Time to Soak Up Some Softbank

Masayoshi Son

I have always been a big fan of buying a dollar for 30 cents. That appears to be the opportunity now presented by the Japanese software giant, Softbank (SFTBY). This gorilla of the Internet space was founded and run by my old friend, Masayoshi Son, who many refer to as a combination of the Jeff Bezos and the Bill Gates of Japan. I have known Mas, as his friends call him, for … [Read more...]

November 22, 2013

Global Market Comments November 22, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TAKING PROFITS ON CITIGROUP), (C), (XLF), (WFC), (MS), (GS), (JPM), (WATCH OUT FOR THE JOBS TRAP), (FDX), (UPS), (WATCH THOSE MONETARY AGGREGATES) Citigroup, Inc. (C) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) Morgan Stanley (MS) The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) JPMorgan … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on Citigroup

Citibank

I have discovered a correlation in the market that you can use for the rest of this year, for all of 2014, and probably for the next 20 years. Whenever the Treasury bond market (TLT) takes a dive, bank shares rocket. This is a particularly happy discovery, as my model-trading portfolio is long bank shares and short the Treasury bond market. By buying bank shares here you are … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Jobs Trap

Cargo Plane

We are about to get some wild, seasonal gyrations to the jobs numbers, and I think you will be well advised to know about them in advance. A large part of our economy is moving online more rapidly than most people and governments realize. According to ComScore, a marketing data research firm, online sales leapt by 15% to $35.3 billion during the last November-December … [Read more...]

Watch Those Monetary Aggregates!

Football Team-CA Junior Varsity-1947

Call me a nerd, but instead of spending my Sundays watching football, I pour over data analyzing the monetary aggregates. That’s a tough thing to say for someone whose dad was a lineman on the University of Southern California’s legendary 1947 junior varsity football team. This is so I can gain insights into the future performance of assets classes. What I am seeing these … [Read more...]

November 21, 2013

Global Market Comments November 21, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CASHING IN ON OBAMACARE), (XLV), (GILD), (AET), (WPT), (THE FLASH CRASH RISK IS RISING), (SPX), ($INDU), (TESTIMONIAL) Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) Aetna Inc. (AET) World Point Terminals, LP (WPT) S&P 500 Index (SPX) Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) … [Read more...]

Cashing In On Obamacare

Doctor-Girl

Not a day, an hour, or a minute goes by without the media blasting at me about how terrible Obamacare is. I wondered, how terrible can it be? There’s got to be a trade in there somewhere. After intensively researching several industries I concluded that the investment opportunities created by the president’s signature legislative accomplishment are absolutely massive. The … [Read more...]

The Flash Crash Risk is Rising

You Tube

Those who lived through the cataclysmic “flash crash” that occurred precisely at 2:45 pm EST on May 6, 2010, have been dreading a replay ever since. Their worst nightmares may soon be realized. That is when the Dow Index (INDU) dropped a gob smacking 650 points in minutes, wiping out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization. On that day, some ETF’s saw intraday declines … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Melts Up to 56.4% 2013 Performance

TA Performance

I sit here painfully typing this letter, as my fingertips have been worn down to bloody stumps. I have been pounding out the Trade Alerts since the month started, sending out 37, and the month is only half over. That works out to a 3.3636 Trade Alerts a day! I have been so busy that I literally haven’t had time to eat, living entirely on black coffee, and losing three pounds … [Read more...]

November 20, 2013

Global Market Comments November 20, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE MARKET TAKES A BREAK), (SPY), (IWM), (FXY), (AAPL), (C), (TLT), (RINGING THE REGISTER WITH THE AUSSIE), (FXA), (EWA), (FXI), (THE MYSTERY OF THE BRASHER DOUBLOON) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Citigroup, Inc. … [Read more...]

The Market Takes a Break

Bathtub-Girl-Money

I often use my own profit and loss statement as a leading market indicator. Whenever I am blessed with a windfall profit, it is frequently time to sell. On those rare occasions when I take a big hit, it is invariably time to buy. This is one of those times. Since November 1, the Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has earned a white-hot 12.12%, taking my year … [Read more...]

Ringing the Register with the Aussie

Kangaroo

This is our 13th consecutive closing profitable position, and 19th consecutive profitable Trade Alert when you include our remaining open positions. I have only seven more winners to go before I break my old record of 25. Since I strapped on this trade last week, the (FXA) has popped a full 1 ¼ points to the upside. It’s tough to say where these options are really trading, … [Read more...]

