The Cost of an Ageing World

Regular readers of this letter are well aware of my fascination with demographics as a market driver. They go a long way towards explaining if asset prices are facing a long-term structural headwind or tailwind. The great thing about the data is that you can get precise, high quality numbers 20, or even 50 years in advance. No matter how hard governments may try, you can’t … [Read more...]

August 11, 2014

Global Market Comments August 11, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (IS THE TURNAROUND AT HAND, AND TEN STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM?), (SPX), (TLT), (UNLOADING MORE EUROS), (FXE), (EUO), (I’M BACK FROM EUROPE!) S&P 500 Index (SPX) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) … [Read more...]

Is the Turnaround at Hand, and Ten Stocks to Buy at the Bottom?

Gun-Ammunition-War Room

War threatens in the Ukraine. Iraq is blowing up. Rebels are turning our own, highly advanced weapons against us. Israel invades Gaza. Ebola virus has hit the US. Oh, and two hurricanes are hitting Hawaii for the first time in 22 years. Should I panic and sell everything I own? Is it time to stockpile canned food, water and ammo? Is the world about to end? I think not. In … [Read more...]

Unloading More Euros

Vladimir Putin

The entire foreign exchange world has been on hold this week, waiting for ECB president Mario Draghi to announce a well-deserved cut in Euro (FXE), (EUO) interest rates. The sanctions war with Russia is escalating by the day. Russia banned food imports from the US and Europe, a mere $1 billion trade hickey for us, but a $15 billion punch to the gut for the continentals. Some … [Read more...]

I’m Back From Europe!

How Americans See Europe

Before I checked out of my hotel in Zermatt, Switzerland, I took the owner of my hotel out to dinner. I asked what he had learned after many years of hosting foreign guests. This is what he told me: HEAVEN IS WHERE: The police are British The chefs are Italian The mechanics are German The lovers are French And it is all organized by the Swiss HELL IS WHERE: The … [Read more...]

August 8, 2014

Global Market Comments August 8, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AUGUST 13 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (ANNOUNCING THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER YOUTUBE VIDEO IN ISTANBUL) (AN UPDATE ON THE TESLA FIRE), (TSLA) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) … [Read more...]

Announcing the Mad Hedge Fund Trader YouTube Video in Istanbul

John Thomas - Harem

Come with me to visit one of the most lavish palaces ever built, complete with its own harem. Explore one of the boldest engineering works ever undertaken. Learn how to navigate your way around a Turkish bazaar. Admire some of the greatest wonders of the architectural world. These are just a few of the enticements to be found in my personal video tour of Istanbul, … [Read more...]

An Update on the Tesla Fire

Tesla

Once again, Tesla (TSLA) visionary, Elon Musk, surprised to the upside with his latest reports on earnings and production for his revolutionary vehicle. Musk, who also founded groundbreaking Space X and Solar City (SCTY), expanded on his plans to manufacture in China and expand sales in Europe, where 220 volts is already standard. The first ever left hand drive Model S-1 was … [Read more...]

August 7, 2014

Global Market Comments August 7, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY I’M COVERING MY STOCK SHORTS), (SPY), (SPX), (HYG), (TBT), (TLT), (AN AFTERNOON SURPISE IN SWITZERLAND) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) S&P 500 Index (SPX) iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) … [Read more...]

Why I’m Covering My Stock Shorts

Putin

I’ll take the home run, thank you very much. Ten handles in the (SPY) on the downside in ten days totally works for me. We have milked this trade for all it’s worth, so it’s hasta la vista baby! Thank you Vladimir Putin! This is not a bad place to de-risk on the short side in stocks. Take a look at the charts below, and you will see a convergence of 100 day and 200 day support … [Read more...]

An Afternoon Surprise in Switzerland

40 Danks pin

Exhausted, and running on fumes, I returned to Zermatt from my assault on Monte Rose, at 15,203 feet, the highest mountain in Switzerland. You know, the one where I hung by a rope on a cliff face with one hand, while sending out a Trade Alert on my iPhone 5s to short the S&P 500 with the other? The desk clerk looked particularly grim. He said the city government had … [Read more...]

What Could Derail the Coming Golden Age?

