January 21, 2014

Global Market Comments January 21, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FEBRUARY 12 AUCKLAND NEW ZEALND STRATEGY LUNCH), (HOW OBAMACARE WILL BOOST YOUR PORTFOLIO), (XLV), (GILD), (XLS), (XPH), (XBI), (GOOG) Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) Exelis Inc. (XLS) SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH) SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) Google Inc. … [Read more...]

Wednesday, February 12 Auckland, New Zealand Strategy Lunch

Auckland

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Auckland, New Zealand on Wednesday, February 12, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

How Obamacare Will Boost Your Portfolio

Obama

Still basking in the glow of 2013’s spectacular 26% gain in the Dow, I sat down on a rock on a high mountain the other day to try and figure out what happened. The last time I saw a move this healthy was back in the nineties, when a perfect trifecta of the internet going mainstream, cheap graphical user interface enabled personal computers, and an easy to use World Wide Web … [Read more...]

January 17, 2014

Global Market Comments January 17, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SURGES AHEAD WITH A 5.78% 2014 PROFIT), (SPY), (TLT), (XLK), (XLF), (XLE), (AAPL), (SFTBY), (FXY), (AT&T IS DILAING A WRONG NUMBER), (T), (VZ), (NFLX), (AMZN) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) Financial Select … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Surges Ahead With a 5.73% January Profit

Trade Alert Performance

The red hot performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service has maintained its blistering pace from last year, picking up another 5.73% profit in the first two trading weeks of 2014. The S&P 500 was down during the same period. Since the beginning of 2013, I am up 73.23%. 2013 closed with a total return for followers of 67.45%. Including both open and … [Read more...]

AT&T (T) is Dialing a Wrong Number

Lily Tomlin

AT&T (T), or Telephone as we used to call it on the floor on the New York Stock Exchange when we hand traded its shares, enjoyed a nice little 50-cent pop yesterday, to $34, only the second day it managed to rise this year. The move comes after a federal appeals court in Washington DC ruled that the FCC exceeded its authority when it told Verizon Communication (VZ) that … [Read more...]

January 16, 2014

Global Market Comments January 16, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CASHING IN ON APPLE), (AAPL) (BECOME MY FACEBOOK FRIEND), (OIL ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE), (USO), (DIG), (DUG) United States Oil (USO) ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG) ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG) … [Read more...]

Cashing In on Apple

apple-1

Apple (AAPL) has delivered again, choosing the expiration week of my January, 2014 $490-$520 bull call spread to take forward their gigantic joint venture with China Mobile (CHL), far and away the world’s largest phone company. Expect to see video of long lines forming at Apple stores throughout china. This is always good for the share price. This assures that the spread … [Read more...]

January 15, 2014

Global Market Comments January 15, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (INVESTORS WILL WIN THE ETF PRICE WAR), (BIDDING FOR THE STARS), (SPX), (INDU), (THE DEATH OF THE MUTUAL FUND), (TESTIMONIAL) S&P 500 Index (SPX) Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (INDU) … [Read more...]

Investors Will Win the ETF Price War

Hannibal Lecter

Many hedge fund traders are unhappy about the current near monopoly enjoyed by the top three ETF issuers, Black Rock, State Street, and Vanguard, which control 80% of the market. At last count there were more than 4,800 ETF’s that were capitalized at $2.1 trillion. The result has been grasping management fees, exorbitant expense ratios, and poor structural designs, which … [Read more...]

The Death of the Mutual Fund

Downsizing poster

ETF’s are much more attractive than mutual fund competitors, with their notoriously bloated expenses and spendthrift marketing costs. You can’t miss those glitzy, overproduced, big budget ads on TV for a multitude of mutual fund families. You know, the ones with the senior couple holding hands walking down the beach into the sunset, the raging bulls, etc.? You are the sucker … [Read more...]

January 14, 2014

Global Market Comments January 14, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 MELBOURNE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (WHY I’M KEEPING MY BOND SHORTS), (TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD), (JNK), (HYG), (LINE), (ITB), (TESTIMONIAL) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB) iShares iBoxx $ … [Read more...]

Thursday, February 20 Melbourne, Australia Lunch Invitation

Melbourne, AU

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Melbourne, Australia on Thursday, February 20, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

Why I’m Keeping My Bond Shorts

Shorts on Clothes line

The Department of Labor took the punch bowl away from the party on Friday, reporting that the December nonfarm payroll came in at an anemic 74,000. Analyst forecasts had been running in the 200,000-250,000 range. What was even more interesting was that the labor participation rate dropped to a 1978 low, with nearly 400,000 workers disappearing from the rolls. This is what … [Read more...]