CHINESE REFORMS WILL SEND US STOCKS SKYWARD – Update

Deng Xiaoping

The Chinese government has announced the most revolutionary changes to its economy in nearly four decades. The implications for global stock markets are hugely positive, and until now, under appreciated. The Middle Kingdom’s state controlled media, never prone to hyperbole, are calling it “a new historical starting point.” Chinese stocks have rocketed since word of the broad … [Read more...]

November 19, 2013

Global Market Comments November 19, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CHINESE REFORMS AND THE US STOCK MARKET), (FXI), (CHL), (CYB), (RUBBING SHOULDERS WITH THE “1%” AT INCLINE VILLAGE) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) China Mobile Limited (CHL) WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB) … [Read more...]

Rubbing Shoulders with “The 1%” at Incline Village

incline2x

If you really want to get a read on how “the 1%” are faring these days, take a ski vacation to the tony hamlet of Incline Village on the pristine shores of Nevada’s Lake Tahoe. Each morning, I trekked to Starbucks, one of the few local sources for the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. There, trophy wives line up to buy their chai tea lattes, all tall, thin, and … [Read more...]

November 18, 2013

Global Market Comments November 18, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 20 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER MELTS UP TO 56% 2013 PERFORMANCE), (SPY), (IWM), (FXA), (TLT), (AAPL), (XLI), (C), (THE YEN IS DEAD MEAT), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (TM), (SELLING BONDS AGAIN), (TLT), (TBT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) CurrencyShares … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the November 20 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, November 20 at 12:00 noon EST. Login in early to get a space. The traffic is building quickly. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

The Yen is Dead Meat

Ninja

Last week, I begged you, pleaded with you, and even pounded the table to get you to increase your shorts in the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS), and longs in the Japanese stock market (DXJ). I was certain that Japan’s beleaguered currency was about to break out of its tedious six month trading range and plumb new lows. I turned out to be dead right. My argument was that with … [Read more...]

Selling Bonds Again

Girl-Sad

You all know well my antipathy to the bond market, which I believe hit a 60-year peak on August 18, 2012 at 10:32 AM EST. I managed to catch the exact top of the one-month post taper bond market rally, and sent the Trade Alerts to sell bonds showering upon you. I quickly closed all of those out for nice profits. We have since seen a $2.24 dead cat bounce in the (TLT) that … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader 2013 Performance Tops 51%

TA Performance

The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted yet another new all time high in performance, taking in 51.13%. The November month to date record is now an enviable 6.67%. The three-year return is an eye popping 106.18%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 20.3%. That brings my averaged annualized return … [Read more...]

November 15, 2013

Global Market Comments November 15, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WATCHING THE CASH ROLL IN), (SPY), (IWM), (FXE), (XLI), (C), (FXA), (AAPL), (HOPPING ON THE AUSSIE), (FXA), (EWA), (FCX), (LUNCH WITH ROBERT REICH) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) Citigroup, Inc. … [Read more...]

Watching the Cash Roll In

Expiring TA Nov. Opt.

Today, many followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert service have up to eight November option spreads expiring at their maximum potential profit. My strategy of taking advantage of the short November expiration calendar and betting that the markets stay in narrow ranges turned out to be wildly successful. At this stage I am batting eight for eight. If these all … [Read more...]

Hopping on the Aussie

Kangaroo

We have a fantastic double bottom developing here on the charts for the Australian dollar (FXA). I think that RISK ON will be the order of the day for the next six months, and the currency of the Land Down Under should prosper mightily. This is a play on the modest recovery of the Chinese economy continuing, as Australia is far and away their largest supplier to them of bulk … [Read more...]

November 14, 2013

Global Market Comments November 14, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LOADING UP ON THE FINANCIALS), (C), (BAC), (JPM), (MS), (XLF) (THE BULL MARKET IN AMERICAN COLLEGE DEGREES) Citigroup, Inc. (C) Bank of America Corporation (BAC) JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Morgan Stanley (MS) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) … [Read more...]

Loading Up On the Financials

Citibike

After ignoring the financial sector for most of the year, I am more than happy to jump into it here. The sector has been a serious laggard for the past three months, trailing the front-runners I picked in technology, industrials, health care, and consumer cyclicals. After chasing these favorites, traders are now looking for new fresh meat to devour. No one would touch … [Read more...]

