December 31, 2013

Global Market Comments December 31, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE LONG VIEW ON EMERGING MARKETS), (HOW TO AVOID THE PONZI SCHEME TRAP), (MURRAY SAYLE: THE PASSING OF A GIANT IN JOURNALISM), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

How to Avoid the Ponzi Scheme Trap

Bernie Madoff

I spent a sad and depressing, but highly instructional evening with Dr. Stephen Greenspan, who had lost most of his personal fortune with Bernie Madoff. The University of Connecticut psychology professor had poured the bulk of his savings into Sandra Mansky's Tremont feeder fund; receiving convincing trade confirms and rock solid custody statements from the Bank of New … [Read more...]

December 30, 2013

Global Market Comments December 30, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trades: (BE CAREFUL WHO YOU SNITCH ON), (A CONVERSATION WITH THE BOOTS ON THE GROUND), (DINNER WITH JOSEPH STIGLITZ) … [Read more...]

Be Careful Who You Snitch On

Sherron Watkins

Buried in the recently passed Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are massive financial rewards for turning in your crooked boss. The SEC is hoping that multimillion dollar rewards amounting to 10%-30% of sanction amounts will drive a stampede of whistleblowers to their doors with evidence of malfeasance and fraud by their employers. If such rules were in place at the time of … [Read more...]

December 26, 2013

Global Market Comments December 26, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (INDIA IS CATCHING UP WITH CHINA), (PIN), (FXI), (WHO SAYS HEDGE FUNDS AREN’T ADDING VALUE?) (PETER F. DRUCKER ON MANAGEMENT) PowerShares India (PIN) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) … [Read more...]

India is Catching Up With China

Rickshaw

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 36 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate. My friends at the International Monetary … [Read more...]

Who Says Hedge Funds Aren’t Adding Value?

Topiary

According to my old friend, Rick Sopher, chairman of LCH Investments in London, the top ten hedge funds have earned $153 billion for their investors since inception. Rick, who runs his business from an elegant flat on posh Eaton Square, compiled the list after a comprehensive survey of the still operating 7,000 hedge funds worldwide. It is dominated by marquee names like … [Read more...]

December 24, 2013

Global Market Comments December 24, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trades: (A CHRISTMAS STORY), (THE U-HAUL INDICATOR)     … [Read more...]

A Christmas Story

John Thomas with Santa

When I was growing up in Los Angles during the fifties, the most exciting day of the year was when my dad took me to buy a Christmas tree. With its semi desert climate, Southern California offered pine trees that were scraggly at best, and we didn’t want to chop down the view that we had. So the Southern Pacific Railroad made a big deal out of bringing trees down from much … [Read more...]

My Favorite Secret Economic Indicator

lava lamps

It is the end of the school year at the University of California at Berkeley, and the unenviable task of moving my son, a senior, out of his hovel for the holidays fell to me. When I arrived, I was stunned to find nothing less than a war zone. Both sides of every street were lined with mountains of trash, the unwanted flotsam and jetsam cast aside by departing students. … [Read more...]

December 23, 2013

Global Market Comments December 23, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE ONE BRIGHT SPOT IN REAL ESTATE), (A SHORT HISTORY OF HEDGE FUNDS), (THE POPULATION BOMB ECHOES), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (THANK GOODNESS I DON’T LIVE IN SWEDEN), (EWD) Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT) The Mosaic Company (MOS) Agrium Inc. (AGU) iShares MSCI Sweden (EWD) … [Read more...]

The One Bright Spot in Real Estate

US Population 2010-2050

I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this bubbling market that might actually make sense. By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and the US from 300 million to 400 million, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and the CIA fact Book (check out the population pyramid below). That means enormous demand for the low end of … [Read more...]

December 20, 2013

Global Market Comments December 20, 2013 Fiat Lux SPECIAL END OF YEAR ISSUE Featured Trades: (GO LONG CHRISTMAS CHEER AND HOT BUTTERED RUM), (A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED OPTIONS) … [Read more...]

A Thank You from The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

John Thomas with Santa

You are in safe hands now, with your trading portfolios up 63% on the year, if you had followed every one of my Trade Alerts to the letter. So I am calling it quits for the year. By the time you read this, I will be well on my way to my beachfront estate at Incline Village on the pristine shores of Lake Tahoe, the car packed with Christmas presents, ski equipment, snowshoes, … [Read more...]