Terminator

Regular readers of this letter are well familiar with my “Golden Age” scenario for the decade starting in 2020. That’s when US economic growth, assisted by a huge demographic tailwind, doubles from 2% to 4% a year, sending all asset prices soaring. Is this a sure thing? A done deal? Should I be betting the ranch now on such an outcome, even though it is still five years off? … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

Hi John, I was a subscriber when you first started the service.  Then I got busy and did not renew.  I listened to your webinar yesterday and bought the January (TBT) calls. I have already made over $12,000 on the trade.  So, I guess that I need to sign up for the service again! Suzanne Cary, North Carolina … [Read more...]

Shaking the Hand that Killed Osama bin Laden

No Easy Day

The team fought their way up two flights of stairs in pitch-blackness, dispatching several fighters along the way. A tall figure emerged in the green glow of the night vision goggles. It hesitated. Two shots were fired, and the body hit the ground. That was how Navy Seal Team Six member, Mark Owen, described the last seconds of Al Qaida leader, Osama bin Laden, in the raid … [Read more...]

August 4, 2014

Global Market Comments August 4, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (RUSSIAN SANCTIONS CRUSH EUROPEAN YIELDS), (FXE), (EUO), (TLT), (TBT), (UNG), (XOM) (TEA WITH FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE GEORGE SHULTZ) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) United States Natural Gas … [Read more...]

Russian Sanctions Crush European Yields

Tanker

When a rogue element of Ukrainian separatists used a heavy antiaircraft battery supplied by the Russians to shoot down Malaysian Airlines flight 17, who knew that it would send the European bond market into turmoil? Yet, that is exactly what happened. German and French ten-year bond yields have hit 300 year lows at around 1.12% and 1.50%. They achieved 500-year lows in the … [Read more...]

Tea With Former Secretary of State George Shultz

George Shultz - Barak Obama

Having spent time as an economics professor at MIT, Dean of the University of Chicago business school, Treasury Secretary, and Secretary of State, George Shultz has certainly covered all the bases. Now 93, he is the senior statesman and eminence grise of San Francisco, as well as a major philanthropist. When I read his bio, I feel like my own life in comparison has been … [Read more...]

Report from the Matterhorn Summit

Matterhorn Summit

From where I stand, the rolling foothills of Northern Italy spread out below me to the south. On my left lie the distinctive peaks of the Dolomite Alps. On my right I can see the massive expanse of Mont Blanc, at 15,781 feet the highest mountain in Europe. I am standing at the summit of the Matterhorn. Knock another item off the bucket list. I have been trying to climb this … [Read more...]

July 31, 2014

Global Market Comments July 31, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SETS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 24% GAIN IN 2014), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (EUO), (SPY), (AAPL), (MSFT), (ONSHORING TAKES ANOTHER GREAT LEAP FORWARD), (TSLA), (UMX), (EWW) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) CurrencyShares Euro ETF … [Read more...]

Onshoring Takes another Great Leap Forward

Man Fixing Machine

Have you tried to hire a sewing machine operator lately? I haven’t, but I have friends running major apparel companies who have (guess where I get all those tight fitting jeans?). Guess what? There aren’t any to be had. Since, 1990, some 77% of the American textiles workforce has been lost, when China joined the world economy in force, and the offshoring trend took … [Read more...]

My Old Pal, Leonardo Fibonacci

Fibonacci Sequence - Power Plant Chimney

I remember the 12th century like it was yesterday. In those days, the leading intellectuals used to get together and drink wine by the gallon, which then was really little more than rotten grape juice. The problem was that we all used to pass out before anybody came up with a great idea. Then someone started importing coffee from the Middle East and thinkers stayed awake … [Read more...]

July 29, 2014

Global Market Comments July 29, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TAKING PROFITS ON MY EURO SHORT), (FXE), (EUO), (HAVE CALM WATERS RETURNED FOR SHIPPING STOCKS?), ($BDI), (DRYS), (SEA), (GNK),  (RIO), (BHP), (KOL), (FXA), (EWA) (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) DryShips, Inc. (DRYS) Claymore/Delta … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on my Euro Short

Euro Symbol

The market marked our Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) August, 2014 $136-$138 in-the-money bear put spread at its maximum value of $2.00 last Wednesday. So I accepted the invitation to take profits and get out. For purposes of my P&L I’ll assume that it costs you two cents to execute, so I posted a selling price of $1.98. That should add 151 basis points to your 2014 … [Read more...]

