November 19, 2014 – Quote of the Day

girl with money

If you can get a dividend higher than the yield on ten-year debt, it’s an opportunity we haven’t seen in our lifetime. On a five-year horizon, investing in large multinationals with high dividends will have a large payday,” said Lawrence Fink, CEO of BlackRock. … [Read more...]

November 18, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 18, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(NOVEMBER 19 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(JAPAN’S RUDE AWAKENING),(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ),(IS USA, INC. A “SELL”?) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) … [Read more...]

Japan’s Rude Awakening

Woman - Hari Kari

Traders in Japan suffered a rude awakening yesterday morning when the Ministry of International Trade and Industry announced that the troubled country’s GDP shrunk by -1.6% during the third quarter. Analysts had been expecting a gain of 2.2%. What’s worse, this is the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP, meaning that the Land of the Rising Sun is now solidly in … [Read more...]

Is USA Inc. a “SELL”?

USA Inc.

What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was cash flow negative, and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion? Chances are, you would cancel your subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, demand a refund, de-friend me from you Facebook account, and delete my email address from your contact list. Yet, that is precisely what my former colleague at … [Read more...]

November 18, 2014 – Quote of the Day


“At some point in 2014, knuckles are going to be turning white, and we'll see whatever rabbits Janet Yellen is going to have to pull out of her hat,” said David Rosenberg of Gluskin, Sheff & Associates. … [Read more...]

November 17, 2014

Global Market Comments November 17, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (BULL MARKET 2.0), (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH) … [Read more...]

Bull Market 2.0

Industrial Revolution

By now, the reasons behind this year’s bear market are pretty well known. Even my cleaning lady, Cecelia, can site them chapter and verse. Quantitative easing went global. Inflation fell, with the prices of almost all business input costs, like commodities, energy, interest rates, collapsing. Labor costs remained muted, so corporate profits rocketed. Voila! Stocks rose, … [Read more...]

Please Use My Free Data Base Search

Computer with Magnifying Glass

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up. You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box with the little … [Read more...]

November 14, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 14, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(NOVEMBER 19 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(THE 120/120 BATTLE),(FXY), (YCS), (FXE), (EUO), (UUP),(GET READY FOR YOUR NEXT BIG TAX HIT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) … [Read more...]

The 120/120 Battle

Wacky Guy

Foreign exchange traders are an odd lot. They tend to maintain a laser like focus on specific numbers that are utterly meaningless to us mere mortals, but which have momentous importance to themselves. Right now, one is hearing the battle cry over the 120/120 targets. Specifically, traders want to take the yen down to Y120 to the US dollar, and the Euro down to $1.20 by the … [Read more...]

Get Ready for Your Next Big Tax Hit

IRS Emblem plus

No matter what anyone promises you today, this week, or this year, your taxes are going up. I don’t care if you are still licking your wounds from the last payroll tax rise, or the federal tax hike for millionaires, which in my case took my rate up from 35% to 39.5%. At least the capital gains tax is still a steal at 20%. At $600 billion, the budget deficit is so enormous that … [Read more...]

November 14, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Finish Line

“Bull markets go everywhere from 1-2 years to five years after the Fed begins tightening. We’ve got a long way to go before we have to worry about bonds competing against stocks,” said Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School of Business … [Read more...]

November 13, 2014

Global Market Comments November 13, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AMERICA’S NATIVE INDIAN ECONOMY), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

America’s Native Indian Economy


When I was remodeling my 160-year-old London house, the chimney was in desperate need of attention. After the bricklayer crawled up the fireplace, he found a yellowed and somewhat singed envelope addressed to Santa Claus. Thinking it was placed there by my kids, he handed it over to me. In it was a letter penned in a childlike scrawl, written with a quill and ink, dated … [Read more...]


John Thomas

I have been following your trades for a while to the tune of several hundreds of thousands in profits. Kindly sign me up to the "A" team. Even after investing for over 30 years, some as a Wall St. pro, I need help with this market. Keep up the good work. BF West Chester, Pennsylvania … [Read more...]

November 13, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Man-I feel safe

“The longer that we see consistent returns in the stock market without messy 20% pullbacks, the more people are going to feel safe owning equities, and the more likely money comes out of bonds,” said Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors. … [Read more...]

November 12, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 12, 2014Fiat Lux SPECIAL FRACKING ISSUE Featured Trade:(WHY FRACKING WILL MAKE YOUR 2015 PERFORMANCE),(USO), (DIG), (UNG), (XOM), (OXY), (DVN), (APC), (DIG), (COG) United States Oil ETF (USO)ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG)United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG)Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)Devon Energy … [Read more...]