A Special Note on Exercised Options

We are now deep in the money on most of our options positions.  The Mad Hedge so, it is important that we tread carefully from here to get the full benefit. I received a few emails from readers whose call option holdings have already been exercised against them, and have asked me for advice on how best to proceed. So, here we go. The options traded on US exchanges and … [Read more...]

December 19, 2013

Global Market Comments December 19, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER PROFIT HITS 63%), (SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (XLF), (I WAS WRONG….BUT IT DIDN’T MATTER) (A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE US) (THE STRUCTURAL BEAR CASE FOR TREASURY BONDS), (TLT), (TBT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Profit Hits 63%

TA Performance

The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service is still going ballistic, reaching the heady height of 63.08% for the year. Including both open and closed trades, 24 out of the last 26 consecutive Trade Alerts have been profitable. The results so far in December are up a stunning +7.04. The three-year return is an eye popping 118%, compared to a far more … [Read more...]

I was Wrong…But it Didn’t Matter

Money Printing

Ben Bernanke finally did the deed. He tapered his quantitative easing program, from $85 to $75 billion a month. I thought he would wait until next month for incoming Fed governor Janet Yellen to take the helm, and the responsibility. It was not to be. The good news for followers of my Trade Alert Service was that it didn’t matter. $85 or $75 billion is really six of one and … [Read more...]

December 18, 2013

Global Market Comments December 18, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RECEPTION THAT THE STARS FELL UPON), (NLR), (CCJ), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (OIL ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE), (USO), (TAKING A BITE OUT OF STEALTH INFLATION), (SGG), (WEAT) Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat … [Read more...]

Oil Isn’t What It Used to Be

Horse Drawn Car

Virtually every analyst has been puzzled by the seeming immunity of stock markets to high oil prices this year. In fact, stocks and crude have been tracking almost one to one on the upside. The charts below a friend at JP Morgan sent me go a long way towards explaining this apparent dichotomy. The first shows the number of barrels of oil needed to generate a unit of GDP, … [Read more...]

December 17, 2013

Global Market Comments December 17, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RISING DRUMBEAT FOR ALIBABA), (SFTBY), (S), (TMUS), (T), (RAMPANT WAGE INFLATION STRIKES CHINA), (FXI) (CHECK OUT OBAMA’S LATEST STIMULUS PLAN), (TESTIMONIAL) SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY) Sprint Corporation (S) T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) AT&T, Inc. (T) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) … [Read more...]

The Rising Drumbeat for Alibaba

Jack Ma Alibaba

Rumors hit the market Friday that Sprint (S) will mount a $20 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile (TMUS) in early January. The news caused a late day kerfluffle on what would otherwise have been a slow December pre holiday Friday. The Shares of both companies immediately jumped 10%, which left many analysts scratching their heads. Normally, the shares of the acquirer falls … [Read more...]

Rampant Wage Inflation Strikes China

Chinese Men

I rely on hundreds of 'moles' around the world whose job it is to watch a single, but important indicator for the world economy. One of them checks for me the want ads in the manufacturing mega city of Shenzhen, China, and what he told me last week was alarming. Wage demands by Chinese workers have been skyrocketing this year. The biggest increases have been at the low end … [Read more...]

Check Out Obama’s Latest Stimulus Package

Obama-1

Was there is no limit to how far President Obama was willing to go to stimulate the economy and reassure his election? So I had to be amused when a friend sent me a link to his proposal. Warning: the source is a college humor website, so I would take it with so many grains of salt. For a good laugh, click here at … [Read more...]

December 16, 2013

Global Market Comments December 16, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (REPORT FROM THE FROZEN WASTELANDS OF THE WEST) … [Read more...]

Report from the Frozen Wastelands of the West

Sierras

I am writing this from a High Sierra peak at 12,000 feet in the dead of winter. It is 15 degrees and the wind is gusting at 70 miles an hour, turning by backpack into a sail and practically blowing me off the mountain. Over the side, the next stop is 1,000 feet below. I am thirsty, but the water in my canteen is frozen solid. I had planned to follow my tracks in the snow … [Read more...]

