Turkey is on the Menu

Istanbul

I am building lists of emerging market ETF’s to snap up during any summer sell off, and Turkey popped up on the menu. The country is only one of two Islamic countries that I consider investment grade, (Indonesia is the other one). The 82 million people of Turkey rank 15th in the world population, and 16th with a GDP of $960 billion GDP. Some 25% of the population is under the … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

An Evening With “Government Motors”

GM-CEO-Dan-Akerson-1

Long-term readers of this letter are well aware of my antipathy towards General Motors (GM). For decades, the company turned a blind ear to customer complaints about shoddy, uncompetitive products, arcane management practices, entitled dealers, and a totally inward looking view of the world that was rapidly globalizing. It was like watching a close friend kill himself through … [Read more...]

April 9, 2013

Global Market Comments April 9, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TRADER ALERT SERVICE POSTS BIGGEST ONE DAY GAIN), (FXY), (YCS), (BAC), (AAPL), (SPY), (TBT), (WHAT ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION?), (AMERICA’S RAPIDLY CHANGING MIX) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) Bank of America Corporation … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Posts Biggest One Day Gain

fat+lady+sings

Just a quick note to tell you that yesterday, the Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader posted its biggest one-day gain ever. From the Friday to the Monday close my trade-mentoring program picked up some 447 basis points. The three day pickup for the service is an eye popping 12.23%. That takes readers’ year to date profit to a mind blowing 39.52%. David Tepper, eat … [Read more...]

What About Asset Allocation?

Regis Philbin

Asset allocation is the one question that I get every day, which I absolutely cannot answer. The reason is simple: no two investors are alike. The answer varies whether you are young or old, have $1,000 in the bank or $1 billion, are a sophisticated investor or an average Joe, in the top or the bottom tax bracket, and so on. This is something you should ask your financial … [Read more...]

America’s Rapidly Changing Mix

Kids

Since I am in the long-term forecasting business, it was with some fascination that I caught the Associated Press report that minority children born last year exceeded Caucasian children for the first time. Whites lost their majority in San Francisco many years ago, and will do so in California as a whole in the near future. The report said that the US will have a ‘minority’ … [Read more...]

April 8, 2013

Global Market Comments April 8, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TRADE ALERT SERVICE CAPTURES 35% GAIN IN 2013), (SPX), (VIX), (IWM), (BAC), (UAL), (FXE), (YCS), (GLD), (USO), (FCX), (TLT) (SLV), (AIG), (FXB), (CU) (DECODING THE GREEBACK), (THE FUSION IN YOUR FUTURE) S&P 500 Large Cap Index (SPX) VOLATILITYS&P500 … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Captures 35% Profit on BOJ Move

John thomas

The stunning and unprecedented move by the Bank of Japan last week boosted the Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader to a new all time high. It was an incredible week, with me punching out 14 Trade Alerts to readers, burning up the fiber optic cable of the global broadband network. And I did all of this, sitting in front of the fire at my Lake Tahoe beachfront … [Read more...]

Decoding the Greenback

US Dollar

If you want to impress your friends with your vast knowledge of financial matters, then here are the Latin translations of the script on the backside of a US dollar bill. “ANNUIT COEPTIS” means “God has favored our undertaking.” “NOVUS ORDO SECLORUM” translates into “A new order has begun.” The Roman numerals at the base of the pyramid are “1776.” The better known “E … [Read more...]

The Fusion in Your Future

Planetarium

Expect to hear a lot about ignition in the next year. No, I don’t mean the rebuilt ignition for the beat up ’68 Cadillac El Dorado up on blocks in your front yard. I’m referring to the inauguration of the National Ignition Facility next door to me at Lawrence Livermore National Labs in Livermore, California. Mention California to most people, and images of love beads, tie … [Read more...]

April 5, 2013

Global Market Comments April 5, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NEW BOJ GOVERNOR CRUSHES THE YEN), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS), (THERE ARE NO GURUS), (WATCH OUT FOR THE MILLENNIAL VOTER) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) … [Read more...]