November 13, 2013

Global Market Comments November 13, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DOUBLING UP ON MY YEN SHORTS), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (UUP), (SAN FRANCISCO’S SUFFERING RENTERS TAKE ANOTHER HIT), (WHERE THE ECONOMIST “BIG MAC” INDEX FINDS CURRENCY VALUE), (MCD), (FXE), (YCS), (FXF), (CYB) (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen … [Read more...]

Doubling Up On My Yen Shorts

Woman - Hari Kari

My bet that the Japanese yen (FXY) would weaken against the dollar has paid off handsomely. I am now so confident that we are finally breaking out of a six month trading range to the downside that I am more than happy to double my short position in the yen. I am therefore taking on the Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) December, 2013 $101-$104 in-the-money bear put … [Read more...]

November 12, 2013

Global Market Comments November 12, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (YOU JUST CAN’T KEEP AMERICA DOWN), (TLT), (SPY), (GLD), (A SPECIAL NOTE ON NOVEMBER EXERCISED OPTIONS) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) … [Read more...]

You Just Can’t Keep America Down

Uncle Sam - Fist

You just can’t keep America down. That is the overwhelming message from Friday’s blockbuster October nonfarm payroll showing that 204,000 jobs were added, double the industry forecasts. The headline unemployment rate ratcheted back up from 7.2% to 7.3%, the first gain in many months. August and September were revised up by an eye popping 60,000 jobs. October private sector … [Read more...]

A Special Note on November Exercised Options

There are only 4 days left until the equity option expiration on November 15. My short dated November expiration play turned out to be wildly successful, with all nine of these trades quickly turning profitable. Including the six positions we now have on board, the last 14 consecutive Trade Alerts have been profitable, raising the success rate of our service to a stunning … [Read more...]

November 11, 2013

Global Market Comments November 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER 2013 PERFORMANCE TOPS 51%), (TLT), (TBT), (AAPL), (XLI), (IWM), (SPY) (TESTIMONIAL), (A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) iShares Russell 2000 ETF … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Blasts to new All Time High

TA Performance YTD

The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a new all time high in performance, taking in 46.05% so far in 2013. The three-year return is an eye popping 101.7%, taking the averaged annualized return to 35%. That compares to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of 19%. This has been the profit since the groundbreaking trade … [Read more...]

November 8, 2013

Global Market Comments November 8, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RISING RISK OF A MARKET MELT UP) (FXE), (FXY), (YCS), (FXA), (SPY), (USO), (THE PARTY IS JUST GETTING STARTED WITH THE JAPANESE YEN), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust … [Read more...]

The Rising Risk of a Market Melt Up

Wall Street Bull

The risk of a major market melt up just took a quantum leap upward with the European Central Bank’s surprise 25 basis points in interest rates a few minutes ago. The move had not been expected from normally sleepy and moribund European monetary authorities for a few more months. The ECB’s action has major positive implications for the world economy. It gives a shot of … [Read more...]

November 7, 2013

Global Market Comments November 7, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SELLING THE YEN, AGAIN), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (ENJOY THE DOLLAR RALLY WHILE IT LASTS), (FXA), (FXC), (BNZ), (CYB), (FXE) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) CurrencyShares Canadian … [Read more...]

Selling the Yen, Again

Japanese Girl

The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its previous meeting last night, so we now officially know what’s bothering them. While the inflation rate has edged up to 0.7%, it is still miles (kilometers) away from its two year target of 2.0%. The 100% growth in the money supply promised by the end of 2014 is arriving on schedule. Since October, 2012, the central bank’s balance … [Read more...]

Enjoy the Dollar Rally While it Lasts

TenDollarBill

Any trader will tell you the trend is your friend, and the overwhelming direction for the US dollar for the last 220 years has been down. Our first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, found himself constantly embroiled in sex scandals. Take a ten-dollar bill out of your wallet and you’re looking at a picture of a world class horndog, a swordsman of the first order. When … [Read more...]

November 6, 2013

Global Market Comments November 6, 2013 Fiat Lux (SPECIAL BATTERY ISSUE) Featured Trade: (THE GREAT RACE FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGY), (TSLA), (GM), (BYDDF), (NSANY), (SQM), (TM) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) General Motors Company (GM) BYD Company Ltd. (BYDDF) Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY) Chemical & Mining Co. of Chile Inc. (SQM) Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) … [Read more...]