January 13, 2013

Global Market Comments January 13, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22 BRISBANE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (AMERCIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC COLLAPSE AND YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIO) … [Read more...]

Saturday February 22 Brisbane Australia Strategy Lunch

Brisbane, AU

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Brisbane, Australia on Saturday, February 22, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and a question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I also … [Read more...]

Friday, February 14 Sydney, Australia Lunch invitation

Sydney, AU

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Sydney, Australia on Friday, February 14, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and a minute question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

A Special Note on Exercised January Options

There are only 5 trading days left until the equity option expiration on January 17. My short dated January expiration play turned out to be wildly successful, with all of these positions quickly turning profitable. During the two-week December holidays when markets fell asleep, time decay assured that we made money almost every day, and closed us on the year at an all time … [Read more...]

January 9, 2014

Global Market Comments January 9, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FEBRUARY 12 AUCKLAND NEW ZEALND STRATEGY LUNCH), (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CLOSES 2013 WITH 67.45% PROFIT), (AAPL), (XLE), (XLF), (FXY), (TLT), (SFTBY), (GILD) (TESTIMONIAL) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) iShares … [Read more...]

Wednesday, February 12 Auckland, New Zealand Strategy Lunch

Auckland

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Auckland, New Zealand on Wednesday, February 12, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Closes 2013 With 67.45% Profit

TA Performance

The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service finished 2013 with a total return for followers of 67.45%. Including both open and closed trades, 75 out of the 90 Trade Alerts were profitable, a success rate of 83%. The final month of December alone came in at an eye popping 11.45%. The three-year return is an eye popping 122.5%, compared to a far more … [Read more...]

January 8, 2014

Global Market Comments January 8, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TEN TIPS FOR SURVIVING A DAY OFF WITH ME), (TESTIMONIAL), (US HEADED TOWARDS ENERGY INDEPENDENCE), (USO), (UNG), (KOL), (XOM), (OXY) United States Oil (USO) United States Natural Gas (UNG) Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) … [Read more...]

US Headed Towards Energy Independence

US-Canada Border Map

My inbox was clogged with responses to my “Golden Age” for the 2020’s piece, particularly my forecast that the US was moving towards complete energy independence. This will be the most important change to the global economy for the next 20 years. So I shall go into more depth. The energy research house, Raymond James, put out an estimate this morning that domestic American … [Read more...]

January 7, 2014

Global Market Comments January 7, 2014 Fiat Lux 2014 Annual Asset Class Review FOR PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Featured Trades: (SPX), (QQQ), (XLF), (XLE), (XLI), (XLY), (EEM), (TLT), (TBT), (JNK), (PHB), (HYG), (PCY), (MUB), (HCP) (FXE), (EUO), (FXC), (FXA), (YCS), (FXY), (CYB) (FCX), (VALE), (MOO), (DBA), (MOS), (MON), (AGU), (POT), (PHO), (FIW), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), … [Read more...]

2014 Annual Asset Class Review

JT at work

I am writing this report from a first class sleeping cabin on Amtrak’s California Zephyr. We are now pulling away from Chicago’s Union Station, leaving its hurried commuters, buskers, panhandlers, and majestic great halls behind. I am headed for Emeryville, California, just across the bay from San Francisco. That gives me only 56 hours to complete this report. I tip my porter, … [Read more...]

My 20 Rules for Trading

Caveman

Nothing like starting the New Year with going back to basics and reviewing the rules that worked so well for us in 2013. Call this the refresher course for Trading 101. I usually try to catch three or four trend changes a year, which might generate 50-100 trades, and often come in frenzied bursts. Since I am one of the greatest tightwads that every walked the planet, I … [Read more...]

Report from the Matterhorn Summit

John Thomas-Matterhorn

From where I stand, the rolling foothills of Northern Italy spread out below me to the south. On my left lie the distinctive peaks of the Dolomite Alps. On my right I can see the massive expanse of Mont Blanc, at 15,781 feet the highest mountain in Europe. I am standing at the summit of the Matterhorn. Knock another item off the bucket list. I have been trying to climb this … [Read more...]