New BOJ Governor Crushes the Yen

BOJ Govenor

Wow! What a day! In perhaps the most dramatic policy move by any central bank, anywhere in history, the Bank of Japan pulled out all the stops to stimulate its moribund, demographically challenged economy. Japan is now lapping its competitors in Europe and the US in the international race to the bottom. The markets certainly got the memo. Japan’s beleaguered currency … [Read more...]

Sign Up Now for Text Messaging of Trade Alerts

Testimonial

Paid subscribers are now able to receive instantaneous text messages of my proprietary Trade Alerts. This eliminates frustrating delays caused by traffic surges on the Internet itself, and by your local server. To activate your free service, please log in to your account at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, look under your name on the right, and click on the blue hyperlink that … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Millennial Voter

College Kids

I have been banging the table for years now about the importance of demographic trends for the economy, the financial markets, and the housing market. Well, politics is no different. According to recent surveys, Millennials, who are now aged 21-32 (I have three of them) are suspicious of government, have a strong anti-business bias, are opposed to new regulation, are highly … [Read more...]

April 4, 2013

Global Market Comments April 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 8 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (ANOTHER DINNER WITH ROBERT REICH), (TESTIMONIAL), (CONNECTING UP AMERICA) … [Read more...]

July 8 London Strategy Luncheon

Big_Ben_8583a

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2012. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep … [Read more...]

Another Dinner With Robert Reich

Robert Reich

I never tire of listening to economics guru, Robert Reich, speak about the economy. He was former Labor Secretary under Bill Clinton, and ran against Mitt Romney for governor of Massachusetts (he lost). He has published 13 books. Oh, and he dated our recent Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham, when they were in law school together at Yale. I got to know Bob well when I took … [Read more...]

Connecting Up America

Solar Panels

Until now, the country’s power grid has been divided into three unconnected, noncompetitive kingdoms (in the spirit of Game of Thrones), making transnational transmission impossible, leading to huge regional mispricing. While California and New York suffered from periodic brown outs and sky high prices, electricity was given away virtually for free in Texas. A group of power … [Read more...]

April 3, 2013

Global Market Comments April 3, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (PULLING THE RIPCORD ON UNITED), (UAL), (EASTER AT INCLINE VILLAGE) United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL) … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Pulling the Ripcord on United

3.21.2013 B

Delta announces that revenues grew by only 2% in the last quarter, so of course, they trash United Continental Group (UAL), taking it down 11% from the recent high.  As a former pilot myself, I always allow an extra safety margin separating me from a catastrophic event. This time it came in handy, my deep out-of-the-money call spread limiting my losses to a handful of basis … [Read more...]

Easter at Incline Village

Incline Village-Tahoe

It has definitely been a tough year for ski bums, massage therapists, and black jack dealers at Incline Village, Nevada. After getting a prodigious eight feet of snow over one weekend at Christmas, there has been nary a flake since then. Hats off to the Diamond Peak ski resort for trucking down enough snow from the higher elevations to keep the bunny slope running. However, … [Read more...]

April 2, 2013

Global Market Comments April 2, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE US DOMINANCE IN HIGHER EDUCATION), (AN EVENING WITH JAMES BAKER III), (THE CORN CRASH CONTINUES), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat (WEAT) Teucrium Soybean (SOYB) PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

The Huge US Dominance in Higher Education

Graduation

I spent the weekend attending a graduation in Washington State, a stone’s throw from where the 2010 Winter Olympics were held. While sitting through the tedious reading of 550 names, and listening to the wailing bagpipes, I did several calculations on the back of the commencement program. I came to some startling conclusions. Higher education has grown into a gigantic … [Read more...]

An Evening With James Baker III

James Baker

“We have 3,500 nuclear weapons left over from the cold war we don’t need, they take 20 seconds to re-aim, we’re not afraid to use them. And by the way, they’re already aimed at you.” That is the approach James Baker III thinks America should take with Iran, Ronald Reagan’s Chief of Staff and Secretary of the Treasury and George H.W. Bush’s Secretary of State. At the same … [Read more...]