Have Calm Waters Returned for Shipping Stocks?

Lutine Bell

The shipping stocks have had an OK year so far in 2014. The big question remains: “Is it real,” and “Is it sustainable?” This sector has been down for so long that most investors left it for dead a long time ago. All that was missing was the tolling of the Lutine Bell at the insurance exchange, Lloyds of London. Lured by the heroin of artificially cheap financing during … [Read more...]

July 28, 2014

Global Market Comments July 28, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL ITALY ISSUE Featured Trade: (JULY 30 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR FROM ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND), (WHAT TO DO ABOUT ITALY?), (EWI), (E), (TI), (LUX), (STM), (FIATY), (FXE) iShares MSCI Italy Capped (EWI) Eni SpA (E) Telecom Italia S.p.A. (TI) Luxottica Group SpA (LUX) STMicroelectronics NV (STM) Fiat S.p.A. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the July 30 Global Strategy Webinar Live From Zermatt, Switzerland

John Thomas

My next global strategy webinar will be held live from Zermatt, Switzerland on Wednesday, July 30 at 12:00 PM EDT. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take … [Read more...]

What to do About Italy?

John Thomas-Roman Colosseum

When British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, was informed that Italy joined the side of the Germans in the Second World War, he infamously replied, “Well, that’s only fair. They were our allies in the First World War.” Many investment strategists are similarly vexed today, trying to decide what to do about the home of the Roman Empire. Over the past 12 months, the Italy … [Read more...]

July 25, 2014

Global Market Comments July 25, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 30 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR FROM ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND), (A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED OPTIONS), (AN AFTERNOON WITH DR. PAUL EHRLICH), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB) Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT) The Mosaic Company (MOS) Agrium Inc. (AGU) Teucrium Corn ETF … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the July 30 Global Strategy Webinar Live From Zermatt, Switzerland

John Thomas

My next global strategy webinar will be held live from Zermatt, Switzerland on Wednesday, July 30 at 12:00 PM EDT. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take … [Read more...]

An Afternoon with Dr. Paul Ehrlich

India - Food

Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world’s food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. The never dull and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects that global warming … [Read more...]

July 24, 2014

Global Market Comments July 24, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JAPAN TO LAUNCH IRA’S), (DXJ), (FXY), (YCS), (KISS THAT UNION JOB GOODBYE) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) … [Read more...]

Japan to Launch IRA’s

Girl - Ticker

The Japanese government has introduced the Individual Retirement Account for individual investors in Japan for the first time. The move is part of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s multifaceted efforts to revive Japan’s economy, and could unleash as much as $690 billion in net buying into Japanese equities by 2018. The move was inspired American IRA’s, which were first introduced … [Read more...]

Kiss That Union Job Goodbye

Line Up - Queue

Those of you counting on getting your old union assembly line job back in Detroit can forget it. The eight year forecast published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 4.19 million jobs will be gained in the US in professional and business services, followed by 4 million health care and social assistance jobs, while 1.2 million will be lost in manufacturing. This … [Read more...]

July 23, 2014

Global Market Comments July 23, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE SECOND AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION), (INDU), (SPY), (QQQ), (USO), (UNG), (GLD), (DBA), (TESTIMONIAL) Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) United States Oil (USO) United States Natural Gas (UNG) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA) … [Read more...]

The Second American Industrial Revolution

John Thomas

Circulating among Europe’s top global strategists this summer, visiting their corner offices, camping out in their vacation villas or cruising on their yachts, I am increasingly hearing about a new investment theme that will lead markets for the next 20 years: The Second American Industrial Revolution. It goes something like this. You remember the first Industrial … [Read more...]

July 22, 2014

Global Market Comments July 22, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL ISSUE ON TURKEY Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 24 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR), (HAS TURKEY SUFFERED ENOUGH?),  (TUR), (EEM) iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the July 24 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

matterhorn-Copy2-1

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Thursday, July 24, 2014. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light … [Read more...]

Has Turkey Suffered Enough?