Why Fracking Will Make Your 2015 Performance


Be nice to investors on the way up, because you always meet them again on the way down. This is the harsh reality of those who have placed their money in the fracking space this year. The hottest sector in the market for the first half of the year, investors have recently fallen on hard times, with the price of oil collapsing from a $107 high in June to under $77 this morning, … [Read more...]

November 12, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Robotic Car Mfg.

“The question is not whether Tesla will sell 37,000 or 40,000 cars this year, but whether they will sell 14 million or 15 million in 15 years. I believe they can do it,” said Ron Baron of long-term value player, Baron Capital. … [Read more...]

November 11, 2014

Global Market Comments November 11, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE TAX RATE FALLACY), (A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN) … [Read more...]

The Tax Rate Fallacy


When anyone starts lecturing you that the US has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world, just turn around, walk away and pretend you never heard of them. This person is either ignorant about this country's taxation system or is deliberately trying to deceive you. According to a report released by the Internal Revenue Service, America's tax collection agency, the top … [Read more...]

A Tribute to a True Veteran

Medal of Honor

Today is Veterans Day, and I’ll be putting on my faded Marine Corp fatigues and railroad track bars and leading the home town’s Veteran’s Day parade. So I thought it would be a good day to tell you the story of my Uncle Mitch. Since job prospects for high school graduates in rural Pennsylvania in 1936 were poor, Mitch walked 200 miles to the nearest Marine Corp recruiting … [Read more...]

November 11, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Couple Reading Newspaper

“20 years ago I could read the Wall Street Journal every morning and feel that I knew enough to at least start my day. That is no longer true,” said technology guru and venture capital investor, Roger McNamee … [Read more...]

November 10, 2014

Global Market Comments November 10, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SHOPPING FOR A NEW BROKER) … [Read more...]

Shopping for a New Broker

Female Office Worker

Occasionally I hear from followers that they can’t execute one of my market beating Trade Alerts because broker commissions will eat up a large chunk of the potential profits. This is especially true with low dollar priced stocks, like Bank of America (BAC), involving large numbers of contracts. When I ask how much they are paying in commissions, I am absolutely appalled. … [Read more...]

November 7, 2014

Global Market Comments November 7, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HOW TO TRADE THE REST OF 2014), (TRIBUTE TO A GIANT OF JOURNALISM, ROY ESSOYAN) … [Read more...]

How to Trade the Rest of 2014

johnthomas transparent

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy, and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.” That is one of my favorite quotes from Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, and it was never more true than during the past 30 trading days. It turns out that the lowest risk day to buy stocks in 2014 was October 15, when we saw a giant, capitulation, spike low in the S&P 500 (SPY) down to $182. That … [Read more...]

Tribute to a Giant of Journalism, Roy Essoyan

Roy Essoyan

I had been filled with great sadness when I had learned of the passing of an old friend and mentor, Roy Essoyan, the former Tokyo bureau chief for the Associated Press. When I was a young, wet behind the ears financial journalist in Japan during the early seventies, Roy had the charity to take me under his wing and teach me a few tricks of the trade. We often met for lunch at … [Read more...]

November 6, 2014

Global Market Comments November 6, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS), (CHINA’S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE), (THE WORST TRADE OF ALL TIME), (GLD) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) … [Read more...]

Notice to Military Subscribers


To the dozens of subscribers in Afghanistan and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service! I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you muster out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from … [Read more...]

China’s Coming Demographic Nightmare


Thanks to China's “one child only” policy adopted 30 years ago, and a cultural preference for children who grow up to become family safety nets, there are now 32 million more boys under the age of 20 than girls. Large scale interference with the natural male:female ratio has been tracked with some fascination by demographers for years, and is constantly generating unintended … [Read more...]

The Worst Trade of All Time

Steve Martin

One of the great asset management blunders of all time has to be the European Community’s decision to sell its gold reserves in the wake of the launch of the Euro in 1998. The decision led to the fairly rapid sale of 3,800 metric tonnes of the yellow metal at an average price of $280/ounce, reaping about $56 billion, according to the Financial Times. Today with gold at … [Read more...]

November 6, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Hillary Clinton

“Asking if Hillary Clinton is going to run for president in 2016 is like asking if John Dillinger is going to rob a bank,” said conservative commentator, Mike Murphy. … [Read more...]