The Great Race for Battery Technology

Energizer Bunny

One hundred years from now, historians will probably date the beginning of the fall of the American Empire to 1986. That is the year President Ronald Reagan ordered Jimmy Carter’s solar panels torn down from the White House roof, and when Chinese Premier Deng Xiaoping launched his secret “863” program to make his country a global technology leader. Is the End Near for the … [Read more...]

November 5, 2013

Global Market Comments November 5, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY I’M HAMMERING THE BOND MARKET), (TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (LINE), (MUB), (HYG), (JNK), (TAKE A LOOK AT OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM), (OXY), (BP), (OIL), (UNG),  (NSANY), (XOM) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond ETF … [Read more...]

Why I’m Hammering the Bond Market

Musical Chairs

Those lucky traders who have been following my Trade Alert service are well aware that I have been hamming the bond market for the past week. These new positions were a major factor in adding an impressive 5% to my model trading portfolio P&L during a week when there was very little happening in the real world. There is a method to my madness. This was supposed to be … [Read more...]

November 4, 2013

Global Market Comments November 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER BLASTS TO NEW ALL TIME HIGH), (FXE), (TLT), (TBT), SPY), (AAPL), (NOVEMBER 6 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (TESTIMONIAL ) (ALL I WANT TO DO IS RETIRE) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) SPDR S&P … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the November 6 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, November 6 at 12:00 noon EST. Login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to … [Read more...]

November 1, 2013

Global Market Comments November 1, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (COVERING SHORTS IN THE EURO), (FXE), (EUO), (THE CHIHUAHUA GLUT) (NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS), (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) … [Read more...]

Covering Shorts in the Euro

Euro Graphic

This short position has been a total home run of a trade, with the Euro going into freefall when the ink was barely dry on the Trade Alert. Rumors swept the foreign exchange pits this morning of a potential interest rate cut by the European Central Bank next week, which they really should have done a long time ago. Otherwise, the strong continental currency will strangle a … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Chihuahua Glut

Paris Hilton

Recently, I wrote about the Nevadan wrinkle in the housing crisis where distressed homeowners are letting their horses go wild to make their mortgage payment. Now neighboring California is facing a Chihuahua glut, where evicted homeowners are handing over their pets to animal shelters. The diminutive Mexican canine enjoyed a boom in popularity in recent years, thanks to … [Read more...]

Notice to Military Subscribers

Soldier

To the dozens of subscribers in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service! I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you cash out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from … [Read more...]

October 31, 2013

Global Market Comments October 31, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TRADE ALERT ON RISK CONTROL), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (SPY) (MY TAKE ON OBAMACARE), (XLV) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) … [Read more...]

Trade Alert on Risk Control

Market

In the wake of the Federal Reserve’s decision not to taper and to leave interest rates unchanged, our long positions are soaring and our short positions are collapsing. No surprise here, as both the Mad Hedge Fund Trader and the Mad Day Trader nailed the market’s reaction well in advance with a profusion of timely Trade Alerts over the last few days. Treasury bonds have … [Read more...]

My Take on Obamacare

Obamacare site

So much BS is flying about over the Obamacare issue that I can’t resist the temptation to put in my two cents worth. There was no chance this was going to work on day one, and I warned senior administration officials as much on many different occasions. Even the Massachusetts health care plan only saw 100 sign ups in the first month, and it was supported by both … [Read more...]

October 30, 2013

Global Market Comments October 30, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHEN GREAT MINDS THINK ALIKE), (SPY), (HEDGE FUNDS CIRCLING OVER THE EUROPEAN WRECKAGE), (BWX), (IGOV), (ITLY), (EU), (BUND), (FXE), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) SPDR Barclays International Treasury Bd (BWX) iShares International Treasury Bond (IGOV) PowerShares DB Italian Treas Bond ETN … [Read more...]

When Great Minds Think Alike

Goldilocks

Exactly 84 years ago from yesterday, the Great 1929 stock market crash occurred. The Dow Average plunged a stunning 30 points to 230, a one-day decline of 12%. The ticker tape lagged the market by two hours, and the newly bankrupt were jumping out of downtown windows. I remember it like it was yesterday. Well not really. But a number of friends over the decades lived … [Read more...]

Hedge Funds Circling Over the European Wreckage

George Clooney

Have you ever wanted to spend your summers basking in the sunlight at your mountain top Tuscan villa, surveying the manicured vineyards which produce your own estate bottled wine? Are you drawn by the cachet of claiming George Clooney as a celebrity neighbor on the model strewn shores of Lake Como? How about a luxury apartment that is walking distance from the Vatican? Hedge … [Read more...]

