What’s Really Happening in the Middle East

Missile

Long-term observers of financial markets are befuddled, confused, and amazed at their complete lack of interest in the rapidly unfolding events in the Middle East. It seems that the more horrific the atrocities, the higher stock prices want to climb. Go figure. ISIS is in fact accelerating the most important geopolitical event so far in this century, the rapprochement of … [Read more...]

September 3, 2014

Global Market Comments September 3, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE CASE FOR BUYING FINANCIALS) (BAC), (C), (AXP), (TLT), (THE MYSTERY OF THE BRASHER DOUBLOON), (TESTIMONIAL) Bank of America Corporation (BAC) Citigroup Inc. (C) American Express Company (AXP) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) … [Read more...]

The Case for Buying Financials

John Thomas and Barney Frank

Regular readers of this letter are probably weary of me harping away about the financials as a great place to put your money for the rest of 2014. Never mind that these names have all jumped 10% in the past month. But this is not an “I told you so” story. This is more of a “But wait, there’s more,” story. The basis for my call is quite simple. I believe that bond prices are … [Read more...]

The Mystery of the Brasher Doubloon

Brasher Doubloon

I’ll never forget when my friend, Don Kagin, one of the world’s top dealers in rare coins, walked into the gym one day and announced that he made $1 million that morning.  I enquired “How is that, pray tell?” He told me that he was an investor and technical consultant to a venture hoping to discover the long lost USS Central America, which sunk in a storm off the Atlantic … [Read more...]

September 2, 2014

Global Market Comments September 2, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TACKLING THE INFLATION MYTH), (AAPL), (GOOG), (TWTR), (FB), (THE BULL MARKET IN AMERICAN COLLEGE DEGREES) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Google Inc. (GOOG) Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) Facebook, Inc. (FB) … [Read more...]

Tackling the Low Inflation Myth

David Stockman

I have long told my listeners at conferences, webinars and strategy luncheons my definition of the “new inflation”: The price for whatever you have to buy is rising, as with energy, health care and a college education. The price of the things you need to sell, such as your labor and services, is falling. So while official government numbers show that the overall rate of … [Read more...]

The Bull Market in American College Degrees

Graduation Cap

I recently spent a weekend attending a graduation in Washington State, a stone’s throw from where the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics were held. While sitting through the tedious reading of 550 names, I was struck by how many seemed to come from abroad. As I listened to the wailing ceremonial bagpipes, I did several calculations on the back of the commencement program and was … [Read more...]

September 1, 2014

Global Market Comments September 1, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SALUTING THE “OLD BREED”) (WHERE THE ECONOMIST “BIG MAC” INDEX FINDS CURRENCY VALUE), (MCD), (FXE), (YCS), (FXF), (CYB) (TESTIMONIAL) McDonald's Corp. (MCD) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) … [Read more...]

Saluting the “Old Breed”

The Pacific by Hugh Ambrose

It was with a mixture of nostalgia and awe that I attended the reunion luncheon celebrating the 72nd anniversary of America’s invasion of Guadalcanal. The event was hosted by my former division commander in Desert Storm, Major General Mike Myatt, at the Marines Memorial Association in San Francisco. I was there to represent the family. My Uncle, Colonel Mitchell Paige, won … [Read more...]

Where The Economist “Big Mac” Index Finds Currency Value

mcdonaldsJapan

My former employer, The Economist, once the ever tolerant editor of my flabby, disjointed, and juvenile prose (Thanks Peter and Marjorie), has released its “Big Mac” index of international currency valuations. Although initially launched by an imaginative journalist as a joke three decades ago, I have followed it religiously and found it an amazingly accurate predictor of … [Read more...]

August 29, 2014

Global Market Comments August 29, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAKING HAY WITH THE EAGLE FORD SHALE), (USO), (UNG), (XOM), (CVX), (LNG), (CHK), (HAL) (THE PASSING OF A GREAT MAN) United States Oil (USO) United States Natural Gas (UNG) Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Chevron Corporation (CVX) Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) Chesapeake Energy Corporation … [Read more...]

Making Hay in the Eagle Ford Shale

House

Sell the shovels to the gold miners. That was the lesson of the 1849 California gold rush. How many individual gold miners can you name today? How about none, unless you are an expert on the obscure street names of San Francisco. And the companies that sold supplies and services to them? Try Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), Union Pacific (UNP), and Levi Strauss. Some … [Read more...]