November 5, 2014


Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High With 41.6% Gain in 2014

John Thomas

I am writing this to you from my lakefront estate at Incline Village, Nevada. I thought I’d get one more 100-mile hike in before the heavy snow falls. By now the mountain lions have migrated to lower altitudes so it’s safer. I’ll need the fresh air to map out my trading strategy for 2015 to please the many new subscribers who have recently come on board. This market has killed … [Read more...]

Decoding the Greenback

US Dollar

If you want to impress your friends with your vast knowledge of financial matters, then here are the Latin translations of the script on the backside of a US dollar bill. “ANNUIT COEPTIS” means “God has favored our undertaking.” “NOVUS ORDO SECLORUM” translates into “A new order has begun.” The Roman numerals at the base of the pyramid are “1776.” The better known “E PLURIBUS … [Read more...]

The Fusion in Your Future


Expect to hear a lot about ignition in the next year. No, I don’t mean the rebuilt ignition for the beat up ’68 Cadillac El Dorado up on blocks in your front yard. I’m referring to the inauguration of the National Ignition Facility next door to me at Lawrence Livermore National Labs in Livermore, California. Mention California to most people, and images of love beads, tie died … [Read more...]

What About Asset Allocation?

Regis Philbin

Asset allocation is the one question that I get every day, which I absolutely cannot answer. The reason is simple: no two investors are alike. The answer varies whether you are young or old, have $1,000 in the bank or $1 billion, are a sophisticated investor or an average Joe, in the top or the bottom tax bracket, and so on. This is something you should ask your financial … [Read more...]

November 5, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Sign - True False

“When you look at the size of the US work force over the next 30 years, it is going to increase by 30%. That compares to Japan, where it is going to be shrinking, Europe, where it is contracting, and even China, where it turns down. The idea that the baby boomers are going to overwhelm this huge growth in the work force is a myth,” said Scott Minerd, Managing Partner of … [Read more...]

November 4, 2014

Global Market Comments November 4, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (IS THERE A BITCOIN IN YOUR FUTURE?) (TESTIMONIAL)   … [Read more...]


John Thomas

In my wealth management practice, you helped me finesse October like a virtuoso.  As my client’s investments were crashing through their stops…I hung on.  Your sage counsel helped me ignore the noise, focus on the numbers and add to positions at a great entry point.  The scar tissue you’ve built up over your career is no small benefit to your subscribers.  Thank you so much! … [Read more...]

November 3, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 3, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JAPANESE YEN MELTS DOWN TO 12 YEAR LOW!),(FXY), (YCS), (SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (DXJ),(THERE ARE NO GURUS),(WATCH OUT FOR THE MILLENNIAL VOTER)(TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year … [Read more...]

Japanese Yen Melts Down to 12-Year Low!


Those who woke up early Friday morning may be forgiven for blinking at their screens quite a few times. The Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS) was down by an incredible 3%, the Dow Average futures were trading at an all time high of $17,400, and the S&P 500 was just short of a new peak at $202. The Japanese stock market blasted 5% to the upside, taking the Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged … [Read more...]

There Are No Gurus

Love Guru

If there was ever an argument that you should rely on independent newsletters for guidance about financial markets, such as The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader and not traditional brokerage houses, take a look at the chart below from JP Morgan. It shows that despite all of the reforms passed after the dotcom crash, less than 3% of broker reports come with “sell” or … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Millennial Voter

College Kids

I have been banging the table for years now about the importance of demographic trends for the economy, the financial markets, and the housing market. Well, politics is no different. According to recent surveys, Millennials, who are now aged 23-34 (I have three of them) are suspicious of government, have a strong anti-business bias, are opposed to new regulation, are highly … [Read more...]



I watched John Thomas for a year before jumping in, and I should have done it earlier when he phenomenally traded that awful year, 2011, that whipsawed so many investors including myself. He again outperformed the market in 2012, and in 2013 so far he has shown amazing skill once more in navigating treacherous markets with deep-in-the-money call and put spreads. You can not … [Read more...]

November 3, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Foot on banana peel

“Risk control is the best route to loss avoidance. Risk avoidance, on the other hand, is likely to lead to return avoidance as well, said Howard Marks, founder of distressed debt giant, Oaktree Capital Management. … [Read more...]

October 31, 2014

Global Market Comments October 31, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 5 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (THE 2014 WORLD SERIES FROM YOUR BASEBALL CORRESPONDENT)   … [Read more...]

