China’s View of China

China - Parade

I ran into Minxin Pei, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who imparted to me some iconoclastic, out of consensus views on China’s position in the world today. He thinks that power is not shifting from West to East; Asia is just lifting itself off the mat, with per capita GDP at $5,800, compared to $48,000 in the US. We are simply moving from a … [Read more...]

India is Catching Up With China

Rickshaw

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 35 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China’s white hot growth rate. My friends at the International Monetary Fund issued a … [Read more...]

Don’t Be Short China Here

Chinese Parade

Everyone who has been reading this letter for the past seven years (yes, there are quite a few of you), know that I am a fundamentalist first and a technician second. Of course you need to use both, as those who mistakenly leave one tool in the bag reliably underperform indexes. The one liner here is that I use fundamentals to identify broad, long term, even epochal … [Read more...]

The China View from 30,000 Feet

Great Wall of China

I have long sat beside the table of McKinsey & Co., the best management consulting company in Asia, hoping to catch some crumbs of wisdom (click here for their home page). So, I jumped at the chance to have breakfast with Shanghai based Worldwide Managing Director, Dominic Barton, when he passed through San Francisco visiting clients. These are usually sedentary affairs, … [Read more...]

Why Jim Chanos is Wrong on China

China

Hedge fund titan, Jim Chanos, is well known for his extremely bearish views on China. He says that the cracks are spreading on the façade, real estate sales are falling, and that the economic engine is starting to sputter. This will be bad news for the rest of us, as China imports 50%-80% of the world’s commodities. Commodity exporting countries will be especially hard hit, … [Read more...]

India is Catching Up With China

Rickshaw

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 36 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate. My friends at the International Monetary … [Read more...]

India is Catching Up With China

Rickshaw

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 36 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate. My friends at the International Monetary Fund … [Read more...]

How US Job Losses Will End

Vietnam Flag

I was researching comparative Asian wage data the other day and was astounded with what I found. Textile workers earn $2.99 an hour in India (PIN), $1.84 in China (FXI), and $0.49 in Vietnam (VNM). This is an 18 fold increase in labor costs from ten cents an hour since Chinese industrialization launched in 1978. This compares to the $8 an hour our much abused illegals get at … [Read more...]

India vs. China

Rickshaw

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 35 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China’s white hot growth rate. My friends at the International Monetary Fund issued a … [Read more...]

The Future of Consumer Spending?

World Middle Class

As part of my never ending campaign to get you to move more money into emerging markets, please take a look at the chart below from Goldman Sachs. It shows that the global middle class will rise from 1.8 billion today to 4 billion by 2040, with the overwhelming portion of the increase occurring in emerging markets. The chart defines middle class as those earning between … [Read more...]

The China View from 30,000 Feet

DBA 6-12-13

I have long sat beside the table of McKinsey & Co., the best management consulting company in Asia, hoping to catch some crumbs of wisdom. So, I jumped at the chance to have breakfast with Shanghai based Worldwide Managing Director, Dominic Barton, when he passed through San Francisco visiting clients. These are usually sedentary affairs, but Dominic spit out fascinating … [Read more...]

Why Jim Chanos is Wrong on China

China

Hedge fund titan, Jim Chanos, is well known for his extremely bearish views on China. He says that the cracks are spreading on the façade, real estate sales are falling, and that the economic engine is starting to sputter. This will be bad news for the rest of us, as China imports 50%-80% of the world’s commodities. Commodity exporting countries will be especially hard hit, … [Read more...]

Five Stocks to Buy for the Second Half

Market Pit

Take a look at the chart below for the S&P 500, and it is clear that we are at the top, of a top, of a top. How much new stock do you want to buy here? Not much. Virtually every technical trading service I follow, including my own, is now flashing distressed warning signals. Maybe we really were supposed to “Sell in May and go away.” All RSI’s are through the roof. We … [Read more...]

China’s View of China

China - Parade

I ran into Minxin Pei, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who imparted to me some iconoclastic, out of consensus views on China’s position in the world today. He thinks that power is not shifting from West to East; Asia is just lifting itself off the mat, with per capita GDP at $5,800, compared to $48,000 in the US. We are simply moving from a … [Read more...]

Rampant Wage Inflation Strikes China

Chinese Men

I rely on hundreds of 'moles' around the world whose job it is to watch a single, but important indicator for the world economy. One of them checks for me the want ads in the manufacturing mega city of Shenzhen, China, and what he told me last week was alarming. Wage demands by Chinese workers have been skyrocketing this year. The biggest increases have been at the low end … [Read more...]

How U.S. Job Losses Will End

vietnam

I was researching comparative Asian wage data the other day and was astounded with what I found. Textile workers earn $2.99 an hour in India (PIN), $1.84 in China (FXI), and $0.49 in Vietnam (VNM). This is an 18-fold increase in labor costs from $0.10 an-hour since Chinese industrialization launched in 1978. This compares to the $8 an hour our much abused illegals get at … [Read more...]

The Next China Boom

Great-Wall-China-4

The call was scratchy and barely audible. I was instructed to not mention any names. I should only use the prearranged code words when talking about political parties. You never know when the phones in China are tapped. I was just about to get a heads up that the People’s Bank of China was going to lower interest rates for the first time in four years. Of course, we knew … [Read more...]

The Weekly Jobless Claims Blockbuster

BlackSwan2

Traders were taken aback this morning when the Department of Labor announced a 50,000 drop in weekly jobless claims to 352,000. The street had been expecting a decline of only 19,000. It was the lowest report in almost three years, and the sharpest weekly decline in seven years. I tell people that, if stranded on a desert island, this is the one weekly report I would want to … [Read more...]

China’s Rate Cut is a Game Changer

untitled-1

For the first time in three years, China (FXI) has cut its prime lending rate by 50 basis points. The timing caught many analysts by surprise, as such move was not expected until the lunar new year in early February. Perhaps recent data showing collapsing exports prompted the Mandarins in Beijing to hurriedly move up the timetable. The Middle Kingdom’s action is one of the … [Read more...]