The Passing of a Great Man

Bob

It was with a heavy heart that I boarded a plane for Los Angeles to attend a funeral for Bob, the former scoutmaster of Boy Scout Troop 108. The event brought a convocation of ex-scouts from up and down the West coast, and said much about our age. Bob, 85, called me two weeks ago to tell me his CAT scan had just revealed advanced metastatic lung cancer. I said … [Read more...]

August 28, 2014

Global Market Comments August 28, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TAKING A LOOK AT SOLAR CITY), (SCTY), (TSLA), (PCG) (SAN FRANCISCO’S SUFFERING RENTERS TAKE ANOTHER HIT) SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) PG&E Corporation (PCG) … [Read more...]

Taking a Look at Solar City

John Thomas - Tesla

In recent weeks, I couldn’t help but notice the green and white vans of Solar City (SCTY) visiting my neighbors. My trader’s radar went up, so I thought there might be an opportunity here. With my second Tesla (TSLA) about to be delivered, the Model X SUV, it was time for me to review my electricity bill. My first Tesla, an S-1, boosted my monthly power consumption from 600 … [Read more...]

San Francisco’s Suffering Renters Take Another Hit

Apt. Building

The San Francisco Bay area’s beleaguered renting class moaned again when the social media giant, Twitter (TWTR) finally went public. The deal immediately placed $1.82 billion into the pockets of early shareholders, almost all of whom live near the company’s San Francisco headquarters. This is adding insult to injury to those in the region who are desperately seeking a home. … [Read more...]

August 27, 2014

Global Market Comments August 27, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHAT TO DO ABOUT APPLE?), (AAPL), (THE PARTY IS JUST GETTING STARTED WITH THE JAPANESE YEN), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ) Apple Inc. (AAPL) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) … [Read more...]

What to Do About Apple?

iPhones

Those who followed my advice to buy Apple a year ago are now drowning in riches (click here for “Buy Apple on the Dip”). Since the July, 2013 bottom, the shares have risen by a meteoric 92%. It is the largest company in the world once again. As a result, I have heard of my readers shopping for second homes on Lake Tahoe, sponsoring NASCAR teams, or buying new Rolex watches for … [Read more...]

The Party is Just Getting Started With the Japanese Yen

Japanese Lady-Sad

“Oh, how I despise the yen, let me count the ways.” I’m sure Shakespeare would have come up with a line of iambic pentameter similar to this if he were a foreign exchange trader. I firmly believe that a short position in the yen should be at the core of any hedged portfolio for the next decade. To remind you why you hate the currency of the land of the rising sun, I’ll refresh … [Read more...]

August 26, 2014

Global Market Comments August 26, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AUGUST 27 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (WHY I’M COVERING SOME EURO SHORTS), (FXE), (EUO), (THAT WAS SOME SHAKER!) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) … [Read more...]

Why I’m Covering Some Euro Shorts

Falling 100 Bills-Euros

We have snatched 92% of the potential profit in the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) September, 2014 $133-$135 in-the-money bear put spread, riding the Euro (FXE) down on the short side, from $1.33 down to $1.30. The risk/reward of continuing with such a large position is no longer justified. So I am going to reduce my overweight position down from 20% back to a more normal … [Read more...]

That was Some Shaker!

Napa Valley Earthquake 8-2014

Wow! There is nothing like being tossed out of bed at 3:20 AM by a massive earthquake! It really gets the juices flowing. I was really praying that the wooden roof creaking and groaning above was not about to land on my head. After hurriedly getting dressed, I grabbed a flashlight and ran downstairs to check the gas lines and water mains. So far, so good. Compliant with … [Read more...]

August 25, 2014

Global Market Comments August 25, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MY END 2014 STOCK MARKET FORECAST), (SPY), (ALL I WANT TO DO IS RETIRE), (TAKE A LOOK AT OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM), (OXY), (BP), (OIL), (UNG),  (NSANY), (XOM) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) BP plc (BP) iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN (OIL) United States Natural Gas … [Read more...]