From Your Mad Hedge Fund Trader Baseball Correspondent

World Series Trophy

What a game! Burp. The San Francisco Giants trounced the Kansas City Royals 3-2 in what had to be one of the most exciting games in World Series History. After winning four of seven games, the City by the Bay brings home the Commissioner’s Trophy for the third time in five years. The Giants are starting to rival the incredible run enjoyed by the New York Yankees during the … [Read more...]

October 30, 2014

Global Market Comments October 30, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FAREWELL TO QUANTITATIVE EASING), (SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (EUO), (FXY), (YCS), (LNG), (BIDU), (TSLA), (BAC), (MS), (GS), (AXP), (AN EVENING WITH JAMES BAKER III), (CONNECTING UP AMERICA) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) … [Read more...]

Farewell to Quantitative Easing


Finally, at long last, after infinite amounts of speculation and false starts, the Federal Reserve has decided to end quantitative easing. After five years of soaking up both public and private debt in the marketplace, some $4.5 trillion worth, America’s central bank will quit picking up paper sometime next month. The printing presses are getting turned off and put into cold … [Read more...]

An Evening With James Baker III

James Baker

“We have 3,500 nuclear weapons left over from the cold war we don’t need, they take 20 seconds to re-aim, we’re not afraid to use them. And by the way, they’re already aimed at you.” That is the approach James Baker III thinks America should take with Iran, Ronald Reagan’s Chief of Staff and Secretary of the Treasury and George H.W. Bush’s Secretary of State. At the same time … [Read more...]

Connecting Up America

Tres Amigas

Until now, the country’s power grid has been divided into three unconnected, noncompetitive kingdoms (in the spirit of Game of Thrones), making transnational transmission impossible, leading to huge regional mispricing. While California and New York suffered from periodic brown outs and sky-high prices, electricity was given away virtually for free in Texas. A group of power … [Read more...]

October 30, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Recovery Sign

“We underestimated the negative impact of the slowdown in the housing market, and we may be underestimating the tail wind in its recovery,” said Uwe Mark Ruttke of Merrill Lynch, the top financial advisor in Colorado. … [Read more...]

October 29, 2014

Global Market CommentsOctober 29, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY WARREN BUFFETT HATES GOLD),(GLD), (ABX),(DINNER WITH ELIOT SPITZER)(GRAPES OF WRATH REDUX),(TESTIMONIAL) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) … [Read more...]

Why Warren Buffet Hates Gold

Gold Coin

The 'Oracle of Omaha' Warren Buffet often goes to great lengths to explain why he despises the barbarous relic. The sage doesn't really care about the yellow metal, whatever the price. He sees it primarily as a bet on fear. If investors are more afraid in a year than they are today, then you make money. If they aren't, then you lose money. If you took all the gold in the … [Read more...]

Dinner With Eliot Spitzer

Eliot Spitzer

I couldn’t for the life of me figure out why New York’s former governor and federal prosecutor, Eliot Spitzer, wanted to invite me to dinner. He wasn’t flogging a book or promoting a movie, and he certainly wasn’t running for office again. But I went anyway, thinking perhaps the notorious “Client No.9” might let me peek at his famous black book. Eliot, who showed up wearing a … [Read more...]

Grapes of Wrath Redux

Farmers Market

It’s another sign of the times when the weekend fruit picker population has doubled by people hard hit by the economy, looking to save money on food costs. After driving through miles of undulating brown hills studded with oak trees, passing mile upon mile of horse ranches, rusted out cars, and abandoned mobile homes, you come to Brentwood, the fruit capital of Northern … [Read more...]



Thanks John...rough ride out of the gates here...but I wouldn't want to be riding with anyone but are my life raft in this treacherous world of investing, and thank you for being who you are and for all that you do. Take care, Greg B. Agoura, California … [Read more...]

October 28, 2014

Global Market CommentsOctober 28, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(GOLDILOCKS IS BACK!), (SPY), ($INDU),(CHINA’S VIEW OF CHINA),(FXI), (EEM) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) … [Read more...]

Goldilocks is Back!


Her red Tesla is parked in the driveway, her potted plants are back on the balcony, and the closet is once again filled with designer shoes. Goldilocks is back! It’s not like she was ever going to be gone for long. Once a woman of a certain maturity gets accustomed to the lifestyle of the rich and famous, it’s hard to give up the better things in life. However, there were … [Read more...]