December 13, 2013

Global Market Comments December 13, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DECEMBER 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (MY MARKET TAKE FOR THE REST OF 2013), (DOUBLING UP ON SOFTBANK), (SFTBY) (SPY), (XLF), (TLT), (FXY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (TESTIMONIAL) SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the December 18 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, December 18 at 12:00 PM EST. This is the last webinar of 2013! I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to … [Read more...]

My Market Take for the Rest of 2014

Zephyr

I can’t believe how fast the year has gone by. It seems like only yesterday that I was riding the transcontinental railroad from Chicago to San Francisco, writing my 2013 All Asset Class Review. Now 2014 is at our doorstep. As usual, the market has got it all wrong. There is not going to be a taper by the Federal Reserve next week. If there is, it will be only $5-$10 … [Read more...]

Doubling Up on Softbank

Masayoshi Son

I have always been a big fan of buying a dollar for 30 cents. That appears to be the opportunity now presented by the Japanese software giant, Softbank (SFTBY). This gorilla of the Internet space was founded and run by my old friend, Masayoshi Son, who many refer to as a combination of the Jeff Bezos and the Bill Gates of Japan. I have known Mas, as his friends call him, for … [Read more...]

December 12, 2013

Global Market Comments December 12, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (IS THIS THE BIG TRADE OF 2014?), (GLD), (SLV), ($SSEC), (EEM), (FXI), (JJC), (DBA), (CORN), (CU), (USO), (KOL), (A CHRISTMAS DONATION FOR THE WORTHIEST OF CAUSES) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ($SSEC) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets … [Read more...]

A Christmas Donation for the Worthiest of Causes

I follow a broad range of unconventional, but highly useful leading economic indicators that gives me a decisive edge when predicting the future direction of global financial markets. One of them has started flashing a warning sign. I fund an orphanage in remote Zhanjiang, in China’s southern Guangdong province, near Hainan Island called The Zhanjiang Kids Organization that … [Read more...]

December 11, 2013

Global Market Comments December 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY), (SAY GOODBYE TO YOUR FAVORITE TEACHER), (RAILROADS ARE BREAKING OUT ALL OVER), (UNP), (CSX), (NSC), (CP), (ACI) Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) CSX Corp. (CSX) Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP) Arch Coal Inc. (ACI) … [Read more...]

The Bipolar Economy

Caveat Emptor

Corporate earnings are up big! Great! Buy! No wait! The economy is going down the toilet! Sell! Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Help! Anyone would be forgiven for thinking that the stock market has become bipolar. There is, in fact, an explanation for this madness. According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the answer is that corporate profits accounts for … [Read more...]

Say Goodbye to Your Favorite Teacher

Teacher

Don’t bother taking an apple to school to give your favorite teacher, unless you want to leave it in front of a machine. The schoolteacher is about to join the sorry ranks of the service station attendant, the elevator operator, and the telephone operators whose professions have been rendered useless by technology. The next big social trend in this country will be to replace … [Read more...]

December 10, 2013

Global Market Comments December 10, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (GOTTA LOVE THAT NOVEMBER NONFARM PAYROLL), (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER PROFIT SPURTS TO 59%), (SPY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (TLT), (FXY) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY) Apple Inc. (AAPL) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) … [Read more...]

Gotta Love That November Nonfarm Payroll

Ben Bernanke - Cartoon

The November nonfarm payroll blew out to the upside once again, with 203,000 souls landing jobs for the month. Previous months were substantially revised up. The headline unemployment rate made a whopping great fall from 7.3% to 7.0%, the sharpest drop in years. The much feared collapse in the jobs market triggered by the October Washington shut down was dead on arrival. … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Profit Spurts to 59%

TA Performance

The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service is still going ballistic, reaching the heady height of 59% for the year. I know some of your saw your faith challenged when, at one point, the stock market was looking at five consecutive down days last week. The red ink all disappeared when the November nonfarm payroll delivered shockingly positive numbers, … [Read more...]

December 9, 2013

Global Market Comments December 9, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LESSONS FROM THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR), (FXA), (EWA), (HANGING OUT WITH THE WOZ), (AAPL), (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) iShares MSCI Australia (EWA) Apple Inc. (AAPL) … [Read more...]