My End 2014 Stock Market Forecast

Uncle Sam - Fist

If anyone had any doubts about the future direction of stocks this year, you better take a look at the chart below for the S&P 500. It shows a very convincing trend upward at almost a perfect 45-degree angle going back for the past year. The range is 100 points wide. It’s almost as if an architect drew it with drafting tools. To take maximum advantage of this trend, you … [Read more...]

All I Want to do is Retire

Dollar in Vice

I have always believed that if you don’t have a sense of humor, then you better get the hell out of this business. Below is a link to a YouTube video entitled “All I Want to do is Retire” which covers the decline of the brokerage industry over the last 20 years. The video is currently going viral, with 87,000 views so far, and was sent to me by a subscriber. Watch this … [Read more...]

Take a Look at Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Faberge Egg

There are a lot of belles at the ball, but you can’t dance with all of them. While a student at UCLA in the early seventies, I took a World Politics course, which required me to pick a country, analyze its economy, and make recommendations for its economic development. I chose Algeria, a country where I had spent the summer of 1968 caravanning among the Bedouins, crawling out … [Read more...]

August 22, 2014

Global Market Comments August 22, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AUGUST 27 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (MIXING WITH THE 1% AT THE PEBBLE BEACH CONCOURSE D’ ELEGANCE) … [Read more...]

Mixing with the 1% at Pebble Beach

Ferrari 375 MM Scaglietti Coupe

On the right was my friend’s 1958 Ferrari Testa Rossa Scaglietta. On my left was a 1929 Dusenberg Murphy convertible sedan with a V-12 engine. I just walked past a 1914 Rolls Royce Silver Ghost Portholme Alpine Tourer. Yes, it’s August in Pebble Beach, California, and that can only mean one thing. It’s time for another Concourse d’ Elegance car show. This is my annual … [Read more...]

August 21, 2014

Global Market Comments August 21, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY US STOCKS ARE DIRT CHEAP), (SPY), (IWM), (QQQ), (TSLA) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) … [Read more...]

Why US Stocks Are Dirt Cheap

JT with Tesla

Many commentators are warning of a top, a bubble and Armageddon to come in the stock market. There has not been a 10% correction in the indexes since the debt ceiling crisis three years ago. But I think that we are just getting started. Share prices have the rocket fuel for the Dow average to make it to 18,000 by the end of 2014, and possibly 100,000 by 2025. To understand … [Read more...]

August 20, 2014

Global Market Comments August 20, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE EURO BREAKS DOWN), (FXE), (EUO), (TLT), (APPLE BREAKS $100), (AAPL) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) Apple Inc. (AAPL) … [Read more...]

The Euro Breaks Down

Mario Draghi

You usually don’t expect US housing data to cause the collapse of a foreign currency. But that is exactly what happened this morning. The announcement by the Census Bureau that new home stats for July came in at a breathtaking 1.09 million, up 15.7%, blew away even the optimistic forecasts. Earlier figures for June were revised up substantially. New building permits for July … [Read more...]

Apple Breaks $100

Gibraltar

Since I am in a major patting myself on the back mood, I thought I would rerun a piece I ran last October entitled “Apple is Ready to Explode”. This is back when the shares were trading at a lowly $490 a share. Since then I have been urging readers to get in on the long side at every opportunity. They are now up a mind boggling 43% from that timely recommendation. They are … [Read more...]

August 19, 2014

Global Market Comments August 19, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY WE DON’T CARE ABOUT OIL), (USO), (UNG) (AUSTERITY HITS WALL STREET) (THE TWELVE DAY YEAR) United States Oil (USO) United States Natural Gas (UNG) … [Read more...]

Why We Don’t Care About Oil

Man-Oil Bottles

There’s nothing like seeing your long term forecasts vindicated. When I warned the oil majors in the late 1990’s that fracking technology was about to change their world beyond all recognition, they told me I was out of my tree, in the politest way possible, of course. Their argument was that the technology was untested, unproven, and a huge liability risk. If they accidently … [Read more...]

Austerity Hits Wall Street

ny-taxi-cabs

This year, your bonus is that you get to keep your job. That is the bad news that will be dished out to many disappointed staff during annual reviews at the major Wall Street firms this year. We all know that volumes have been trading at subterranean levels, which have created a real draught of commission incomes. New regulations imposed by Dodd-Frank and the Volker rule mean … [Read more...]