October 29, 2013

Global Market Comments October 29, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD DAY TRADER EDUCATIONAL WEBINAR), (THE RUN IN BONDS IS OVER), (TLT), (JNK), (HYG), (MUB), (ELD), (LINE), (AUSTERITY HITS WALL STREET) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG) iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF … [Read more...]

Mad Day Trader Educational Webinar

Jim Parker

Jim Parker, The Mad Day Trader, will be hosting an educational webinar on Wednesday, October 30 at 12:00 EDT. Ignore Jim Parker at your peril. Since he started his Mad Day Trading service in April, he has clocked a stunning 150% profit, independently audited. There’s no better trading service than the proven. Get any piece of that, and you have made your year. To register for … [Read more...]

The Run in Bonds is Over

The End is Near-sign

This is a bet that the ten-year Treasury bonds, now trading at a 2.50% yield, don’t fall below 2.40% over the next 14 trading days. It has to make this move on top of an unbelievable decline in yields from 3.0% to 2.50% since September. And it has to do it quickly. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday to consider whether they should raise rates, lower them, or leave them … [Read more...]

October 28, 2013

Global Market Comments October 28, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (WHY US STOCKS ARE DIRT CHEAP), (SPY), (IWM), (QQQ), (TSLA) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

October 25, 2013

Global Market Comments October 25, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FEEL LIKE INVESTING IN A STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM?), (GAF), (AFK), (EZA), (WHO SAYS THERE AREN’T ANY JOBS?), (WILL GOLD SUFFER THE FATE OF THE $10,000 BILL?) (GLD), (GDX) (THE TWELVE DAY YEAR) SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF) Market Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK) iShares MSCI … [Read more...]

Feel Like Investing in a State Sponsor of Terrorism?

African

How about buying shares in a country whose leaders have stolen $400 billion in the last decade and have seen 300 foreign workers kidnapped? Another country lost four wars in the last 40 years. Still interested? How about a country that suffers one of the world's highest AIDs rates, endures regular insurrections where all of the Westerners get massacred, and racked up 5 … [Read more...]

Will Gold Coins Suffer the Fate of the $10,000 Bill?

$10,000 Bill

The conspiracy theorists will love this one. Buried deep in the bowels of the 2,000 page health care bill was a new requirement for gold dealers to file Form 1099's for all retail sales by individuals over $600. Specifically, the measure can be found in section 9006 of the Patient Protection and Affordability Act of 2010. For foreign readers unencumbered by such concerns, … [Read more...]

October 24, 2013

Global Market Comments October 24, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE CASE AGAINST TREASURY BONDS), (TBT), (TLT), (MY PERSONAL LEADING ECONMIC INDICATOR), (HMC), (NSANY), (DXJ) (A FILM REVIEW OF “MARGIN CALL”) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY) WisdomTree … [Read more...]

Film Review of “Margin Call”

Kevin Spacey

Now it’s time for some cultural edification. I first became aware of “Margin Call” as a pre-production project four years ago when news leaked out that the principal actors, Kevin Stacey, Demi Moore, Stanley Tucci, and Jeremy Irons, were reading The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader to learn about the industry and get in character. The plot covers a 24-hour period on the eve … [Read more...]

The Worst is yet to Come

White House in Decay

I was not surprised to see the belated September nonfarm payroll come in at a miserable 148,000. It clearly shows that companies were already hunkering down with their overheads in the run-up to the recent DC slugfest. The figure had been delayed by the Washington shutdown, which froze all government data releases. In fact, the job market is weaker than even this number … [Read more...]

My Old Pal, Leonardo Fibonacci

Leonardo Fibonacci

I remember the 12th century like it was yesterday. In those days, the leading intellectuals used to get together and drink wine by the gallon, which then was really little more than rotten grape juice. The problem was that we all used to pass out before anybody came up with a great idea. Then someone started importing coffee from the Middle East and thinkers stayed awake long … [Read more...]

October 22, 2013

Global Market Comments October 22, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE INVEST LIKE A MONSTER SAN FRANCISCO TRADING CONFERENCE) (WHAT TO DO NOW?), (SPY), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the “Invest like a Monster” San Francisco Trading Conference

Trademonster

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape that will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance. Tickets are available for a … [Read more...]