Lessons from the Australian dollar

Kangaroo - Car

Last month, I shot out a Trade Alert to buy the Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) December, 2013 $89-$91 bull call spread that turned immediately profitable. A mere four trading days later I sold out, after the (FXA) rallied an impressive $1.2, adding 0.84% to the value of my model trading portfolio. That turned out to be the absolute top of the move. This is not … [Read more...]

December 6, 2013

Global Market Comments December 6, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE BOND CRASH HAS ONLY JUST STARTED), ($TNX), (TLT), (TBT), (INDIA VS CHINA), (FXI), (PIN), (INP), (TTM) 10-Year Treasury Note ($TNX) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) PowerShares India (PIN) iPath MSCI India Index … [Read more...]

India is Catching Up With China

Rickshaw

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 36 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate. My friends at the International Monetary Fund … [Read more...]

December 5, 2013

Global Market Comments December 5, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE POPULATION BOOM), (WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL), (CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR), (WHO EXPENSIVE OIL HURTS THE MOST), (USO), (TESTIMONIAL) Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index (CGW) PowerShares Water Resources (PHO) First Trust ISE Water Idx (FIW) Veolia Environnement S.A. … [Read more...]

The Population Boom

Traffic

In their century long coverage of exotic places, cultures, and practices, National Geographic Magazine inadvertently sheds light on broad global trends that deeply affect the rest of us. Plus, the pictures are great. A recent issue celebrated the approach of the world's population to 7 billion, and the implications therein. Long time readers of this letter know that … [Read more...]

Why Water Will Soon Become More Valuable Than Oil

Water Fall

If you think that an energy shortage is bad, it will pale in comparison to the next water crisis. So investment in fresh water infrastructure is going to be a great recurring long-term investment theme. One theory about the endless wars in the Middle East since 1918 is that they have really been over water rights. Although Earth is often referred to as the water planet, only … [Read more...]

Who Expensive Oil Hurts the Most

Before-After

Every time the price of oil spikes, we learn vast amounts of information about the global reach of this indispensable commodity. It's like taking a non-core elective in geology at college. So I was fascinated when I found the chart of relative sector winners and losers below. No surprise that energy does best from sky-high crude prices. It is followed by telecommunications … [Read more...]

December 4, 2013

Global Market Comments December 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (ARE YOU READY FOR PRESIDENT HILLARY?), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

The Markets and President Hillary

Hillary Clinton

Yes, I know that the presidential election of 2016 is three years off. But if you already know the outcome of that contest you can use it to your advantage trading the markets today. You don’t want to get caught out like many conservatives did in 2012, who were forced to dump stock in a hurry to beat a surprise jump in capital gains taxes after an unexpected Obama win, … [Read more...]

December 3, 2013

Global Market Comments December 3, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THAT OTHER “GREAT REALLOCATION” OUT OF THE YEN), (FXY), (YCS), ($NIKK), (DXJ), (TLT), (BUY FLOOD INSRANCE WITH THE VIX), (VIX), (VXX), (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) Tokyo Nikkei Average Indx ($NIKK) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) iShares 20+ … [Read more...]

That Other “Great Reallocation” Out of the Yen

Woman - Hari Kari

The big talk in the financial markets this year was of the “Great Reallocation” out of bonds and into stocks.” The problem is that it was just that: talk. While redemptions of retail bond mutual funds have topped $147 billion since June, the big money has yet to move in size. However, there is a great reallocation that is already well under way. In fact, it already completed … [Read more...]

Buy Flood Insurance With the VIX

Man-Pogo Stick

I am one of those cheapskates who buys Christmas ornaments by the bucket load from Costco in January for ten cents on the dollar because my eleven month return on capital comes close to 1,000%. I also like buying flood insurance in the middle of the summer when the forecast here in California is for endless days of sunshine. That is what we are facing now with the volatility … [Read more...]

December 2, 2013

Global Market Comments December 2, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD DAY TRADER BRINGS IN 292% RETURN IN 2013), (GOOG), (IBM), (SOYB), (AAPL), (TLT),  (TBT), (FXY), (YCS), (FXE), (EUO), (BEWARE THE COMING EQUITY FAMINE), (TESTIMONIAL) Google Inc. (GOOG) International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Teucrium Soybean (SOYB) Apple Inc. (AAPL) iShares 20+ Year … [Read more...]