The Twelve Day Year

Man Sleeping on Couch

I have reported in the past on the value of the Friday-Monday effect, whereby the bulk of the year's performance can be had through buying the Friday close in the stock market and then selling the Monday close (click here for “The Friday-Monday Effect Exposed”). Well, I have discovered a further distillation of this phenomenon. During 2010, the S&P 500 rose by 143 points. … [Read more...]

August 18, 2014

Global Market Comments August 18, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SETS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 27% GAIN IN 2014), (SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (EUO), (WILL GOLD SUFFER THE FATE OF THE $10,000 BILL?) (GLD), (GDX) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) CurrencyShares Euro ETF … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Sets New All Time High with 27% Gain in 2014

John Thomas

If you think this letter is being written by someone who is stoned, you’d be at least partially right this morning. For that is the after effect of my attending the Paul McCartney concert at Candlestick Park in San Francisco last night. I was sitting in the infield in the most expensive $1,000 seats, well attended by Silicon Valley royalty. Excuse me Mr. Cook, can I please get … [Read more...]

August 15, 2014

Global Market Comments August 15, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (BONDS OR STOCKS: WHO’S RIGHT?), (TLT), (TBT), (SPY), (WHO SAYS THERE AREN’T ANY JOBS?), (TESTIMONIAL) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) … [Read more...]

Bonds or Stocks: Who’s Right?

Wrong-Right  Sign

Treasury bonds spike to new one year highs, closing at a 2.40% yield, and trading as low as a 2.30% yield in the overnight market at one point last week. Clearly, serious deflation is continuing for the indefinite future. Buy more bonds! US corporate profits are at all time highs, just closing one of the strongest reporting periods in history. What’s more, the outlook they … [Read more...]

Who Says There Aren’t Any Jobs?

Marlon Brando

While recently winging my way across the South Pacific a few months ago, I spotted an unusual job offer: WANTED: Social worker, tax free salary of $60,000 with free accommodation and transportation, no experience necessary, must be flexible and self-sufficient. With the unemployment rate at 6.2%, and running as high as 45% for recent college grads, I was amazed that they were … [Read more...]

August 14, 2014

Global Market Comments August 14, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HOW THE UKRAINE CRISIS WILL PLAY OUT), (USO), (UNG), (WMT), (AAPL), (MCD) (MY PERSONAL ECONOMIC INDICATOR), (HMC), (NSANY), (GM), (F), (TSLA) United States Oil (USO) United States Natural Gas (UNG) Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) Apple Inc. (AAPL) McDonald's Corp. (MCD) Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) Nissan … [Read more...]

How the Ukraine Crisis Will Play Out

McDonalds Russia

I can tell you exactly how the crisis in the Ukraine is going to play out. This has major implications for the global economy, financial markets and your personal portfolio, so listen up! The key to deciphering this puzzle is oil, far and away Russia’s largest export. At 10 million barrels a day, the country is taking in $360 billion a year in revenues from oil shipments. You … [Read more...]

My Personal Leading Economic Indicator

Honda Car Lot

There is no limit to my desire to get an early and accurate read on the US economy, which at the end of the day is what dictates the future of all of our investments. I flew over one of my favorite leading economic indicators only yesterday. Honda (HMC) and Nissan (NSANY) import millions of cars each year through their Benicia, California facilities, where they are loaded on … [Read more...]

August 13, 2014

Global Market Comments August 13, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (A SAD FAREWELL TO ROBIN WILLIAMS), (THE CASE AGAINST TREASURY BONDS), (TBT), (TLT), (MUB), (LQD), (LINE), (A NOTE ON THE FRIDAY OPTIONS EXPIRATION), (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB) iShares iBoxx $ Invst … [Read more...]

A Sad Farewell to Robin Williams

Robin Williams

Sorry to get the letter out late this morning, but I am still reeling the passing of my old friend, comedian Robin Williams. I heard about it last night on the radio, while on my nightly hike on nearby Grizzly Peak. His mother lived directly next door to my family for many years. A petite widow in her late seventies, we often looked in on her, and invited her into our … [Read more...]