January 2, 2014

Global Market Comments January 2, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AN EVENING WITH GENERAL DOUGLAS FRASER), (EWZ), (ECH), (GXG), (CU), (CORN), (SOYB), (WEAT), (A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON) iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ) iShares MSCI Chile Capped (ECH) Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (GXG) First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat … [Read more...]

An Evening with General Douglas Fraser

Douglas Fraser- Gen.

I never cease to be amazed by the intelligence provided me by the US Defense Department, which after the CIA, has the world’s most impressive and insightful economic research team. There are few places a global strategist like me can go to get intelligent, thoughtful forty-year views, and this is one. Wall Street, eat your heart out. Of course, they are planning how to … [Read more...]

A Cow based Economics Lesson:

Cow

SOCIALISM -You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor. COMMUNISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk. FASCISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk. NAZISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you. BUREAUCRATISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws … [Read more...]

December 31, 2013

Global Market Comments December 31, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE LONG VIEW ON EMERGING MARKETS), (HOW TO AVOID THE PONZI SCHEME TRAP), (MURRAY SAYLE: THE PASSING OF A GIANT IN JOURNALISM), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

How to Avoid the Ponzi Scheme Trap

Bernie Madoff

I spent a sad and depressing, but highly instructional evening with Dr. Stephen Greenspan, who had lost most of his personal fortune with Bernie Madoff. The University of Connecticut psychology professor had poured the bulk of his savings into Sandra Mansky's Tremont feeder fund; receiving convincing trade confirms and rock solid custody statements from the Bank of New … [Read more...]

Be Careful Who You Snitch On

Sherron Watkins

Buried in the recently passed Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are massive financial rewards for turning in your crooked boss. The SEC is hoping that multimillion dollar rewards amounting to 10%-30% of sanction amounts will drive a stampede of whistleblowers to their doors with evidence of malfeasance and fraud by their employers. If such rules were in place at the time of … [Read more...]

December 26, 2013

Global Market Comments December 26, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (INDIA IS CATCHING UP WITH CHINA), (PIN), (FXI), (WHO SAYS HEDGE FUNDS AREN’T ADDING VALUE?) (PETER F. DRUCKER ON MANAGEMENT) PowerShares India (PIN) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) … [Read more...]

India is Catching Up With China

Rickshaw

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 36 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate. My friends at the International Monetary … [Read more...]

Who Says Hedge Funds Aren’t Adding Value?

Topiary

According to my old friend, Rick Sopher, chairman of LCH Investments in London, the top ten hedge funds have earned $153 billion for their investors since inception. Rick, who runs his business from an elegant flat on posh Eaton Square, compiled the list after a comprehensive survey of the still operating 7,000 hedge funds worldwide. It is dominated by marquee names like … [Read more...]

A Christmas Story

John Thomas with Santa

When I was growing up in Los Angles during the fifties, the most exciting day of the year was when my dad took me to buy a Christmas tree. With its semi desert climate, Southern California offered pine trees that were scraggly at best, and we didn’t want to chop down the view that we had. So the Southern Pacific Railroad made a big deal out of bringing trees down from much … [Read more...]

My Favorite Secret Economic Indicator

lava lamps

It is the end of the school year at the University of California at Berkeley, and the unenviable task of moving my son, a senior, out of his hovel for the holidays fell to me. When I arrived, I was stunned to find nothing less than a war zone. Both sides of every street were lined with mountains of trash, the unwanted flotsam and jetsam cast aside by departing students. … [Read more...]

December 23, 2013

Global Market Comments December 23, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE ONE BRIGHT SPOT IN REAL ESTATE), (A SHORT HISTORY OF HEDGE FUNDS), (THE POPULATION BOMB ECHOES), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (THANK GOODNESS I DON’T LIVE IN SWEDEN), (EWD) Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT) The Mosaic Company (MOS) Agrium Inc. (AGU) iShares MSCI Sweden (EWD) … [Read more...]

The One Bright Spot in Real Estate

US Population 2010-2050

I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this bubbling market that might actually make sense. By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and the US from 300 million to 400 million, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and the CIA fact Book (check out the population pyramid below). That means enormous demand for the low end of … [Read more...]

A Thank You from The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

John Thomas with Santa

You are in safe hands now, with your trading portfolios up 63% on the year, if you had followed every one of my Trade Alerts to the letter. So I am calling it quits for the year. By the time you read this, I will be well on my way to my beachfront estate at Incline Village on the pristine shores of Lake Tahoe, the car packed with Christmas presents, ski equipment, snowshoes, … [Read more...]