John Thomas

I am writing this to you from the veranda of the presidential suite at the Ciragan Palace Hotel in Istanbul. The former palace of an Ottoman prince, the commerce of the Straights of Bosphorus plays out before me. Empty supertankers lumber up the narrow waterway to pick up another load of Russian crude at Baku, followed by full containerships loaded with consumer goods to pay … [Read more...]

Checking in With SkyBridge’s Anthony Scaramucci

Anthony Scaramucci

“We are in a broad based liquidity driven bull market.” Furthermore, the major indexes are poised to tack on “another 10% by the end of this year.” That was the informed view of SkyBridge Capital managing partner Anthony Scaramucci, known as the “Mooch” to his friends. I touched based with Anthony while passing through New York a few weeks ago. Scaramucci’s Views are not … [Read more...]

July 18, 2014

Global Market Comments July 18, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SETS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 22.9% GAIN IN 2014), (AAPL), (CAT), (MSFT), (TLT), (GM), (SPY) (PLAY CHINA’S YUAN FROM THE LONG SIDE), (CYB), ($SSEC), (EEM) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) General Motors Company … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Sets New All Time High with 22.9% Gain in 2014

John Thomas

I am writing this to you from the island of Sardinia, part of Italy, a clump of arid mountains dropped right in the middle of the western Mediterranean. I am bobbing offshore from Porto Cuervo on the famed Costa Smeralda, or Emerald Coast, in a friend’s 100-foot sailboat, awaiting permission to enter. The water here is so clear that the boats appear to float on air. This … [Read more...]

Play China’s Yuan from the Long Side

Girl - Chinese

One of the oldest games in the foreign exchange market is to always buy the currencies of strong countries that are growing and to sell short the currencies of the weak countries that are shrinking. Any doubts that China’s Yuan is a huge screaming buy should have been dispelled when news came out that exports have once again started to surge, thanks to the recovery of its … [Read more...]

July 17, 2014

Global Market Comments July 17, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 24 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR) (ANNOUNCING THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER VIDEO CHANNEL ON YOUTUBE), (THE ULTRA BULL ARGUMENT FOR GOLD), (GLD), (GDX), (ABX), (SLV) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) … [Read more...]

July 24 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

matterhorn-Copy2-1

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Thursday, July 24, 2014. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light … [Read more...]

Announcing the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Video Channel on YouTube

John Thomas

One request I get more than any other, is to expand on my half century of international travel, provide a business, economic, and historical backdrop, and place it in today’s global context. Shake up such a cocktail of experience and knowledge, and more than a few trading and investment ideas spill over the top. If it’s funny, that helps too. It seems that I am one of a … [Read more...]

The Ultra Bull Argument for Gold

John Thomas -Gold

I have been an unmitigated bear on the price of gold for the past three years. In recent years, the world has been obsessed with yields, chasing them down to historic levels across all asset classes. The barbarous relic, which yields nothing, costs you money to store it and carries hefty transactions costs, doesn’t fit anywhere in such a universe. However, the recent … [Read more...]

July 16, 2014

Global Market Comments July 16, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 18 BARCELONA, SPAIN STRATEGY LUNCHEON)  (AN EVENING WITH TEXAS GOVERNOR RICK PERRY),  (LNG), (UNG), (TSLA) Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) United States Natural Gas (UNG) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the July 18 Barcelona, Spain Strategy Luncheon

Barcelona, Spain

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Barcelona, Spain on Friday, July 18, 2014. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

An Evening with Texas Governor Rick Perry

Rick Perry

As a precondition to joining a dinner with Texas governor, Rick Perry, I had to promise many things. I was not allowed to bring up the fact that he shoots coyotes while jogging. I couldn’t mention statistics proving that 70% of the jobs created in his state during his 12-year tenure as governor were government ones, not private. I was not even permitted to ask what would … [Read more...]

July 15, 2014

Global Market Comments July 15, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 17 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR FROM BARCELONA, SPAIN), (JUMPING BACK INTO APPLE), (AAPL), (HOW TO AVOID PONZI SCHEMES) Apple Inc. (AAPL) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the THURSDAY, July 17 Global Strategy Webinar Live From Barcelona, Spain

John Thomas

My next global strategy webinar will be held live from Barcelona, Spain on THURSDAY, July 17 at 12:00 PM EDT. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take … [Read more...]

