November 4, 2010 – My Analysis of the Election




1) My Analysis of the Election. Won the World Series, but lost the Speaker of the House. I guess San Francisco can't have everything. My expectation that demographic trends would limit Democratic losses turned out to be wrong. The kids stayed home and texted each other, partied, or watched MTV, and didn't go to the polls. I thought that if the Republicans won the House of Representatives, it would be by handful. They ended up taking 62 seats. Good thing my market calls are better than this, or I'd be washing windshields for a living at Park Avenue and 42nd Street. I nailed the Senate, which I correctly predicted the Tea Party would blow for the Republicans. I even called the spoiler states, Delaware and Nevada.

The West coast turned out to be a clean sweep for the Democrats, as I expected. Meg Whitman spent $35 per vote, versus 60 cents for Jerry Brown, and still lost by 13 percentage points. She probably would have done better if she just sent everyone a check. The sleeper that no one is paying attention to here is that simple majority rule for the legislature passed, dumping the 2/3 requirement. California taxes are about to go up a lot.

Still, without the presidency and the Senate, all conservatives have really won is the right to determine the House agenda, make speeches, and conduct investigations, which I am sure there will be a lot of. One newly elected conservative has even promised to hold McCarthy style un-American activities hearings. You can forget cooperation with the administration. These are not your father's Republicans. They have been rewarded for obstruction, the Senate setting an all time record for filibusters, so you can expect it to continue, or intensify. Bring on gridlock.


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