The Case Against Treasury Bonds

Uncle Sam

My friend, Texan money manager Mike Robertson, asked me the other day if there was one asset class that I truly despised. I didn’t hesitate: bonds. In fact, fixed income investments are about to regain the nickname they earned during the 1980’s: “certificates of wealth confiscation.” With the ten year Treasury bond yield at a microscopic 2.40%, and 3.25% for the 30 year, you … [Read more...]

A Note on the Friday Options Expiration

John Thomas

We have a couple of options positions that expire on Friday, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. These include: iShares Barclay 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) August, 2014 $115-$118 in-the-money bear put spread with a cost of $2.70 iShares Barclay 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) August, 2014 $117-$120 in-the-money bear put … [Read more...]

August 12, 2014

Global Market Comments August 12, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AUGUST 13 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (THE COST OF AN AGING WORLD), (EWJ), (EWI), (EWG), (EWQ), (EWL), (EWU), (PIN), (TESTIMONIAL) iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ) iShares MSCI Italy Capped (EWI) iShares MSCI Germany (EWG) iShares MSCI France (EWQ) iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped Index (EWL) iShares MSCI United … [Read more...]

The Cost of an Ageing World

Regular readers of this letter are well aware of my fascination with demographics as a market driver. They go a long way towards explaining if asset prices are facing a long-term structural headwind or tailwind. The great thing about the data is that you can get precise, high quality numbers 20, or even 50 years in advance. No matter how hard governments may try, you can’t … [Read more...]

August 11, 2014

Global Market Comments August 11, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (IS THE TURNAROUND AT HAND, AND TEN STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM?), (SPX), (TLT), (UNLOADING MORE EUROS), (FXE), (EUO), (I’M BACK FROM EUROPE!) S&P 500 Index (SPX) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) … [Read more...]

Is the Turnaround at Hand, and Ten Stocks to Buy at the Bottom?

Gun-Ammunition-War Room

War threatens in the Ukraine. Iraq is blowing up. Rebels are turning our own, highly advanced weapons against us. Israel invades Gaza. Ebola virus has hit the US. Oh, and two hurricanes are hitting Hawaii for the first time in 22 years. Should I panic and sell everything I own? Is it time to stockpile canned food, water and ammo? Is the world about to end? I think not. In … [Read more...]

Unloading More Euros

Vladimir Putin

The entire foreign exchange world has been on hold this week, waiting for ECB president Mario Draghi to announce a well-deserved cut in Euro (FXE), (EUO) interest rates. The sanctions war with Russia is escalating by the day. Russia banned food imports from the US and Europe, a mere $1 billion trade hickey for us, but a $15 billion punch to the gut for the continentals. Some … [Read more...]

I’m Back From Europe!

How Americans See Europe

Before I checked out of my hotel in Zermatt, Switzerland, I took the owner of my hotel out to dinner. I asked what he had learned after many years of hosting foreign guests. This is what he told me: HEAVEN IS WHERE: The police are British The chefs are Italian The mechanics are German The lovers are French And it is all organized by the Swiss HELL IS WHERE: The … [Read more...]

August 8, 2014

Global Market Comments August 8, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AUGUST 13 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (ANNOUNCING THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER YOUTUBE VIDEO IN ISTANBUL) (AN UPDATE ON THE TESLA FIRE), (TSLA) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) … [Read more...]

Announcing the Mad Hedge Fund Trader YouTube Video in Istanbul

John Thomas - Harem

Come with me to visit one of the most lavish palaces ever built, complete with its own harem. Explore one of the boldest engineering works ever undertaken. Learn how to navigate your way around a Turkish bazaar. Admire some of the greatest wonders of the architectural world. These are just a few of the enticements to be found in my personal video tour of Istanbul, … [Read more...]

An Update on the Tesla Fire

Tesla

Once again, Tesla (TSLA) visionary, Elon Musk, surprised to the upside with his latest reports on earnings and production for his revolutionary vehicle. Musk, who also founded groundbreaking Space X and Solar City (SCTY), expanded on his plans to manufacture in China and expand sales in Europe, where 220 volts is already standard. The first ever left hand drive Model S-1 was … [Read more...]

August 8, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Dice

It amazes me how quickly amnesia sets in,” said Stephen Crawford, former co-president of Morgan Stanley, about the willingness of hedge funds to re-leverage positions in these conditions. … [Read more...]