The Corn Crash Continues

US Drought Monitor

Pit traders of the ags are bruised, battered, and broken, in the wake of Thursday’s US Department of Agriculture crop report showing that there is a whole lot more food out there than anyone imagined possible. Corn was the real shocker. It has long been a nostrum in the ag markets that high prices cure high prices, and that is exactly what is happening now. In the wake of … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

Get Ready for the Next Golden Age

'57 T-Bird

I believe that the global economy is setting up for a new golden age reminiscent of the one the United States enjoyed during the 1950’s, and which I still remember fondly. This is not some pie in the sky prediction. It simply assumes a continuation of existing trends in demographics, technology, politics, and economics. The implications for your investment portfolio will be … [Read more...]

March 28, 2013

Global Market Comments March 28, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 3 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (REAL ESTATE BIDDING WARS GO NATIONAL), (LEN), (KBH), (PHM) Lennar Corp. (LEN) KB Home (KBH) PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the April 3 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, April 3 at 12:00 noon EDT. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Real Estate Bidding Wars Go National

House Keys

Two years ago, there was an open house listed in the San Francisco Chronicle in my neighborhood for $1.8 million. It offered a cavernous 6,000 square feet, five bedrooms, a generous den I could use as a home office, a gourmet kitchen, and a spectacular view of the entire bay area. It was a slow Sunday, so I went to check it out. The home offered every imaginable upgrade, … [Read more...]

March 27, 2013

Global Market Comments March 27, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (WHY WARREN BUFFETT HATES GOLD),  (GLD), (GDX), (ABX), (US HEADED TOWARDS ENERGY INDEPENDENCE), (USO), (UNG), (XOM), (OXY), (KOL), (A TOUCHDOWN FOR USC) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) United States … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Why Warren Buffet Hates Gold

Gold Coin

The 'Oracle of Omaha' expounded at length today on why he despises the barbarous relic. The sage doesn't really care about the yellow metal, whatever the price. He sees it primarily as a bet on fear. If investors are more afraid in a year than they are today, then you make money. If they aren't, then you lose money. If you took all the gold in the world, it would form a cube … [Read more...]

US Headed Towards Energy Independence

Man covered in Oil

My inbox was clogged with responses to my recent prediction of US energy independence. This will be the most important change to the global economy for the next 20 years. So I shall go into more depth. The energy research house, Raymond James, put out an estimate that domestic American oil production (USO) would rise from 5.6 million barrels a day to 9.1 million by 2015. … [Read more...]

A Touchdown for USC

David and Dana Dornsife

One of my many alma maters, the University of Southern California, announced that they had received their largest private donation in history. As a third generation alumni of this fanatical football factory (I went to school with Mark Harmon, Lynn Swan, and, oops, OJ Simpson), I still receive their alumni newsletter, where I learned the good news. David and Dana Dornsife … [Read more...]

March 26, 2013

Global Market Comments March 26, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (HERE COMES THE ROLLING TOP), (VIX), (BAC), (UAL), (SPX), (IWM), (A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE US) VOLATILITY S&P 500 (VIX) Bank of America Corporation (BAC) United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL) S&P 500 Large Cap Index (SPX) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

Here Comes the Rolling Top

Gorilla

The S&P 500 is now at 1,564, and most strategist forecasts for the end of 2013 hover around 1,550-1,600, plus or minus some spare change. So the next nine months are going to be incredibly boring. Or they won’t. Even in a bull market, one expects to see pullbacks of at least one third of the recent gain. Apply that logic towards the 224 points the (SPX) has tacked on … [Read more...]

A Different View of the US

US GDP

My mother lives in Pakistan, my daughter in Greece, and I have a ski chalet in Peru. What's more, I have strategy luncheons planned for Australia, Thailand, and Turkey. At least these would be my conclusions after looking at a map of the United States prepared by my esteemed former employer, The Economist magazine, renaming each state with its international equivalent in … [Read more...]

Airline Stocks Are Cleared for Take Off

3.21.2013 B

When I was a young, clueless investment banker at Morgan Stanley 30 years ago, the head of equity sales took me aside to give me some fatherly advice. Never touch the airlines. The profitability of this industry was totally dependent on fuel costs, interest rates, and the state of the economy, and management hadn't the slightest idea of what any of these were going to do. If … [Read more...]