China’s View of China

China - Parade

I ran into Minxin Pei, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who imparted to me some iconoclastic, out of consensus views on China’s position in the world today. He thinks that power is not shifting from West to East; Asia is just lifting itself off the mat, with per capita GDP at $5,800, compared to $48,000 in the US. We are simply moving from a … [Read more...]

October 27, 2014

Global Market Comments October 27, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE TRUTH ABOUT EBOLA), (SPY), (AMERICA’S DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) … [Read more...]

The Truth about Ebola

Ebola Virus

Now we learn that the Ebola virus has been riding New York’s “A” train subway line since October 21! That is what we have learned from the physician from Doctors Without Borders, now locked up in the Ebola Ward at Manhattan’s Bellevue Hospital, just returned from treating victims in the West African country of Guinea. His girlfriend and some close friends have been rounded up … [Read more...]

America’s Demographic Time Bomb

Senior Citizens playing cards

You can never underestimate the importance of demographics in shaping long term investment trends, so I thought I’d pass on these two highly instructive maps. The first shows a map of the world drawn in terms of the population of children, while the second illustrates the globe in terms of its 100 year olds. Notice that China and India dominate the children’s map. Kids turn … [Read more...]



Holy smokes! You really did it with the UNG trade. Up 25% in two hours? How did you do that? It was the best trade you’ve ever done. It’s the best trade I’ve ever done. It was the right thing to do at the right time. And you had the balls to put it on after the (UNG) opened down a dollar. The follow up report was one of your best ever written as well. I will never again doubt … [Read more...]

October 24, 2014

Global Market CommentsOctober 24, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(IT’S ALL OVER FOR THE JAPANESE YEN),(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) … [Read more...]

It’s All Over for the Japanese Yen

Japanese Girl

“Oh, how I despise the yen, let me count the ways.” I’m sure Shakespeare would have come up with a line of iambic pentameter similar to this if he were a foreign exchange trader.   I firmly believe that a short position in the yen should be at the core of any hedged portfolio for the next decade. Lots of my hedge fund buddies agree with me, and they are right! To … [Read more...]

October 24, 2014 – Quote of the Day


“If you are going to be bearish and against this market, you are betting against the three richest men on the earth, Bernanke, Draghi, and Kuroda,” said market strategist, Ed Yardeni. … [Read more...]

October 23, 2014

Global Market CommentsOctober 23, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY US STOCKS ARE DIRT CHEAP), (SPX), (IWM), (AAPL), (MS), (GS), (TSLA), (USO)(HAPPY BIRTHDAY IRS!) SPX Corporation (SPW)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)Apple Inc. (AAPL)Morgan Stanley (MS)The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)United States Oil ETF (USO) … [Read more...]

Why US Stocks Are Dirt Cheap

JT with Tesla

Once again, the hedge fund industry got it completely wrong. Once they loaded the boat with shares in September, the stock market launched on a long awaited 10% correction, the first in three years. Remember when congress forced the US government to nearly default on the national debt? That was the last time we saw one of these. After promising all year to buy the first 10% … [Read more...]

Happy Birthday IRS!

Tax Form

Some taxpayers have been sending birthday cards in with their tax returns this year. That’s because the International Revenue Service, the collector of America’s tax revenues, is 101 years old this year. Although the wealthy have been paying income taxes since the 1861-65 Civil War, they did not apply to the rest of us until the passage of the 16th Amendment. The original form … [Read more...]

October 22, 2014

Global Market CommentsOctober 22, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(BANK OF AMERICA IS BREAKING OUT ALL OVER), (BAC), (XLF), (TLT)(AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER),(THE TECHNOLOGY NIGHTMARE COMING TO YOUR CITY) Bank of America Corporation (BAC)Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) … [Read more...]

Bank of America is Breaking Out All Over

Bank of America - ATM

Lost in the chaos of last week was Bank of America’s (BAC) Q3 earnings report, which was the best report from the company in the past seven years. What did the stock do? It dove 6.5%, along with the rest of the market, hitting a low of $15.40. I hate it when that happens, being right on the fundamentals, and wrong on the market timing. I mention all of this because followers … [Read more...]

An Evening with Travel Guru Arthur Frommer

Europe on $5 a Day, cover

Travel guru, Arthur Frommer, says that now is the best time to travel in 20 years, thanks to a combination of a strong dollar and desperate price-cutting forced by the recession. Four years after oil hit an historic peak at $148/barrel, when $500 fuel surcharges abounded, and the demise of the travel industry was widely predicted, costs in some countries, like Mexico and Costa … [Read more...]