Mad Day Trader Brings in 292% Return in 2013

Jim Parker

When Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker, told me he was up 292% over the past seven months, I didn’t believe him. The value of a nominal $1,000 investment would have to have increased to $3,124. “It’s too good to be true,” I thought. Nobody will believe it. Even my own customer support people said it was a crazy number. But after carefully analyzing Jim’s trade history, I saw … [Read more...]

November 29, 2013

Global Market Comments November 29, 2013 Fiat Lux SPECIAL THANKSGIVING ISSUE Featured Trade: (DECEMBER 4 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (SURVIVING THANKSGIVING) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss Jon Najarian and John Thomas at the December 4 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, December 4 at 3:30 PM EST, which is NOT THE USUAL TIME! Co hosting the show will be my buddy, Trademonster’s Jon Najarian, and we will together be looking into the trading opportunities looming fast in 2014. Don’t miss a chance to probe the two of the greatest trading minds on Wall Street! Register early to get a … [Read more...]

Surviving Thanksgiving

Norman Rockwell Thanksgiving

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is taking a much-needed break for the next few days to take Turkey with the expanded family in Portland, Oregon. The Trade Alerts have been going out so fast and furious that it is all starting to become a blur to me. I am going to draw the line at 70 alerts for November. A 28-pound bird made the ultimate sacrifice, and will be accompanied with … [Read more...]

November 27, 2013

Global Market Comments November 27, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DEMOGRAPHICS AS DESTINY), (SPY), (EWJ), (EWL), (EWU), (EWG), (EWY), (FXI), (EIRL), (GREK), (EWP), (RSX), (IDX), (EPOL), (TUR), (EWZ), (PIN), (EIS), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ) iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped Index (EWL) iShares MSCI United Kingdom (EWU) iShareiShares … [Read more...]

November 26, 2013

Global Market Comments November 26, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HERE COMES THE NEXT PEACE DIVIDEND), (SPY), (XLI), (XLF), (XLK), (C), (UUP), (USO), (TAKING PROFITS ON THE YEN….AGAIN!), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) Citigroup, Inc. … [Read more...]

Here Comes the Next Peace Dividend

Iran Nuclear Missile

I was amazed to see the Dow Average open up only 60 points this morning, and oil to fall a mere $1.50, given the enormous long term implications of a real nuclear deal with Iran. Over the decades, I have noticed that Wall Street isn’t very good at analyzing international political matters and the implications for their own markets. This appears to be one of those cases. The … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on the Yen….Again!

Woman - Hari Kari

This is my 14th consecutive closing Trade Alert, and the 20th including my remaining profitable open positions. I have only six more to go until a break my previous record of 25. It doesn’t get any better than this. The yen is now in free fall, and the Japanese stock market is going ballistic, as I expected. Both the ProShares Ultra Short Yen double short ETF (YCS) and the … [Read more...]

November 25, 2013

Global Market Comments November 25, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HURTLES TO 58%) (C), (XLF), (XLI), (FXY), (FXA), (TLT), (TBT), (TIME TO SOAK UP SOME SOFTBANK), (SFTBY), (AMZN), (ORCL), (GOOG), (EBAY), (TWTR) Citigroup, Inc. (C) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hurtles to 58%

C 11-22-13

The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service is still going ballistic, falling just short of a 60% gain for the year last week. Every new subscriber since September has seen 100% of their trades turn profitable. This is your classic “shooting fish in a barrel” market. I know guys my age aren’t supposed to be packing in 16-hour workdays. But it’s all … [Read more...]

Time to Soak Up Some Softbank

Masayoshi Son

I have always been a big fan of buying a dollar for 30 cents. That appears to be the opportunity now presented by the Japanese software giant, Softbank (SFTBY). This gorilla of the Internet space was founded and run by my old friend, Masayoshi Son, who many refer to as a combination of the Jeff Bezos and the Bill Gates of Japan. I have known Mas, as his friends call him, for … [Read more...]