Jumping Back Into Apple

Apple Trucking

Last Thursday, Trade Alert followers saw Mad Day Trader Jim Parker and I both jump into Apple (AAPL) on the long side, once again. When two old critters with a combined 85 years of trading experience, such as ourselves, agree on something, it is usually a pretty good idea. We were both responding to a rare $3, or 3.1% dip in the share price of Apple in response to the … [Read more...]

How to Avoid Ponzi Schemes

bernie madoff

I spent a sad and depressing, but highly instructional evening with Dr. Stephen Greenspan, who lost most of his personal fortune with Bernie Madoff. The University of Connecticut psychology professor had poured the bulk of his savings into Sandra Mansky’s Tremont feeder fund; receiving convincing trade confirms and rock solid custody statements from the Bank of New … [Read more...]

July 14, 2014

Global Market Comments July 14, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL MAD DAY TRADER ISSUE Featured Trade: (MAD DAY TRADER JIM PARKER’S Q3 VIEWS), (SPX), ($NDX), (QQQ), (TLT), (TBT), (FXA), (FXE), (FXY), (GLD), (GDX), (SLV), (USO), (UNG), (LNG), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA) SPX Corporation (SPW) Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond … [Read more...]

Mad Day Trader Jim Parker’s Q3 Views

Jim Parker

The stock markets are on the verge of a small correction, perhaps less than 5%, which should unfold over the next six weeks. There is just not enough juice in a mini crisis triggered by one lousy Portuguese bank, the Banco Espiritu Santo, to take us any further. Bonds globally should put in their highs for the year during this period. After that, it will be off to the … [Read more...]

July 11, 2014

Global Market Comments July 11, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THURSDAY, JULY 17 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR FROM BARCELONA, SPAIN), (JULY 24 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR), (WILL SYNBIO SAVE OR DESTROY THE WORLD?) Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) Monsanto Company (MON) SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the THURSDAY, July 17 Global Strategy Webinar Live from Barcelona Spain

John Thomas

My next global strategy webinar will be held live from Barcelona, Spain on THURSDAY, July 17 at 12:00 PM EST. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take … [Read more...]

July 24 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

matterhorn-Copy2-1

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Thursday, July 24, 2014. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light … [Read more...]

Will SynBio Save or Destroy the World?

Man Bio Hazard Suit

Some 40 years ago, when I was a biotechnology student at UCLA, a handful of graduate students speculated about how dangerous our work really was. It only took us an hour to figure out how to synthesize a microbe that had a 99% fatality rate, was immune to antibiotics, and was so simple it could be produced in your home kitchen. Basically, a bunch of bored students discovered … [Read more...]

July 10, 2014

Global Market Comments July 10, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY IS THE S&P 500 BEATING THE DOW), (SPY), (BAC), (HPQ), (AA), (GS), (V), (NKE), (AAPL), (GE), ($NIKK), (CAT), (DIS), (INTC), (AN EVENING WITH BILL GATES, SR.) (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Bank of America Corporation (BAC) Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) Alcoa Inc. (AA) The Goldman Sachs … [Read more...]

Why is the S&P 500 Beating the Dow?

Mickey Mouse

I often see one stock index outperform another, as different segments of the economy speed up, slow down, or go nowhere. Sometimes the reasons for this are fundamental, technical, or completely arbitrary. Many analysts have been scratching their heads this year over why the S&P 500 has been moving from strength to strength for the past year, while the Dow Average has … [Read more...]

An Evening with Bill Gates, Sr.

Bill Gates Jr-Sr

I had a chat with Bill Gates, Sr. recently, co-chairman of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the world’s largest private philanthropic organization. There, a staff of 800 helps him manage $30 billion. The foundation will give away $3.1 billion this year, a 10% increase over last year. Some $1.5 billion will go to emerging nation health care and another $750 million to … [Read more...]

July 9, 2014

Global Market Comments July 9, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 11 SARDINIA, ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (DON’T BE SHORT CHINA HERE), ($SSEC), (FXI), (CYB), (CHL), (BIDU), (CATCHING UP WITH ECONOMIST DAVID HALE), (EEM), (GREK), (IWW), (EWJ), (NGE), (FXY), (YCS) Shanghai Stock Exchange Index ($SSEC) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) WisdomTree … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the July 11 Sardinia, Italy Strategy Luncheon

Sardinia, Italy

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Golfo Arancia, Italy on Friday, July 11, 2014. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. Golfo Arancia is on the famous Costa Smeralda, some 15 kilometers north of Olbia, on the island of Sardinia. You … [Read more...]