A Special Note on Exercised Options

We are now deep in the money on most of our options positions.  The Mad Hedge so, it is important that we tread carefully from here to get the full benefit. I received a few emails from readers whose call option holdings have already been exercised against them, and have asked me for advice on how best to proceed. So, here we go. The options traded on US exchanges and … [Read more...]

December 19, 2013

Global Market Comments December 19, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER PROFIT HITS 63%), (SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (XLF), (I WAS WRONG….BUT IT DIDN’T MATTER) (A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE US) (THE STRUCTURAL BEAR CASE FOR TREASURY BONDS), (TLT), (TBT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Profit Hits 63%

TA Performance

The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service is still going ballistic, reaching the heady height of 63.08% for the year. Including both open and closed trades, 24 out of the last 26 consecutive Trade Alerts have been profitable. The results so far in December are up a stunning +7.04. The three-year return is an eye popping 118%, compared to a far more … [Read more...]

I was Wrong…But it Didn’t Matter

Money Printing

Ben Bernanke finally did the deed. He tapered his quantitative easing program, from $85 to $75 billion a month. I thought he would wait until next month for incoming Fed governor Janet Yellen to take the helm, and the responsibility. It was not to be. The good news for followers of my Trade Alert Service was that it didn’t matter. $85 or $75 billion is really six of one and … [Read more...]

December 18, 2013

Global Market Comments December 18, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RECEPTION THAT THE STARS FELL UPON), (NLR), (CCJ), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (OIL ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE), (USO), (TAKING A BITE OUT OF STEALTH INFLATION), (SGG), (WEAT) Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat … [Read more...]

Oil Isn’t What It Used to Be

Horse Drawn Car

Virtually every analyst has been puzzled by the seeming immunity of stock markets to high oil prices this year. In fact, stocks and crude have been tracking almost one to one on the upside. The charts below a friend at JP Morgan sent me go a long way towards explaining this apparent dichotomy. The first shows the number of barrels of oil needed to generate a unit of GDP, … [Read more...]

December 17, 2013

Global Market Comments December 17, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RISING DRUMBEAT FOR ALIBABA), (SFTBY), (S), (TMUS), (T), (RAMPANT WAGE INFLATION STRIKES CHINA), (FXI) (CHECK OUT OBAMA’S LATEST STIMULUS PLAN), (TESTIMONIAL) SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY) Sprint Corporation (S) T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) AT&T, Inc. (T) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) … [Read more...]

The Rising Drumbeat for Alibaba

Jack Ma Alibaba

Rumors hit the market Friday that Sprint (S) will mount a $20 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile (TMUS) in early January. The news caused a late day kerfluffle on what would otherwise have been a slow December pre holiday Friday. The Shares of both companies immediately jumped 10%, which left many analysts scratching their heads. Normally, the shares of the acquirer falls … [Read more...]

Rampant Wage Inflation Strikes China

Chinese Men

I rely on hundreds of 'moles' around the world whose job it is to watch a single, but important indicator for the world economy. One of them checks for me the want ads in the manufacturing mega city of Shenzhen, China, and what he told me last week was alarming. Wage demands by Chinese workers have been skyrocketing this year. The biggest increases have been at the low end … [Read more...]

Check Out Obama’s Latest Stimulus Package

Obama-1

Was there is no limit to how far President Obama was willing to go to stimulate the economy and reassure his election? So I had to be amused when a friend sent me a link to his proposal. Warning: the source is a college humor website, so I would take it with so many grains of salt. For a good laugh, click here at … [Read more...]

Report from the Frozen Wastelands of the West

Sierras

I am writing this from a High Sierra peak at 12,000 feet in the dead of winter. It is 15 degrees and the wind is gusting at 70 miles an hour, turning by backpack into a sail and practically blowing me off the mountain. Over the side, the next stop is 1,000 feet below. I am thirsty, but the water in my canteen is frozen solid. I had planned to follow my tracks in the snow … [Read more...]

December 13, 2013

Global Market Comments December 13, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DECEMBER 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (MY MARKET TAKE FOR THE REST OF 2013), (DOUBLING UP ON SOFTBANK), (SFTBY) (SPY), (XLF), (TLT), (FXY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (TESTIMONIAL) SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the December 18 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, December 18 at 12:00 PM EST. This is the last webinar of 2013! I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to … [Read more...]