August 7, 2014

Global Market Comments August 7, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY I’M COVERING MY STOCK SHORTS), (SPY), (SPX), (HYG), (TBT), (TLT), (AN AFTERNOON SURPISE IN SWITZERLAND) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) S&P 500 Index (SPX) iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) … [Read more...]

Why I’m Covering My Stock Shorts

Putin

I’ll take the home run, thank you very much. Ten handles in the (SPY) on the downside in ten days totally works for me. We have milked this trade for all it’s worth, so it’s hasta la vista baby! Thank you Vladimir Putin! This is not a bad place to de-risk on the short side in stocks. Take a look at the charts below, and you will see a convergence of 100 day and 200 day support … [Read more...]

An Afternoon Surprise in Switzerland

40 Danks pin

Exhausted, and running on fumes, I returned to Zermatt from my assault on Monte Rose, at 15,203 feet, the highest mountain in Switzerland. You know, the one where I hung by a rope on a cliff face with one hand, while sending out a Trade Alert on my iPhone 5s to short the S&P 500 with the other? The desk clerk looked particularly grim. He said the city government had … [Read more...]

August 6, 2014

Global Market Comments August 6, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHAT COULD DERAIL THE COMING GOLDEN AGE?) (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

What Could Derail the Coming Golden Age?

Terminator

Regular readers of this letter are well familiar with my “Golden Age” scenario for the decade starting in 2020. That’s when US economic growth, assisted by a huge demographic tailwind, doubles from 2% to 4% a year, sending all asset prices soaring. Is this a sure thing? A done deal? Should I be betting the ranch now on such an outcome, even though it is still five years off? … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

Hi John, I was a subscriber when you first started the service.  Then I got busy and did not renew.  I listened to your webinar yesterday and bought the January (TBT) calls. I have already made over $12,000 on the trade.  So, I guess that I need to sign up for the service again! Suzanne Cary, North Carolina … [Read more...]

August 5, 2014

Global Market Comments August 5, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SHAKING THE HAND THAT KILLED OSAMA BIN LADEN) … [Read more...]

Shaking the Hand that Killed Osama bin Laden

No Easy Day

The team fought their way up two flights of stairs in pitch-blackness, dispatching several fighters along the way. A tall figure emerged in the green glow of the night vision goggles. It hesitated. Two shots were fired, and the body hit the ground. That was how Navy Seal Team Six member, Mark Owen, described the last seconds of Al Qaida leader, Osama bin Laden, in the raid … [Read more...]

August 4, 2014

Global Market Comments August 4, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (RUSSIAN SANCTIONS CRUSH EUROPEAN YIELDS), (FXE), (EUO), (TLT), (TBT), (UNG), (XOM) (TEA WITH FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE GEORGE SHULTZ) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) United States Natural Gas … [Read more...]

Russian Sanctions Crush European Yields

Tanker

When a rogue element of Ukrainian separatists used a heavy antiaircraft battery supplied by the Russians to shoot down Malaysian Airlines flight 17, who knew that it would send the European bond market into turmoil? Yet, that is exactly what happened. German and French ten-year bond yields have hit 300 year lows at around 1.12% and 1.50%. They achieved 500-year lows in the … [Read more...]

Tea With Former Secretary of State George Shultz

George Shultz - Barak Obama

Having spent time as an economics professor at MIT, Dean of the University of Chicago business school, Treasury Secretary, and Secretary of State, George Shultz has certainly covered all the bases. Now 93, he is the senior statesman and eminence grise of San Francisco, as well as a major philanthropist. When I read his bio, I feel like my own life in comparison has been … [Read more...]

August 1, 2014

Global Market Comments August 1, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (REPORT FROM THE MATTERHORN SUMMIT) … [Read more...]

Report from the Matterhorn Summit

Matterhorn Summit

From where I stand, the rolling foothills of Northern Italy spread out below me to the south. On my left lie the distinctive peaks of the Dolomite Alps. On my right I can see the massive expanse of Mont Blanc, at 15,781 feet the highest mountain in Europe. I am standing at the summit of the Matterhorn. Knock another item off the bucket list. I have been trying to climb this … [Read more...]