Don’t Be Short China Here

Chinese Parade

Everyone who has been reading this letter for the past seven years (yes, there are quite a few of you), know that I am a fundamentalist first and a technician second. Of course you need to use both, as those who mistakenly leave one tool in the bag reliably underperform indexes. The one liner here is that I use fundamentals to identify broad, long term, even epochal … [Read more...]

Catching up with Economist David Hale

David Hale

I have been relying on David Hale as my de facto global macro economist for decades and I never miss an opportunity to get his updated views. The challenge is in writing down David’s eye popping, out of consensus ideas fast enough, because he spits them out in such a rapid-fire succession. Since David is an independent economic advisor to many of the world’s governments, … [Read more...]

July 8, 2014

Global Market Comments July 8, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 18 BARCELONA, SPAIN STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (TIME TO TAKE ANOTHER RIDE WITH GENERAL MOTORS), (GM), (F), (TM), (TESTIMONIAL), (QUANTITATIVE EASING EXPLAINED TO A 12 YEAR OLD) General Motors Company (GM) Ford Motor Co. (F) Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) … [Read more...]

July 18 Barcelona, Spain Strategy Luncheon

Barcelona, Spain

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Barcelona, Spain on Friday, July 18, 2014. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

Time to Take Another Ride with General Motors

Corvette

It is safe to say that all of the bad news is finally in the price at General Motors (GM). In the wake of the latest batch of recalls last week, the total number of cars slated for mandatory repairs now equals virtually all of the company’s production of the last five years. Woe to the outside supplier who provided those faulty, but cheap ignition switches to the beleaguered … [Read more...]

Quantitative Easing Explained to a Twelve Year Old

QE Explained youtube

I know you spend all day trolling the internet for the most entertaining video on YouTube every day. What, you don’t? I’m shocked, shocked. That’s OK, so I’ve done it for you. Click on the link below to watch a six-minute animation explaining quantitative easing to a 12 year old, using cute little cuddly figures. Was Ben Bernanke a plumber who was called to fix a pipe only … [Read more...]

July 7, 2014

Global Market Comments July 7, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE TIME TO DUMP THE EURO IS HERE), (FXE), (EUO), (UUP), (TAKING PROFITS ON CATERPILLAR), (CAT)  CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) … [Read more...]

The Time to Dump the Euro is Here

Euro Symbol

The blockbuster nonfarm payroll on Friday, coming in at a heady 288,000 has certainly removed any doubt that the US economy will reaccelerate in the fall. Earlier months were substantially revised up. Monthly job growth of 200,000 plus now seems to be the new norm, after five consecutive months of such prints. The headline unemployment rate plunged to 6.1%, a new six year … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on Caterpillar

Caterpillar Tractor

So, I’m sitting here in my Turkish redoubt, fighting off unusually aggressive flies and going over my charts. It’s further proof that no matter where in the world you travel, work follows you. There is truly no rest for the wicked. As a respite, I have the Best of the Guess Who playing on iTunes. I noticed that the market priced our Caterpillar (CAT) July, 2014 … [Read more...]

The Markets and President Hillary

Hillary Clinton

Yes, I know that the presidential election of 2016 is another two years off. But if you already know the outcome of that contest you can use it to your advantage trading the markets today. You don’t want to get caught out like many conservatives did in 2012, who were forced to dump stock in a hurry to beat a surprise jump in capital gains taxes after an unexpected Obama win, … [Read more...]

July 3, 2014

Global Market Comments July 3, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SETS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 19.74% GAIN IN 2014), (GOOGL), (TLT), (CAT), (IBM), (SPY), (VIX), (MSFT), (POPULATION BOMB ECHOES), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (RJA) (THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST) Google Inc. (GOOGL) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) Caterpillar Inc. … [Read more...]

Population Bomb Echoes

Crowd - Overcrowding

Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS) and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse of the world’s food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat (WEAT), corn (CORN), soybeans (SOYB) and rice. The never dull and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects … [Read more...]