My Market Take for the Rest of 2014

Zephyr

I can’t believe how fast the year has gone by. It seems like only yesterday that I was riding the transcontinental railroad from Chicago to San Francisco, writing my 2013 All Asset Class Review. Now 2014 is at our doorstep. As usual, the market has got it all wrong. There is not going to be a taper by the Federal Reserve next week. If there is, it will be only $5-$10 … [Read more...]

Doubling Up on Softbank

Masayoshi Son

I have always been a big fan of buying a dollar for 30 cents. That appears to be the opportunity now presented by the Japanese software giant, Softbank (SFTBY). This gorilla of the Internet space was founded and run by my old friend, Masayoshi Son, who many refer to as a combination of the Jeff Bezos and the Bill Gates of Japan. I have known Mas, as his friends call him, for … [Read more...]

December 12, 2013

Global Market Comments December 12, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (IS THIS THE BIG TRADE OF 2014?), (GLD), (SLV), ($SSEC), (EEM), (FXI), (JJC), (DBA), (CORN), (CU), (USO), (KOL), (A CHRISTMAS DONATION FOR THE WORTHIEST OF CAUSES) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ($SSEC) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets … [Read more...]

A Christmas Donation for the Worthiest of Causes

I follow a broad range of unconventional, but highly useful leading economic indicators that gives me a decisive edge when predicting the future direction of global financial markets. One of them has started flashing a warning sign. I fund an orphanage in remote Zhanjiang, in China’s southern Guangdong province, near Hainan Island called The Zhanjiang Kids Organization that … [Read more...]

December 11, 2013

Global Market Comments December 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY), (SAY GOODBYE TO YOUR FAVORITE TEACHER), (RAILROADS ARE BREAKING OUT ALL OVER), (UNP), (CSX), (NSC), (CP), (ACI) Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) CSX Corp. (CSX) Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP) Arch Coal Inc. (ACI) … [Read more...]

The Bipolar Economy

Caveat Emptor

Corporate earnings are up big! Great! Buy! No wait! The economy is going down the toilet! Sell! Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Help! Anyone would be forgiven for thinking that the stock market has become bipolar. There is, in fact, an explanation for this madness. According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the answer is that corporate profits accounts for … [Read more...]

Say Goodbye to Your Favorite Teacher

Teacher

Don’t bother taking an apple to school to give your favorite teacher, unless you want to leave it in front of a machine. The schoolteacher is about to join the sorry ranks of the service station attendant, the elevator operator, and the telephone operators whose professions have been rendered useless by technology. The next big social trend in this country will be to replace … [Read more...]

December 10, 2013

Global Market Comments December 10, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (GOTTA LOVE THAT NOVEMBER NONFARM PAYROLL), (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER PROFIT SPURTS TO 59%), (SPY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (TLT), (FXY) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY) Apple Inc. (AAPL) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) … [Read more...]

Gotta Love That November Nonfarm Payroll

Ben Bernanke - Cartoon

The November nonfarm payroll blew out to the upside once again, with 203,000 souls landing jobs for the month. Previous months were substantially revised up. The headline unemployment rate made a whopping great fall from 7.3% to 7.0%, the sharpest drop in years. The much feared collapse in the jobs market triggered by the October Washington shut down was dead on arrival. … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Profit Spurts to 59%

TA Performance

The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service is still going ballistic, reaching the heady height of 59% for the year. I know some of your saw your faith challenged when, at one point, the stock market was looking at five consecutive down days last week. The red ink all disappeared when the November nonfarm payroll delivered shockingly positive numbers, … [Read more...]

December 9, 2013

Global Market Comments December 9, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LESSONS FROM THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR), (FXA), (EWA), (HANGING OUT WITH THE WOZ), (AAPL), (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) iShares MSCI Australia (EWA) Apple Inc. (AAPL) … [Read more...]

Lessons from the Australian dollar

Kangaroo - Car

Last month, I shot out a Trade Alert to buy the Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) December, 2013 $89-$91 bull call spread that turned immediately profitable. A mere four trading days later I sold out, after the (FXA) rallied an impressive $1.2, adding 0.84% to the value of my model trading portfolio. That turned out to be the absolute top of the move. This is not … [Read more...]

December 6, 2013

Global Market Comments December 6, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE BOND CRASH HAS ONLY JUST STARTED), ($TNX), (TLT), (TBT), (INDIA VS CHINA), (FXI), (PIN), (INP), (TTM) 10-Year Treasury Note ($TNX) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) PowerShares India (PIN) iPath MSCI India Index … [Read more...]