What to Do Now?

Airplane Seat

I am completing one of the best trading years of my 45-year career in the stock market. The Trade Alert service is up by a stunning 41.5% so far in 2013 and by 96.55% since inception 35 months ago. Pretty much every forecast I made for the year came true (click here for “My 2013 Annual Asset Class Review”). The question now is: “What to do here?”  How do I beat the … [Read more...]

October 21, 2013

Global Market Comments October 21, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (SEND ME YOUR IDEAS), (REVISITING THE FIRST SILVER BUBBLE), (SLV), (SLW) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW) … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Send Me Your Ideas

The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is now approaching its seventh year of publication. During this time, I have religiously been pumping out 1,500 words a day, or eight double spaced typed pages, of original, independent minded, hard hitting, and often wickedly funny research. I’ve been covering stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, real estate, and agricultural … [Read more...]

Revisiting the First Silver Bubble

Nelson Bunker Hunt

With smoke still rising from the ruins of the recent silver crash, I thought I'd touch base with a wizened and grizzled old veteran who still remembers the last time a bubble popped for the white metal. That would be Mike Robertson, who runs Robertson Wealth Management, one of the largest and most successful registered investment advisors in the country. Mike is the last … [Read more...]

October 18, 2013

Global Market Comments October 18, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (OCTOBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (THE SHUTDOWN IS OVER…FOR NOW), (SPY), (EUROPEAN STYLE HOMELAND SECURITY), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the October 23 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, October 23 at 12:00 noon EDT. Login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to … [Read more...]

The Shutdown is Over….For Now

Arm Wrestling

After 16 days of high drama, bluster, and handwringing, the Great Washington Shutdown of 2013 is finally over. President Obama held fast and won. The Republicans kept changing their goals by the day and lost. But what we got was anything but a resolution. The next shutdown is now scheduled for January 15, and the Treasury bond default has been pushed back to March, … [Read more...]

European Style Homeland Security

CleeseJohn2

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent events in Libya, and have therefore raised their security level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.” The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940, when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized from … [Read more...]

October 17, 2013

Global Market Comments October 17, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DOGS OF THE DOW REVISTED) (XME), (XLB), (DBB), (JJG), (MOO), (DBA), (GLD), (SLV), (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH) SPDR S&P Metals & Mining (XME) Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJG) Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF … [Read more...]

Dogs of the Dow Revisited

Dogs Playing Cards

Sitting at my lakefront estate at Lake Tahoe’s Incline Village, I began to cogitate on what my trading portfolio for 2014 should look like. Then I thought, “Why wait?” Better to get the message out now than wait two and a half more months. The entry point for risk assets is better now than it will be early next year. So let’s get the lead out and start posting those … [Read more...]

Please Use My Free Data Base Search

Search

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up. You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box with the … [Read more...]

October 16, 2013

Global Market Comments October 16, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (ONSHORING TAKES ANOTHER GREAT LEAP FORWARD), (TSLA), (UMX), (EWW), (THE BULL MARKET IN MUSTANGS) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) ProShares Ultra MSCI Mexico Cppd IMI (UMX) iShares MSCI Mexico Capped (EWW) … [Read more...]

Onshoring Takes another Great Leap Forward

Man Fixing Machine

Have you tried to hire a sewing machine operator lately? I haven’t, but I have friends running major apparel companies who have (guess where I get all those tight fitting jeans?) Guess what? There aren’t any to be had. Since, 1990, some 77% of the American textiles workforce has been lost, when China joined the world economy in force, and the offshoring trend took flight. … [Read more...]

The Bull Market in Mustangs

Horses-Mustangs

Sitting here in the Silver State of Nevada, high in the Sierras, I feel obliged to comment on a bull market of a different sort. The Western US has found a new wrinkle in the housing collapse, where homeowners are desperately struggling to cut living costs to meet the next doubling of their adjustable rate mortgage payments on their underwater houses. Raising horses can … [Read more...]

October 15, 2013

Global Market Comments October 15, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (YALE’S ROBERT SHILLER BAGS NOBEL ECONOMICS PRIZE), (THE TRUE COST OF OIL), (USO), (XOM) United States Oil (USO) Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) … [Read more...]