July 31, 2014

Global Market Comments July 31, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SETS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 24% GAIN IN 2014), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (EUO), (SPY), (AAPL), (MSFT), (ONSHORING TAKES ANOTHER GREAT LEAP FORWARD), (TSLA), (UMX), (EWW) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) CurrencyShares Euro ETF … [Read more...]

Onshoring Takes another Great Leap Forward

Man Fixing Machine

Have you tried to hire a sewing machine operator lately? I haven’t, but I have friends running major apparel companies who have (guess where I get all those tight fitting jeans?). Guess what? There aren’t any to be had. Since, 1990, some 77% of the American textiles workforce has been lost, when China joined the world economy in force, and the offshoring trend took … [Read more...]

July 30, 2014

Global Market Comments July 30, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MY OLD PAL, LEONARDO FIBONACCI), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

My Old Pal, Leonardo Fibonacci

Fibonacci Sequence - Power Plant Chimney

I remember the 12th century like it was yesterday. In those days, the leading intellectuals used to get together and drink wine by the gallon, which then was really little more than rotten grape juice. The problem was that we all used to pass out before anybody came up with a great idea. Then someone started importing coffee from the Middle East and thinkers stayed awake … [Read more...]

July 29, 2014

Global Market Comments July 29, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TAKING PROFITS ON MY EURO SHORT), (FXE), (EUO), (HAVE CALM WATERS RETURNED FOR SHIPPING STOCKS?), ($BDI), (DRYS), (SEA), (GNK),  (RIO), (BHP), (KOL), (FXA), (EWA) (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) DryShips, Inc. (DRYS) Claymore/Delta … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on my Euro Short

Euro Symbol

The market marked our Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) August, 2014 $136-$138 in-the-money bear put spread at its maximum value of $2.00 last Wednesday. So I accepted the invitation to take profits and get out. For purposes of my P&L I’ll assume that it costs you two cents to execute, so I posted a selling price of $1.98. That should add 151 basis points to your 2014 … [Read more...]

Have Calm Waters Returned for Shipping Stocks?

Lutine Bell

The shipping stocks have had an OK year so far in 2014. The big question remains: “Is it real,” and “Is it sustainable?” This sector has been down for so long that most investors left it for dead a long time ago. All that was missing was the tolling of the Lutine Bell at the insurance exchange, Lloyds of London. Lured by the heroin of artificially cheap financing during … [Read more...]

July 28, 2014

Global Market Comments July 28, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL ITALY ISSUE Featured Trade: (JULY 30 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR FROM ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND), (WHAT TO DO ABOUT ITALY?), (EWI), (E), (TI), (LUX), (STM), (FIATY), (FXE) iShares MSCI Italy Capped (EWI) Eni SpA (E) Telecom Italia S.p.A. (TI) Luxottica Group SpA (LUX) STMicroelectronics NV (STM) Fiat S.p.A. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the July 30 Global Strategy Webinar Live From Zermatt, Switzerland

John Thomas

My next global strategy webinar will be held live from Zermatt, Switzerland on Wednesday, July 30 at 12:00 PM EDT. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take … [Read more...]

What to do About Italy?

John Thomas-Roman Colosseum

When British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, was informed that Italy joined the side of the Germans in the Second World War, he infamously replied, “Well, that’s only fair. They were our allies in the First World War.” Many investment strategists are similarly vexed today, trying to decide what to do about the home of the Roman Empire. Over the past 12 months, the Italy … [Read more...]

July 25, 2014

Global Market Comments July 25, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 30 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR FROM ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND), (A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED OPTIONS), (AN AFTERNOON WITH DR. PAUL EHRLICH), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB) Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT) The Mosaic Company (MOS) Agrium Inc. (AGU) Teucrium Corn ETF … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the July 30 Global Strategy Webinar Live From Zermatt, Switzerland

John Thomas

My next global strategy webinar will be held live from Zermatt, Switzerland on Wednesday, July 30 at 12:00 PM EDT. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take … [Read more...]

An Afternoon with Dr. Paul Ehrlich

India - Food

Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world’s food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. The never dull and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects that global warming … [Read more...]

