End of the Commodity Super Cycle

Gold Coins

When the Trade Alerts quit working. I stop sending them out. That’s my trading strategy right now. It’s as simple as that. So when I received a dozen emails this morning asking if it is time to double up on Linn Energy (LINE), I shot back “Not yet!” There is no point until oil puts in a convincing bottom, and that may be 2015 business. Traders have been watching in complete … [Read more...]

2014 Annual Asset Class Review

JT at work

I am writing this report from a first class sleeping cabin on Amtrak’s California Zephyr. We are now pulling away from Chicago’s Union Station, leaving its hurried commuters, buskers, panhandlers, and majestic great halls behind. I am headed for Emeryville, California, just across the bay from San Francisco. That gives me only 56 hours to complete this report. I tip my porter, … [Read more...]

How Much to Go With Palladium?

Canadian Coin

Palladium has caught absolutely on fire in recent months. The ETF (PALL) for the hedge fund darling has soared by 34% since the September low, and shows no sign of slowing. The CFTC announced that speculative positions in palladium futures leapt 12% last week to an all time high. Also known as the ‘poor man’s platinum,’ demand for palladium for jewelry in China has been … [Read more...]

Taking Ford Out for a Spin

Mustang

I have been trying to buy this stock for a month. Not because I like their pedestrian cars (except the new, muscular, retro Mustang), but because it is one of the great turnaround stories in business history. Today’s earnings announcement gives us that window. It delivered over $3 billion in profits during Q4, 2012. But the market decided to focus instead on the expectation … [Read more...]