November 22, 2013

Global Market Comments November 22, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TAKING PROFITS ON CITIGROUP), (C), (XLF), (WFC), (MS), (GS), (JPM), (WATCH OUT FOR THE JOBS TRAP), (FDX), (UPS), (WATCH THOSE MONETARY AGGREGATES) Citigroup, Inc. (C) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) Morgan Stanley (MS) The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) JPMorgan … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on Citigroup

Citibank

I have discovered a correlation in the market that you can use for the rest of this year, for all of 2014, and probably for the next 20 years. Whenever the Treasury bond market (TLT) takes a dive, bank shares rocket. This is a particularly happy discovery, as my model-trading portfolio is long bank shares and short the Treasury bond market. By buying bank shares here you are … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Jobs Trap

Cargo Plane

We are about to get some wild, seasonal gyrations to the jobs numbers, and I think you will be well advised to know about them in advance. A large part of our economy is moving online more rapidly than most people and governments realize. According to ComScore, a marketing data research firm, online sales leapt by 15% to $35.3 billion during the last November-December … [Read more...]

Watch Those Monetary Aggregates!

Football Team-CA Junior Varsity-1947

Call me a nerd, but instead of spending my Sundays watching football, I pour over data analyzing the monetary aggregates. That’s a tough thing to say for someone whose dad was a lineman on the University of Southern California’s legendary 1947 junior varsity football team. This is so I can gain insights into the future performance of assets classes. What I am seeing these … [Read more...]

November 21, 2013

Global Market Comments November 21, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CASHING IN ON OBAMACARE), (XLV), (GILD), (AET), (WPT), (THE FLASH CRASH RISK IS RISING), (SPX), ($INDU), (TESTIMONIAL) Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) Aetna Inc. (AET) World Point Terminals, LP (WPT) S&P 500 Index (SPX) Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) … [Read more...]

Cashing In On Obamacare

Doctor-Girl

Not a day, an hour, or a minute goes by without the media blasting at me about how terrible Obamacare is. I wondered, how terrible can it be? There’s got to be a trade in there somewhere. After intensively researching several industries I concluded that the investment opportunities created by the president’s signature legislative accomplishment are absolutely massive. The … [Read more...]

The Flash Crash Risk is Rising

You Tube

Those who lived through the cataclysmic “flash crash” that occurred precisely at 2:45 pm EST on May 6, 2010, have been dreading a replay ever since. Their worst nightmares may soon be realized. That is when the Dow Index (INDU) dropped a gob smacking 650 points in minutes, wiping out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization. On that day, some ETF’s saw intraday declines … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Melts Up to 56.4% 2013 Performance

TA Performance

I sit here painfully typing this letter, as my fingertips have been worn down to bloody stumps. I have been pounding out the Trade Alerts since the month started, sending out 37, and the month is only half over. That works out to a 3.3636 Trade Alerts a day! I have been so busy that I literally haven’t had time to eat, living entirely on black coffee, and losing three pounds … [Read more...]

November 20, 2013

Global Market Comments November 20, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE MARKET TAKES A BREAK), (SPY), (IWM), (FXY), (AAPL), (C), (TLT), (RINGING THE REGISTER WITH THE AUSSIE), (FXA), (EWA), (FXI), (THE MYSTERY OF THE BRASHER DOUBLOON) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Citigroup, Inc. … [Read more...]

The Market Takes a Break

Bathtub-Girl-Money

I often use my own profit and loss statement as a leading market indicator. Whenever I am blessed with a windfall profit, it is frequently time to sell. On those rare occasions when I take a big hit, it is invariably time to buy. This is one of those times. Since November 1, the Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has earned a white-hot 12.12%, taking my year … [Read more...]

Ringing the Register with the Aussie

Kangaroo

This is our 13th consecutive closing profitable position, and 19th consecutive profitable Trade Alert when you include our remaining open positions. I have only seven more winners to go before I break my old record of 25. Since I strapped on this trade last week, the (FXA) has popped a full 1 ¼ points to the upside. It’s tough to say where these options are really trading, … [Read more...]

CHINESE REFORMS WILL SEND US STOCKS SKYWARD – Update

Deng Xiaoping

The Chinese government has announced the most revolutionary changes to its economy in nearly four decades. The implications for global stock markets are hugely positive, and until now, under appreciated. The Middle Kingdom’s state controlled media, never prone to hyperbole, are calling it “a new historical starting point.” Chinese stocks have rocketed since word of the broad … [Read more...]