March 22, 2013

Global Market Comments March 22, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (BUY EVERY BLACK SWAN), (SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (AAPL), (UAL) (REVISITING CHENIERE ENERGY), (LNG), (UNG), (USO), (DVN), (CHK) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) Apple Inc. (AAPL) United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) United States … [Read more...]

Buy Every Black Swan

Ben Bernanke

At least that’s what Ben Bernanke thinks. He said as much in his press conference yesterday in the wake of the latest Fed statement. He might as well have waved a red Flag at a bull. The central bank took the opportunity to downgrade its US growth forecasts going forward as a result of sequestration imposed government spending cuts. What is impressive is how minimal the … [Read more...]

Revisiting Cheniere Energy (LNG)

Homes - rubble

Occasionally, I so totally knock the ball out of the park that I qualify for a place in the stock picker’s Hall of Fame. That was the case when I put out a recommendation to buy LNG exporter, Cheniere Energy (LNG), a year ago (click here  for Take a Look at Cheniere Energy (LNG). Since then, the stock has soared an eye popping 85%. The great thing here is that I think the … [Read more...]

March 21, 2013

Global Market Comments March 21, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TRADE ALERT SERVICE SEIZES 31.8% GAIN IN 2013), (SPY), (FXY), (IWM, (BAC), (AIG), (FCX), (FXE), (FXB), (GLD), (USO), (THE BULL CASE FOR BANK OF AMERICA), (BAC), (WHEN STERILIZATION IS NOT A FORM OF BIRTH CONTROL), (TLT), (PCY), (MUB), (JNK), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) CurrencyShares Japanese … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Seizes 31.8% Profit in 2013

SPX

The Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a 31.8% profit year to date, taking it to another new all time high. The 27-month total return has punched through to an awesome 86.9%, compared to a miserable 18.5% return for the Dow average during the same period. That raises the average annualized return for the service to 36.5%, elevating it to the pinnacle of … [Read more...]

The Bull Case for Bank of America

BAC Poster

I’ll give you the quick and dirty argument behind buying Bank of America. For the past four years, the main argument for avoiding this stock like the plague was the hidden book of bad home loans it was hiding on its back bookshelf, thought to be in the tens of billions of dollars. This is why the shares spent most of the last half decade trading at a pitiful 50% of its book … [Read more...]

When Sterilization is Not a Form of Birth Control

Pills

I received a flurry of inquires the other day when Ben Bernanke mentioned the word “sterilization” in his recent congressional testimony. And he wasn’t giving advice to the country’s wayward teenaged girls, either. Sterilization refers to a specific style of monetary policy. Sterilized policies seek to manipulate the money markets without changing the overall money supply. … [Read more...]

March 20, 2013

Global Market Comments March 20, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RECEPTIONS THE STARS FELL UPON), (NLR), (CCJ), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (BECOME MY FACEBOOK FRIEND), (OIL ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE), (USO), (DIG), (DUG) Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat (WEAT) Teucrium Soybean … [Read more...]

The Reception the Stars Fell Upon

Atomic Explosion

My friend was having a hard time finding someone to attend a reception who was knowledgeable about financial markets, White House intrigue, international politics, and nuclear weapons. I asked who was coming. She said Reagan’s Treasury Secretary George Shultz, Clinton’s Defense Secretary William Perry, and former Senate Armed Services Chairman Sam Nunn. I said I’d be there … [Read more...]

Become My Facebook Friend

If you would like to get a free headline service from The Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, then please join my 1,448 friends. Every day we are posting headlines along with summaries of the stories on our Facebook page. As soon as you open your own Facebook page, you will receive our latest headlines as newsfeeds. To “friend me”, please go to my home page at … [Read more...]

Oil Isn’t What It Used to Be

Horse Drawn Car

Virtually every analyst has been puzzled by the seeming immunity of stock markets to soaring oil prices (USO), (DIG), (DUG) this year. In fact, stocks and crude have been tracking almost one to one on the upside. The charts below a friend at JP Morgan sent me go a long way towards explaining this apparent dichotomy. The first shows the number of barrels of oil needed to … [Read more...]