July 24, 2014

Global Market Comments July 24, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JAPAN TO LAUNCH IRA’S), (DXJ), (FXY), (YCS), (KISS THAT UNION JOB GOODBYE) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) … [Read more...]

Japan to Launch IRA’s

Girl - Ticker

The Japanese government has introduced the Individual Retirement Account for individual investors in Japan for the first time. The move is part of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s multifaceted efforts to revive Japan’s economy, and could unleash as much as $690 billion in net buying into Japanese equities by 2018. The move was inspired American IRA’s, which were first introduced … [Read more...]

Kiss That Union Job Goodbye

Line Up - Queue

Those of you counting on getting your old union assembly line job back in Detroit can forget it. The eight year forecast published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 4.19 million jobs will be gained in the US in professional and business services, followed by 4 million health care and social assistance jobs, while 1.2 million will be lost in manufacturing. This … [Read more...]

July 23, 2014

Global Market CommentsJuly 23, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE SECOND AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION),(INDU), (SPY), (QQQ), (USO), (UNG), (GLD), (DBA),(TESTIMONIAL)   Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)United States Oil (USO)United States Natural Gas (UNG)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA)   … [Read more...]

July 22, 2014

Global Market Comments July 22, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL ISSUE ON TURKEY Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 24 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR), (HAS TURKEY SUFFERED ENOUGH?),  (TUR), (EEM) iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the July 24 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

matterhorn-Copy2-1

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Thursday, July 24, 2014. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light … [Read more...]

Has Turkey Suffered Enough?

John Thomas

I am writing this to you from the veranda of the presidential suite at the Ciragan Palace Hotel in Istanbul. The former palace of an Ottoman prince, the commerce of the Straights of Bosphorus plays out before me. Empty supertankers lumber up the narrow waterway to pick up another load of Russian crude at Baku, followed by full containerships loaded with consumer goods to pay … [Read more...]

July 21, 2014

Global Market Comments July 21, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CHECKING IN WITH SKYBRIDGE’S ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI) … [Read more...]

Checking in With SkyBridge’s Anthony Scaramucci

Anthony Scaramucci

“We are in a broad based liquidity driven bull market.” Furthermore, the major indexes are poised to tack on “another 10% by the end of this year.” That was the informed view of SkyBridge Capital managing partner Anthony Scaramucci, known as the “Mooch” to his friends. I touched based with Anthony while passing through New York a few weeks ago. Scaramucci’s Views are not … [Read more...]

July 18, 2014

Global Market Comments July 18, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SETS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 22.9% GAIN IN 2014), (AAPL), (CAT), (MSFT), (TLT), (GM), (SPY) (PLAY CHINA’S YUAN FROM THE LONG SIDE), (CYB), ($SSEC), (EEM) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) General Motors Company … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Sets New All Time High with 22.9% Gain in 2014

John Thomas

I am writing this to you from the island of Sardinia, part of Italy, a clump of arid mountains dropped right in the middle of the western Mediterranean. I am bobbing offshore from Porto Cuervo on the famed Costa Smeralda, or Emerald Coast, in a friend’s 100-foot sailboat, awaiting permission to enter. The water here is so clear that the boats appear to float on air. This … [Read more...]

Play China’s Yuan from the Long Side

Girl - Chinese

One of the oldest games in the foreign exchange market is to always buy the currencies of strong countries that are growing and to sell short the currencies of the weak countries that are shrinking. Any doubts that China’s Yuan is a huge screaming buy should have been dispelled when news came out that exports have once again started to surge, thanks to the recovery of its … [Read more...]

July 17, 2014

Global Market Comments July 17, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 24 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR) (ANNOUNCING THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER VIDEO CHANNEL ON YOUTUBE), (THE ULTRA BULL ARGUMENT FOR GOLD), (GLD), (GDX), (ABX), (SLV) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) … [Read more...]

July 24 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

matterhorn-Copy2-1

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Thursday, July 24, 2014. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light … [Read more...]

Announcing the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Video Channel on YouTube

John Thomas

One request I get more than any other, is to expand on my half century of international travel, provide a business, economic, and historical backdrop, and place it in today’s global context. Shake up such a cocktail of experience and knowledge, and more than a few trading and investment ideas spill over the top. If it’s funny, that helps too. It seems that I am one of a … [Read more...]