India is Catching Up With China

Rickshaw

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 36 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate. My friends at the International Monetary Fund … [Read more...]

December 5, 2013

Global Market Comments December 5, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE POPULATION BOOM), (WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL), (CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR), (WHO EXPENSIVE OIL HURTS THE MOST), (USO), (TESTIMONIAL) Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index (CGW) PowerShares Water Resources (PHO) First Trust ISE Water Idx (FIW) Veolia Environnement S.A. … [Read more...]

The Population Boom

Traffic

In their century long coverage of exotic places, cultures, and practices, National Geographic Magazine inadvertently sheds light on broad global trends that deeply affect the rest of us. Plus, the pictures are great. A recent issue celebrated the approach of the world's population to 7 billion, and the implications therein. Long time readers of this letter know that … [Read more...]

Why Water Will Soon Become More Valuable Than Oil

Water Fall

If you think that an energy shortage is bad, it will pale in comparison to the next water crisis. So investment in fresh water infrastructure is going to be a great recurring long-term investment theme. One theory about the endless wars in the Middle East since 1918 is that they have really been over water rights. Although Earth is often referred to as the water planet, only … [Read more...]

Who Expensive Oil Hurts the Most

Before-After

Every time the price of oil spikes, we learn vast amounts of information about the global reach of this indispensable commodity. It's like taking a non-core elective in geology at college. So I was fascinated when I found the chart of relative sector winners and losers below. No surprise that energy does best from sky-high crude prices. It is followed by telecommunications … [Read more...]

The Markets and President Hillary

Hillary Clinton

Yes, I know that the presidential election of 2016 is three years off. But if you already know the outcome of that contest you can use it to your advantage trading the markets today. You don’t want to get caught out like many conservatives did in 2012, who were forced to dump stock in a hurry to beat a surprise jump in capital gains taxes after an unexpected Obama win, … [Read more...]

December 3, 2013

Global Market Comments December 3, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THAT OTHER “GREAT REALLOCATION” OUT OF THE YEN), (FXY), (YCS), ($NIKK), (DXJ), (TLT), (BUY FLOOD INSRANCE WITH THE VIX), (VIX), (VXX), (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) Tokyo Nikkei Average Indx ($NIKK) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) iShares 20+ … [Read more...]

That Other “Great Reallocation” Out of the Yen

Woman - Hari Kari

The big talk in the financial markets this year was of the “Great Reallocation” out of bonds and into stocks.” The problem is that it was just that: talk. While redemptions of retail bond mutual funds have topped $147 billion since June, the big money has yet to move in size. However, there is a great reallocation that is already well under way. In fact, it already completed … [Read more...]

Buy Flood Insurance With the VIX

Man-Pogo Stick

I am one of those cheapskates who buys Christmas ornaments by the bucket load from Costco in January for ten cents on the dollar because my eleven month return on capital comes close to 1,000%. I also like buying flood insurance in the middle of the summer when the forecast here in California is for endless days of sunshine. That is what we are facing now with the volatility … [Read more...]

December 2, 2013

Global Market Comments December 2, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD DAY TRADER BRINGS IN 292% RETURN IN 2013), (GOOG), (IBM), (SOYB), (AAPL), (TLT),  (TBT), (FXY), (YCS), (FXE), (EUO), (BEWARE THE COMING EQUITY FAMINE), (TESTIMONIAL) Google Inc. (GOOG) International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Teucrium Soybean (SOYB) Apple Inc. (AAPL) iShares 20+ Year … [Read more...]

Mad Day Trader Brings in 292% Return in 2013

Jim Parker

When Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker, told me he was up 292% over the past seven months, I didn’t believe him. The value of a nominal $1,000 investment would have to have increased to $3,124. “It’s too good to be true,” I thought. Nobody will believe it. Even my own customer support people said it was a crazy number. But after carefully analyzing Jim’s trade history, I saw … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss Jon Najarian and John Thomas at the December 4 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, December 4 at 3:30 PM EST, which is NOT THE USUAL TIME! Co hosting the show will be my buddy, Trademonster’s Jon Najarian, and we will together be looking into the trading opportunities looming fast in 2014. Don’t miss a chance to probe the two of the greatest trading minds on Wall Street! Register early to get a … [Read more...]