March 19, 2013

Global Market Comments March 19, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (BUY STOCKS ON THE CYPRUS DIP), (SPX), (SPY), (INVESTORS WILL WIN THE ETF PRICE WAR), (BIDDING FOR THE STARTS), (THE DEATH OF THE MUTUAL FUND) S&P 500 Large Cap Index (SPX) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) … [Read more...]

Buy Stocks on the Cyprus Dip

Aircraft Carriers

I’ll never forget the last time I was in Cyprus. I landed my twin Cessna 340 and asked for a fill up, hoping to make it back to Rome in one hop. An hour later, a truck dumped three 45-gallon drums of 100LL avgas on the tarmac with a hand pump, and asked to be paid in US dollars, cash. When I asked how to get the fuel into the plane, the driver responded with a rotating … [Read more...]

Investors Will Win the ETF Price War

Hannibal Lecter

Many hedge fund traders are unhappy about the current near monopoly enjoyed by the top three ETF issuers, Black Rock, State Street, and Vanguard, which control 80% of the market. At last count more than 1,300 ETF’s were capitalized at more than $1.4 trillion. The result has been grasping management fees, exorbitant expense ratios, and poor structural designs, which create … [Read more...]

Bidding for the Stars

Fishing Nets

A few years ago, I went to a charity fund raiser at San Francisco’s priciest jewelry store, Shreve & Co., where the well-heeled men bid for dates with the local high society beauties, dripping in diamonds and Channel No. 5. Well fueled with champagne, I jumped into a spirited bidding war over one of the Bay Area’s premier hotties, who shall remain nameless. Suffice to say, … [Read more...]

The Death of the Mutual Fund

Downsizing poster

ETF’s are much more attractive than mutual fund competitors, with their notoriously bloated expenses and spendthrift marketing costs. You can’t miss those glitzy, overproduced, big budget ads on TV for a multitude of mutual fund families. You know, the ones with the senior couple holding hands walking down the beach into the sunset, the raging bulls, etc.? You are the sucker … [Read more...]

March 18, 2013

Global Market Comments March 18, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MARCH 20 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (HAS APPLE BOTTOMED?), (AAPL), (TESTIMONIAL), (SOVEREIGN DEBT WAS A GREAT PLACE TO HIDE),  (PCY), (LQD) Apple Inc. (AAPL) PowerShares Emerging Mkts Sovereign Debt (PCY) iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond (LQD) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the March 20 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, March 20 at 12:00 noon EST. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

Has Apple Hit Bottom?

apple_logo_rainbow_6_color

No one has suffered more than I from my slavish devotion to Apple’s products, its performance, and, oops…. it’s stock. A long position in Steve Jobs’ creation remains my only losing position of 2013 (remember the January $525-$575 call spread?). Without the hit I took on that, my Trade Alert Service would be up 33.3% so far this year, instead of only 31%. By comparison, the … [Read more...]

Sovereign Debt Was a Great Place to Hide

Marilyn Monroe

I am constantly asked where to find safe places to park cash by investors understandably unhappy with the risk/reward currently offered by the markets. Any reach for yield now carries substantial principal risk, the kind we saw, oh say, in the summer of 2007. I have had great luck steering people into the Invesco PowerShares Emerging Market Sovereign Debt ETF (PCY) for the … [Read more...]

March 15, 2013

Global Market Comments March 15, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TAKING PROFITS ON STOCKS), (SPY), (TAKING A BITE OUT OF STEALTH INFLATION), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on Stocks

Man - Toothless

With the (SPY) approaching an all time high, there are just a few pennies to go, I am going to take the money and run on my position in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) April, 2013 $145-$150 deep in-the-money bull call spread. At $4.97, there is only 3 cents left in potential profit, and I would have to run the position for another month to get it. We have already captured 93% of the … [Read more...]

Taking a Bite Out of Stealth Inflation

Girlscout Cookies

When I visited the local Safeway over the weekend, I was snared by some uniformed pre-teens, backed by beaming mothers behind a card table selling Girl Scout cookies. I was a pushover. I walked away with a bag of Thin Mints, Lemon Chalet Creams, Do-Si-Dos, and Tagalongs. I have to confess a lifetime addiction to Girl Scout cookies. During the early eighties, one of the … [Read more...]

