old pals, and former staff, many of whom now run their own multi billion dollar hedge funds. I could write a letter entirely … [Read more...]

July 12 Amsterdam Strategy Luncheon

Amsterdam

Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, on Friday, July 12, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

Be Careful! Your PC is Watching

computer

Hey! You there, staring at this monitor. This is your PC talking to you. No, not you over there standing in the background. I’m talking to the guy sitting in front of me poking at my keys. Ouch! That one hurt! So you thought no one was watching, did you? Let me straighten you out. About a month ago you clicked on a certain website, and I installed myself as a cookie on your … [Read more...]

May 6, 2013

Global Market Comments May 6, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BEN’S NEW LEG FOR THE BULL MARKET), (SPY), (IWM), (AAPL), (GLD), (SLV), (CU), (TLT), (YCS), (FXY) (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) Apple Inc. (AAPL) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) First … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]