Yale’s Robert Shiller Bags Nobel Economic Prize

Robert Shiller

It isn’t often when a friend of mine wins a Nobel Prize. But that’s what happened this weekend when the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the prestigious award to Yale University’s Robert Shiller. Shiller, along with Eugene Fama, and Lars Peter Hanson of the University of Chicago will share the $1.23 million cash award for their work on market pricing of … [Read more...]

The True Cost of Oil

ObamaSaudi-1

My annual electric bill here in sunny San Francisco comes to $4,800 a year. Since the California power authorities have set a goal of 33% alternative energy sources by 2020, PG&E (PGE) has the most aggressive green energy program in the country (click here for “The Solar Boom in California”. More expensive solar, wind, geothermal, and biodiesel power sources mean that my … [Read more...]

October 14, 2013

Global Market Comments October 14, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS WORSE THAN YOU THINK), (A SAD FAREWELL TO HELEN THOMAS) … [Read more...]

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

The Government Shutdown is Worse Than You Think

Fed. Govt Closed

I am rapidly coming to the depressing conclusion that the government shutdown, now in its 15th day, is going to have a far greater impact on the economy than most economists realize. When the markets figure this out, the result for share prices could be dire, putting my entire yearend bull case at risk. My earlier forecast was that 0.5% of GPD growth would get shaved from … [Read more...]

October 11, 2013

Global Market Comments October 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JOIN THE INVEST LIKE A MONSTER SAN FRANCISCO TRADING CONFERENCE), (APPLE IS READY TO EXPLODE), (AAPL), (CHL) Apple Inc. (AAPL) China Mobile Limited (CHL) … [Read more...]

Join the “Invest Like a Monster” San Francisco Trading Conference

Trademonster

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape that will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance. Tickets are available for a … [Read more...]

Apple is Ready to Explode

Gibraltar

You have to be impressed how Apple shares have been trading during the Washington shutdown and the debt ceiling crisis. While other highflying technology stocks have crashed and burned, Apple has held like the Rock of Gibraltar. Is this presaging much better things to come? After the bar was set extremely low in the run up to the iPhone 5s launch, there has been an onslaught … [Read more...]

October 10, 2013

Global Market Comments October 10, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE BEST ETF’S OF 2013), Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (KWT) First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (QCLN) Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX) The PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW) The First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy Index … [Read more...]

The Best ETF’s of 2013

House - Solar Panels

I’m sure you all spent the better part of last January explaining to your clients that they should be pouring all of their money into alternative energy, social media, and biotech ETF’s. What! You didn’t? You obviously failed to get the memo. Well, neither did I. Yes, I know this sounds like the makeup of the Sierra Club Pension Fund, if such a thing exists. Take a look at … [Read more...]

A Note on the Tesla Fire

JT with Tesla

You can’ keep a good stock down. That’s the obvious message on Tesla (TLSA) shares in the wake of the fire that consumed one of its $80,000 Model’s S-1’s on a Washington state road after it ran over the rear bumper of the truck it was following. The video was quickly plastered all over YouTube (click here to view). This was the first S-1 to catch fire since the production … [Read more...]

October 9, 2013

Global Market Comments October 9, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CUTTING BACK MY RISK), (SPY), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (AAPL), (NFLX), (HLF), (VIX), (WHAT’S GOING ON WITH THE VOLATILITY INDEX?), (VIX), (VXX) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Netflix, Inc. … [Read more...]

Cutting Back My Risk

Fed Govt Closed

By now, you have figured out that I executed a major “derisking” of my model trading portfolio today, cutting my exposure by two thirds. Most of these positions only had a few basis points in maximum profit left, so bailing here was a no brainer, a case of “Basic Risk Control 101.” Better to laugh about the market in a few days or weeks, than cry. My profits this year are so … [Read more...]

What’s Going on With the VIX?

Man-Pogo Stick

After crawling off the mat at the 12% level, and rising all the way back up to 21%, traders are wondering if the Volatility Index (VIX) is finally coming back to life. Or is this just another dead cat bounce? It wasn’t supposed to work that way. Falling markets should send investors scrambling to buy downside protection in the form of put options, which would automatically … [Read more...]

The New War on Hedge Fund Managers

Chinese Prioson Guards

Yang Yanming was slowly led from his cell by two burly uniformed guards in Beijing’s central prison to a waiting van in the courtyard, his hands cuffed behind him and his head bowed. Once in the vehicle, he was strapped to a gurney, hooked up to an IV, and given a highly concentrated injection of sodium pentobarbitol. Minutes later, a technician checked his pulse, and … [Read more...]