March 14, 2013

Global Market Comments March 14, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (2013 STRATEGY LUNCHEON SCHEDULE), (THE ELTON JOHN MARKET), (SPY), (RAMPANT WAGE INFLATION STRIKES CHINA), (FXI), (CYB) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB) … [Read more...]

2013 Strategy Luncheon Schedule

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Luncheons, which I will be conducting throughout the US and Europe over the next five months. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and … [Read more...]

The Elton John Market

Elton John

I remember 1997 like it was yesterday. Bill Clinton was president, the US government was running a balanced budget, and the Dotcom IPO bubble parties in Silicon Valley were happening almost every day. The Florida Marlins beat the Cleveland Indians in a seven game World Series, where the last game went to a heart stopping 11 innings. Elton John scored the top hit of the year … [Read more...]

Rampant Wage Inflation Strikes China

Chinese Men

I rely on hundreds of 'moles' around the world whose job it is to watch a single, but important indicator for the world economy. One of them checks for me the want ads in the manufacturing mega city of Shenzhen, China, and what he told me last week was alarming. Wage demands by Chinese workers have been skyrocketing this year. The biggest increases have been at the low end … [Read more...]

March 13, 2013

Global Market Comments March 13, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BLACK SWANS ARE CIRCLING), (SPX), (A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON) S&P 500 Large Cap Index (SPX) … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Black Swans Are Circling

The Birds, Crows

Basking in the glow of my 31% gain so far this year, I have to start wondering what could go wrong. Call me a pessimist, a paranoid, and worrywart, but whenever things got this good in the past, they were about to turn very bad. It is not my intention to ruin your day. But I may well do that if you read the rest of this piece. Traders are piling on new longs with reckless … [Read more...]

A Cow Based Economics Lesson

Cow

SOCIALISM You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor. COMMUNISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk. FASCISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk. NAZISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you. BUREAUCRATISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then … [Read more...]

March 12, 2013

Global Market Comments March 12, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TRADE ALERT SERVICE ROCKETS TO 30% GAIN IN 2013), (SPY), (IWM), (F), (AIG), (FCX), (FXY), (YCS),  (FXB), (FXE), (EUO), (VIX) (LOAD THE BOAT WITH THE CHINESE YUAN), (CYB), (HOW TO AVOID THE PONZI SCHEME TRAP), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) Ford Motor Co. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Rockets 30.6% in 2013

FXY 3-11-13

The Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a 30.64% profit year to date, taking it to another new all time high. The 27-month total return has punched through to an awesome 86%, compared to a miserable 10% return for the Dow average during the same period. That raises the average annualized return for the service to 38%, elevating it to the pinnacle of … [Read more...]

Load the Boat With the Chinese Yuan

Yuan

Any doubts that the Chinese Yuan is a huge screaming buy should have been dispelled when news came out that China had displaced Germany as the world’s largest exporter. The Middle Kingdom shipped $1.9 trillion in goods in 2012, compared to only $1.4 trillion for Deutschland. The US has not held the top spot since 2003. China’s surging exports of electrical machinery, power … [Read more...]

How to Avoid the Ponzi Scheme Trap

Bernie Madoff

I spent a sad and depressing, but highly instructional evening with Dr. Stephen Greenspan, who had lost most of his personal fortune with Bernie Madoff. The University of Connecticut psychology professor had poured the bulk of his savings into Sandra Mansky's Tremont feeder fund; receiving convincing trade confirms and rock solid custody statements from the Bank of New … [Read more...]

March 11, 2013

Global Market Comments March 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY THE STOCK MARKET IS STILL GOING UP), (SPX), (SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (OEX), (RSP), (KKR) (APL) (LINE) (RIG) (AXP), (BMY) (MURRAY SAYLE: THE PASSING OF A GIANT IN JOURNALISM) S&P 500 Large Cap Index (SPX) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) S&P100INDEX … [Read more...]

Why the Stock Market is Still Going Up

Party

I have had an extremely hot hand this year, pushing the 2013 performance of my Trade Alert Service above a stellar 30%. So I am going out on a limb here and predict that the S&P 500 is about to grind up to a new all time high. Since 2009, Federal Reserve governor, Ben Bernanke, has clearly made our central bank’s top priority jobs and growth, at the eventual expense of a … [Read more...]