November 19, 2013

Global Market Comments November 19, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CHINESE REFORMS AND THE US STOCK MARKET), (FXI), (CHL), (CYB), (RUBBING SHOULDERS WITH THE “1%” AT INCLINE VILLAGE) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) China Mobile Limited (CHL) WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB) … [Read more...]

Rubbing Shoulders with “The 1%” at Incline Village

incline2x

If you really want to get a read on how “the 1%” are faring these days, take a ski vacation to the tony hamlet of Incline Village on the pristine shores of Nevada’s Lake Tahoe. Each morning, I trekked to Starbucks, one of the few local sources for the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. There, trophy wives line up to buy their chai tea lattes, all tall, thin, and … [Read more...]

November 18, 2013

Global Market Comments November 18, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 20 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER MELTS UP TO 56% 2013 PERFORMANCE), (SPY), (IWM), (FXA), (TLT), (AAPL), (XLI), (C), (THE YEN IS DEAD MEAT), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (TM), (SELLING BONDS AGAIN), (TLT), (TBT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) CurrencyShares … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the November 20 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, November 20 at 12:00 noon EST. Login in early to get a space. The traffic is building quickly. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

The Yen is Dead Meat

Ninja

Last week, I begged you, pleaded with you, and even pounded the table to get you to increase your shorts in the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS), and longs in the Japanese stock market (DXJ). I was certain that Japan’s beleaguered currency was about to break out of its tedious six month trading range and plumb new lows. I turned out to be dead right. My argument was that with … [Read more...]

Selling Bonds Again

Girl-Sad

You all know well my antipathy to the bond market, which I believe hit a 60-year peak on August 18, 2012 at 10:32 AM EST. I managed to catch the exact top of the one-month post taper bond market rally, and sent the Trade Alerts to sell bonds showering upon you. I quickly closed all of those out for nice profits. We have since seen a $2.24 dead cat bounce in the (TLT) that … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader 2013 Performance Tops 51%

TA Performance

The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted yet another new all time high in performance, taking in 51.13%. The November month to date record is now an enviable 6.67%. The three-year return is an eye popping 106.18%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 20.3%. That brings my averaged annualized return … [Read more...]

November 15, 2013

Global Market Comments November 15, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WATCHING THE CASH ROLL IN), (SPY), (IWM), (FXE), (XLI), (C), (FXA), (AAPL), (HOPPING ON THE AUSSIE), (FXA), (EWA), (FCX), (LUNCH WITH ROBERT REICH) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) Citigroup, Inc. … [Read more...]

Watching the Cash Roll In

Expiring TA Nov. Opt.

Today, many followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert service have up to eight November option spreads expiring at their maximum potential profit. My strategy of taking advantage of the short November expiration calendar and betting that the markets stay in narrow ranges turned out to be wildly successful. At this stage I am batting eight for eight. If these all … [Read more...]

Hopping on the Aussie

Kangaroo

We have a fantastic double bottom developing here on the charts for the Australian dollar (FXA). I think that RISK ON will be the order of the day for the next six months, and the currency of the Land Down Under should prosper mightily. This is a play on the modest recovery of the Chinese economy continuing, as Australia is far and away their largest supplier to them of bulk … [Read more...]

November 14, 2013

Global Market Comments November 14, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LOADING UP ON THE FINANCIALS), (C), (BAC), (JPM), (MS), (XLF) (THE BULL MARKET IN AMERICAN COLLEGE DEGREES) Citigroup, Inc. (C) Bank of America Corporation (BAC) JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Morgan Stanley (MS) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) … [Read more...]

Loading Up On the Financials

Citibike

After ignoring the financial sector for most of the year, I am more than happy to jump into it here. The sector has been a serious laggard for the past three months, trailing the front-runners I picked in technology, industrials, health care, and consumer cyclicals. After chasing these favorites, traders are now looking for new fresh meat to devour. No one would touch … [Read more...]