July 2, 2014

Global Market Comments July 2, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 24 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR), (WHO WAS BEN BERNANKE?), (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH), (DRINKS WITH THE PRESIDENT) … [Read more...]

July 24 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

matterhorn-Copy2-1

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Thursday, July 24, 2014. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light … [Read more...]

Who is Ben Bernanke?

220px-Ben_Bernanke_official_portrait

Since nothing less than the fate of the free world depended on the judgment of Ben Bernanke, I thought I’d touch base with David Wessel, the Wall Street Journal economics editor, who has just published In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic. I doubted David could tell me anything more about the former Princeton professor I didn’t already know. I couldn’t have … [Read more...]

Please Use My Free Data Base Search

Woman hitting head

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up. You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box with the … [Read more...]

Drinks with the President

Obama with Security

President Barrack Obama certainly arrives at a party like a rock star. Three silver GM Suburban’s flanking a hulking, armored black Cadillac limo screech to a halt with lights flashing. All of the roads in the immediate vicinity are closed to traffic. A dozen sunglasses bedecked Secret Service agents leap out, immediately scanning the perimeter. The president bounds out … [Read more...]

July 1, 2014

Global Market Comments July 1, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHEN THE DEMOGRAPHIC HEADWIND BECOMES A TAILWIND), (LISTEN TO JOHN THOMAS ON HEDGE FUND RADIO), (AN AFTERNOON WITH ACE REPORTER HELEN THOMAS) (THE TAX RATE FALLACY) … [Read more...]

When the Demographic Headwind Becomes a Tailwind

People

I managed to catch up with my friend, Harry Dent, the other day, the guru on all things demographic (click here for his). Regular readers of this letter are well aware of the enormous headwind impeding all assets classes caused by the retirement of 80 billion baby boomers, which started in earnest at the beginning of 2012. With only 65 million Gen Xer’s of the following … [Read more...]

Listen to John Thomas on Hedge Fund Radio

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-1

During my recent trip to Australia, I had the privilege to be interviewed by Alan Patching, one of the leaders of the country’s vibrant business community. Alan was the chief organizer of the 2000 Sydney Olympics. He is the author of several business books. He is also a professor at Bond University in Perth, Australia. Patching is one of the top entrepreneurs in Australia, … [Read more...]

The Tax Rate Fallacy

irs

When anyone starts lecturing you that the US has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world, just turn around, walk away and pretend you never heard of them. This person is either ignorant about this country's taxation system or is deliberately trying to deceive you. According to a report released by the Internal Revenue Service, America's tax collection agency, the … [Read more...]

An Afternoon with Ace Reporter Helen Thomas

Helen Thomas

I managed to catch up with my former white House Press Corp colleague, Helen Thomas, just a short time before she passed away last year at the age of 92. Helen was the oldest and longest serving member of this esteemed group of journalists and had the traditional right to ask the first question at each press conference. The native Kentuckian covered every president since … [Read more...]

June 30, 2014

Global Market Comments June 30, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 7 ROME, ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (HOW OBAMACARE WILL BOOST YOUR PORTFOLIO), (XLV), (GILD), (XLS), (XPH), (XBI), (GOOG) Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) Exelis Inc. (XLS) SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH) SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) Google Inc. (GOOG) … [Read more...]

July 7 Rome, Italy Strategy Luncheon

Rome, Italy

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Rome, Italy on Monday, July 7, 2014. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. … [Read more...]

How Obamacare Will Boost Your Portfolio

Obama

Still basking in the glow of 2013’s spectacular 26% gain in the Dow, I sat down on a rock on a high mountain the other day to try and figure out what happened. The last time I saw a move this healthy was back in the nineties, when a perfect trifecta of the Internet going mainstream, cheap graphical user interface enabled personal computers, and an easy to use World Wide Web … [Read more...]

June 27, 2014

Global Market Comments June 27, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DON’T MISS THE JULY 2 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR) (JULY 24 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR) (THE TWO CENTURY DOLLAR SHORT), (CNN’S JOHN LEWIS; THE DEATH OF A COLLEAGUE) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the July 2 Global Strategy Webinar

Making Sure that your Next  Trade Alert brings home some Bacon

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, July 2 at 12:00 PM EDT. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take positions. I will also be opining … [Read more...]