The Technology Nightmare Coming to Your City


I tell people at my strategy luncheons that living in the San Francisco Bay area is like living in the future. There is an explosion of high tech innovation going on here, and we locals often find ourselves the guinea pigs for the latest hot products. However, sometimes the future is not such a great place to be. I learned this the other day when I received a parking ticket … [Read more...]

October 22, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Wheat Fields-Van Gogh

“Every recession sows the seeds for the next business recovery, and every recovery sows the seeds of the next recession,” said hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors. … [Read more...]

October 21, 2014

Global Market CommentsOctober 21, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(10 SIGNS OF A MARKET BOTTOM),(SPY), (IWM), (TLT), (FXE),(HOW TO SELL SHORT A CALL SPREAD),(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) … [Read more...]

10 Signs of a Market Bottom

Infrared Picture

Bottom? Bottom? Where’s the market bottom? The talking heads on TV have been working overtime speculating on where the worst move down in the stock market in three years will take us. It all may sound like intelligent prognosticating to you. As for me, I know they are guessing. So I shall share with you my ten benchmark indicators that you can closely track to decide for … [Read more...]

How to Sell Short a Call Spread


It’s time to teach some old dogs some new tricks. This is a bet that the S&P 500 does not climb to a new all time high by the November 21 expiration in 24 trading days. I think that we need to chop around here a bit and consolidate within a wide range before the (SPY) starts its New Year run to all time highs. Not wanting to leave a single penny on the table, I want to … [Read more...]

October 20, 2014

Global Market CommentsOctober 20, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 40% GAIN),(SPY), (TBT), (TSLA), (BAC), (GILD), (DAL), (AAPL), (VIX),(OCTOBER 22 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)Bank of America Corporation (BAC)Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)Delta … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High With 40% Gain in 2014

Giants Baseball Hitter

It was Thursday night, and the family was glued to the TV set. The San Francisco Giants were playing the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League Pennant. It was the bottom of the 9th inning, the score was tied 3-3, and the Giants were up. Two men were already on base. Then right fielder Travis Ishikawa blasted a home run out of the park, winning the game by 6-3. The fans … [Read more...]

October 20, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Military Police & Flowers

“The dirty little secret in Washington is that the biggest doves wear uniforms. They have seen wars and they have seen consequences. They have also been sent into conflict and then seen political support evaporate. We need to be a lot more careful when deploying our military forces.” said former Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates. … [Read more...]

October 17, 2014

Global Market CommentsOctober 17, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE BOTTOM BUILDING PROCESS HAS BEGUN),(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (GILD), (AAPL), (DAL),(FRIDAY OCTOBER 24 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(REVISITING CHENIERE ENERGY),(LNG), (USO), (UNG) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)Gilead Sciences Inc. … [Read more...]

The Bottom Building Process Has Begun

John Thomas - Young Man - Armed

I have an arrangement with several large hedge funds where they pay me a small fortune every month for the privilege of calling me one day a year. Wednesday was that day. It was a day when the $20 billion hedge fund waited on hold while I got off the phone with the $100 billion hedge fund. And that’s not including urgent calls from the White House, the office of the Joint … [Read more...]

Friday, October 24 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, October 24, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Revisiting Cheniere Energy (LNG)

Destroyed Town

I am constantly asked if there are any ways investors can take advantage of the fracking and horizontal drilling boom in natural gas. You don’t want to touch the gas producing companies, like Chesapeake (CHK) and Devon (DVN), because prices are probably going to stay down for years. Good firms that benefit from the increased volume of gas pumped are few and far between. … [Read more...]

October 17, 2014 – Quote of the Day


“The red light on a television camera going on has the same effect on members of congress as a full moon does on werewolves,” said former Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates. … [Read more...]

October 16, 2014

Global Market CommentsOctober 16, 2014Fiat Lux SPECIAL AIRLINE ISSUE Featured Trade:(DELTA AIRLINES IS CLEARED FOR TAKEOFF),(DAL), (UAL), (AAL), LUV), (USO), (TLT) Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL)American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)United States Oil ETF (USO)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) … [Read more...]

Delta Airlines is Cleared for Takeoff

John Thomas Croatia

When I was a young, clueless investment banker at Morgan Stanley 30 years ago, the head of equity sales took me aside to give me some fatherly advice. Never touch the airlines. The profitability of this industry was totally dependent on fuel costs, interest rates and the state of the economy, and management hadn't the slightest idea of what any of these were going to do. If I … [Read more...]