November 13, 2013

Global Market Comments November 13, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DOUBLING UP ON MY YEN SHORTS), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (UUP), (SAN FRANCISCO’S SUFFERING RENTERS TAKE ANOTHER HIT), (WHERE THE ECONOMIST “BIG MAC” INDEX FINDS CURRENCY VALUE), (MCD), (FXE), (YCS), (FXF), (CYB) (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen … [Read more...]

Doubling Up On My Yen Shorts

Woman - Hari Kari

My bet that the Japanese yen (FXY) would weaken against the dollar has paid off handsomely. I am now so confident that we are finally breaking out of a six month trading range to the downside that I am more than happy to double my short position in the yen. I am therefore taking on the Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) December, 2013 $101-$104 in-the-money bear put … [Read more...]

November 12, 2013

Global Market Comments November 12, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (YOU JUST CAN’T KEEP AMERICA DOWN), (TLT), (SPY), (GLD), (A SPECIAL NOTE ON NOVEMBER EXERCISED OPTIONS) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) … [Read more...]

You Just Can’t Keep America Down

Uncle Sam - Fist

You just can’t keep America down. That is the overwhelming message from Friday’s blockbuster October nonfarm payroll showing that 204,000 jobs were added, double the industry forecasts. The headline unemployment rate ratcheted back up from 7.2% to 7.3%, the first gain in many months. August and September were revised up by an eye popping 60,000 jobs. October private sector … [Read more...]

A Special Note on November Exercised Options

There are only 4 days left until the equity option expiration on November 15. My short dated November expiration play turned out to be wildly successful, with all nine of these trades quickly turning profitable. Including the six positions we now have on board, the last 14 consecutive Trade Alerts have been profitable, raising the success rate of our service to a stunning … [Read more...]

November 11, 2013

Global Market Comments November 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER 2013 PERFORMANCE TOPS 51%), (TLT), (TBT), (AAPL), (XLI), (IWM), (SPY) (TESTIMONIAL), (A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) iShares Russell 2000 ETF … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Blasts to new All Time High

TA Performance YTD

The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a new all time high in performance, taking in 46.05% so far in 2013. The three-year return is an eye popping 101.7%, taking the averaged annualized return to 35%. That compares to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of 19%. This has been the profit since the groundbreaking trade … [Read more...]

November 8, 2013

Global Market Comments November 8, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RISING RISK OF A MARKET MELT UP) (FXE), (FXY), (YCS), (FXA), (SPY), (USO), (THE PARTY IS JUST GETTING STARTED WITH THE JAPANESE YEN), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust … [Read more...]

The Rising Risk of a Market Melt Up

Wall Street Bull

The risk of a major market melt up just took a quantum leap upward with the European Central Bank’s surprise 25 basis points in interest rates a few minutes ago. The move had not been expected from normally sleepy and moribund European monetary authorities for a few more months. The ECB’s action has major positive implications for the world economy. It gives a shot of … [Read more...]

November 7, 2013

Global Market Comments November 7, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SELLING THE YEN, AGAIN), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (ENJOY THE DOLLAR RALLY WHILE IT LASTS), (FXA), (FXC), (BNZ), (CYB), (FXE) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) CurrencyShares Canadian … [Read more...]

Selling the Yen, Again

Japanese Girl

The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its previous meeting last night, so we now officially know what’s bothering them. While the inflation rate has edged up to 0.7%, it is still miles (kilometers) away from its two year target of 2.0%. The 100% growth in the money supply promised by the end of 2014 is arriving on schedule. Since October, 2012, the central bank’s balance … [Read more...]

Enjoy the Dollar Rally While it Lasts

TenDollarBill

Any trader will tell you the trend is your friend, and the overwhelming direction for the US dollar for the last 220 years has been down. Our first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, found himself constantly embroiled in sex scandals. Take a ten-dollar bill out of your wallet and you’re looking at a picture of a world class horndog, a swordsman of the first order. When … [Read more...]

November 6, 2013

Global Market Comments November 6, 2013 Fiat Lux (SPECIAL BATTERY ISSUE) Featured Trade: (THE GREAT RACE FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGY), (TSLA), (GM), (BYDDF), (NSANY), (SQM), (TM) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) General Motors Company (GM) BYD Company Ltd. (BYDDF) Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY) Chemical & Mining Co. of Chile Inc. (SQM) Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) … [Read more...]