Who Says Hedge Funds Aren’t Adding Value?

Topiary

According to my old friend, Rick Sopher, chairman of LCH Investments in London, the top ten hedge funds have earned $153 billion for their investors since inception. Rick, who runs his business from an elegant flat on posh Eaton Square, compiled the list after a comprehensive survey of the still operating 7,000 hedge funds worldwide. It is dominated by marquee names like … [Read more...]

China’s Long and Winding Road

Chinese Woman

I spent the evening speaking to Gao Jie, a Beijing civil judge who left the bench to join China's growing environmental movement when her kids came home from school one day coughing and wheezing. You only have to inhale in the capitol city these days to understand that they have a huge problem there. One of the dirty little secrets of international trade for the last three … [Read more...]

The Great Ethanol Boondoggle

Ethanol Formula

One of my biggest disappointments with the Obama administration so far is his continued support of the ethanol boondoggle. The program was ramped up by the Bush administration to achieve energy independence by subsidizing the production of alcohol from domestically grown corn. Add clean burning moonshine (yes, it's the same alcohol - C2H5OH), whose combustion products are … [Read more...]

March 7, 2013

Global Market Comments March 7, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (HERE COMES THE NEXT PEACE DIVIDEND), (AAPL), (USO), (SPX), (UUP), (TLT), (GLD), (SLV), (CU), (CORN), (SOYB) Apple Inc. (AAPL) United States Oil (USO) S&P 500 Index (SPX) PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) SPDR … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Here Comes the Next Peace Dividend

Bashar al-Assad

When communications between intelligence agencies suddenly spike, as has recently been the case, I sit up and take note. Hey, you don’t think I talk to all of those generals because I like their snappy uniforms, do you? The word is that the despotic, authoritarian regime in Syria is on the verge of collapse, and is unlikely to survive more than a few more months. The body … [Read more...]

March 6, 2013

Global Market Comments March 6, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (INVESTING IN A STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM), (AFK), (GAF), (EZA), (THE LONG VIEW ON EMERGING MARKETS), (EWZ), (RSX), (PIN), (FXI) Market Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK) SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF) iShares MSCI South Africa Index … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Investing in a State Sponsor of Terrorism

Tribal Face

How about a country whose leaders have stolen $400 billion in the last decade and have seen 300 foreign workers kidnapped? Another country lost four wars in the last 40 years. Still interested? How about a country that suffers one of the world’s highest AIDs rates, endures regular insurrections where all of the Westerners get massacred, and racked up 5 million dead in a … [Read more...]

The Long View on Emerging Markets

Puzzle Pieces

I managed to catch a few comments in the distinct northern accent of Jim O'Neil, the fabled analyst who invented the 'BRIC' term, and who has been kicked upstairs to the chairman's seat at Goldman Sachs International (GS) in London. Jim thinks that it is still the early days for the space, and that these countries have another ten years of high growth ahead of them. As I … [Read more...]

The Great Yawn of 2013

Lion

Contrary to widespread predications, the sun rose this morning and the world did not end. The overnight reduction in our defense spending did not prompt expansionist, vengeful Mexicans to try to retake California and Texas, kicking soccer balls all the way. Cigar chomping Cuban communists did not capture Florida. Hockey stick brandishing Canadians failed to even launch another … [Read more...]

Industries You Will Never Hear From Me About

Arnold Swartenegger

The focus of this letter is to show people how to make money through investing in fast growing, highly profitable companies which have stiff, long-term macroeconomic winds at their backs. That means I ignore a large part of the US economy whose time has passed and are headed for the dustbin of history. According to the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the … [Read more...]

March 4, 2013

Global Market Comments March 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MARCH 6 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (THE DEATH OF GOLD, PART II), (GLD), (GDX), (GDM), (FXE), (UUP), (FXB), (GBB), (USO), (CU), (THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 2030), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) GOLD MINERS INDEX (GDM) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) PowerShares DB … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the March 6 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, March 6 at 12:00 noon EST. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]