2015 Annual Asset Class Review


I am once again writing this report from a first class sleeping cabin on Amtrak’s California Zephyr. By day, I have two comfortable seats facing each other next to a broad window. At night, they fold into bunk beds, a single and a double. There is a shower, but only Houdini could get in and out of it. We are now pulling away from Chicago’s Union Station, leaving its hurried … [Read more...]

End of the Commodity Super Cycle

Gold Coins

When the Trade Alerts quit working. I stop sending them out. That’s my trading strategy right now. It’s as simple as that. So when I received a dozen emails this morning asking if it is time to double up on Linn Energy (LINE), I shot back “Not yet!” There is no point until oil puts in a convincing bottom, and that may be 2015 business. Traders have been watching in complete … [Read more...]

How Much to Go With Palladium?

Canadian Coin

Palladium has caught absolutely on fire in recent months. The ETF (PALL) for the hedge fund darling has soared by 34% since the September low, and shows no sign of slowing. The CFTC announced that speculative positions in palladium futures leapt 12% last week to an all time high. Also known as the ‘poor man’s platinum,’ demand for palladium for jewelry in China has been … [Read more...]

Taking Ford Out for a Spin


I have been trying to buy this stock for a month. Not because I like their pedestrian cars (except the new, muscular, retro Mustang), but because it is one of the great turnaround stories in business history. Today’s earnings announcement gives us that window. It delivered over $3 billion in profits during Q4, 2012. But the market decided to focus instead on the expectation … [Read more...]