Surviving Thanksgiving

Norman Rockwell Thanksgiving

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is taking a much-needed break for the next few days to take Turkey with the expanded family in Portland, Oregon. The Trade Alerts have been going out so fast and furious that it is all starting to become a blur to me. I am going to draw the line at 70 alerts for November. A 28-pound bird made the ultimate sacrifice, and will be accompanied with … [Read more...]

November 27, 2013

Global Market Comments November 27, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DEMOGRAPHICS AS DESTINY), (SPY), (EWJ), (EWL), (EWU), (EWG), (EWY), (FXI), (EIRL), (GREK), (EWP), (RSX), (IDX), (EPOL), (TUR), (EWZ), (PIN), (EIS), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ) iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped Index (EWL) iShares MSCI United Kingdom (EWU) iShareiShares … [Read more...]

November 26, 2013

Global Market Comments November 26, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HERE COMES THE NEXT PEACE DIVIDEND), (SPY), (XLI), (XLF), (XLK), (C), (UUP), (USO), (TAKING PROFITS ON THE YEN….AGAIN!), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) Citigroup, Inc. … [Read more...]

Here Comes the Next Peace Dividend

Iran Nuclear Missile

I was amazed to see the Dow Average open up only 60 points this morning, and oil to fall a mere $1.50, given the enormous long term implications of a real nuclear deal with Iran. Over the decades, I have noticed that Wall Street isn’t very good at analyzing international political matters and the implications for their own markets. This appears to be one of those cases. The … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on the Yen….Again!

Woman - Hari Kari

This is my 14th consecutive closing Trade Alert, and the 20th including my remaining profitable open positions. I have only six more to go until a break my previous record of 25. It doesn’t get any better than this. The yen is now in free fall, and the Japanese stock market is going ballistic, as I expected. Both the ProShares Ultra Short Yen double short ETF (YCS) and the … [Read more...]

November 25, 2013

Global Market Comments November 25, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HURTLES TO 58%) (C), (XLF), (XLI), (FXY), (FXA), (TLT), (TBT), (TIME TO SOAK UP SOME SOFTBANK), (SFTBY), (AMZN), (ORCL), (GOOG), (EBAY), (TWTR) Citigroup, Inc. (C) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hurtles to 58%

C 11-22-13

The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service is still going ballistic, falling just short of a 60% gain for the year last week. Every new subscriber since September has seen 100% of their trades turn profitable. This is your classic “shooting fish in a barrel” market. I know guys my age aren’t supposed to be packing in 16-hour workdays. But it’s all … [Read more...]

Time to Soak Up Some Softbank

Masayoshi Son

I have always been a big fan of buying a dollar for 30 cents. That appears to be the opportunity now presented by the Japanese software giant, Softbank (SFTBY). This gorilla of the Internet space was founded and run by my old friend, Masayoshi Son, who many refer to as a combination of the Jeff Bezos and the Bill Gates of Japan. I have known Mas, as his friends call him, for … [Read more...]

November 22, 2013

Global Market Comments November 22, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TAKING PROFITS ON CITIGROUP), (C), (XLF), (WFC), (MS), (GS), (JPM), (WATCH OUT FOR THE JOBS TRAP), (FDX), (UPS), (WATCH THOSE MONETARY AGGREGATES) Citigroup, Inc. (C) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) Morgan Stanley (MS) The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) JPMorgan … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on Citigroup

Citibank

I have discovered a correlation in the market that you can use for the rest of this year, for all of 2014, and probably for the next 20 years. Whenever the Treasury bond market (TLT) takes a dive, bank shares rocket. This is a particularly happy discovery, as my model-trading portfolio is long bank shares and short the Treasury bond market. By buying bank shares here you are … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Jobs Trap

Cargo Plane

We are about to get some wild, seasonal gyrations to the jobs numbers, and I think you will be well advised to know about them in advance. A large part of our economy is moving online more rapidly than most people and governments realize. According to ComScore, a marketing data research firm, online sales leapt by 15% to $35.3 billion during the last November-December … [Read more...]

Watch Those Monetary Aggregates!

Football Team-CA Junior Varsity-1947

Call me a nerd, but instead of spending my Sundays watching football, I pour over data analyzing the monetary aggregates. That’s a tough thing to say for someone whose dad was a lineman on the University of Southern California’s legendary 1947 junior varsity football team. This is so I can gain insights into the future performance of assets classes. What I am seeing these … [Read more...]